PPR Fantasy Football

[betarhoalphadelta]

Some important matchups this week. I haven't run all the math, but I really think there won't be any team missing the playoffs at 8-6, so that should be the target. 7-7 still potentially possible but it'll likely come down to tiebreakers. So the below are games where it almost seems like "must win" for some teams and others which put themselves into really good shape with a win.

Bar Flies (4-6) vs HBT Football Team (4-6): Bar Flies managed a very impressive win over Dawg Pound to keep the dream alive, but this has all the feel to me of a playoff elimination game... Realistically I don't think anyone is making the playoffs worst than 7-7, and the loser of this game is going to have to finish 3-0 just to get there. Bar Flies appears to have the easier remaining schedule of the two, so has at least a little more wiggle room with a loss, but the loser of this game is going to have to get VERY lucky.

Just Joshin (4-6) vs Dawg Pound (6-4): Just Joshin will finish the season with Bar Flies (4-6), HBTFT (4-6), and fill my Kupp (2-8). A win here this week sets up an easier road the rest of the way to get to 7-7 or better and a possible playoff spot. A loss means 3-0 the rest of the way to have any shot. For Dawg Pound, a win here would REALLY help as the rest of the schedule are the teams currently 5th, 4th, and 1st in the league in points scored.

Bones Are Their Money (6-4) vs Hop To It (6-4): The polar opposite of Bar Flies vs HBTFT. The winner of this game has to feel REALLY good about their chances. I think 8-6 is safely into the playoffs so getting to 7-4 is huge, requiring only a 2-1 finish the rest of the way. Neither team has a cakewalk of a schedule going forward, but not some sort of murderer's row that you worry either team will finish 0-3 from there.

The other three games all involve 5-5 teams (one between two of those teams). Each would really improve their chances with a win, but likely aren't devastated by a loss.

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

Alright... We're down to three weeks remaining.

Looking at the remaining schedules, I honestly think that 7-7 is going to be the playoff cut line, but that there will be multiple teams in tiebreaker mode at 7-7.

That, of course, means that everyone with 4 wins is still alive in this thing. Bar Flies & Just Joshin at 4-7 have to win out to get into that tiebreaker, which they can't both do as they face each other in week 13. But one of them could get there. Bar Flies has fill my Kupp this week and then finishes off with Bones are their Money in week 14. Just Joshin has HBT Football team this week and fill my Kupp in week 14. So they each are facing the last place team in one remaining game.

Which then brings up the obvious question. What is the "safe" line for playoffs? Is 8-6 enough? Or, put another way, with 9 teams at 5 wins or better with 3 weeks remaining, is there ANY mathematical possibility to have 7+ teams end up at 8-6 leading to tiebreakers. Not that I think we *will* have even 6 teams there, opening the door to a massive 7-7 tiebreaker, but is it mathematically possible?

So let's look at it. I'm going to do it in reverse order of standings because it's those 5-6 teams that need 3 wins to get there.

And I repeat--this exercise is NOT whether these teams can make the playoffs. It's whether they can get to 8-6, and whether that will be enough to guarantee a playoff spot.

9. incREDibles (5-6): Must win all three remaining games against Lone Tree Farms (6-5), Hefeheisman Winners (5-6), and Hop To It (7-4). So here we have our first cut line. incREDibles and Hefeheisman cannot both win out because they face each other. So we're down from 9 potential tied teams to 8. Hop To It doesn't factor in because they have one game against Mr IPA and Mrs Blonde, and by winning that could lose against incREDibles and still get to 8. So we'll have to look ahead to questions of whether a win against Lone Tree Farms would make it impossible for Lone Tree Farms to win their two remaining games (or by doing so would knock out another team's chance).

8. Hefeheisman Winners (5-6): Must win all three remaining games against Mr IPA and Mrs Blonde (8-3), incREDibles (5-6), and Lone Tree Farms (6-5). My team doesn't factor, as a loss doesn't impact me. Obviously incREDibles is (per previous) is an either/or proposition. And here we have Lone Tree Farms again. Mathematically LTF could lose to one of these teams and then beat the loser of the incREDibles/Hefeheisman game, so it'll come down to whether LTF's third game impacts anything.

7. HBT Football Team (5-6): Must win all three remaining games against Just Joshin (4-7), Bones are their Money (6-5), and Big Gulps (6-5). Just Joshin doesn't factor in, as a win there doesn't affect any teams that can reach 8-6. But with two games against 6-5 teams and needing to win both, if HBT Football Team gets to 8 wins, it means that both Bones and Big Gulps need to win both remaining games on the schedule. So we'll have to look at those.

6: Lone Tree Farms (6-5): Must win two of three against incREDibles (5-6), fill my Kupp (3-8), and Hefeheisman (5-6). So here we have our answer. LTF's third game doesn't impact any teams that can reach 8 wins. So two of the three (LTF and the winner of the incREDibles/Hefeheisman matchup) can mathematically make it to 8 wins if it falls right. And none or only one of the three can make it to 8 wins as well.

5. Bones Are Their Money (6-5): Must win two of three against Dawg Pound (7-4), HBT Football Team (5-6), and Bar Flies (4-7). Mathematically can get there without a problem. Losing to HBTFT doesn't eliminate Bones, Bar Flies doesn't factor as they can't reach 8, and Dawg Pound is only one win away from 8 facing IPA/Blonde, who is already there, so Dawg Pound could lose this game and still get to 8.

4. Big Gulps (6-5): Must win two of three against Hop To It (7-4), Dawg Pound (7-4), and HBT Football Team (5-6). Can mathematically make it. Like Dawg Pound, Hop To It has a remaining game against IPA/Blonde, so Hop To It can make it to 8 losing this game, as can Dawg Pound. This means Big Gulps could lose to HBTFT (thus leaving their dreams alive) and still reach 8 without stopping any remaining opponents from reaching 8.

3. Hop To It (7-4): Must win one of three against Big Gulps (6-5), Mr IPA and Mrs Blonde (8-3), and incREDibles (5-6). Can make it with a win in any game, but specifically the game against IPA/Blonde doesn't impact any team trying to reach 8, so can lose both other games and keep those teams' dreams alive.

2. Dawg Pound (7-4): Must win one of three against Bones Are Their Money (6-5), Big Gulps (6-5), and Mr IPA and Mrs Blonde (8-3). Can make it with a win in any game, but specifically the game against IPA/Blonde doesn't impact any team trying to reach 8, so can lose both other games and keep those teams' dreams alive.

1. Mr IPA and Mrs Blonde (8-3): Already at 8, remaining schedule of Hefeheisman Winners (5-6), Hop To It (7-4), and Dawg Pound (7-4).

So by my math, here, of 9 teams who are still within range of getting to 8 wins, the ONLY mathematical certainty is that the loser of the incREDibles/Hefeheisman game can't get to 8 wins.

It's not very likely, but mathematically we could have an 8-team tie at 8-6 in three weeks. And the tiebreakers there are very complicated, probably enough to break the NFL.com servers.

So we have nobody currently that can call themselves a "LOCK" for the playoffs. We'll have to wait until next week to revisit.

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

Which brings us to the important games of the week. Which is, quite frankly, all of them. So let's look at them:

Mr IPA and Mrs Blonde (8-3) vs Hefeheisman Winners (5-6): For IPA/Blonde, a win would make them a mathematical lock for the playoffs. It is impossible to have more than 6 teams get to 9 wins. At this point the goal is a first round playoff bye, which will probably require getting to 10 wins to feel safe about. That becomes especially important with remaining games against the #3 and #2 teams in the current standings in the next two weeks, who are also fighting for those first round playoff byes. For Hefeheisman Winners, this game is necessary to reach 8 wins, and would be a HUGE help in the race to get into a potential tiebreaker at the 7-win mark. A loss doesn't eliminate them, but a win would really help.

Bar Flies (4-7) vs fill my Kupp (3-8): fill my Kupp is already out of playoff contention. A loss here knocks Bar Flies out, a win keeps their dreams of a 7-7 tiebreaker alive.

incREDibles (5-6) vs Lone Tree Farms (6-5): incREDibles needs to win out to get to 8, and win 2 of 3 to get to 7. A loss here doesn't destroy their chances, but it makes it an uphill battle. LTF has IMHO the easiest remaining schedule in the league, so a win here really seems to pave the way to 8 (or more) wins.

HBT Football Team (5-6) vs Just Joshin (4-7): It's not quite playoff elimination for both teams, but this is absolutely must-win for Just Joshin. A loss here ends their playoff hopes. For HBTFT, this is the easiest remaining matchup on paper on the schedule before facing two teams in the top half of the standings. Needing to win out to get to 8, and 2 of 3 just to get to 7-7 and make it into a potential tiebreaker, the playoffs will be VERY hard to reach without a win this week.

Dawg Pound (7-4) vs Bones Are Their Money (6-5): Huge implications for both teams for playoffs and potentially for seeding. Bones has an easier schedule going forward, so can likely afford a loss here, but a win with that schedule could keep the dream of a first round playoff bye alive. Dawg Pound is definitely in the conversation for a first round playoff bye, and a win here (and potentially losses by Hop To It or IPA/Blonde) increases the likelihood of getting there, while a loss with the remaining schedule hurts.

Hop To It (7-4) vs Big Gulps (6-5): Big Gulps has a very difficult schedule, facing Dawg Pound next week and finishing with contender HBTFT. Going 2-0 after a loss here to get to 8 looks like an uphill battle, but winning 1-1 if they can get a win here looks more realistic. Hop To It has the same "first round playoff bye" aspirations as Dawg Pound, and a win here greatly increases those odds, while a loss with the remaining schedule hurts.

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

Poll question: Do you guys enjoy these breakdowns? If not, I'll stop doing them as it's a non-trivial amount of work...

 

[Chorgey]

I actually like the weekly breakdowns.

 

[TallDan]

Poll question: Do you guys enjoy these breakdowns? If not, I'll stop doing them as it's a non-trivial amount of work...

Love them. That said, don’t feel obligated to do it, but if you keep posting, I’ll keep reading (and enjoying).

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

Thanks. I'll keep it up. Was hoping that it might drive a little bit more talk [or trash talk] in this thread... Been a bit quiet in here all season.

 

[Chorgey]

Yeah, I'm not much of a trash talker, it usually bites me in the a$$

Maybe if I had a better record (?)

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

Yeah, I'm not much of a trash talker, it usually bites me in the a$$

Maybe if I had a better record (?)

Yeah, it's like in golf... It's okay to trash talk your buddy's horrible tee shot... But it's dangerous to do so before you've hit your own!

 

[TallDan]

Trash talk?

I’ve got the best IR list in this league. Way better than any of you fools!

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

Trash talk?

I’ve got the best IR list in this league. Way better than any of you fools!

Didn't seem to slow you down this week!

 

[TallDan]

Didn't seem to slow you down this week!

Well, I don’t think there is a fantasy football team that wouldn’t be improved by adding a healthy Cooper Kupp.

It was a good week though. I’m still clinging to some relevance in this league.

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

Well, I don’t think there is a fantasy football team that wouldn’t be improved by adding a healthy Cooper Kupp.

It was a good week though. I’m still clinging to some relevance in this league.

Hey, the first thing any team has to do is get to the playoffs. Once you're there, anything can happen. It's actually one of the reasons that I advocated for 6 teams in the playoffs and each of them being 1-week matchups (rather than 2-week as ESPN default settings use). Keep more teams engaged longer in the season and increase the "luck" factor in the playoffs so anyone who makes it knows they have a chance and won't just get stomped by the dominant rosters in the league.

After tonight, I think there will only be 2 teams out of 12 that can't make the playoffs. That's pretty solid at this point.

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

Okay, two regular season games left, and it's wide open.

Playoff Lock(s):

• Mr IPA and Mrs Blonde (9-3): With 9 wins, it is impossible to miss the playoffs. Which means the goal is to get a first round playoff bye. One more win does it, because with a 2-game lead over all remaining teams, getting to 10 wins means a guaranteed #1 regular season finish.

Looking at the standings, there are 7 teams still sitting at either 7-5 or 6-6. Mathematically, I believe that every one of them can reach 8 wins, which could mean that 8 wins (right now) still isn't a lock. So every win matters from here on out.

Playoff Outsiders:

• fill my KUPP (3-9): Minimum of 7 wins are needed for the playoffs, and with two games remaining it's not mathematically possible.
• Just Joshin (4-8): The tie for 6th place right now (last playoff spot) is 6 wins, and Just Joshin could mathematically get to 6. However, Lone Tree Farms (6-6) and incREDibles (6-6) both face Hefeheisman Winners (5-7) in the next two weeks. ONE of these teams (at least) must get to 7 wins. Either of the former beating Hefeheisman gets them to 7, and Hefeheisman going 2-0 from here is 7. So Just Joshin cannot make the top 6.

Playoff Hopefuls:

• 7-5 teams (4): While they're not "locks" at 8 wins, I believe that any one of these teams getting to 8 will get them in. Big Gulps and Dawg Pound play each other this week, so one of the two will automatically get to 8.
• 6-6 teams (3): Need two wins to feel safe, but my projection is that 7 wins will at least get them into a playoff tiebreaker. incREDibles and Lone Tree Farms face teams below them in the standings, so those are very important chances to get some separation. HBTFT faces Bones (7-5), making this a pivotal game for both teams.
• 5-7 teams (2): Do or die mode. Need to finish 2-0 to have a prayer at a playoff tiebreaker.

 

[gromitdj]

I also love them. Please keep it up, if it's not "too" much work.

As for the trash talk; I'm getting ready to go from 1st to worst, I got nothing...

 

[lupulinaddict]

I’ve been talking trash to myself all year. This is my worst fantasy season ever!

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

I’ve been talking trash to myself all year. This is my worst fantasy season ever!

Yeah... Doesn't help that in addition to having the least points scored, you've had the most scored against you!

Looking at your draft with the hindsight of being in week 12 and... Ooof.

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

LOTS of pivotal SNF/MNF activity tonight. Exciting!

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

Okay, as we head into MNF:

• Dawg Pound has punched their ticket to 8 wins by defeating Big Gulps. I'm not 100% sure but the way things are falling I believe 8 wins will be a playoff lock after the conclusion of this week's games. Big Gulps at 7 wins is still in the mix.
• Mr IPA and Mrs Blonde appears to be prevailing over Hop To It, barring a >=38.2 point game from Uncle Lenny. That would lock up the #1 seed and first round bye, but Hop To It at 7 wins is still in the thick of things for the playoffs even with a loss.
• Barring some absolute craziness tonight, the end has come for Bar Flies, with a loss coming to Just Joshin. That brings us to our third team eliminated from the playoffs.
• Lone Tree Farms looks set up to get to 7 wins as well, with a minute lead over fill my KUPP but with two players left to play.
• Bones are Their Money has a little over a 12 point lead over HBT Football Team, but Bones is finished for the week and HBTFT still has Godwin and Succop going tonight. HBTFT is projected to clear that deficit and win the matchup by about 10 points. That would leave both teams at 7-6 exiting the weekend. However, I think it's close enough that both teams will sweat out MNF tonight.
• Speaking of CLOSE, Hefeheisman Winners is holding a 7.42 point lead over incREDibles, and is finished with incREDibles still playing Rachaad White tonight--who is projected for 7.73 points. This matchup is critical for Hefeheisman Winners, as a loss will end their playoff chances entirely.

So we've got two matchups still entirely up in the air, and both are resting on how well Tampa Bay offensive players fare against a New Orleans team that is 4-1 against the Brady-led Bucs in the regular season since Tom came to Tompa Bay. In the two matchups played in Raymond James Stadium, in fact, the Bucs have scored a combined 3 points.

HBTFT and incREDibles are both hoping for some offensive firepower to be unleashed tonight from the Bucs, while Bones and Hefeheisman would like to see the Saints continue that streak.

 

[TallDan]

I was feeling better about my chances before reading that.

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

I was feeling better about my chances before reading that.

Yeah, and I feel like I've cursed myself into a Lenny 38.3 point game by dismissing the likelihood of it happening!

 

[Chorgey]

I think that I am missing the mark.... what is Uncle Lenny/Lenny in reference to?

 

[TallDan]

Not watching because I don’t have a tv plan with espn, but watching the fantasy app for updates. C’mon! I need one point!

 

[TallDan]

Phew.

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

I think that I am missing the mark.... what is Uncle Lenny/Lenny in reference to?

Leonard Fournette.

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

Alright, it's crunch time! 2 teams are locks, but one needs another win to guarantee a first round bye. 6 teams are in contention for the playoffs. 4 teams have been eliminated.

5 out of the 6 games this week have playoff implications. So it's gonna come down to the wire.

The season has now worked itself out such that 8 wins is a playoff lock. We have 6 teams all sitting at 7-6 vying for 4 remaining playoff spots, but only 4 of the 6 teams can reach 8 wins, as there are two games between tied 7-6 teams. So if you're at 8 wins at the conclusion of the week, you're in.

However, going into this week we can NOT guarantee that 7 wins keeps you out of the playoffs. We will have a minimum of 4 teams sitting at 8 wins or more after this week, but if either of the other two teams lose to teams below them in the standings, 7-7 becomes a tiebreaker for either the last two spots (if both lose) or the last spot (if only one of those teams loses).

So here's where we are:

Playoff Locks:

• Mr IPA and Mrs Blonde (10-3): A 2-game lead with 1 game to play means that the #1 seed in the playoffs, and the first-round bye, are both secured for IPA/Blonde. In a perfect world, I could do what they do in the NFL, bench all my starters, and guarantee that none of them would be injured this week or next. However, while that might be my fantasy, it's not how fantasy works, so I'll be setting my lineup as usual lol.
• Dawg Pound (8-5): As mentioned above, it is mathematically impossible to have more than 6 teams at 8 wins or better, so Dawg Pound has punched their card to the playoffs. What remains is to determine seed and/or eligibility for the first round bye. A win this weekend over IPA/Blonde will guarantee the #2 seed and a first round bye. A loss means a tiebreaker against no less then two, and no more than 4, teams for that seed and bye. So this is a critical week to ensure that Dawg Pound can avoid the first round of the playoffs and a potential loss there.

Playoff Contenders:

First and foremost, I will NOT be going through these teams in order of standings. I will be going in order of how they affect what happens regarding whether we will or won't have a 7-7 tiebreaker for the final 1-2 spots. Also note because I don't want to repeat it--the winners of the below games all want Dawg Pound to lose, because a Dawg Pound win makes it impossible for any of them to win an 8-6 tiebreaker for the #2 seed and bye.

• Bones are Their Money (7-6) and Lone Tree Farms (7-6): Bones plays Bar Flies (5-8) and LTF plays Hefeheisman Winners (5-8) this week, both eliminated teams. This is critical both for their own playoff hopes and what it does to potential 7-7 tiebreakers. First, a loss here by either team GUARANTEES that there will be a 7-7 tiebreaker to make the playoffs, and a loss by both means that there will be two open spots in that tiebreaker. A win here by one team not only puts that team in the playoffs (and with a Dawg Pound loss, potentially the #2 seed and a first round bye), but takes one of two potential 7-7 playoff spots away, impacting the losers of the two games between 7-6 teams. A win here by both teams means that the losers of those games are eliminated from the playoffs. So the teams in both of those games are not only trying to win for their own hopes, they're rooting against both teams here, in case they lose their own matchup.
• incREDibles (7-6) vs Hop To It (7-6) and HBT Football Team (7-6) vs Big Gulps (7-6): The winner of these two games punches their guaranteed ticket to the playoffs, and with a Dawg Pound loss, could potentially be the #2 seed and get a first round bye. The loser of these two games has to hope for an upset loss for Bones and/or LTF and then hope that the tiebreakers fall their way.

So there you go. 8-6 gets you. 7-7 doesn't eliminate you... Unless it does. A lot at stake and all you can try to do is win your own matchup to get there.

Eliminated:

• Bar Flies (5-8) and Hefeheisman Winners (5-8): Eliminated but their performance drastically affects the playoff race, as they not only impact games against the playoff contenders they face, they impact the losers of the two games between 7-6 teams as well. So there are going to be about 4 teams heading into the week rooting for these teams to win.
• Just Joshin (5-8): Well, defending champ Just Joshin said a few weeks back that they might go from first to worst. Congratulations! You didn't finish last!
• fill my KUPP (3-10): One of those years where everything that can go wrong, did. A draft that looked promising that was bugbit by injuries and busts, leading to currently the lowest-scoring team in the league. Coupled with the most points against of any team in the league, and about all you can say is better luck next year. But at least we don't have a Sacko penalty in this league!

 

[lupulinaddict]

We also should iron out the second, and possibly third place, details. I don’t remember that we settled on anything. Any new input?

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

We also should iron out the second, and possibly third place, details. I don’t remember that we settled on anything. Any new input?

If we just want to reward 2nd, I've got two suggestions:

1. 2nd place doesn't send beer to 1st. 12th place sends beer to both 2nd and 1st.
2. 2nd place sends beer to 1st (as penance for losing in the championship). 12th place sends beer to 2nd, but not to first.

IMHO my preference is the first option, but I would suggest we do that *next* year as we already know who the 12th place team is and I don't think it's fair to punish someone after the fact.

I'd suggest option #2 this year and option #1 starting next year.

But obviously I'm open to suggestions if people don't think the above works well.

 

[TallDan]

I’d be in favor of something that decreases the amount of beer shipping or keeps it the same instead increasing it. So, I’d favor option 2.

Or, 2nd place just doesn’t send or receive beer. Which is a little bit of a bummer as part of the fun here is sending/receiving beer, but overall reduces shipping costs.

And I’d agree that option 1 is unfair for this year. Even if we didn’t know who last place is, it effectively makes last place double down on a known losing bet right now.

 

[Chorgey]

#1 and #2 should not ship any beer
#3 ships beer to #2
Everyone else ships beer to #1