PPR Fantasy Football

[betarhoalphadelta]

My streak might end this week!!!
Right now it predicts a narrow victory but we all know those projections mean $h1t.

But one can hope, right?

Just might be VERY tight! And if I take a lead [as projected], we won't really know until tomorrow when Mixon plays.

 

[gromitdj]

…If I win the championship, and despite putting in your best effort you finish the regular season at 0-14, I will send you beer. I figure at that point I'll be getting beer from 9 different teams, and am not required to send any, so I wouldn't mind rewarding such a hapless achievement. Will anyone else join me? If you end up the champ and the Fury keeps fighting but finishes 0-14, will you pledge to send beer?

I can definitely join you here.

And fantastic write up, as usual!

 

[pshankstar]

Just might be VERY tight! And if I take a lead [as projected], we won't really know until tomorrow when Mixon plays.

Nixon needs a monster game for me to win now.

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

Nixon needs a monster game for me to win now.

Nixon? Been to his presidential library. Not sure he's gonna put up good numbers tonight, being dead and all tho

That said, while Mixon hasn't yet had a >30.2 point game this year, he's scored double-digits in all games except the one he left due to injury, and has scored in the 20s four times... Three of those in the upper 20s. So in a game where the Texans should shut down the Dallas offense, and likely be in positive (run-friendly) game script, I'm not exactly going to chalk this up as a win until the beautiful-at-any-size-lady starts caterwauling.

Elsewhere, Bar Flies has already punched their ticket to 9 wins, and Brockstars is projected to do so handily. With Muggers losing (to Bar Flies), this now means that 9 wins will be a lock. Big Gulps is looking like they're going to fall tonight according to projections (and then being unable to achieve 9 wins). But even if Big Gulps were to win that means that as they play the Muggers in a few weeks, it would be impossible for BOTH teams to get to 9. So now there are a maximum of 6 teams that can reach 9 wins.

9 wins is now a LOCK for the playoffs, which includes Bar Flies and [likely] Brockstars.

 

[troglodytes]

Here's hoping Houston D scores 14 points and it's run heavy all night, then.

I've got to claw back after Burrow, Amon Ra, and...Will Dissly killed me this week.

 

[TallDan]

Nixon needs a monster game for me to win now.

Well, he’s got half of a monster so far!

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

Well that sucked. But congrats @pshankstar !

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

Here's hoping Houston D scores 14 points and it's run heavy all night, then.

I've got to claw back after Burrow, Amon Ra, and...Will Dissly killed me this week.

In my other league, I was up 26 against the HOU DST, and up 30.2 here against Mixon. Lost both.

 

[troglodytes]

That's a double whammy. Don't worry the fantasy football karma seems to be swinging wildly these days.

 

[pshankstar]

Well that sucked. But congrats @pshankstar !

I can’t believe it! Finally pop the champagne like Zonka.

Good game!

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

Wow, what a Monday night! Four teams were done, with leads. Their four opponents all had Houston players (or DST), and needed to close the gap. What did they need? In order of biggest to smallest gap:

• fill my Kupp needed >32.02 from CJ Stroud
• Finger Lakes Fury needed >30.2 from Joe Mixon
• Birds of War needed >13.54 from the Houston DST
• Beer is my Patronus needed >4.04 from Nico Collins

Well, the game started off with a big bang as CJ Stroud hit Nico Collins with a 77 yard passing TD on the opening play, pushing Collins over the edge for Patronus with 14.7 points, and Stroud opening the game with 7.58 points to give Kupp a solid start... BUT WAIT! The play is called back due to ineligible man downfield! Take them both back to zero!

Then it became the Joe Mixon show, as Mixon scores two rushing touchdowns in the first quarter to cut Mr IPA & Mrs Blonde's lead over Finger Lakes Fury to a mere 6 points. Then... It settled down. The Texans only managed field goals for the next two quarters. Collins did move Patronus ahead of Big Gulps by about mid-game, but Stroud was only mildly chipping away, Mixon disappeared, and the Houston defense wasn't giving up much, but wasn't getting much either.

But as the fourth quarter started, the Houston defense forced two fumbles on the same play(!), recovering the second one in a scoop and score for the TD that put Birds of War ahead with 1231 to play. And they continued to hold Dallas scoreless, not giving any of it back. Then with 3:16 remaining, Mixon scored his third TD of the game on a 1 yard plunge, pushing Finger Lakes Fury off the winless column and breaking the streak.

So 3 of the 4 teams came back, two of them only managing to do so in the final quarter of play. That was exciting!

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

Now, onto the more important things... What does this mean for the league?

Locks: We now have a playoff lock. Both the Bar Flies and the Brockstars have reached 9 wins, and no more than 6 teams can mathematically get to 9 wins. Therefore, both teams are locks and now playing for seeding. There is a trio of teams at 7-4 and the Muggers at 6-5, who can also get to 9 wins. Although we have no teams at 8 wins, 8 wins would not currently be a lock, as Big Gulps can go 3-0 to get to 8 wins without causing any conflicts that would stop the teams ahead of getting to 9 wins, but it would require beating the Muggers in week 14 and the Muggers winning both of their next two games, which is not easy as they face the 9-2 Brockstars this week and the top-scoring team in the league, Birds of War, next week. A Muggers or Big Gulps loss at any time in the next two weeks makes 8 wins a lock.

First Round Bye: We're now getting enough clarity to start talking about it. Bar Flies and Brockstars have a 2 game lead over the trifecta at 7-4 (Birds of War, IPA/Blonde, Patronus). They face each other in week 13, so at least one is guaranteed to make it to 10 wins. One of IPA/Blonde and Patronus can't make it to 10 as they play this week, and in week 13 Birds of War and the Muggers face each other, which will either limit the Birds from the chance to make it to 10 wins, or limit the Muggers from their chance to make it to 9. So 10 wins might get into a tiebreaker (byebreaker? new fun word?) for the bye, and 9 is mathematically possible to be a tiebreaker for the second bye spot, but unlikely. 11 wins for either Bar Flies or Brockstars guarantees them a bye week.

The Playoff Run: We still have 11 teams mathematically in this, as the only eliminated team remains the Finger Lakes Fury. However, we're starting to get to the point where the teams at the bottom of the standings need a lot of help. fill my Kupp and the Coneheads are both at 3-8, and by going 3-0 AND the Muggers going winless AND no other team reaching 7 wins, could be in a tiebreaker at 6-8. However, this is complicated by the 6-5 Muggers and the 5-6 Big Gulps facing each other in week 14. This means that any win by Big Gulps in weeks 12 or 13 eliminate those 3-8 teams, as either the Muggers or Big Gulps would then be guaranteed to get to 7. And of course any win by Muggers eliminates them as well. The Coneheads are in slightly better shape at 4-7, but face Birds of War, Big Gulps, and IPA/Blonde in the next three weeks, which includes two of the top 3 scoring teams in the league. Getting to 7-7 will be tough. Big Gulps and Prestige Worldwide are both at 5-6, and I'd say both are still right in the thick of the race.

Game of the Week: Mr IPA and Mrs Blonde (7-4) vs Beer is my Patronus (7-4). At 7-4, neither team is a lock for the playoffs yet, but getting to 8 wins will most likely get a team in. Also important is that this matchup keeps the winner in the running for the first round bye. I suspect it will take 10 wins, and the loser of this matchup can only get to 9. Patronus has a fully intact squad with nobody on bye, while IPA/Blonde has one of their most surprising performers (Chase Brown) and a reliable PPR receiver (Khalil Shakir) on bye this week. The Jets DST are also inactive, but let's just say the underperforming Jets DST wasn't long for IPA/Blonde's roster either way... This is clearly a matchup dominated on paper by the running backs, as Patronus is rolling out a healthy CMC and Seattle's bellcow KW3, while IPA/Blonde is hoping Saquon does Saquon things and JT bounces back from a pedestrian outing against the Jets. This one might come down to Monday Night Football, as both teams have receivers going Monday and IPA/Blonde could potentially start a QB Monday. So it could make for another stressful Monday for both teams...

Honorable Mention: Brockstars (9-2) take on the Milwaukee Muggers (6-5). At 6 wins, with a tough schedule remaining, every single week presents an important opportunity for the Muggers. The Muggers (1555.80) have slightly outscored the Brockstars (1545.46) this year, so despite being three games back, this is a lot closer on paper than one might assume. That said, this is going to be a tough week for the Muggers, with Ja'Maar Chase and Kyle Pitts both on bye weeks. For the Brockstars, a win gets them closer to securing the all-important bye week. The Brockstars have some bye week issue with James Cook being inactive this week, and being relatively thin in the roster at the RB position. The Brockstars will also have to monitor the status of their namesake, 49ers QB Brock Purdy, who is currently day-to-day with a shoulder injury. A key story line in this matchup will be at the RB position, as both teams roster Detroit running backs. Brockstars has the electric Jahmyr Gibbs, while the Muggers have the reliable David Montgomery. While Gibbs is usually the higher scorer, Montgomery gets a lot of looks near the goal line and this matchup could swing early in a 1 PM ET game depending on which RB does or doesn't find the end zone, and how many times.

Down the standings, fill my Kupp (3-8) takes on the Bar Flies (9-2) hoping to keep their playoff chances alive, while the Coneheads (4-7) take on the highest scoring team in the league, Birds of War (7-4) hoping to keep from putting their playoff chances on life support. Prestige Worldwide (5-6) is looking to boost their playoff hopes taking on the no longer winless Finger Lakes Fury (1-10) and keeping them from starting a new streak, while Big Gulps (5-6) is likewise looking to boost their playoff hopes while ending those of Hop To It (3-8).

Onward and upward!

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

Hey, it's been a fun week. For a league that basically doesn't trade, I was sent one trade offer and had a negotiation about another this week. I wasn't expecting either this season, so them happening in the same week was pretty cool.

Not going to say who or what, because there's no point to air out private discussions/negotiations. Neither one resulted in anything. The first was a fair offer but just didn't work right for me for roster construction reasons, and the second was an interesting negotiation but we were just in different places on player valuation and couldn't come together on a deal that made sense for both.

But it was fun nonetheless.

I highlight it for two reasons:

1. To encourage people to look at your own roster, where your roster holes are, and other rosters, and try to envision places you might make a deal that serve both sides. If you live and die based on the waiver wire, you're missing a huge opportunity to improve your roster. Trading is that opportunity. The players discussed in both weren't "end of the bench" guys. We're talking starter material.
2. To point out something regarding trading: it's a negotiation and there doesn't ever need to be a deal. I think a lot of people get anxious about trades, thinking that if someone sends a trade offer it creates almost an expectation that there MUST be a deal at the end of it... Whether it's the deal that's offered or whether the result of negotiation MUST be a deal. If your BATNA* is no deal at all, then no deal is what you end up with if you don't have a deal you like.

So while nothing came of this, I hope there are discussions out there between teams and people keep the idea alive. Different teams have different needs. Different managers have different priorities and evaluation of players. If you don't explore it, you might be missing out on opportunities.

Spoiler

BATNA: Best alternative to a negotiated agreement. This is the "what happens if I merely walk away?" question. In my case I'm very happy with my roster, so I don't feel pressured to make a deal. In my other league I had an issue where due to an injury, failing to make a deal during that week was an automatic forfeit for as many weeks as the player was injured because I couldn't field a fully active roster (a requirement in that league), so it meant that my options were limited and I had to fight for the best deal I could find. I had to take a deal I didn't love, but felt it was the best I could get.

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

Week 12 is in the books, only two regular season matchups remain!

Monday night was rather pedestrian. The only team that was in a rough situation was Bar Flies, down about 6 points heading into MNF. But it wasn't that concerning, given that Bar Flies had Derrick Henry left to play, oh and on top of that was already a playoff lock. Predictably, Henry put up enough to win, and Bar Flies moved into sole first place at 10-2.

Playoff Locks: No change. Bar Flies and Brockstars are the only teams who have locked. IPA/Blonde and Birds of War improved to 8-4, but that's not a lock. With wins this past week from Prestige Worldwide and Big Gulps, both teams have 8 wins in reach. And with Patronus and the Muggers at 7-5, either can reach as well. And the way the schedule plays out, all four teams can make it to 8 without stopping each other. So 8 wins could be as deep as the 8th place team, meaning no lock yet. That said, this week means a lot. If Prestige Worldwide falls to Patronus, and either the Muggers or Big Gulps lose, 8 wins becomes a lock.

First Round Bye: No lock here, either. Bar Flies is in the catbird seat at 10-2, but they play Brockstars (9-3) this week so that could move both teams to 10 wins. Bar Flies concludes against Birds of War, still the highest-scoring team in the league after a 184-point drubbing of the Coneheads. IPA/Blonde and Birds of War, both at 8-2, are the only other teams that can reach 10 wins. Birds of War has by far the tougher schedule, facing the 7-5 Muggers this week and 10-2 Bar Flies in week 14, while IPA/Blonde faces the 3-9 Hop to It this week before finishing up against the 4-8 Coneheads. But if there's a team in this league up for that challenge, it's probably the highest-scoring team.

The Playoff Race: Well, we're down to 8. With the Muggers improving to 7-5 in 6th place, that means that the Coneheads (4-8), Hop to It (3-9), and fill my Kupp (3-9) cannot mathematically reach the playoffs with only two weeks remaining. That said, Prestige Worldwide (6-6) and Big Gulps (6-6) won their matchups and each one faces one of the 7-5 teams and one of the eliminated teams in the next two weeks. So both will not only be favored to win in one matchup against an eliminated team, but can prevent a 7-5 team ahead of them from running away with it. We could be sitting there with four teams tied next week at 7-6, depending on how things fall...

Game of the Week: It's going to be Beer is my Patronus (7-5) vs Prestige Worldwide (6-6). This one is huge for the playoff push for both teams. And it's a nailbiter of a matchup, with the season-long scoring to date between these teams only having a 4-point separation. This could be an elimination week for Prestige, as a loss and either a Muggers or Big Gulps win, would eliminate them. That would have them at 6-7, with Patronus getting to 8 wins, and either a Muggers win (already at 8 wins with a win) or a Big Gulps win (getting Big Gulps to 7-6 who faces Muggers next week meaning one would be guaranteed 8 wins) would put Prestige into the consolation bracket. For Patronus, a loss isn't as damaging as they face the Finger Lakes Fury in week 14 so still have a chance to get to 8, but a win puts them in prime position as it would eliminate Prestige from any potential tiebreaker at 8 wins. Here in week 13 there are no NFL byes, so both teams have the full complement of players, but Prestige Worldwide is going to have to keep an eye on the injury reports, with Brian Robinson and Tyreek Hill both listed as questionable.

Alternate: The Birds of War (8-4) take on the Milwaukee Muggers (7-5). For the Birds of War, a win locks them them into the playoffs and gives them a big advantage in the race for a first round bye, regardless of what happens in the Bar Flies / Brockstars matchup. I.e. if the Bar Flies wins, Birds of War would be tied with Brockstars (and possibly IPA/Blonde) at 9-4 while Bar Flies would have secured the bye. If Brockstars wins, then Birds of War would need to defeat Bar Flies in week 14 for a tiebreaker (possibly also including Brockstars and possibly IPA/Blonde), and we'd have to look at who wins that. For the Milwaukee Muggers, a win ensures that at worst they're in a tiebreaker for the playoffs, and depending on the outcomes of other games, 8 wins might be a lock. Additionally, the last thing the Muggers wants is to be 7-6 in a potential playoff elimination game next week with a 7-6 Big Gulps squad. That said, against a team that has scored >114 more points over the course of the season about 10 per week, and is operating at full health with no bye weeks, it's going to be an uphill battle for the Muggers. But this is fantasy football, and anything can happen.

Alternate Alternate: Okay, I can't let it go without mentioning the #1 Bar Flies (10-2) vs the #2 Brockstars (9-3). It doesn't ascend to Game of the Week territory, because the outcome is not all that exciting to the rest of the league as it relates to the playoffs. However, this is a big step for both teams in the attempt to lock up that first round playoff bye. And it can be meaningful to those below--a win by the Brockstars and getting to 10 wins means that the 7-5 teams are mathematically excluded from the first round bye, and the 8-4 teams must go 2-0 (and have one or both of those 10 win teams lose in week 14) to even have a chance at a tiebreaker. A win by Bar Flies absolutely secures a first round playoff bye regardless of week 14--when they face the formidable Birds of War--and the possibilities for the 8-4 and 7-5 teams to share in a tie with a 9-5 Brockstars, or the 8-4 teams to get to 10 wins ahead of a 9-5 Brockstars, all open up. Much like the Muggers, it is going to be an uphill battle against a fully healthy Bar Flies team that has cumulatively outscored the Brockstars by 143 points this season, especially with Brock Purdy, Josh Downs, and Austin Ekeler all on the injury report at the moment.

I hope that all have a happy and healthy [and delicious] Thanksgiving. Given the holiday, NFL games on Thursday/Friday/Sunday/Monday, and college football games on Friday/Saturday, it should be a good weekend of feasting and viewing!

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

So, a Monday Night Football matchup between the Browns and the Broncos. What a snooze-fest, right? And honestly, not a lot on the line. Most matchups were done. Beer is my Patronus was down a decent amount to Prestige Worldwide with David Njoku left to play, but who's going to expect a tight end to make up that deficit? And the Milwaukee Muggers were down about 15 to Birds of War, but with only the kicker left to play.

And then... We got a shootout! Bo Nix and Famous Jameis lighting it up both ways, although a few times too many Jameis threw it to the wrong team, leading to a Browns loss. But, in the aftermath, we had some fantasy points to tally up. Well, enough of those throws from Jameis went to David Njoku, and not enough of them from Nix went to Devaughn Vele, and the result was a big playoff-clinching win (more on that in a moment) for Beer is my Patronus. Unfortunately for the Milwaukee Muggers, the Broncos scored a lot of touchdowns and not enough field goals, and Will Lutz fell short giving the Birds of War their 9th win.

As it stands, that Patronus win gave us a lot of clarity, that I was *not* expecting yesterday. I was getting ready to start figuring out a lot of tiebreakers, that are now no longer needed.

Oh, one more... Shout out to the Finger Lakes Fury who had the second-highest score of the week, and managed to notch a second win! Always helps when your QB gets a touchdown pass and a touchdown reception--on the same play!

Playoff Race: We know what we have. Five teams have locked. We have a head-to-head matchup this week for the 6th spot. Everyone else is eliminated. Bar Flies at 11-2 and Brockstars at 9-4 were already locked. IPA/Blonde and Birds of war improved to 9-4 and are locked. Yesterday before MNF I thought we'd have a 4-way tie at 7-6 for two spots. But with a win, Beer is my Patronus at 8-5 is now a lock. The only possible other teams that can reach 8 wins are the Milwaukee Muggers and Big Gulps, but they can't both do it as they are both 7-6 and play each other this week. And that means that Prestige Worldwide at 6-7 is eliminated with only one week to go and being two games back of the winner of the Muggers/Big Gulps matchup. And of course the winner of that game will be 8-6 while the loser will be 7-7 and in 7th place, so that final spot comes down to this week's final matchup.

First Round Bye: With 11 wins, Bar Flies has locked up the #1 seed and one of the two first round byes. Yesterday I had already figured out the tiebreakers between the three teams at 9 wins (Brockstars, IPA/Blonde, Birds of War), thinking the battle for the second bye only concerned those teams. But with Patronus' late comeback, it's now possible for us to have a 4-way tie at 9 wins and have to figure out that tiebreaker. So we have 5 scenarios:

1. All three of the 9-4 teams win, to get to 10-4.
2. Two of three 9-4 teams win and one loses.
3. One of three 9-4 teams win and two lose.
4. All three of the 9-4 teams lose, and Patronus loses.
5. All three of the 9-4 teams lose, and Patronus wins to join a 9-5 tie.

Brockstars has defeated both other 9-4 teams. IPA/Blonde has lost to Brockstars and defeated Birds of War. Birds of War is 0-2 against both of those teams.

This means that Brockstars wins all ties (between those three). If Brockstars wins this week, no matter Brockstars locks up the bye. IPA/Blonde locks up the the bye if they win and Brockstars loses, regardless of what happens to Birds of War. And Birds of War locks up the bye if they win and the other two lose. If all three lose, AND Patronus loses, Brockstars gets the bye.

Now, if the three teams lose AND Patronus wins, we have a different tiebreaker. Brockstars is 3-0 against these teams. IPA/Blonde is 2-2 against these teams (played Patronus twice, splitting the series). Birds of War is 1-2. And Patronus is 1-3. So in that case, Brockstars again wins the tiebreaker and secures the bye.

This was all easier to figure out as none of the teams play each other this week. Birds of War has the hardest matchup, facing Bar Flies. Brockstars faces fill my Kupp (3-10), IPA/Blonde faces Coneheads (4-9), and Patronus faces Finger Lakes Fury (2-11).

Game of the Week: Well, this one is obvious. Who has the most on the line? It's the Milwaukee Muggers (7-6) vs the Big Gulps (7-6)! Winner gets the final playoff spot. Loser heads to the consolation bracket. This one is going to require a little bit of bye week management, particularly for Big Gulps. Big Gulps will be missing Lamar Jackson and Courtland Sutton, while the Muggers will be down Zach Ertz and their kicker, Will Lutz. Clearly that's a tougher ask for Big Gulps, especially as the Muggers have Kyle Pitts on the roster at the TE position. But both teams will be looking to fill holes, and hoping they pick the right players to do so. All of the Big Gulps current roster completes play on Sunday, while the Muggers have Ja'Marr Chase going in Monday Night Football. Assuming the Big Gulps don't fill holes with Monday players, it could all come down to Chase. Which means that on Monday night, the Muggers might be watching for Chase to put a cherry on top of a victory, or watching Chase hoping he'll dig them out of a hole. Either way, it should be fun!

Last week before the playoffs! Enjoy!

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

...and the field is set!

It was a pretty chalky weekend for the teams that were already locked into the playoffs. The Brockstars and IPA/Blonde were up against eliminated teams and projected to win--and both did handily. That locked them into the 2 and 3 seeds, respectively, due to tiebreakers. With those two contests ending in wins, ultimately Birds of War was locked into either the 4th or 5th seed, win or lose. With a win that's the 4th seed, and Patronus' win over the Finger Lakes Fury secured the 5th seed.

So it all came down to see who the final slot would go to...

Game of the Week Recap: I said last week that it might come down to how well the Big Gulps managed the bye week, with Lamar Jackson and Courtland Sutton inactive. Well, picking Russell Wilson and Christian Watson to fill in were good selections and they worked out, but when your opponent clears the 200 point(!) mark, it's all over but the cryin'. Sam Darnold led the way for the Muggers with 5 TD passes and 47.58 points, pushing the match pretty much out of reach, and then Ja'Maar Chase put the exclamation point on last night in Monday Night Football with another 46.10 points with 2 receiving TDs and 177 yards through the air on top of 14 on the ground. It's always hard to lose, but at least Big Gulps can walk away from this one second-guessing themself, knowing that it didn't come down to a wrong start/sit decision or waiver wire pick--it was out of reach no matter what they did.

So now it's set:

• #3 seed IPA/Blonde faces the #6 seed Milwaukee Muggers: This is a sneaky matchup between the #2 and #3 highest scoring teams in the league in the regular season. Over 14 weeks, these teams are separated by an average of a mere 1.5 points scored per week. IPA/Blonde is going to have to hope that the Muggers shot their was in week 14 and return to Earth, while the Muggers hope the train keeps rollin'. The winner of this one faces Brockstars.
• #4 seed Birds of War faces the #5 seed Beer is my Patronus: Birds of War is the highest-scoring team in the league, and is coming off their own massive week at over 192 points, while Patronus had a bit of a down week scoring-wise despite defeating the Fury. That said, Patronus had several key players on bye last week, and they'll be returning as all NFL bye weeks are completed. The winner of this matchup faces Bar Flies.

Fantasy football is cruel, but we're a mere three weeks away from finding out who is going to secure the trophy, and the big beer haul this year!

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

Teams I don't want to face (not necessarily in order--not going that deep):

• Bar Flies - Chorgey: There's just so much damn upside on this roster. Breece is a beast. Derrick Henry in Baltimore with Lamar Jackson taking a lot of defensive attention might return to his old form. Jalen Hurts, Kincaid at TE, and the 'Boys DST. All solid. A lot of potential at WR--I think JSN will excel in his second year with a new OC, Rice might be Mahomes favorite non-TE passcatcher, and Mike Williams could be a big target for Aaron Rodgers throwing deep. Risks: If the WRs bust more than boom, it'll pull down the balance. And at RB, you have Jerome Ford who may be relegated to backup once Chubb is back, Allgeier is a backup, and Derrick Henry is old for an RB. I think Henry's body is more durable than most who face the RB age cliff, but maybe this is the year that Derrick Henry ceases to be Derrick Henry.
• Birds of War (fka as Bones are their Money): Holy WRs, Batman! Garrett Wilson and Puka Nacua are already a great start. But adding in Jaylen Waddle as part of that crazy Miami offense, Zay Flowers who along with Andrews is a favorite target of Lamar, and then you have guys like Josh Palmer who was a steal late in the draft as a proven contributor for Herbert, and Christian Watson because SOMEONE is going to have to catch the ball in GB. Ok, so he loaded up on WR. Then how did he get Josh Jacobs and Alvin Kamara? And Tony Pollard who is ostensibly going to be the starter in Ten, and a flier of a pick in Dobbins who we know will be in an offense that can run the ball. And Charbonnet who is one Walker injury away from being a bellcow. Then he managed to wait on QB and pick up Dak in the 8th. Dak is in a virtual tie for 3rd place in number of completions projected this year, and at 0.5 ppc, that's going to help--and his top WR just got PAID. Risks: Took a flier on a rookie TE which could be boom or bust. And that RB corps could be great--or could be terrible. AK is in decline on a bad team, JK is injury prone, Pollard could get passed by Spears (also potentially on a bad team), Charbonnet is a CLEAR #2 who won't have standalone value minus a Walker injury. Josh Jacobs is the only one I really trust there.

Honorable mention would be Big Gulps. Really solid at QB, TE, and WR. Questionable at RB though. I'd have skipped Tua and Freiermuth and tried to grab some lotto ticket RBs, or would have skipped Lamar in the 4th for a proven RB and hoped to get a QB later--I think Tua is going to be a great one but you can only start one.

Hmm... All I can say is that I nailed this, huh?

Okay, I can say one more thing... Obviously I have to take care of business myself in the fantasy playoffs, but I'm definitely glad these two teams are on the other side of the playoff bracket!

 

[TallDan]

No mention of the third 40pt player I had on the bench? Normally, that would feel pretty bad, but it’s crazy to complain about a 201pt win.

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

What a weird fantasy snoozefest of a Thursday night game. 12-6? No touchdowns at all?!

But oddly, nobody in the league was really hurt by the weird game at all. The Brockstars [naturally] have Brock Purdy, who was awful, and Prestige Worldwide has Cooper Kupp, who scored a number equal to John Blutarsky's GPA... 0.0

And yet, with both of those teams on bye, those lack of scores are irrelevant. And everyone else starting active players got decent, if not stellar, outputs.

I was halfway paying attention to the game--yesterday was my wife's birthday so I was cooking her requested dish for dinner (Tallarin Saltado con Carne), then we ate dinner, then I cleaned up dinner. So I was mainly just halfheartedly checking in on the score. And as I saw it being a FG battle, I was getting excited, as I have Jake Moody who was kicking FGs leading to a nice 8.0 points, and @TallDan was starting Kyren who obviously wasn't getting TDs. But then I checked the scoring and saw that despite not having a TD, Kyren went for >100 yds and 14.2 fantasy points... Which for both of us was almost exactly player projection, so it was largely a nothing-burger for our fantasy matchup.

For the other playoff participants, Birds of War started Puka Nacua who got a quite respectable 17.8 despite also not scoring a touchdown. Patronus had to roll the dice with Isaac Guarendo who came in with the questionable tag, got a full workload, and put up 11.5 points.

Looking at all four players across the two matchups, every single one of the players in question was within 1 point of their projection.

So a TNF game which ordinarily could have had a number of us either feeling good about going into the weekend (if we were facing Brock or Kupp) or feeling bad (if we started Brock or Kupp) ended up effectively being a fantasy non-event.

So I guess we'll see what happens Sunday... Oh yeah, and also Monday, as both matchups currently have multiple starters in the two MNF games...

 

[troglodytes]

What a crazy and horrible week for a lot of players. I particularly feel for Nick Chubb, the dude can't catch a break.

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

Well, I had a whole thing planned since Sunday afternoon about how fantasy football is a cruel, cruel bitch, and there are so many horrible ways to lose. Such as two years ago, in the championship matchup, with it coming down to MNF... Down 10 points with Stefon Diggs vs Ja'Maar Chase. Expecting an epic battle. Diggs gets half of those 10 points on the opening drive, Cinci takes over and... Damar Hamlin nearly dies on the field. Game stopped, then cancelled, then I lose. A tragic way to lose, but thankfully could have been worse.

I thought this week would be defined not as tragic, but as moronic. Jonathan Taylor on a breakaway 41-yard touchdown run. Untouched the entire way. Increasing my lead and my projected lead at the time. But wait! He dropped the ball before he crossed, like an idiot! So take away the 6 points for the TD, take away the 0.1 point for the final yard of the run, deduct a point for the fumble, then deduct two more points because it counts as a lost fumble. A 9.1 point swing, at which point I resigned myself to the fact that I was going to lose, and it was going to be by less than 9.1 points, and that I would FOREVER hold a grudge against Jonathan Taylor for his stupidity...

...and then I lost by 9.98 points, so I guess it didn't matter

Congratulations to the Milwaukee Muggers on advancing to the Semifinals!

On the other side of the bracket, Birds of War continued their run in the defeat of Beer is my Patronus. I must say, this one finished closer than projected, as Patronus was led by a stellar 40+ point performance from Baker Mayfield, while the Birds saw less than 20 from Tua Tagovialoa.

But the Birds had a lot of players in double digits while Patronus did not, so even with good performances from Rashod Bateman and Nico Collins, Patronus couldn't finish the job and take out the league's high scorer.

That said, I was watching the score all weekend and it was a lot more of a nailbiter for both teams, I'm sure.

Congratulations to Birds of War on advancing!

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

For this week, we have two pretty compelling matchups.

• #4 seed Birds of War vs #1 seed Bar Flies: As I mentioned before the season, these two rosters were ones I highlighted as being very strong, dangerous teams, and they did not disappoint. Birds of War was the highest scoring team in the league, and Bar Flies spent most of the season in the top 2-3, although the Muggers snuck in with a >200 point week and pushed Bar Flies to 4th in the final week of the regular season. Bar Flies finished in sole first place at 11-3 and thus took the #1 seed and first round bye, while the Birds are now riding an 8 game win streak. This could be an interesting QB battle, as Jalen Hurts is Jalen Hurts, but he's dealing with a broken finger on his non-throwing hand. That said, it didn't stop him from putting up 39.60 points on Sunday, so it remains to be seen whether it will affect him. On the other side, despite my praise for the Birds' roster, QB is possibly their weakest position. Tua has been up and down since his return from injury, so you don't know which Tua you'll get if he's in the roster. Also on the roster are Geno Smith, who's thrown for tons of yards and not many TDs, and Jameis Winston, who is going to throw a lot of passes, but you never know which team will catch them. So I think there's a good chance this matchup comes down to how many points the Birds of War get from whichever QB plays for them.
• #6 seed Milwaukee Muggers vs #2 seed Brockstars: These two teams have been interesting all year. In many ways, they are opposites. The Milwaukee Muggers battled all season. They finished the season 3rd in points scored, but needed to win all the way in week 14 just to squeak into the final playoff spot. The Brockstars, on the other hand, were all the way down in 8th in points scored, but by virtue of being 11th in points against, ended up with a lot of wins against teams who had down weeks. As mentioned Brockstars secured the #2 seed and first round by, by virtue of being 2-0 H2H against Birds of War and IPA/Blonde. Those teams, the #1 and #2 scoring teams in the league, averaged 118.97 points in those two matchups, while those teams averaged 152.81 points overall this season. So what looks here like it would be a fairly uneven matchup with a team that secured the #2 seed and had a two game advantage in the regular season might be quite the squeaker. A key factor in this matchup is the Detroit running backs. The Muggers just lost David Montgomery for the season, who was in the starting lineup in the first round playoff win. That obviously hurts the Muggers, but it's a double whammy as the Brockstars have Jahmyr Gibbs, who will likely benefit from not splitting the workload with David Montgomery. That said, this is one of those matchups that could go either way. The Muggers have firepower, as Sam Darnold threw for 5 TDs two weeks ago and Ja'Maar Chase can drop 40 on command. However, the Brockstars have Justin Jefferson, which may negate some of Darnold's scoring if TD passes go his way. Of course, if those TD passes go to Jordan Addison, then it's a stack of points for the Muggers. Going to be an interesting Sunday afternoon/evening for these two managers, as Minnesota plays in the 3:05 CT / 1:05 PT time slot!

Good luck to all!

 

[VirginiaHops1]

Fun season boys. I had high hopes for my team early on but busts(Tyreek, Etienne) and injuries(Godwin, Higgins, others) did me in. Good luck to the teams in the semifinals. Already looking forward to next year

Also, major props to Beta for the very engaging commentary...

 

[troglodytes]

As of the time it was written, it seemed like it might be a QB battle. However after today's announcements, I'm think GB defense is going to beat me single handedly.

 

[gromitdj]

I can’t believe the thought and effort @betarhoalphadelta puts into his breakdowns. I always enjoyed reading them. It’s been fun, as always. Good luck to all!

 

[TallDan]

158 points would be a solid effort against a normal opponent. 220+ points is something else. Nice win and good luck in the finals.

 

[troglodytes]

The most impressive part of the 220+ points is there was no crazy 60 point player. Just a great performance by the entire team.

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

Yep. I was at the golf course having a beer after my round and on one of the TD's I see a highlight of a long Saquon TD run and the blurb underneath said "2nd today". Then later I was watching at home and on the stats ticker under the screen I see JT had 3 TDs.

And I thought to myself "huh... Sure they do it THIS week after I'm eliminated!"

And then I realize I would've scored 186 and still lost by 40 points

That 226 is the highest I've seen since joining this league. What a performance!

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

Well, the championship is set!

I said that Bar Flies vs Birds of War might come down to the QB, and I was almost right... But in a different way. Bar Flies nearly lost this matchup and quite honestly it would have been more than fair to say that Jalen Hurts going down injured after scoring a mere 5.04 was the reason. Going into MNF, Birds of War had the lead and Josh Jacobs yet to play, while Bar Flies had the Packers kicker and DST. Birds of War got 20 out of Jacobs, and I thought that would be enough... But Brandon McManus put up 12, and the Packers DST put up 19 in a shutout, and that was enough for the #1 seed Bar Flies to take it and advance.

On the other side, we've obviously already talked about it... The Milwaukee Muggers can't be completely unhappy with 158.84 points. That's a higher point total than any team in the league's season average, and thus would have beaten most teams, most weeks. But the Brockstars went thermonuclear, scoring 226.72(!) a number that I believe would have beaten all teams I've ever seen, in any league, in any week, in any year I've done fantasy football. The only roster spot not in double digits was the DST, and only two more were even in the teens.

So we have a championship:

#1 Bar Flies vs #2 Brockstars: Yep, we have a #1 seed vs #2 seed matchup here. The Bar Flies had sole possession of the top spot while the Brockstars had the tiebreaker in a three-way tie for #2. Both got the first round bye to avoid potentially slipping up, and then both took care of business in the semifinals. And now they face off for all the marbles beer. Injuries will definitely be a concern here, as Jalen Hurts is in the concussion protocol for the Bar Flies, while Tank Dell was sadly lost for the season with a knee injury for the Brockstars. With Jalen Hurts scheduled to play Sunday after 12 NFL teams will have already played, if this comes down to a game time decision, that limits the number of available and worthwhile replacements. For the Brockstars, a lot will hinge on the Detroit @ San Francisco matchup on Monday night. With three Lions and Brock Purdy on their roster, who combined for >100 points this past week, can they repeat? It's likely that Bar Flies, who will already be done, will go into Monday Night Football with a lead, and both teams will be watching with bated breath to see what those four players do.

Either way, it should be an exciting week of football! With an early start tomorrow, we'll have games on 5 of 6 straight days, with potentially players from this matchup being started on every single one of those days.

Enjoy, and Merry Christmas everyone!

 

[Chorgey]

Thanks to @betarhoalphadelta for these well written (and thought out) breakdowns. I honestly don't know where you find the time to do them, but it's definitely appreciated! Merry Christmas!