Unfortunately it does seem that quite a few of the newer NJ breweries are putting out mediocre product at best. There are definitely exceptions, and many of the brewers I've met recognize the issues (water chemistry is a MAJOR common theme) so hopefully this improves with time.
The high-quality product at Conclave - thanks to
Timmush - is a good example of what can be done when you pay attention to water chemistry from day 1, and work hard to continually develop and evolve great recipes. Magnify has been steadily dialing it in and showing noticeable improvement. Dark City has a lot of work to do, but those guys definitely know what they're doing so I'm confident. I've also tasted their wild ale culture, and it is absolutely on point.
DJPhresh is working his ass off to turn Demented around; I tasted eight of his batches last weekend and they are well on their way to very good things. I am also highly confident that we'll see great things from
CzigMeister almost right out of the gate. Matt definitely knows how to brew for quality, and when to dump a batch - an oft-overlooked but extremely important practice.
Still, I worry about many of the others. For now, you can pack your tasting room every weekend regardless of quality, but quality will matter more and more as time goes on and the mainstream becomes more experienced. Not every brewer has the palate or brewing acumen of the guys I mentioned above, and breweries that can't or won't continue striving to improve are going to fail sooner or later if market forces go the way the Brewer's Association and others predict. This is not entirely bad; I'd rather live in a New Jersey with 10 great breweries than one with 6 great breweries and 34 mediocre ones. Still, I'd love to have 40 great ones, so I really do hope those others find a way to recognize the true quality of their product and put in the effort to fix it.
That's my $0.02.