PPR Fantasy Football

[_BullDog_]

No problem. I was offering to be in if needed but don’t really have the time this season. Enjoy and I’ll send beer soon for last season

 

[lupulinaddict]

No problem. I was offering to be in if needed but don’t really have the time this season. Enjoy and I’ll send beer soon for last season

Sounds good. @TallDan will appreciate the beers

 

[lupulinaddict]

To Clarify....
We are at 12, and need two additional players to get to 14.
I think it is best to move forward where we stand and continue as planned.

 

[Thorrak]

I’m cool with whatever!

 

[Chorgey]

Just to play it safe, maybe attempt the 14 teams next year

 

[pshankstar]

I’m looking forward to our draft tonight at 8:00pm EST.

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

https://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy-fo...e-more-accurate-than-you-think-202229430.html

Wow. Teams Yahoo grades as a C win 50% of their matchups on average.

Teams that are graded as A+ must be a lot better, right? Nope. 52.9%.

F? Much worse, right? Not THAT bad... 43.2%

And THIS was the article that they wrote to defend their grades?!?!

 

[troglodytes]

Woohoo! I'm finally back in.

The draft grading has always been horrible. Another thing is that I don't think it takes league settings into consideration, like the 3WR vs standard 2. I take pride in getting Fs

BTW, do we have a draft order?

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

BTW, do we have a draft order?

IIRC it'll let us into the draft client 30 minutes prior to the draft.

So 9 minutes from now.

 

[gromitdj]

Being the world champion, we should confirm you are fine with @gromitdj shipping later than intended??

I promise I’m good for it. Ask around, I’ve never not fulfilled a commitment. Also, if I don’t, @Thorrak will cover me.

 

[lupulinaddict]

I promise I’m good for it. Ask around, I’ve never not fulfilled a commitment. Also, if I don’t, @Thorrak will cover me.

I know you're good for it. You, me and @TBC are one of the og's of the league!

 

[Thorrak]

I promise I’m good for it. Ask around, I’ve never not fulfilled a commitment. Also, if I don’t, @Thorrak will cover me.

True.

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

Alright, so we've drafted.

Here's a pop quiz. Take a look at each team's roster / depth charts.

Give me the top 2 or 3 teams that you least want to face given their roster. I.e. give a power ranking of what you see out there. If possible, try to give the reasoning for why those 2-3 teams look stout.

I have my answer already in mind, but I'm not going to state it up front and prejudice this exercise.

 

[TallDan]

ALTHOUGH THEY STRETCHED FOR SOME EARLY PICKS, MILWAUKEE MUGGERS HOPES TO FACTOR INTO THE PLAYOFF PICTURE​

Draft Grade	Proj Record	Proj Finish
B​	7-7	T6​

 

[troglodytes]

For me its:

1: Prestige Worldwide. Just way to solid all around between ETN/Brooks, and Tyreek/Higgins. And then there's Murray @ QB and MAndrews to deal with
2: Finger Lakes Fury. Allen @ QB, then Achane, Mixon, and Olave scare me.
3: Chorgey. Hurts, Breece & Evans are extremely strong in our scoring format. On top of that I wouldn't be surprised if if Rice and JSN are every week starters down the stretch.

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

Those jerks. I'm going to outperform this!

(As long as Saquon/JT stay healthy lol)

 

[TBC]

Hopefully I can outperform their prediction or I’ll have to fire the GM.

Also, How can you be predicted to have 1 win and finish last and the grade is a B-. That should be a D or F.

 

[Chorgey]

The best grade that NFL.com has ever given me. I'm not sure how to take that.
B- and finishing 8th...

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

Teams I don't want to face (not necessarily in order--not going that deep):

• Bar Flies - Chorgey: There's just so much damn upside on this roster. Breece is a beast. Derrick Henry in Baltimore with Lamar Jackson taking a lot of defensive attention might return to his old form. Jalen Hurts, Kincaid at TE, and the 'Boys DST. All solid. A lot of potential at WR--I think JSN will excel in his second year with a new OC, Rice might be Mahomes favorite non-TE passcatcher, and Mike Williams could be a big target for Aaron Rodgers throwing deep. Risks: If the WRs bust more than boom, it'll pull down the balance. And at RB, you have Jerome Ford who may be relegated to backup once Chubb is back, Allgeier is a backup, and Derrick Henry is old for an RB. I think Henry's body is more durable than most who face the RB age cliff, but maybe this is the year that Derrick Henry ceases to be Derrick Henry.
• Bones are their Money: Holy WRs, Batman! Garrett Wilson and Puka Nacua are already a great start. But adding in Jaylen Waddle as part of that crazy Miami offense, Zay Flowers who along with Andrews is a favorite target of Lamar, and then you have guys like Josh Palmer who was a steal late in the draft as a proven contributor for Herbert, and Christian Watson because SOMEONE is going to have to catch the ball in GB. Ok, so he loaded up on WR. Then how did he get Josh Jacobs and Alvin Kamara? And Tony Pollard who is ostensibly going to be the starter in Ten, and a flier of a pick in Dobbins who we know will be in an offense that can run the ball. And Charbonnet who is one Walker injury away from being a bellcow. Then he managed to wait on QB and pick up Dak in the 8th. Dak is in a virtual tie for 3rd place in number of completions projected this year, and at 0.5 ppc, that's going to help--and his top WR just got PAID. Risks: Took a flier on a rookie TE which could be boom or bust. And that RB corps could be great--or could be terrible. AK is in decline on a bad team, JK is injury prone, Pollard could get passed by Spears (also potentially on a bad team), Charbonnet is a CLEAR #2 who won't have standalone value minus a Walker injury. Josh Jacobs is the only one I really trust there.

Honorable mention would be Big Gulps. Really solid at QB, TE, and WR. Questionable at RB though. I'd have skipped Tua and Freiermuth and tried to grab some lotto ticket RBs, or would have skipped Lamar in the 4th for a proven RB and hoped to get a QB later--I think Tua is going to be a great one but you can only start one.

 

[pshankstar]

Wow I did that bad, huh?
@betarhoalphadelta how did we end up with similar records and rankings?
I fear your team the most because of this and having a slightly higher letter grade.

 

[VirginiaHops1]

Those grades/rankings/records are wonky. I feel like a homebrewer wrote that algorithm

I got a B also but projected to go 10-4. They seem to like my WRs

Looks like a lot of good teams to me. I think it’ll take a couple weeks to see which teams are gonna be a problem

 

[lupulinaddict]

I think beer is my patronus is strong. I forget about the IR and he made a clutch move stashing Chubb for the stretch.

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

Wow I did that bad, huh?
@betarhoalphadelta how did we end up with similar records and rankings?
I fear your team the most because of this and having a slightly higher letter grade.

Your draft was... Interesting

Huge upside on your roster. If the stars align, you'll be unstoppable. Or you could be really bad. Can't tell yet.

I think beer is my patronus is strong. I forget about the IR and he made a clutch move stashing Chubb for the stretch.

Yeah, I was planning to do the same.

 

[pshankstar]

Your draft was... Interesting

Huge upside on your roster. If the stars align, you'll be unstoppable. Or you could be really bad. Can't tell yet.



Yeah, I was planning to do the same.

Living in “Bills Country” it’s their year! But then again they say that every year.
I get a lot of $h1t for being a Pats fan from my Bills friends. Anyhow, having Allen as my QB will allow me to enjoy watching the Bills this year.

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

Living in “Bills Country” it’s their year! But then again they say that every year.
I get a lot of $h1t for being a Pats fan from my Bills friends. Anyhow, having Allen as my QB will allow me to enjoy watching the Bills this year.

LOL. As "Mrs Blonde" says, there are no feelings in fantasy football. She absolutely hates Tom Brady, but she had him on her team a few times over the years. Because points are points

You taking Allen at 1.03 surprised me. Over my years in fantasy football, I've gone from "Who cares what QB you have? Just stream the position!" to "If you can get an elite QB at the right draft slot, jump right on that!" Some years it works. Some it doesn't. When you took Allen at 1.03 I immediately thought I was out on elite QBs and would be taking one late hoping to get someone I liked. Drafting 1.12/2.01 is not a place where I'm taking QB, and I thought your pick would start a run on QBs and nobody elite would be available when I got to 3.12/4.01. Mahomes for example has been going early-mid 3rd in 12-teamers, and I figured with Allen off the board we'd start seeing a run maybe even in the 2nd. So I was shocked to be the second manager taking a QB off the board at 3.12.

The more interesting pick on your team, to me, is Achane. This is one of those "this guy could be the reason Fury wins the league or finishes near the bottom" picks. The upside on that dude is insane. He produced really incredible fantasy points on a very limited number of touches last year. He's like Alvin Kamara and Tyreek Hill had a baby. From what I read in camp, they want to use him all over the field too, something they didn't do as much last year. But on the other hand, the question is exactly how many touches he'll get. I think they'll rely on Mostert for the bulk of standard "running back" duties. Then obviously you've got Tyreek and Warren who are going to get the ball. Miami drafted Achane's stunt double in Jaylen Wright (yeah, I drafted this dude on my team for a reason lol), a guy who has a very similar skill set and speed. And it's Miami, so they've got a TON of weapons to spread it around.

Your roster is one of those that has the potential to throw down a 200-point week at any given time this year. In that sense, any manager in this league should be afraid to face you. Because if everyone on that roster goes off at once, it's going to be nuts.

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

Okay, so we didn't get a lot of traction on "rate the teams you don't want to face" question. But we're still in the honeymoon period where we've drafted a team, we haven't seen a bunch of players go down injured, and we're all hopeful to crush our opposition through the use of our expert draft strategies. I always like to hear about other people's thought processes. So here's a new task.

Take us through your draft. What did you expect to happen going in? Why did you take certain players in certain spots? When all is said and done and you look at your roster, how do you think you did?

For me, I've always tended towards ZeroRB builds. Usually if you're early in the draft order, that can sometimes become HeroRB, because having the top RB in the league is always valuable. That's how I ended up with CMC last year picking 1.02. Late in drafts, though, usually find that the no-brainer RBs have already been taken and some quite valuable WRs have fallen to that spot. So when I rolled in and saw that I was picking 12th, I immediately expected that it would be a ZeroRB build.

The other thing that worried me about picking 12th is that it meant that after 1.12/2.01, I wouldn't pick again until 3.12/4.01. As I mentioned in my last post, I've come around on the value of an elite QB. Not so much that I'll force it, but that I'll take a top 4-5 QB if they're there. Well, in various ADP places I'd looked, Allen, Hurts, and Mahomes were all going before that 36th pick. So I was thinking I'd end up having to push downward and get a guy I liked later.

So what happened when my picks were up? Let's look into it. I'll group them since I picked back to back.

• 1.12 / 2.01: Ok, ZeroRB, right? Yeah... Not so much. I liked Garrett Wilson and thought I'd have a shot, but he was gone at pick 10. I'm not picking MHJr this high as he hasn't proven he's worth the risk yet. I feel like Puka is set to regress. I like Davante, but he's getting older and I don't like that team. And then Drake London... Nope. New QB coming of a big injury, new coaching staff, and maybe with Bijan/Pitts might not return that level of value. And then who's there? Well, two running backs who have the potential to finish RB1 overall, because both have done it in their careers. Saquon is finally on a good team, and JT is going to be a bellcow. Nobody else on the depth charts worries me. If these two can stay healthy, they could possibly finish as the top two RBs at the end of the year. If they don't, well, I'm probably screwed.
• 3.12 / 4.01: Okay, surprised this happened. As mentioned I didn't see Mahomes falling to me here. I had to hit smash on that. Was amazed that nobody (other than Fury) had made a run at QBs yet. I think Mahomes is going to have a big year, has some serious talent at WR, still has Kelce, and with our scoring, a high-volume passing offense is great. Also needed a receiver. DK Metcalf is a guy that has sometimes caused me a lot of heartburn. He is an absolute physical freak. I think he's got the physical skills to be a top 5 WR. But it hasn't come together. My hope is that with a new coaching staff, including the OC coming in from University of Washington having run a high-flying fast paced passing offense, it'll unlock Metcalf's value. Behind him I was also considering Jaylen Warren, because any piece of that Miami offense is valuable. But Metcalf's upside if the new coaching staff does what I think they're capable of doing is just huge.
• 5.12/6.01: Okay, now we're getting into the nuts and bolts. Kelce was off the board between 3.12, which might be better as he's getting old (although I took him in the 2nd round of my 20-team league). Behind him I really like Evan Engram. He's got a really strong rapport with Trevor Lawrence, basically plays as a WR in TE body, and gets a lot of targets. You could call this one a reach, but I think he's undervalued per ADP. Some draft boards had him going in the 7th, but I didn't pick until 7.12, so I went with him. Then, another WR. Ended up with Terry McLaurin. Somewhat speculative here, but Terry is someone who can take the top off a defense and Jayden Daniels is known for throwing a beautiful deep ball. Where I worry, though is that his average finish has been WR24 over the past 5 years, with his best ever finish being WR14. But I think it's a safe pick, because he's going to get target volume and his worst ever finish was WR32. I think the QB upgrade should make that low-end WR2 / top-end WR3 area his floor. Hoping for upside with a new QB.
• 7.12/8.01: Another pair of WRs. Also a pair that are highly speculative. Ladd McConkey is a rookie who is thought to be the WR1 in the Chargers offense. An offense that is expected to be run-heavy with HC Jim Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman. But... I don't think this team can win with that, and they have Justin Freakin' Herbert at QB. They're going to have to throw the ball, and it's just a matter of who catches it. So this pick might come back to bite me in the ass, if the targets end up going to Palmer, Johnston, and Rice. But Palmer's never been "the guy", so there's opportunity. This is an upside pick but felt after the way the rest of my roster was coming together, one I needed. Then I get Xavier Worthy. Another rookie, this guy known as a speedster. And on the Chiefs, where we know the quality of the team and the QB will give him opportunities. That said, if Mahomes is zeroing in on Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce, it could meant that the opportunities aren't as numerous as I'd like. At the 7/8 turn, you have to take what you can get. Hoping at least one of these two pays off at >WR3 value.
• 9.12/10.01: I can't leave a draft with only 2 RBs, of course, and now we're starting to get into the part of the draft where you're looking for players who at least have a path. I need another RB. Tyjae Spears might be in an RBBC on a bad team, but he's going to be part of that offense. It might be a 1A/1B situation and he's the 1B. However, its not clear how good Tony Pollard really is at this stage of his career. What happens if Spears becomes 1A? And looking at who was behind Spears on the RB board... I didn't have a choice. So maybe I'm just talking myself into this one. Then I took Khalil Shakir. As I saw it he was falling down the board and was just too much value to pass on. With Diggs no longer being in Buffalo, I think he's going to return more than 10th round value. I could make an argument for Sutton/Samuel who went after him. And if someone who doesn't have such severe burn scars from Jerry Jeudy as I do wants to make the argument that his talent will be unlocked in Cleveland, I'm not gonna argue. But I'm not touching Jeudy lol.
• 11.12/12.01: Okay, I've got one TE. I was looking at both Chubb and TJ Hock with the idea of grabbing them, stashing them in reserve, and making room for lotto tickets. Chubb was gone before I had a chance, but I got Hock. This is one pick that I think might be useless, though. Let's say he comes back once healthy and now he and Engram are coin flip of each other. There's not a lot of trading in this league, so I might not have a great way to unload him and get value back but also not have enough sitting on the waiver wire to justify dropping. But I'm going to hope that he comes back, shows value, and I'll figure it out then. Behind him I've got Romeo Doubs. This is another situation like the Chargers. SOMEONE in Green Bay is going to be catching passes. Right now we don't have any good idea who "the guy" will be. But it might be Doubs, and getting hm at 12.01 could pay off a lot more value than expected. That said, there are a couple guys taken right after him that I could make the similar argument. Adam Thielen has always been a bit of a surprising volume play. Big Mike Williams (BMW) on the Jets with Rodgers chucking him deep balls could pay off. Dontayvion Wicks also in GB could end up being "the guy" and has a lot of hype around him. But I felt good with Doubs.
• 13.12/14.01: And here we get to my screwup. I could have sworn we were in the final 2 rounds. So I took defense and kicker. I guess this explains why I got the Jets, who are a MUCH better defense than I'd have gotten if I'd waited until 15.11. So at least I did get ONE benefit out of my own stupidity.
• 15.11/16.01: Lotto ticket time. I said up above that getting pieces of the Miami offense is smart. This is one of those pieces that may not see a lot of action as long as Achane is healthy, but Jaylen Wright is basically an Achane clone drafted to be his backup and slot directly into the gameplan if Achane isn't available. And then Wan'Dale Robinson, who honestly was just picked because he's there. The biggest issue with Robinson is that the Giants might just suck. He's supposed to be a very shifty slot receiver, going into his third year, and maybe he'll have a breakout especially now that Saquon isn't there.

Overall, I was pretty pleased with my draft. I realize those first two picks are risk/reward. Just gotta hope they stay healthy, or my RB corps is decimated. But if healthy I think they're both going to produce above 1.12/2.01 level results. I'm happy with where I ended up with QB, TE, and Defense (even if unintentional). I've got a depth at WR but the question remains whether there's going to be big payoffs from any of them, or if I'm basically rostering a collection of WR2/WR3/borderline Flex guys.

Would love to hear from everyone else how and why you did what you did as well...

 

[lupulinaddict]

Well $hit, I just went with the RDWHAHB strategy!

 

[gromitdj]

Yeah. You think I put way more thought into drafting than I actually do.

My typical thought process: “He looks pretty good, I’ll take ‘em”

 

[gromitdj]

The good news: this is probably the best grade I’ve ever gotten. I’m always firmly in the C+ range.

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

LFG!

 

[TallDan]

Anyone else having problems with the app and website?

 

[Chorgey]

Anyone else having problems with the app and website?

Yeah, I cannot get into the app. The website was not working earlier, then started to work again... and now it's stopped working again.

 

[TallDan]

Just received from @gromitdj Thanks!

 

[TallDan]

Well, i didn’t have much opinion before, but if i can’t even stay signed in to the app or website, i wish we were on a different platform for this league. WTF, NFL.

 

[gromitdj]

Sorry so late! Hope you enjoy(ed)!

 

[Spundit]

Well, i didn’t have much opinion before, but if i can’t even stay signed in to the app or website, i wish we were on a different platform for this league. WTF, NFL.

Yeah, I could get one earlier but not now. The ESPN fantasy app is.working.

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

Wonder what the heck is going on. It's not like the quantity of traffic should have surprised them.

 

[pshankstar]

Now I need Zuerlein to pull a hamstring during warmups.

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

I guess one advantage of the site not working is that I didn't have to watch my team implode before my eyes, squander a huge lead, in advance of almost assuredly losing in a rout tonight.

 

[Spundit]

I guess one advantage of the site not working is that I didn't have to watch my team implode before my eyes, squander a huge lead, in advance of almost assuredly losing in a rout tonight.

The CMC late scratch made it interesting.