Well that is the case, isn't it? I fear you are, as many people do, confusing correlation and causation. FBI data shows definite correlation between the population of certain ethnic groups and the murder rate in a state. If I discover that more people from one of those groups are moving to the state should I go to the chief of police and tell him is going to need to hire x more homicide detectives?And a purist like A.J. (who stamps out error at the level of less than 1% to 2%) will likely reject that color can validly be used at all due to its poor 'R' value of correlation inevitably leading to errors far more massive than 1% to 2%.
Obviously. No one has shown that color is a good predictor of malt properties and until someone does, then we will have to accept it.This should be inevitably true for all of us as well,
No it doesn't. What's the point here?so it clearly does not involve seeing beyond what is already known,
but if in fact malt color is to be completely left out of the picture (as A.J. stated above for his graph),[/QUOTE] No, A.J. didn't state that for his graph. He didn't sort or designate his data by color when he made it. It's implication is, of course, that pHDI by itself is going to be a bad predictor of acidity just as the number of Rongovians moving to Itsiburg is not likely to be a good predictor of the murder rate. But when the question about color was asked A.J. opined that one might well find that were the points in sufficient number and designated by color that there one might find tighter correlations among the groups. It seems that A.J.'s posts aren't being read.
I'm afraid I can't see any point here at all. In fact I can't even figure out what you are trying to say.then all software intended for the un-testing and unawares masses must be invalidated thereby, regardless of its generation or complexity. This is the essential point that I'm making.
The man has shown no evidence of delusion. He has merely recognized that the offering of brewing related functions in an Excel Add In has great potential to simplify spreadsheet preparation by anyone and that elimination of the computational errors inherent in Gen I programs is of potential benefit to the users of such spreadsheets. I understand, being of the same ethnic background as he, how he might get a little carried away by the genius bit.The point that coders such as yourself are deluding everyone (including yourselves) into somehow believing that such genius will in fact hit a target that no one has ever seen before. If color is involved, then massive error potential (and reality) is inevitable. And in the real world pH targets will be missed.
That's not an averaging line. It's a LLS fit to the data. Should it go through the center of one of the circles? I can make it go through one if you like but it wouldn't be LS any more.Did you notice that A.J.'s averaging line passes through the center-line data for exactly none of the malts he tested on a color free (color independent) basis?
Statements like this only make it clear that you do not understand what we are trying to do here. Until you do I am afraid I cannot be of much help.Therefore even if color is stamped out of the picture entirely by introducing and replacing color by "averaging" data for hundreds of past tested malts, correlation to real world of today malts will be found to be faulty if one does not "properly and validly" test every malt every time it is purchased....
You can't unless testing by someone has revealed that something or things you know (such as type, maltster, cultivar, batch number) lets you look up pHDI, a1, a2 and a3.And if malts can have anywhere from 35 to 60+ mEq/Kg acidity for a DI_pH of 4.7, then how can you know that your roughly 300-350L roasted malt lot will be 35 or 60+ (or anywhere inbetween) acidic without independently testing it (beyond simply taking a DI_pH)....
Correct.So not only is color an invalid criteria, but so also is DI_pH alone,
What is it that is being averaged here?and so also will be the averaging of a multiplicity of actual "past" data points.
Perhaps the most important thing you are missing is that no model is of any worth unless it is validated against testing. The more accurate the tests, of course, the better the model. The best results would come from a maltsters or brewers lab. No measurements no, models.Validity at the A.J. level of approaching zero error can only come from testing at a lab control level of expertise,
That's true. Thus to get reliable malt data we must rely on the few of us that are willing to undertake the measurement protocols. No measurements, no models.and real world brewers this side of breweries will not be likely to undertake this, or even understand how to undertake it properly if they do decide to undertake it.
There is an art to pH measurement and it takes experience to acquire it. The interesting thing is that you will know when you have acquired it. A brewer taking his Hach pHPro+ out of the box doesn't have it. Joe Walts took all his measurements with a pH Pro+ so it is quite possible for anyone who wants to to do it.Most of us can't even trust our own pH meter readings, let alone do and then trust titration readings.
True. That's why you have to rely on others to do the measurements. No measurements, no model. But this has nothing to do with GenI, GenII. In either case you have to model the malt and that has to be done by measurement. No measurement, no model. How can you possibly expect to predict the pH of a mash if you have made no measurements on the malts? The GenII software accepts any model.So if the criteria of excellence requires both a precise DI_pH meter reading, and a then a tri-fold set of titration readings, and we can't even believe our own pH meters, then most of us are dead in the water even if we do intend to test....
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