Alright, 9 weeks in, and we're all (or, almost all) starting to think about what the outlook looks like for the playoffs.
Last year, it came down to the wire. Having only 4 spots last year meant that the bar for playoff entry was, IIRC, 9-6 in 15 games. This year with 6 playoff spots and only 14 games, looking at the outlook I think 8-6 will ensure a team gets in. 7-7, in my opinion, will come down to tiebreakers.
With 6 in the playoffs, this puts a premium on being one of the top two, as both of those teams will get a bye through the first round.
So here's where we stand so far:
Playoff Locks:
- Nobody. My definition of a "lock" is a team that could lose all the remainder of their games and will still be in the playoffs. As said above, a 7-7 record MIGHT get a team in, but likely requiring tiebreakers. It might even be mathematically possible that we could have 6 teams at 8-6 or better, in which case 7-7 has no chance. Since nobody has 8 wins yet, there is no lock.
Feeling Confident:
- Mr IPA and Mrs Blonde (me): Record: 7-2. Rank: 1st. Points scored: 1st. At this point the team is in good shape. Mostly healthy at key positions, decent depth, and 1st in points scored so the consistency has been there. Past the worst of bye weeks, so not a lot of need for roster churn. While it's possible to go 0-5 from here on out, I think it's unlikely. Hoping the team remains healthy to set up for the playoff run, rather than worrying about making it.
- Dawg Pound: Record: 6-3. Rank: 2nd. Points scored: 3rd. Needs to go 2-3 through the next 5 games to feel comfortable, but at 3rd place in the league in points scored, the 6-3 record is no fluke. Roster looks solid, with Jamaal Williams and Tony Pollard ascending in their offenses, and studs in Hurts, Ekeler, and Goedert. 3 of the 5 remaining games are against teams with lower total points scored.
Contenders:
Including all 5-4 teams. 3-2 from here on out should be safe, and 2-3 may not rule you out depending on tiebreakers. Putting in order of league rankings, but pay key attention to points scored, as IMHO that is a decent predictor of the future barring rosters that have gotten blown up by injury/etc.
- Hop To It: Record: 5-4. Rank: 3rd. Points scored: 4th. I see this as a bit of a boom/bust team. Jefferson is a downright stud. Guys like Kyler, ARStB can have big weeks but are inconsistent. Probably the best combination of kickers and defenses in the league. Farther down the roster, it gets tough. Mostert may be being eclipsed by JWJ. Fournette, Harris, Hunt are committee backs (and losing share). And remaining schedule is tough.
- Bones Are Their Money: Record: 5-4: Rank: 4th. Points scored: 6th. An ascending team. Some of the roster got off to slow starts, but Henry, Saquon, and Lamb are living up to billing. Geno has been a very positive surprise, and CP84 is back from IR. A lot of upside on the bench. Schedule is moderate. Setting up well to make the playoffs.
- incREDibles: Record: 5-4. Rank: 5th. Points scored: 9th. Based on points scored, this is a team that has been punching above their weight class. But there's promise. Herbert has been playing hurt. Mixon hasn't been scoring touchdowns--until he got 5 in one game. Deebo could benefit from CMC taking attention (or could lose volume). Dillon could get increased workload if Aaron Jones' injury lingers. This team is definitely in the mix.
- Hefeheisman Winners: Record: 5-4. Rank: 6th. Points Scored: 10th. Another team that is punching above its weight class. However recent real-life NFL trades has drastically improved this team. CMC to the 49ers puts him on a better team with a better QB behind a better OL. The move of JWJ to the Fins will likely upgrade him significantly. Chubb is a stud and you have to think the Atlanta offense is SOMETIME going to try to get Pitts involved more than they have. This may be a fragile team, however. Not a lot of bench depth, and behind CMC/Chubb you're not entirely sure who you might trust to have a big week. CMC/Chubb need to stay healthy down the stretch or this team might be sunk.
- Big Gulps: Record: 5-4. Rank: 7th. Points scored: 2nd. Big Gulps is 4th worst in points against, and IMHO, is significantly better than this record. This team, when healthy, is the team I fear most in the playoffs. An RB corps of Jones, Etienne, Jacobs and Foreman is solid. Chase/AJB/G. Davis are tremendous at WR. Goff, when the offense is humming, can put up points, and Watson off suspension is going to want to show he's worth all that money. And the Eagles DST I let go through their bye and regret it. Chase being out for a while may hurt the team a little, but there's enough depth here that I think this team is the class of the "Contenders" group.
Work to Do:
Here are two of the 4-5 teams. Pretty much need to go 4-1 from here on out to feel safe, and might get lucky at 3-2. Don't think 2-3 will be enough to get into the dance.
- Just Joshin: Record: 4-5. Rank: 8th. Points scored: 5th. Always hard when you're picking 1.1 and you pick someone who is currently 36th at their position. Jonathan Taylor has been injured and is on a bad offense, potentially getting worse after benching their QB, firing their OC, and firing their HC in three successive weeks. You can almost say JT has tanked Just Joshin's season... But... Not so fast, my friend! There is a lot of positivity here. This team is 5th in points scored without JT. Burrow is gon' Burrow. Walker has been balling after Penny was lost for the season. Tyreek is on pace for a record WR season. Olave is ascending. Kmet has appeared out of nowhere and that offense seems to be improving. Allgeier is, well, there, and that might be enough. Metcalf is solid. There's a lot here. It's an uphill battle from here on out, but 3 of the remaining 5 games are against a fellow 4-5 team, a 3-6 team, and a 1-8 team, so the schedule is very friendly.
- HBT Football Team: Record: 4-5. Rank: 9th. Points scored: 7th. I'm guessing this team manager is searching WebMD for ulnar collateral ligament information right now, because the season has come down to the dominance of Josh Allen and Cooper Kupp, and Josh Allen is Questionable with UCL damage. I'm not going to lie. The rest of this season comes down to what happens with Josh Allen's elbow. The next two weeks are against the 1-8 team and the 3-6 team, and he's going to have to likely take both of those and then hope Allen is 100% to have a chance in the next three.
Long Shots:
- LoneTreeFarms: Record: 4-5. Rank: 10th. Points scored: 7th. This one is going to be tough. This is a team that has hit some injury troubles. Just when Breece Hall looked like he had taken that entire job, he went down for the season. Dobbins as well. Now the team faces Big Gulps on a week that Lamar Jackson is one bye, and the backup is some scrub named Aaron Rodgers facing the Dallas defense. I don't want to say it's over for this team, as there is some talent on this roster, but the schedule is doing few favors for LoneTreeFarms, facing three of the top 4 teams in points scored in the next 5 weeks.
Say Goodnight, Gracie:
- Bar Flies - Chorgey: Record: 3-6. Rank: 11th. Points scored: 11th. Points against: 3rd (worst). This team has to feel like there have been some missed opportunities. And there's talent on the roster. But being 11th in points scored and 3rd in points against is going to lead to a record like 3-6, and I think this is just too deep of a hole to climb out of. 5-0 is necessary to feel safe, and 4-1 would just barely get into a tiebreaker... Maybe. This team may be only mostly deady, but as Miracle Max would say regarding the chances of making the playoffs, "It would take a miracle."
- fill my Kupp: Record: 1-8. Rank: 12th. Points scored: 12th. Points against: Worst. 6-8 isn't going to get into the playoffs, so even winning out won't help here. Sad for a team that IIRC was top half of the league last year. That said, this team can still factor into the playoff race by beating some of the teams left on their schedule. If you can't win it all, might as well take some of 'em down with ya, right? "You'll never take me alive, copper!"
So that's where we stand, folks. And, whew! That was more work than I thought!
Not going to do another next week, but plan to follow up two weeks from now as the picture should get a lot more clear.