PPR Fantasy Football

[betarhoalphadelta]

As much as I like the increase in opportunity, I hope there are mechanisms in place to deal with absentee owners...

Agreed.

 

[LoneTreeFarms]

Yep. Basically all the teams that haven’t been abandoned are in it.

I haven’t abandoned. Just injury riddled with a meh team.

 

[lupulinaddict]

As much as I like the increase in opportunity, I hope there are mechanisms in place to deal with absentee owners...

Unfortunately, we are on the honor system. Not sure how to enforce payouts other than some sort of buy in deposit to cover a beer shipment. That would involve trusting me, or someone else, to hold the money for the year. If that’s what others want to do I’m open to that, or other ideas. Luckily, most of us like beer and football so much we are honorable losers year after year.

 

[gromitdj]

Unfortunately, we are on the honor system. Not sure how to enforce payouts other than some sort of buy in deposit to cover a beer shipment. That would involve trusting me, or someone else, to hold the money for the year. If that’s what others want to do I’m open to that, or other ideas. Luckily, most of us like beer and football so much we are honorable losers year after year.

I was thinking along the lines of barring them from participating next season.

 

[gromitdj]

I haven’t abandoned. Just injury riddled with a meh team.

I don't think anyone believes that you're an absentee owner. You continue to make roster/lineup changes.

 

[LoneTreeFarms]

I don't think anyone believes that you're an absentee owner. You continue to make roster/lineup changes.

At this point it’s battle field triage.

 

[lupulinaddict]

I was thinking along the lines of barring them from participating next season.

I agree. That is our policy. Is someone in that didn’t send last year?

 

[TallDan]

I agree. That is our policy. Is someone in that didn’t send last year?

I’d have to go back to see who, but yeah.

 

[gromitdj]

No, not anyone from the other league. Everyone that played sent me beer.

 

[lupulinaddict]

Thanks guys. If there is someone I missed then that’s on me. Let me know when you can @TallDan.

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

I still don't undestand the absentee owners this year. It wasn't like they quit because their teams were bad after a few weeks--they've done no management since the draft.

Were they new to the league this year, or did they participate in a previous year [and send beer] and just ghosted the 2021 season?

 

[TallDan]

So, @sonic7173 (Bo Knows) hasn't logged in here on HBT since January, didn't ship beer, and is one of the absentee owners. I'm guessing his team was autodrafted. He shouldn't have been in the league.

@_BullDog_ did you send beer?

 

[TallDan]

@troglodytes hasn't logged in here since july either, he's the other 1-11 abentee. He did send beer, but if he hasn't logged in here since July, probably also autodrafted and was just defaulted into the league since he was in it last year.

 

[lupulinaddict]

Thanks for doing the research @TallDan. I think I defaulted both in. Sonic was in the other other league also, and shipped. I must have assumed he shipped the ppr too. It doesn’t look like I sent confirmation pm’s this year, and I should have. I believe both those guys have been in for a couple years, I’m pretty sure troglodytes won a year or two ago, I must have assumed he was in again. Regardless, my fumble, and I’ll make sure the winner gets a few extra beers on me to make up for it.

I can’t remember which league, but someone hadn’t shipped by draft, but contacted the champ and made arrangements around draft time. Is that bulldog?


Moving forward, I’ll have to send messages to those that aren’t following/responding to the thread and get each confirmed like in the past.

We should also try to make a point to have the winner post a pic, or at the least a mention of the package arriving. Most winners have done this already, and it really helps keep everything transparent and trackable when we need it.

 

[TallDan]

I posted a pic in this thread of each package i received, so I looked back at posts and my PMs to see who had shipped. Post numbers below.

@Chorgey (bar flies) 452
@3 Dawg Night (imperial mild) 454
@TBC (big gulps) 455
@troglodytes (birds of war) 457
@lupulinaddict (fill my kupp) 468
@sonic7173 (BO knows) ??
@_BullDog_ (dawg pound) ??

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

Don't worry. I'll make sure to post pics of all the beer I receive

 

[TallDan]

Thanks guys. If there is someone I missed then that’s on me. Let me know when you can @TallDan.

Going back to quote this because it's not all on you. I should have kept better track of things and called it out before the draft. I was a bit too relaxed on it because I know that I'm a slacker and slow to ship things.

Now I'm awkwardly calling out two people after the fact, which isn't fair to them. So @sonic7173 and @_BullDog_ : I'm pretty sure I didn't lose track of any shipments, but if you did ship and I didn't post a pic here, remind me what you sent. If I don't remember it, untappd likely will. Sorry for not being out in front of this.

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

Current standings, assuming that Kendrick Bourne doesn't just absolutely go off tonight. If he does, swap Big Gulps and Dawg Pound below:

Hop To It: 9-4
Big Gulps: 9-4
Dawg Pound: 8-5
fill my KUPP: 8-5
Big Wheel Brewing: 8-5
Mr IPA and Mrs Blonde: 8-5
Just Joshin: 7-6
Bar Flies: 7-6
HBT Football Team: 7-6
LoneTreeFarms: 5-8
Birds of War: 1-12
Bo Knows: 1-12

Outlook:

(Below matchups assume Big Gulps prevails tonight, except where noted.)

At most 4 teams can still reach 10-5 as the record, so 10-5 automatically gets you in. For the top two at 9-4, one more win gets you in. The next 4 teams at 8-5 each have games against one of the other 8-5 teams, which means that in any possible scenario, we will have at least four 9-6 teams. As a result, finishing 8-7 means you CANNOT make the playoffs.

So the minimum bar to hit is 9-6 to have a chance with tiebreakers, and 10-5 is automatic.

Hop To It: Bo Knows and LoneTreeFarms remaining, so worst case is probably 10-5 facing Bo Knows, best case is 11-4. Pretty much a lock for the playoffs.

Big Gulps: HBT Football Team and Bar Flies remaining. Best case is 11-4, worst case is 9-6. 10-5 will be an automatic lock for any team in the playoffs, but 9-6 might be in a big messy tiebreaker scenario. So Big Gulps needs one more win against either opponent to be a lock to the playoffs. If Dawg Pound DOES win tonight, then Big Gulps needs two wins for 10-5 and a loss to either HBT Football Team or Bar Flies makes it messy at 9-6.

Dawg Pound: Remaining is Mr IPA and Mrs Blonde and Bo Knows. Best case is 10-5, worst case realistically is 9-6 with Bo Knows still on the schedule. Only one of Mr IPA and Mrs Blonde and Dawg Pound can reach 10-5. Which makes this week a big one for Dawg Pound--a win makes it pretty likely to go to the playoffs. If Dawg Pound DOES win tonight, then due to facing Bo Knows, Dawg Pound would be basically a lock for 10-5 worst case with a chance at 11-4 if they win against Mr IPA and Mrs Blonde.

fill my KUPP: Remaining is Just Joshin and Big Wheel Brewing. Best case is 10-5, worst case is 8-7. Only one of fill my KUPP and Big Wheel Brewing can reach 10-5. Both games are both winnable and losable. fill my KUPP is the points leader on the season, so I think the team is better than the record here, but with Just Joshin and Big Wheel Brewing not being absentee teams, either one could knock off fill my KUPP.

Big Wheel Brewing: Remaining is LoneTreeFarms and fill my KUPP. Best case is 10-5, and worst case is 8-7. Only one of fill my KUPP and Big Wheel Brewing can reach 10-5. Again both games are winnable and both are losable, which means that depending on the results this week, week 15 could be an elimination shootout between Big Wheel Brewing and fill my KUPP both trying to reach 10-5, or it could be a desperation game of 8-6 teams both trying to reach 9-6 and hope to get into the playoffs based on tiebreakers.

Mr IPA and Mrs Blonde: Remaining is Dawg Pound and HBT Football Team. Best case is 10-5, worst case is 8-7. Only one of Mr IPA and Mrs Blonde and Dawg Pound can reach 10-5. I haven't looked at all the tiebreakers, but I've been pretty consistently at the back of tiebreakers due to H2H2H2H records, so I'll only feel comfortable if I can get to 10-5. Not sure I fare well in any 9-6 tiebreakers.

Just Joshin: Remaining is fill my KUPP and Birds of War. Best case is 9-6 and worst realistic case is 8-7 with Birds of War remaining. That makes this week a must win matchup against fill my KUPP.

Bar Flies: Remaining is Birds of War and Big Gulps. Best case is 9-6 and worst realistic case is 8-7 with Birds of War remaining. Week 15 against Big Gulps thus becomes a must win to have any shot.

HBT Football Team: Remaining is Big Gulps and Mr IPA and Mrs Blonde. The hardest remaining schedule of any 7-6 team without facing any absentee teams, and both are must win games.

LoneTreeFarms: Remaining is Big Wheel Brewing and Hop To It. Eliminated from playoff contention, best possible finish of 7-8. However, can still potentially play spoiler to Big Wheel Brewing to ensure that team doesn't reach 10 wins and gets stuck into a tiebreaker. Hop To It still has Bo Knows on the schedule, so LoneTreeFarms probably cannot ruin Hop To It's playoff chance.

 

[TBC]

Current standings, assuming that Kendrick Bourne doesn't just absolutely go off tonight. If he does, swap Big Gulps and Dawg Pound below:

Hop To It: 9-4
Big Gulps: 9-4
Dawg Pound: 8-5
fill my KUPP: 8-5
Big Wheel Brewing: 8-5
Mr IPA and Mrs Blonde: 8-5
Just Joshin: 7-6
Bar Flies: 7-6
HBT Football Team: 7-6
LoneTreeFarms: 5-8
Birds of War: 1-12
Bo Knows: 1-12

Outlook:

(Below matchups assume Big Gulps prevails tonight, except where noted.)

At most 4 teams can still reach 10-5 as the record, so 10-5 automatically gets you in. For the top two at 9-4, one more win gets you in. The next 4 teams at 8-5 each have games against one of the other 8-5 teams, which means that in any possible scenario, we will have at least four 9-6 teams. As a result, finishing 8-7 means you CANNOT make the playoffs.

So the minimum bar to hit is 9-6 to have a chance with tiebreakers, and 10-5 is automatic.

Hop To It: Bo Knows and LoneTreeFarms remaining, so worst case is probably 10-5 facing Bo Knows, best case is 11-4. Pretty much a lock for the playoffs.

Big Gulps: HBT Football Team and Bar Flies remaining. Best case is 11-4, worst case is 9-6. 10-5 will be an automatic lock for any team in the playoffs, but 9-6 might be in a big messy tiebreaker scenario. So Big Gulps needs one more win against either opponent to be a lock to the playoffs. If Dawg Pound DOES win tonight, then Big Gulps needs two wins for 10-5 and a loss to either HBT Football Team or Bar Flies makes it messy at 9-6.

Dawg Pound: Remaining is Mr IPA and Mrs Blonde and Bo Knows. Best case is 10-5, worst case realistically is 9-6 with Bo Knows still on the schedule. Only one of Mr IPA and Mrs Blonde and Dawg Pound can reach 10-5. Which makes this week a big one for Dawg Pound--a win makes it pretty likely to go to the playoffs. If Dawg Pound DOES win tonight, then due to facing Bo Knows, Dawg Pound would be basically a lock for 10-5 worst case with a chance at 11-4 if they win against Mr IPA and Mrs Blonde.

fill my KUPP: Remaining is Just Joshin and Big Wheel Brewing. Best case is 10-5, worst case is 8-7. Only one of fill my KUPP and Big Wheel Brewing can reach 10-5. Both games are both winnable and losable. fill my KUPP is the points leader on the season, so I think the team is better than the record here, but with Just Joshin and Big Wheel Brewing not being absentee teams, either one could knock off fill my KUPP.

Big Wheel Brewing: Remaining is LoneTreeFarms and fill my KUPP. Best case is 10-5, and worst case is 8-7. Only one of fill my KUPP and Big Wheel Brewing can reach 10-5. Again both games are winnable and both are losable, which means that depending on the results this week, week 15 could be an elimination shootout between Big Wheel Brewing and fill my KUPP both trying to reach 10-5, or it could be a desperation game of 8-6 teams both trying to reach 9-6 and hope to get into the playoffs based on tiebreakers.

Mr IPA and Mrs Blonde: Remaining is Dawg Pound and HBT Football Team. Best case is 10-5, worst case is 8-7. Only one of Mr IPA and Mrs Blonde and Dawg Pound can reach 10-5. I haven't looked at all the tiebreakers, but I've been pretty consistently at the back of tiebreakers due to H2H2H2H records, so I'll only feel comfortable if I can get to 10-5. Not sure I fare well in any 9-6 tiebreakers.

Just Joshin: Remaining is fill my KUPP and Birds of War. Best case is 9-6 and worst realistic case is 8-7 with Birds of War remaining. That makes this week a must win matchup against fill my KUPP.

Bar Flies: Remaining is Birds of War and Big Gulps. Best case is 9-6 and worst realistic case is 8-7 with Birds of War remaining. Week 15 against Big Gulps thus becomes a must win to have any shot.

HBT Football Team: Remaining is Big Gulps and Mr IPA and Mrs Blonde. The hardest remaining schedule of any 7-6 team without facing any absentee teams, and both are must win games.

LoneTreeFarms: Remaining is Big Wheel Brewing and Hop To It. Eliminated from playoff contention, best possible finish of 7-8. However, can still potentially play spoiler to Big Wheel Brewing to ensure that team doesn't reach 10 wins and gets stuck into a tiebreaker. Hop To It still has Bo Knows on the schedule, so LoneTreeFarms probably cannot ruin Hop To It's playoff chance.

You sir have too much time on your hands. Although I did enjoy reading your break down. I’m hoping Kendrick Bourne is a dud. His top performance was a 23 I believe, so as long as he doesn’t break that I‘m good.

I‘m thankful @DawgPound left David Johnson in! Now having said that I might need to scour QB options because Lamar has been killing me lately along with Leonard Fournette last week.

 

[TallDan]

Outstanding analysis @betarhoalphadelta !

I was wondering how big of an impact the absentees have been, so checked their schedules, each team plays four opponents twice:

Birds of War: Dawg Pound, HBT Football Team, Bar Flies, Just Joshin
Bo Knows: Lone Tree Farms, Big Wheel Brewing, Hop to It, Dawg Pound

Big Gulps, Fill my Kupp, Mr IPA and Mrs Blonde only play each absentee once.

So, Dawg Pound has the most games against them, playing each team twice

Realistically, week 1 is almost a non-issue, they autodrafted decent teams. Week 2, the absentees still put up decent numbers, but by week 3 things were going downhill fast, then when bye weeks came into play the dumpsters were set on fire.

Overall, they're certainly a factor here, but it doesn't seem like it worked out to a major advantage for anyone. Biggest impact here in the last two weeks is probably that Big Gulps and Fill my Kupp more vulnerable because they don't play a gimmie game.

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

And bear in mind, Bar Flies lost to Bo Knows, in week 6, so it certainly wasn't a big advantage then!

And in recent weeks the absentee teams have gotten a little tougher with some players coming off IR.

I doubt it will be enough to upset any of the contending teams still with remaining games against the absentees, but all it takes is one bad week when that team has a couple players go off... It can happen.

 

[_BullDog_]

Going back to quote this because it's not all on you. I should have kept better track of things and called it out before the draft. I was a bit too relaxed on it because I know that I'm a slacker and slow to ship things.

Now I'm awkwardly calling out two people after the fact, which isn't fair to them. So @sonic7173 and @_BullDog_ : I'm pretty sure I didn't lose track of any shipments, but if you did ship and I didn't post a pic here, remind me what you sent. If I don't remember it, untappd likely will. Sorry for not being out in front of this.

I actually bought the beer a few weeks ago, hope to send soon.

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

Well that was an interesting game...

 

[lupulinaddict]

Going back to quote this because it's not all on you. I should have kept better track of things and called it out before the draft. I was a bit too relaxed on it because I know that I'm a slacker and slow to ship things.

Now I'm awkwardly calling out two people after the fact, which isn't fair to them. So @sonic7173 and @_BullDog_ : I'm pretty sure I didn't lose track of any shipments, but if you did ship and I didn't post a pic here, remind me what you sent. If I don't remember it, untappd likely will. Sorry for not being out in front of this.

No worries on my end. I just don’t want to let the group down. It’s definitely better to have a full and active league, and definitely best to get more beer in the mail! Thanks for being a good sport @TallDan.

 

[lupulinaddict]

I actually bought the beer a few weeks ago, hope to send soon.

Thanks for checking in and keeping your word.

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

What we know before MNF:

• Hop To It predictably moves to 10-4 with a win over Bo Knows (barring a 90-point Hopkins night) and is now locked into the playoffs.
• Mr IPA and Mrs Blonde (me) moves to 9-5 with a win over Dawg Pound. I face HBT Football Team next week, and a win in that game would be a lock for the playoffs.
• Bar Flies moves to 8-6 with a predictable win over Birds of War. Next week Bar Flies faces Big Gulps, and based on the likely projections (see below) that is likely to be a pivotal game for both teams.

MNF can be pivotal for quite a few teams though:

• Big Gulps (9-4) has the lead over HBT Football Team (7-6), but HBTFT is projected above BG by 8 points with Kyler Murray and James Conner remaining tonight. Given the scoring rules give QBs 0.5 points per completion which don't show up in the projections, I think there's high likelihood HBTFT wins, especially as this game projects to be a shootout. This is important because this was an elimination game for HBTFT's playoff hopes, and a win for BG would have locked that team into the playoffs. Barring injury, though, this is likely to be a win for HBTFT and keep that team alive.
• Just Joshin has the lead and the projected final over fill my KUPP, with JJ's current score exceeding fmK's projection. JJ has Christian Kirk tonight, and fmK has Cooper Kupp and the AZ kicker, Matt Gay, left to play. In a shootout, this one could absolutely go either way. It's an elimination game for JJ, as a loss would make the playoffs impossible. It's also a big game for fmK, as moving to 8-6 would make next week a must-win just to get an opportunity in a 9-6 tiebreaker to get into the playoffs.
• Big Wheel Brewing has a huge (64) point lead over LoneTreeFarms. BWB is finished and LTF has Matt Stafford and Sony Michel left to play. The projections only have LTF making up 33 of those 64 points, but as mentioned the projections don't reflect the 0.5 points per completion boost to QB numbers. Stafford averages 24 completions per game, which could be another 12 points. This one COULD be close. For LTF it's not a big deal as that team is eliminated from the playoffs, but knocking off BWB would move BWB to 8-6, making next week's game against fmK huge. A win for BWB and a win next week would be automatic for the playoffs at 10-5. A loss this week means best case is 9-6 and in tiebreaker.

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

HBTFT, JJ, and BWB all won. So here are the standings:

1. Hop To It (10-4)
2. Mr IPA and Mrs Blonde (9-5)
3. Big Gulps (9-5)
4. Big Wheel Brewing (9-5)
5. Bar Flies (8-6)
6. fill my KUPP (8-6)
7. Just Joshin (8-6)
8. HBT Football Team (8-6)
9. Dawg Pound (8-6)

Hop To It is now locked into the playoffs. Facing LoneTreeFarms, who is already eliminated, so LTF cannot play spoiler to a team this week.

The three 9-5 teams are locked into the playoffs with a win this week. Crucially, though, none of them face the derelict teams of the league, so all games would be expected to be competitive.

Three of the 8-6 teams, HBT FT, fill my KUPP, and Bar Flies, face an 9-5 team.

The other two 8-6 teams face the derelicts, so unless they completely implode, they should improve to 9-6.

Nobody (except Hop To It) has an easy path to the playoffs.

So we have some wild possible scenarios:

• The chalk: All three 9-5 teams win, and our four playoff teams are set.
• The chaos: All three 9-5 teams lose, and we have a crazy 8-way tie at 9-6 and I'm not even going to contemplate the tiebreakers involved. I literally think nobody will then know who is in the playoffs until the standings update Tuesday morning, because the NFL.com platform doesn't make it very easy to come up with each team's H2H record against all other tied teams.
• Somewhere in the middle. For any team that ends at 9-6, they'll be sweating the tiebreakers. Exactly which teams end up in that tie could WILDLY sway the playoff chances.

The tiebreaker isn't total points, it's H2H amongst tied teams. So there could be a situation where a team stuck at 9-6 at the end of this could have played and beat, or played and lost to, another team that can potentially finish 9-6 twice with the double-plays. If you had a 2-0 record against one of those teams and they either win to go 10-5 or lose to go 8-6, that's terrible for your playoff chances because 2 wins against the teams you're tied with disappear. If you had an 0-2 record against one of those teams, and they either win to go 10-5 or lose to go 8-6, that dramatically HELPS you in the tiebreakers because those two losses are gone from your H2H among tied teams.

Gonna be a crazy week!

 

[Chorgey]

Gonna be a crazy week!

You do an awesome job at breaking everything down!
I love reading your takes!

Cheers!
Kevin (Bar Flies)

 

[TallDan]

Well, it’s looking a little like the NFL is headed for the chaos this week. Will our league follow suit?

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

Well, it’s looking a little like the NFL is headed for the chaos this week. Will our league follow suit?

I've been worried. I didn't do any fantasy football in 2020 because I figured on top of managing rosters through bye weeks, injuries, player busts, etc, I didn't want to have to manage through players being out due to COVID on top of it... Looks like the next couple weeks could be interesting for all of us.