PPR Fantasy Football

[betarhoalphadelta]

Well, I had a whole thing planned since Sunday afternoon about how fantasy football is a cruel, cruel bitch, and there are so many horrible ways to lose. Such as two years ago, in the championship matchup, with it coming down to MNF... Down 10 points with Stefon Diggs vs Ja'Maar Chase. Expecting an epic battle. Diggs gets half of those 10 points on the opening drive, Cinci takes over and... Damar Hamlin nearly dies on the field. Game stopped, then cancelled, then I lose. A tragic way to lose, but thankfully could have been worse.

I thought this week would be defined not as tragic, but as moronic. Jonathan Taylor on a breakaway 41-yard touchdown run. Untouched the entire way. Increasing my lead and my projected lead at the time. But wait! He dropped the ball before he crossed, like an idiot! So take away the 6 points for the TD, take away the 0.1 point for the final yard of the run, deduct a point for the fumble, then deduct two more points because it counts as a lost fumble. A 9.1 point swing, at which point I resigned myself to the fact that I was going to lose, and it was going to be by less than 9.1 points, and that I would FOREVER hold a grudge against Jonathan Taylor for his stupidity...

...and then I lost by 9.98 points, so I guess it didn't matter

Congratulations to the Milwaukee Muggers on advancing to the Semifinals!

On the other side of the bracket, Birds of War continued their run in the defeat of Beer is my Patronus. I must say, this one finished closer than projected, as Patronus was led by a stellar 40+ point performance from Baker Mayfield, while the Birds saw less than 20 from Tua Tagovialoa.

But the Birds had a lot of players in double digits while Patronus did not, so even with good performances from Rashod Bateman and Nico Collins, Patronus couldn't finish the job and take out the league's high scorer.

That said, I was watching the score all weekend and it was a lot more of a nailbiter for both teams, I'm sure.

Congratulations to Birds of War on advancing!

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

For this week, we have two pretty compelling matchups.

• #4 seed Birds of War vs #1 seed Bar Flies: As I mentioned before the season, these two rosters were ones I highlighted as being very strong, dangerous teams, and they did not disappoint. Birds of War was the highest scoring team in the league, and Bar Flies spent most of the season in the top 2-3, although the Muggers snuck in with a >200 point week and pushed Bar Flies to 4th in the final week of the regular season. Bar Flies finished in sole first place at 11-3 and thus took the #1 seed and first round bye, while the Birds are now riding an 8 game win streak. This could be an interesting QB battle, as Jalen Hurts is Jalen Hurts, but he's dealing with a broken finger on his non-throwing hand. That said, it didn't stop him from putting up 39.60 points on Sunday, so it remains to be seen whether it will affect him. On the other side, despite my praise for the Birds' roster, QB is possibly their weakest position. Tua has been up and down since his return from injury, so you don't know which Tua you'll get if he's in the roster. Also on the roster are Geno Smith, who's thrown for tons of yards and not many TDs, and Jameis Winston, who is going to throw a lot of passes, but you never know which team will catch them. So I think there's a good chance this matchup comes down to how many points the Birds of War get from whichever QB plays for them.
• #6 seed Milwaukee Muggers vs #2 seed Brockstars: These two teams have been interesting all year. In many ways, they are opposites. The Milwaukee Muggers battled all season. They finished the season 3rd in points scored, but needed to win all the way in week 14 just to squeak into the final playoff spot. The Brockstars, on the other hand, were all the way down in 8th in points scored, but by virtue of being 11th in points against, ended up with a lot of wins against teams who had down weeks. As mentioned Brockstars secured the #2 seed and first round by, by virtue of being 2-0 H2H against Birds of War and IPA/Blonde. Those teams, the #1 and #2 scoring teams in the league, averaged 118.97 points in those two matchups, while those teams averaged 152.81 points overall this season. So what looks here like it would be a fairly uneven matchup with a team that secured the #2 seed and had a two game advantage in the regular season might be quite the squeaker. A key factor in this matchup is the Detroit running backs. The Muggers just lost David Montgomery for the season, who was in the starting lineup in the first round playoff win. That obviously hurts the Muggers, but it's a double whammy as the Brockstars have Jahmyr Gibbs, who will likely benefit from not splitting the workload with David Montgomery. That said, this is one of those matchups that could go either way. The Muggers have firepower, as Sam Darnold threw for 5 TDs two weeks ago and Ja'Maar Chase can drop 40 on command. However, the Brockstars have Justin Jefferson, which may negate some of Darnold's scoring if TD passes go his way. Of course, if those TD passes go to Jordan Addison, then it's a stack of points for the Muggers. Going to be an interesting Sunday afternoon/evening for these two managers, as Minnesota plays in the 3:05 CT / 1:05 PT time slot!

Good luck to all!

 

[VirginiaHops1]

Fun season boys. I had high hopes for my team early on but busts(Tyreek, Etienne) and injuries(Godwin, Higgins, others) did me in. Good luck to the teams in the semifinals. Already looking forward to next year

Also, major props to Beta for the very engaging commentary...

 

[troglodytes]

As of the time it was written, it seemed like it might be a QB battle. However after today's announcements, I'm think GB defense is going to beat me single handedly.

 

[gromitdj]

I can’t believe the thought and effort @betarhoalphadelta puts into his breakdowns. I always enjoyed reading them. It’s been fun, as always. Good luck to all!

 

[TallDan]

158 points would be a solid effort against a normal opponent. 220+ points is something else. Nice win and good luck in the finals.

 

[troglodytes]

The most impressive part of the 220+ points is there was no crazy 60 point player. Just a great performance by the entire team.

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

Yep. I was at the golf course having a beer after my round and on one of the TD's I see a highlight of a long Saquon TD run and the blurb underneath said "2nd today". Then later I was watching at home and on the stats ticker under the screen I see JT had 3 TDs.

And I thought to myself "huh... Sure they do it THIS week after I'm eliminated!"

And then I realize I would've scored 186 and still lost by 40 points

That 226 is the highest I've seen since joining this league. What a performance!

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

Well, the championship is set!

I said that Bar Flies vs Birds of War might come down to the QB, and I was almost right... But in a different way. Bar Flies nearly lost this matchup and quite honestly it would have been more than fair to say that Jalen Hurts going down injured after scoring a mere 5.04 was the reason. Going into MNF, Birds of War had the lead and Josh Jacobs yet to play, while Bar Flies had the Packers kicker and DST. Birds of War got 20 out of Jacobs, and I thought that would be enough... But Brandon McManus put up 12, and the Packers DST put up 19 in a shutout, and that was enough for the #1 seed Bar Flies to take it and advance.

On the other side, we've obviously already talked about it... The Milwaukee Muggers can't be completely unhappy with 158.84 points. That's a higher point total than any team in the league's season average, and thus would have beaten most teams, most weeks. But the Brockstars went thermonuclear, scoring 226.72(!) a number that I believe would have beaten all teams I've ever seen, in any league, in any week, in any year I've done fantasy football. The only roster spot not in double digits was the DST, and only two more were even in the teens.

So we have a championship:

#1 Bar Flies vs #2 Brockstars: Yep, we have a #1 seed vs #2 seed matchup here. The Bar Flies had sole possession of the top spot while the Brockstars had the tiebreaker in a three-way tie for #2. Both got the first round bye to avoid potentially slipping up, and then both took care of business in the semifinals. And now they face off for all the marbles beer. Injuries will definitely be a concern here, as Jalen Hurts is in the concussion protocol for the Bar Flies, while Tank Dell was sadly lost for the season with a knee injury for the Brockstars. With Jalen Hurts scheduled to play Sunday after 12 NFL teams will have already played, if this comes down to a game time decision, that limits the number of available and worthwhile replacements. For the Brockstars, a lot will hinge on the Detroit @ San Francisco matchup on Monday night. With three Lions and Brock Purdy on their roster, who combined for >100 points this past week, can they repeat? It's likely that Bar Flies, who will already be done, will go into Monday Night Football with a lead, and both teams will be watching with bated breath to see what those four players do.

Either way, it should be an exciting week of football! With an early start tomorrow, we'll have games on 5 of 6 straight days, with potentially players from this matchup being started on every single one of those days.

Enjoy, and Merry Christmas everyone!

 

[Chorgey]

Thanks to @betarhoalphadelta for these well written (and thought out) breakdowns. I honestly don't know where you find the time to do them, but it's definitely appreciated! Merry Christmas!

 

[gromitdj]

It’s been a great run…. was fun. There is always next year….

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

It’s been a great run…. was fun. There is always next year….

Second place is still in the money beer. Second place doesn't have to ship, and receives from one...

That said, crazy things happen in fantasy football. Tomorrow could be some insane shootout where Brock throws for 5 TDs and all of the Detroit TDs go to your 3 players...

 

[gromitdj]

I’ll hold out (some) hope!

 

[Chorgey]

Second place is still in the money beer. Second place doesn't have to ship, and receives from one...

That said, crazy things happen in fantasy football. Tomorrow could be some insane shootout where Brock throws for 5 TDs and all of the Detroit TDs go to your 3 players...

I have definitely seen some crazy stuff in Fantasy Football. Nothing surprises me.

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

Alright. So it looks like the Brockstars know what they need. A combined 114.67 points from Brock Purdy, Jahmyr Gibbs, Jameson Williams, and Sam LaPorta.

Is that impossible? It might seem so, but last week in the 226 point explosion, those 4 players combined for about 105 points. So I'd call this one unlikely, but not impossible... The O/U on this game is 50.5 points, so Vegas is expecting some scoring.

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

Halftime... 5 TD's have been scored. Two passing and one rushing for Purdy. Two receiving for Williams. More than half of the Brockstars' deficit has been erased...

Getting interesting!

 

[Chorgey]

Halftime... 5 TD's have been scored. Two passing and one rushing for Purdy. Two receiving for Williams. More than half of the Brockstars' deficit has been erased...

Getting interesting!

I’ll say it again..

I have definitely seen some crazy stuff in Fantasy Football. Nothing surprises me.

 

[gromitdj]

I can’t believe how stressful this is!

 

[Chorgey]

I can’t believe how stressful this is!

Tell me about it. I’m chomping at the bit

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

4.16 points as Purdy takes over on O...

 

[Spundit]

Crazy

4.16 points as Purdy takes over on O...

Crazy

 

[gromitdj]

Purdy throws in the towel when I only need 1 point out of him? The fix is in!

What a week!

 

[Chorgey]

What a week!

Time to get a beer, I am mentally spent!
That was one helluva game Donnie!

I really thought that you were going to take it!

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

Just...

 

[TallDan]

Wow. Just wow.

Nice down to the wire superbowl!

 

[gromitdj]

Time for a beer indeed. That was crazy. You put together a great team.

 

[Chorgey]

Time for a beer indeed. That was crazy. You put together a great team.

Thanks. You were one great opponent with a stacked team. It was one of (if not the closest) superbowls that I have ever seen

 

[troglodytes]

It's obvious the best two teams made the championship. That was a great game! Congrats @Chorgey

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

How in the world do I offer a write-up worthy of such a thrilling championship? Oh well, it's the plight of a writer to attempt to rise to the occasion, I guess...

I mentioned the cruel, cruel bitch that is fantasy football. Well, she made an appearance. The Brockstars were cooked. I mean, down 114.66 points going into Monday Night Football? That's a nearly impossible thing to make up.

A lot of football games don't feature 7 touchdowns total. And yet, all of the first 7 touchdowns in the game went through their players. 3 passing TDs and one rushing for Brock Purdy, two receiving touchdowns for Jameson Williams, and a receiving TD for Sam LaPorta. And then in the fourth quarter, Jahmyr Gibbs added a 30-yard rushing TD to put the Lions up 12 and give the ball back to the 49ers with just under 3 minutes left in the game, and with the Brockstars now down only 4.16 points.

With the clock and the score, that meant field goals and no punts weren't going to get it done. And it also meant throwing the ball. Which means it all came down to Brock Purdy. The only things likely to stop the 49ers would be a turnover (and Purdy had already thrown two picks) or a turnover on downs. But absent those two things, 4.16 points, especially in a 0.5 point per completion scoring system, seemed doable. 4.16 points would be almost a shoo-in even if the 49ers scored and didn't get the onside kick.

Purdy nearly did it. The Brockstars were within a point and driving. And then Purdy got sacked. And not only did he get sacked, but the SECOND player to hit him, when he was already down, hit him somewhere in the hand or wrist and he left the field. Joshua Dobbs came in and you could see Purdy on the sidelines trying to test his throwing motion, and then you just saw him shake his head "no", and it was over.

The cruel, cruel bitch had stepped in. At that point no matter what Dobbs did, you knew the Lions would just kneel down if they got the ball back, so there would be no opportunity for the Brockstars to increase their total. And thus what would have probably been the most epic comeback I've ever seen in a fantasy football championship became almost the most epic comeback I've ever seen.

But wait... The story doesn't just involve Monday Night Football. I would remiss not to talk about our new champion, the Bar Flies. You can't have an epic comeback if you don't find yourself in a hole, and with 179.16 points put up before Monday Night Football even started, the Bar Flies dug a giant pit for the Brockstars.

Led by Bo Nix with 34.86 points--and who in the preseason thought "Bo Nix leading a team to the fantasy championship" was going to be a thing?--and with >20 from Derrick Henry, Mike Evans, and Brian Thomas Jr, the Bar Flies put up a big number for the Brockstars to chase. Even the kicker and DST were in double digits.

And the Bar Flies getting here was no fluke. I think they've been the wire-to-wire leader in the league all season after starting the year 4-1. I think at worst they've been tied for first a few times, but never worse than that. And of course they were the first team I mentioned in "teams I don't want to face week to week" because their roster was stacked from day 1. They certainly earned the #1 seed, the first round playoff bye, and were a truly worthy champion.

So after 17 weeks, we have our champion. Congrats to @Chorgey and the Bar Flies! You have earned every bit of beer that you will receive!

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

In the third place game, Birds of War ( @troglodytes ) has defeated the Milwaukee Muggers ( @TallDan ), earning the right to decide who you want to ship to.

@Chorgey is listed in the profile as South Jersey, and I know @gromitdj lives out here in Orange County CA.

Let us know your preference, Birds!

 

[troglodytes]

With UPS costs these days I think I'll go with shipping to NJ, so @Chorgey, let me know if you have any requests or styles you'd prefer.

 

[Chorgey]

I'll start conversations soon with my address. I like most styles of beer, with the exception of Sours.

Please let me know if I have all of the correct usernames matched up with the team names.

@gromitdj (BrockStars) does not ship beer (second place - receives from @TallDan)
@TallDan (Milwaukee Muggers) (third place - ships to @gromitdj)
@troglodytes (Birds of War)
@betarhoalphadelta (Mr IPA and Mrs Blonde)
@Spundit (Beer is my Patronus)
@TBC (Big Gulps)
@VirginiaHops1 (Prestige Worldwide)
@Thorrak (Hop to it)
@TheDudeLebowski (Coneheads)
@lupulinaddict (Fill my Kupp)
@pshankstar (Finger Lakes Fury)

 

[Chorgey]

Just received from @Thorrak. Well packed in a whale pod. Much appreciated! Looking forward to enjoying these!

 

[Chorgey]

Thank you @TBC for the variety of brews from Victory, Troegs and Lancaster Brewing. Victory's Tastykake Kandy Kake is one that I'm going to try tonight (it's my favorite Tastykake).

 

[TBC]

Thank you @TBC for the variety of brews from Victory, Troegs and Lancaster Brewing. Victory's Tastykake Kandy Kake is one that I'm going to try tonight (it's my favorite Tastykake).

View attachment 867990

Congrats! That was fast next day shipping. Maybe I should have just delivered it. Enjoy.

 

[Chorgey]

Thank you @pshankstar for the cleverly packaged shipment. It's going to be difficult deciding which beer to try first.

 

[pshankstar]

Thank you @pshankstar for the cleverly packaged shipment. It's going to be difficult deciding which beer to try first.

View attachment 868094

I say go with the Copper Leaf crowler.
Cheers bud!

 

[Chorgey]

Thank you @troglodytes for the great selection of beers. There's no doubt that I will enjoy these!

 

[Chorgey]

Thank you @VirginiaHops1 for the nice assortment of IPAs. Looking forward to them!
The one can reminds me of the Klaatu song, "Juicy Luicy"

 

[Chorgey]

@betarhoalphadelta hinted that there was a certain something in the box that he shipped out and he nailed it! You'll have to let us know how you obtained it. Thank you, much appreciated!