The two best teams in each conference (Pats/Colt and Pack/'Boys) are, I believe, head-and-shoulders better than the teams they are facing. The Jags would scare me more if I thought Garrard could make some plays downfield. A well-coached team can always take away at least one thing that the other guys do well; you can always take away the run OR the pass, not always both. Belichick will bring Rodney up to the line of scrimmage and take away the run game, or at least limit the damage. You know the Pats will put points on the board; they'll be aggressive early and try and force Jacksonville to play catch-up (not their forte). Asante's pretty much a shut-down corner at this point, so that's not going to leave Garrard too many places to put the ball.
The Colts are good - damn good - and I ain't betting on a Norv Turner team (especially one with an above-average number of hotheads) in the playoffs. If Gates is out, they're in even worse shape.