I'll just lay this out on the table for anyone interested.....
For grins and giggles, I just did something I have never done before... I have in fact been tracking various data on a spreadsheet for every all-grain batch I have ever brewed since 2005.... and I just plotted mash pH vs. final beer quality for >60 all-grain batches from 2005-2016:
All mash pH values are reported at room temperature, with more than half calculated by trusted software that has reflected true values, and nearly half verified by actual measurements on paper test strips to the best of my ability.
I have always maintained a goal for mash pH of 5.3, plus or minus a little, while knowing and expecting that in many cases especially for lighter colored beers without a lot of specialty malts, it is very difficult to get much below 5.5 without addition of acid or acidulated malt, which I have done only once or twice in my career, opting instead for use of distilled water and a lot of CaCl2 and gypsum and light crystal malts instead to try to get pH down to a maximum of 5.5.
Analysis of the New Plot:
I don't have a lot of data for mash pH outside of 5.2 to 5.5, which makes sense because I always aim to achieve a pH within that range. For most accurate results, I would need to run more experiments outside of that range on purpose, which I may or may not do in future. Anyway, looking at the quality scores >50:
At a mash pH=5.2, it appears that my beers were slightly more good than bad.
At mash pH=5.3, about the same as at 5.2.
At mash pH=5.4, clearly my beers are a lot higher quality on average, with the vast majority having a quality score >50.
At mash pH=5.5, ditto, mostly great beers.
Conclusion:
Perhaps my goal for mash pH of 5.3 has been unnecessary. Perhaps I should instead be shooting for 5.4 to 5.5 for every beer.
Interesting... Very interesting.
Additional Background on "Quality":
My method of determining a "beer quality" rating is admittedly pseudo-scientific, but also very reasonable, I think, as it is in fact a mathematical normalized weighted average of three data points, combined in a manner that accounts for independent objective quantitative data while also including some more personal subjective, qualitative judgment. The three factors include: 1) how "yummy" I personally think the final beer is overall, 2) how close it comes to the style that I was trying to make based on highest medal won in competition (1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th runnerup, or zero), and 3) how well it scored in competitions on average (if entered). If no independent data is available, then I assume a nominal competition score of 29 (out of 50) and either 3rd, 4th, or zeroeth place based on how well I believe it might do in real competition. All this stuff is included, numbered, and normalized, and results in a single "beer quality" score that is roughly on a scale of 1 to 100 (my actual lowest score is 3 and the highest is 93, with most around 50, so it really does work). If it adds any credibility, I am a Certified BJCP judge with 10 years judging experience and 18 years homebrewing experience. Why do I do all this? It's a way for me to gauge my own thinking vs. independent objective sources and recalibrate, i.e., helps me get to know myself and my own biases; not to mention that it helps me come up with awesome charts like the one you see here. And as a math geek, it's just fun! Yeah, I'm sick, I know.
Cheers all. I don't know if any of this is useful at all, but maybe.