Current standings, assuming that Kendrick Bourne doesn't just absolutely go off tonight. If he does, swap Big Gulps and Dawg Pound below:
Hop To It: 9-4
Big Gulps: 9-4
Dawg Pound: 8-5
fill my KUPP: 8-5
Big Wheel Brewing: 8-5
Mr IPA and Mrs Blonde: 8-5
Just Joshin: 7-6
Bar Flies: 7-6
HBT Football Team: 7-6
LoneTreeFarms: 5-8
Birds of War: 1-12
Bo Knows: 1-12
Outlook:
(Below matchups assume Big Gulps prevails tonight, except where noted.)
At most 4 teams can still reach 10-5 as the record, so 10-5 automatically gets you in. For the top two at 9-4, one more win gets you in. The next 4 teams at 8-5 each have games against one of the other 8-5 teams, which means that in any possible scenario, we will have at least four 9-6 teams. As a result, finishing 8-7 means you CANNOT make the playoffs.
So the minimum bar to hit is 9-6 to have a chance with tiebreakers, and 10-5 is automatic.
Hop To It: Bo Knows and LoneTreeFarms remaining, so worst case is probably 10-5 facing Bo Knows, best case is 11-4. Pretty much a lock for the playoffs.
Big Gulps: HBT Football Team and Bar Flies remaining. Best case is 11-4, worst case is 9-6. 10-5 will be an automatic lock for any team in the playoffs, but 9-6 might be in a big messy tiebreaker scenario. So Big Gulps needs one more win against either opponent to be a lock to the playoffs. If Dawg Pound DOES win tonight, then Big Gulps needs two wins for 10-5 and a loss to either HBT Football Team or Bar Flies makes it messy at 9-6.
Dawg Pound: Remaining is Mr IPA and Mrs Blonde and Bo Knows. Best case is 10-5, worst case realistically is 9-6 with Bo Knows still on the schedule. Only one of Mr IPA and Mrs Blonde and Dawg Pound can reach 10-5. Which makes this week a big one for Dawg Pound--a win makes it pretty likely to go to the playoffs. If Dawg Pound DOES win tonight, then due to facing Bo Knows, Dawg Pound would be basically a lock for 10-5 worst case with a chance at 11-4 if they win against Mr IPA and Mrs Blonde.
fill my KUPP: Remaining is Just Joshin and Big Wheel Brewing. Best case is 10-5, worst case is 8-7. Only one of fill my KUPP and Big Wheel Brewing can reach 10-5. Both games are both winnable and losable. fill my KUPP is the points leader on the season, so I think the team is better than the record here, but with Just Joshin and Big Wheel Brewing not being absentee teams, either one could knock off fill my KUPP.
Big Wheel Brewing: Remaining is LoneTreeFarms and fill my KUPP. Best case is 10-5, and worst case is 8-7. Only one of fill my KUPP and Big Wheel Brewing can reach 10-5. Again both games are winnable and both are losable, which means that depending on the results this week, week 15 could be an elimination shootout between Big Wheel Brewing and fill my KUPP both trying to reach 10-5, or it could be a desperation game of 8-6 teams both trying to reach 9-6 and hope to get into the playoffs based on tiebreakers.
Mr IPA and Mrs Blonde: Remaining is Dawg Pound and HBT Football Team. Best case is 10-5, worst case is 8-7. Only one of Mr IPA and Mrs Blonde and Dawg Pound can reach 10-5. I haven't looked at all the tiebreakers, but I've been pretty consistently at the back of tiebreakers due to H2H2H2H records, so I'll only feel comfortable if I can get to 10-5. Not sure I fare well in any 9-6 tiebreakers.
Just Joshin: Remaining is fill my KUPP and Birds of War. Best case is 9-6 and worst realistic case is 8-7 with Birds of War remaining. That makes this week a must win matchup against fill my KUPP.
Bar Flies: Remaining is Birds of War and Big Gulps. Best case is 9-6 and worst realistic case is 8-7 with Birds of War remaining. Week 15 against Big Gulps thus becomes a must win to have any shot.
HBT Football Team: Remaining is Big Gulps and Mr IPA and Mrs Blonde. The hardest remaining schedule of any 7-6 team without facing any absentee teams, and both are must win games.
LoneTreeFarms: Remaining is Big Wheel Brewing and Hop To It. Eliminated from playoff contention, best possible finish of 7-8. However, can still potentially play spoiler to Big Wheel Brewing to ensure that team doesn't reach 10 wins and gets stuck into a tiebreaker. Hop To It still has Bo Knows on the schedule, so LoneTreeFarms probably cannot ruin Hop To It's playoff chance.