Random Beer Thoughts

[stupac2]

Guys, we seriously barely disagree on any of this so I have no idea why I'm the one being accused of arguing for the sake of arguing.

- furley pointed out that, given how fickle brewery hype seems, maybe breweries will one day regret not capitalizing on waves of hype
- Y'all said that brewery hype is essentially irrelevant to the grander scheme of things because beer nerds on the internet are a small segment of the market
- I questioned whether any of us really know or has any hard evidence about the nature of this big group of other consumers (hard evidence not being the plural form of anecdotes). Not that they don't exist (who are they as in do they exist - which was originally worded poorly on my part) but who are they as consumers? What drives them? How are they impacted by brewery hype, if at all?
- Y'all remain hung up on this as if I don't realize that BeerAdvocate's userbase =/= all craft beer customers.

Just because I don't immediately accept sight-unseen that most craft beer customers have certain behaviors that specifically refute furley's point doesn't mean I literally don't acknowledge that they exist or behave differently than hardcore beer nerds.

(Or at least that's what I think based on my window view of the real world. Mother hasn't let me out to play in a while.)

Well I just said that your point was so bad as to be refuted by basically any thought/experience with the outside world. If breweries closed when sites like this one stopped caring about them there'd be like 10 breweries left. Sure, De Garde might run into issues later and wish they had more cash on hand, but if that happens I highly, highly doubt it'll be because the hype turned down. If that were the case, they'd already be seeing it, because they're clearly not the hot new thing any more.

 

[RedCoffee]

Well I just said that your point was so bad as to be refuted by basically any thought/experience with the outside world. If breweries closed when sites like this one stopped caring about them there'd be like 10 breweries left. Sure, De Garde might run into issues later and wish they had more cash on hand, but if that happens I highly, highly doubt it'll be because the hype turned down. If that were the case, they'd already be seeing it, because they're clearly not the hot new thing any more.

See maybe it's because it's dark down here and the screen is messing with my eyes as the only light in the room, but I thought we were discussing maximization of earning potential and not the very life or death of breweries:

legitimate question here, given the fickle nature of beer consumers these days where beer/breweries have a short cycle of popularity, and seemingly profitability, do you worry that you're missing a window to maximize your earning potential?

But yeah, if you actually thought that my points were that breweries will literally close if they fail to capitalize on TalkBeer hype trends and that TalkBeer/BeerAdvocate/Facebook users were the literal embodiment of everyone who ever buys a craft beer, I can see why you'd make nothing but snide comments in response.

Either that or you just like the experience of smacking at strawman arguments?

 

[lopejuice1]

I consider myself rustic af... but I just can't imagine why I would want to drink a beer brewed with spicebush

 

[BadJustin]

I consider myself rustic af... but I just can't imagine why I would want to drink a beer brewed with spicebush

I knew a girl with the nickname in HS, true story.

 

[furley]

Well I just said that your point was so bad as to be refuted by basically any thought/experience with the outside world. If breweries closed when sites like this one stopped caring about them there'd be like 10 breweries left. Sure, De Garde might run into issues later and wish they had more cash on hand, but if that happens I highly, highly doubt it'll be because the hype turned down. If that were the case, they'd already be seeing it, because they're clearly not the hot new thing any more.

which is what i guess i'm wondering.. how much impact does being the flavor of the month have long-term?

say you're cranking out amazing beer on a shoestring budget, get "found" and ride a wave of popularity that you can barely (maybe not?) keep up with that peters out in 9 - 12 months.

do you try to adjust for that to bank cash for later (for expansion, for the lean times, for repair/ugprade) by having one-off special sale events that draw crowds from all over the country? do you brew a beer new to your lineup that syncs with the hype, charge double, wash, rinse, repeat until it stops working?

or do you let it pass by, enjoy the attention for a time and miss the boat on stuffing your mattress?


not that i expect a direct answer from any brewer (seems like a tricky topic to directly address without angering fans) but i'm curious nonetheless how business handles it. mostly how the beer business handles it because this is a beer site but also because the industry is bursting at the seams and it's very popular right now.

as much as i want cheap beer, on demand, made by righteous men & women in the industry.. i'd hate to see the good guys & girls who are "doing it the right way" miss out on the opportunity for moral/ethical reasons.

essentially, i'm a terrible person and i want to know if i'm alone here

 

[steimie]

Hasn't all this **** already been hashed out in some godawful hornydevil thread?

 

[hornydevil]

Hasn't all this **** already been hashed out in some godawful hornydevil thread?

If it hasn't, it's gonna be.

 

[lopejuice1]

I knew a girl with the nickname in HS, true story.

I take it back. I'll try anything once

 

[hornydevil]

which is what i guess i'm wondering.. how much impact does being the flavor of the month have long-term?

say you're cranking out amazing beer on a shoestring budget, get "found" and ride a wave of popularity that you can barely (maybe not?) keep up with that peters out in 9 - 12 months.

do you try to adjust for that to bank cash for later (for expansion, for the lean times, for repair/ugprade) by having one-off special sale events that draw crowds from all over the country? do you brew a beer new to your lineup that syncs with the hype, charge double, wash, rinse, repeat until it stops working?

or do you let it pass by, enjoy the attention for a time and miss the boat on stuffing your mattress?


not that i expect a direct answer from any brewer (seems like a tricky topic to directly address without angering fans) but i'm curious nonetheless how business handles it. mostly how the beer business handles it because this is a beer site but also because the industry is bursting at the seams and it's very popular right now.

as much as i want cheap beer, on demand, made by righteous men & women in the industry.. i'd hate to see the good guys & girls who are "doing it the right way" miss out on the opportunity for moral/ethical reasons.

essentially, i'm a terrible person and i want to know if i'm alone here

Businesses that make great products go under all the time. This will be true of the breweries in the "new craft" explosion, as well.

Being that it's impossible to predict the future, if you don't have a good plan going forward and/or have all your eggs in one basket, you are, very probably, going to be in trouble in short order.

Just ask the companies that used to make horse whips/riding crops.

 

[WhalezB4Rarez]

Businesses that make great products go under all the time. This will be true of the breweries in the "new craft" explosion, as well.

Being that it's impossible to predict the future, if you don't have a good plan going forward and/or have all your eggs in one basket, you are, very probably, going to be in trouble in short order.

Just ask the companies that used to make horse whips/riding crops.

 

[drgarage1]

which is what i guess i'm wondering.. how much impact does being the flavor of the month have long-term?

say you're cranking out amazing beer on a shoestring budget, get "found" and ride a wave of popularity that you can barely (maybe not?) keep up with that peters out in 9 - 12 months.

do you try to adjust for that to bank cash for later (for expansion, for the lean times, for repair/ugprade) by having one-off special sale events that draw crowds from all over the country? do you brew a beer new to your lineup that syncs with the hype, charge double, wash, rinse, repeat until it stops working?

or do you let it pass by, enjoy the attention for a time and miss the boat on stuffing your mattress?


not that i expect a direct answer from any brewer (seems like a tricky topic to directly address without angering fans) but i'm curious nonetheless how business handles it. mostly how the beer business handles it because this is a beer site but also because the industry is bursting at the seams and it's very popular right now.

as much as i want cheap beer, on demand, made by righteous men & women in the industry.. i'd hate to see the good guys & girls who are "doing it the right way" miss out on the opportunity for moral/ethical reasons.

essentially, i'm a terrible person and i want to know if i'm alone here

The biggest risk is over-building in response to hype and finding out that the demand isn't there. Then you've got a ton of sunk costs and a bunch of unsold beer. This is part of why demand planning is so critical early on. Otherwise, you never get a chance to recognize profit -- you're always either spending all your cash on new brewhouses (where your recipes probably won't taste the same, which can kill the hype) or realizing you aren't maximizing your upside. It's brutal.

 

[danbanana]

Just ask the companies that used to make horse whips/riding crops.

This is a terrible comparison. I guess I am pedantic so let's talk about why:
1. You're ******* up the most basic not-keeping-up-with-advancing-technology reference there is. No one refers to horse whips when talking about how the automobile displaced a technology. They talk about carriages and buggies, things that the automobile actually replaced.
2. While I'm sure there existed "companies" that made horse whips and riding crops in the late-19th/early-20th century, I'm doubting there were many- if any- that relied solely on these for their business. I think it is more likely that businesses that produced these types of products were leatherworks that did a wide variety of products at this time. And chances are, anyone with a whip or crop at this time probably procured it from a small local leatherworker, not what we would consider a "company" now by any means. I pity the poor ******* who thought they could feed their families by only producing horse-encouraging leather products.
3. The people with the long-haul vision of whips and riding crops are probably doing ******* great in our post-50 Shades society. Unlike, I dunno, carriage manufacturers...

 

[hornydevil]

This is a terrible comparison. I guess I am pedantic so let's talk about why:
1. You're ******* up the most basic not-keeping-up-with-advancing-technology reference there is. No one refers to horse whips when talking about how the automobile displaced a technology. They talk about carriages and buggies, things that the automobile actually replaced.
2. While I'm sure there existed "companies" that made horse whips and riding crops in the late-19th/early-20th century, I'm doubting there were many- if any- that relied solely on these for their business. I think it is more likely that businesses that produced these types of products were leatherworks that did a wide variety of products at this time. And chances are, anyone with a whip or crop at this time probably procured it from a small local leatherworker, not what we would consider a "company" now by any means. I pity the poor ******* who thought they could feed their families by only producing horse-encouraging leather products.
3. The people with the long-haul vision of whips and riding crops are probably doing ******* great in our post-50 Shades society. Unlike, I dunno, carriage manufacturers...

Yes . . . you are absolutely being a pedant, because you're missing the comparison being made. It has nothing to do with technology and everything to do with business model.

See also record stores and video rental stores.

 

[Marksy]

Yes . . . you are absolutely being a pedant, because you're missing the comparison being made. It has nothing to do with technology and everything to do with business model.

See also record stores and video rental stores.

"It has nothing to do with technology...see this example of things that were made obsolete through advances in technology." Troll better, plz.

 

[hornydevil]

"It has nothing to do with technology...see this example of things that were made obsolete through advances in technology." Troll better, plz.

Read better, plz.

 

[Sam Fu]

These past few pages have been the biggest TLDR in recent memory...

 

[quirk6]

I knew a girl with the nickname in HS, true story.

Redhead?

Also, was she hot?

 

[BadJustin]

Redhead?

Also, was she hot?

Carpet matches the drapes, check.

In High School, I'd **** anything that moved. **** man, I'd go to peoples houses and the fish would stop swimming. But yeah, kind of.

 

[hornydevil]

These past few pages have been the biggest TLDR in recent memory...

To . . . much . . . words . . .

Moar gifs, PLZ!

 

[RedCoffee]

These past few pages have been the biggest TLDR in recent memory...

TLDR:
- Some folks wonder if it would be economically beneficial for breweries to capitalize on fickle hype trends
-

 

[quirk6]

To . . . much . . . words . . .

Moar gifs, PLZ!

*many

 

[Sam Fu]

To . . . much . . . words . . .

Moar gifs, PLZ!

You finally get this site!

 

[WhalezB4Rarez]

 

[hornydevil]

*many

Your sense of humor is broken.

Please repair it, ASAP.

 

[user 305778]

The one thing that was unmentioned is by raising prices to capitalize on trends, does the brewery force off other customers who won't return when the trend ends and prices need to be lowered again.

 

[Stubs]

which is what i guess i'm wondering.. how much impact does being the flavor of the month have long-term?

say you're cranking out amazing beer on a shoestring budget, get "found" and ride a wave of popularity that you can barely (maybe not?) keep up with that peters out in 9 - 12 months.

do you try to adjust for that to bank cash for later (for expansion, for the lean times, for repair/ugprade) by having one-off special sale events that draw crowds from all over the country? do you brew a beer new to your lineup that syncs with the hype, charge double, wash, rinse, repeat until it stops working?

or do you let it pass by, enjoy the attention for a time and miss the boat on stuffing your mattress?


not that i expect a direct answer from any brewer (seems like a tricky topic to directly address without angering fans) but i'm curious nonetheless how business handles it. mostly how the beer business handles it because this is a beer site but also because the industry is bursting at the seams and it's very popular right now.

as much as i want cheap beer, on demand, made by righteous men & women in the industry.. i'd hate to see the good guys & girls who are "doing it the right way" miss out on the opportunity for moral/ethical reasons.

essentially, i'm a terrible person and i want to know if i'm alone here

Id bank that **** HARD. Look at odd13. They've moved 85% of their production to Hazy IPAs cause thats what sells for them. They have monthly releases, etc. They move some sours, some other stuff but Superfan and n00b sell like crazy.

Sure they arent charging an arm and a leg but they are maximizing volume for sure.

 

[hornydevil]

The one thing that was unmentioned is by raising prices to capitalize on trends, does the brewery force off other customers who won't return when the trend ends and prices need to be lowered again.

If you're a brewery that thinks that outpricing other local breweries and making people feel taken advantage of by you are good for business, you won't have to worry about what you should do when the trend ends.

 

[mvl339]

 

[hornydevil]

Sure they arent charging an arm and a leg but they are maximizing volume for sure.

And as long as they don't try to expand beyond their means because of this short term fact, they'll be OK.

 

[Stubs]

And as long as they don't try to expand beyond their means because of this short term fact, they'll be OK.

Yes. They've expanded slowly but mostly they've modified production schedules to suit sales.

Smart dudes.