Week 11 complete. So let's see what we've got!
Week 11 Recap:
- Finger Lakes Fury (4-7) def Mr IPA and Mrs Blonde (5-6), 144.70 to 115.64: Fury keeps the post-season dream alive while IPA/Blonde watches their second QB go down with a season-ending injury. The outcome was not close, but as described above it was one late starting roster move away from being VERY tight.
- Prestige Worldwide (9-2) def fill my Kupp (3-8) 165.50 to 101.06: Prestige has punched their ticket to the playoffs (more on that later) with a dominating win. I haven't run ALL the numbers, but I suspect that fill my Kupp is now mathematically eliminated. If not mathematically, they're functionally eliminated b/c I think the scenarios where a 6-8 team gets in are few and far between, and as the lowest scoring team in the league facing the top half in the next three matchups, getting 3 more wins is unlikely.
- Bar Flies - Chorgey (8-3) def Milwaukee Muggers (6-5), 190.50 to 128.04: 190 points! Wow... I went to check thinking it was the highest point total by any team all year, but it's narrowly second. But still--what a week! Both of these teams are fully in the playoff hunt but I think this win gets Bar Flies over the hump.
- Beer With Mahomeys (5-6) def Dawg Pound (5-6), 130.48 to 122.98: A rough one, as Dawg was leading and done after the second set of games Sunday while watching and knowing Mahomeys had Mahomes and Butker both going on Monday night. Despite relatively pedestrian days from both, it was enough to surpass the lead and equal these two right in the "work to do" section of the playoff hunt.
- Big Gulps (4-7) def Beer is My Patronus (5-6), 125.10 to 113.86: Another tight one coming down to Monday night, with Patronus starting AJB and Rashee Rice vs Gulps with Jalen Hurts. This was the type that looked like a good matchup for Patronus, because any TD thrown by Hurts to AJB effectively neutralizes Hurts' points. But it wasn't to be, as Hurts threw one TD to Devonta Smith and ran for two himself, and Gulps kept long shot playoff dreams alive and put Patronus into the "work to do" group.
- Bones Are Their Money (8-3) def Hop To It (4-7), 136.96 to 105.60: Bones took an early lead and left Hop To It hoping for a miracle performance by the Philly defense on Monday to have any chance of taking Bones down. It was not meant to be, and Bones joins Bar Flies in the "I think they're in" group while Hop To It drops to the "long shot" category.
Playoff Picture:
Locks: As mentioned, I don't call someone a lock until it's mathematically certain. Prestige Worldwide (9-2) is there. It's mathematically impossible at this point to miss the playoffs. Congrats!
Almost Locks: Bones Are Their Money (8-3) and Bar Flies - Chorgey (8-3) are both pretty much in. However, there's a narrow mathematical chance that 7 teams can finish at 8-3 or better, and I'm not going to figure out tiebreakers. At least one of them would be guaranteed though despite tiebreakers. Of course, that presumes neither team wins another game AND all the teams below play out perfectly... So these teams can rest easy knowing they're pretty much in. Bar Flies is interesting here as having gotten to 8-3 with Justin Jefferson on IR for a lot of weeks now, and his return sets that team up well going forward.
Work To Do: 5 teams here. Milwaukee Muggers (6-5) has the narrow edge right now with a one game lead over the trailing pack. Patronus (5-6), Mahomeys (5-6), IPA/Blonde (5-6) and Dawg are still in the hunt. I think 8-6 is going to be a lock and 7-7 will come down to tiebreakers, so every team in this group is somewhat on the knife edge from here out. Surprisingly, there are very few games between these teams remaining, so it could go a LOT of directions from here without them knocking each other out.
Long Shots: Fury (4-7), Hop To It (4-7), and Gulps (4-7) are all in my opinion needing to win out from here to even sniff the tiebreaker. And like I said I'm not about to try to figure out all those permutations when we have no clue who they'd be breaking ties with. As mentioned last week, Fury has the strongest team on paper, being 3rd in points scored this year while the other two are 9th and 11th.
Basically Out: fill my Kupp (3-8) is basically out. I haven't run all the math, but as mentioned above the lowest-scoring team in the league would need to win three in a row, and then craziness above would have to happen, all to just barely sneak into a giant 6-8 tie if said craziness occurs. It's just not likely. And one more week, even with a win, is probable enough that we might look at the picture and it'll be mathematically certain.
This Week's Matchups:
- Mr IPA and Mrs Blonde (5-6) vs Beer is my Patronus (5-6): I said above that there are few games between "work to do" teams, but this is one of them. It's a massive matchup for playoff contention. The winner of this game may not exactly feel certain about their playoff chances, but the loser of this game is going to be in must-win mode the final two weeks to get to 7-7 and hope for a friendly tiebreaker. On paper it looks very tight--Patronus is projected ~5 points above IPA/Blonde.
- Bar Flies - Chorgey (8-3) vs fill my Kupp (3-8): The opposite of the above matchup, in that we've got an almost-lock vs the bottom of the league. And while the lineups don't look to be set, projection-wise it looks like Bar Flies will be projected well ahead.
- Prestige Worldwide (9-2) vs Finger Lakes Fury (4-7): Fury looks to continue their miracle run against the top of the league, and the early roster looks suggest that they may even be favored in this one once lineups are set. Prestige is playing to lock up the #1 or #2 seed and a bye, while Fury is playing for their postseason life.
- Milwaukee Muggers (6-5) vs Beer With Mahomeys (5-6): This is another of the "work to do" matchups, but slightly less do-or-die given that the Muggers have a one-game lead over the rest of the work to do crew. A win for Muggers helps greatly as one more win beyond that is likely a lock, and they face Bones the following week. For Mahomeys, every win is critical and a loss here has no room for error going forward an will likely rely on a tiebreaker if they reach 7-7 to get in.
- Dawg Pound (5-6) vs Bones Are Their Money (8-3): Critical game for Dawg to avoid dropping to 5-7 and then being in must win mode for here on out. Bones is in the running for a top seed and a bye. On paper Bones looks a little stronger, and due to the schedule will likely start out well ahead with a lot of Thursday and early-slate Sunday players. Dawg is probably going to be sweating everything out on Sunday and even Monday night with Justin Fields not playing until MNF, with not a lot of Thursday/early Sunday players in the lineup.
- Big Gulps (4-7) vs Hop To It (4-7): This matchup of the long shots is effectively a playoff elimination game, with the loser likely being out of it and the winner remaining a long shot. One of these teams stays alive.
Conclusion:
So with three games to play, we have at least half of the playoff field
basically known and fighting for playoff seeding and byes., Effectively 6 additional teams are vying for the remaining three spots. Fury and all of the 5-6 teams are desperate for a win, and even Muggers at 6-5 has a much harder road with a loss.
All of this on a weird Thanksgiving weekend with three games on Thursday and a Friday game. Short weeks for every one of those 8 teams as none of them were on bye in week 11, and we all know crazy things happen on short weeks.
Now it's getting real, folks!
but otherwise I dig this league. It's also been fun trying to find decent RBs all season, since I had a live draft involving much beer going on same time as this one so computer ended up autodrafting half my picks, and made sure to draft me Chubb and then absolute garbage for RB. I did get the top ranked DEF and K though. I may not win the league but I will definitely win most transactions
I’m the new guy with the first 2/3’s of the season with bad luck but I’m coming for the championship. Watch out folks, I’m running the table from here on out. 
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