Poll: Do you have, or plan to get, an electric car?

[corkybstewart]

Ha. I just saw my first one today. It was parked near SW 2nd and Burnside. Something about the big slabs of stainless (or whatever it's made of) made the thing look huge. Much bigger than I expected.

What defines this as a truck? Does the back end open onto a pickup type bed?

 

[Airborneguy]

Reading the interwebs one would get the impression every pickup truck driver takes their vehicle daily to the maximum extent of the range, nonstop cannonball run style. While also towing something heavy.

It’s funny how we all know this exact line.

Don’t forget, “And what about 2am family emergencies in another time zone!”

 

[passedpawn]

What defines this as a truck? Does the back end open onto a pickup type bed?

I was wondering that EXACT thing yesterday.

 

[passedpawn]

I live in the Portland OR metro area, where Teslas are common AF. So far, the only cybertruck I've seen is in the window of a showroom I drove by the other day. Not quite "in the wild."

I passed one yesterday on local streets. Does not look any better in the wild.

 

[day_trippr]

As a "pickup" it's more like an El Camino wrt actual utility...

 

[passedpawn]

OK I see now. I suppose it's totally functional for most truck needs.

 

[day_trippr]

I might have missed this being posted already...

https://news.yahoo.com/volvo-landed-cheap-chinese-ev-100521299.html

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

On another forum, someone posted this:

I decided I had to respond...

Since the day you posted this, I've been thinking about responding... I can imagine what would happen if the world was primarily EV but we invented the ICE now.

First, let me set the stage. Because if we live in a BEV world, you have to essentially postulate that our existing infrastructure was in place to support EVs. Almost everyone would charge at home. Even in shared places like apartment/condo dwellings. It would become "table stakes" for rental properties to have charging. You would have a robust 3rd party charging network in cities and on interstates. Everyone would know where to charge and who had "the best rates", and that would cause charging to drive down profit above cost so public charging was only slightly more expensive than home charging unless you need a DC fast charger. And beyond that, the "important" part, everyone would be used to BEVs and so the idea of an ICEV would be foreign and new.

Can you imagine the complaints?

• What do you mean I can't charge at home overnight? I have to drive somewhere to get it ready? What if I can't find anyplace? (Remember there wouldn't be fueling stations on every corner if we've just invented ICEV). How will I find a fueling station? Is there an app for that?
• Wait, I have to put gas in my car? Gas, a flammable/explosive material? What happens if it ignites? What happens if my car starts on fire? I know there's a very low risk of batteries catching on fire, but it must be MUCH higher for these cars running on a flammable liquid!
• Ugh. If I really have to put fuel in, AND I have to find a fueling station, I want to do it as rarely as possible. I want a 30-gallon gas tank so I never have to worry about whether I'll have enough gas to get someplace, and I don't have drive all over town to fill it up very often!
• Man, these stupid ICEV engines have no low end torque! What a terrible driving experience! When I press the pedal, I want to GO. My BEV has instant torque.
• Why is it so LOUD?!?! I want to hear myself think, not listen to some engine running.
• Ew, what the heck is that smell coming out of the exhaust?! That's disgusting! It can-NOT be good for us.
• What's a "transmission"? Why isn't my acceleration smooth when it does this whole "changing gears" thing? And that sounds like a REALLY complicated mechanical thing--I'll be transmissions are going to break down all the time!
• I mean, I guess the fast "fueling" or whatever is great, but that's only important for people who are going on road trips, like, EVERY weekend. I haven't been to a public charger since that trip I took last summer, and is it REALLY that bad to wait 20-30 minutes and stretch my legs after 4 hours behind the wheel?

I mean, think it over. If we'd spent our entire lives living a BEV paradigm, and then some quirky billionaire tried to up-end it in the favor of the next big thing, "gas-powered vehicles!", do you really think it would be welcomed?

 

[Airborneguy]

You're a better man than I!

 

[day_trippr]

Taken with the "Volvo" story this can't be good...

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/04/24/business/ford-earnings-ev-losses

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

Taken with the "Volvo" story this can't be good...

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/04/24/business/ford-earnings-ev-losses

These stories are completely misunderstood by most people.

When you start up a new business unit, you incur millions (maybe billions) of dollars worth of cost depending on what you're doing. If you're Ford and you're trying to expand into EVs, you need to assign engineers (scientists) to do R&D, product design, set up a supply chain for a bunch of components you've never bought, many layers of product quality & reliability validation, create production facilities, possibly incurring a lot of CapEx if it requires new machinery/etc to start things up, hiring and training workers, hire/deploy a marketing division, create and sell advertising, train your dealers, etc. You have to do ALL of this before a single car is delivered to a customer.

All that means is that when you're still in the volume ramp period, you're going to lose money as an organization, EVEN IF EVERY SINGLE CAR IS SOLD AT POSITIVE GROSS MARGIN, until the volume reaches a break-even point to sustain the business. So you can "make money" on every single individual car, but lose it as an overall business. And people do simple math and say you're losing $XX thousands of dollars on every car sold. No, you're losing that money whether you sell a car or not--the car sales help to start turning those losses into gains once the volume moves.

The correct way to phrase this is not that they're losing a certain amount of money per car sold. The correct way to phrase this is that they're not yet selling enough cars to fund the business. But that's a lot less sexy and clickbaity.

 

[mac_1103]

If you're Ford and you're trying to expand into EVs, you need to assign engineers (scientists) to do R&D, product design, set up a supply chain for a bunch of components you've never bought, many layers of product quality & reliability validation, create production facilities, possibly incurring a lot of CapEx if it requires new machinery/etc to start things up, hiring and training workers, hire/deploy a marketing division, create and sell advertising, train your dealers, etc. You have to do ALL of this before a single car is delivered to a customer.

It even says so in the article:

...the losses include hundreds of millions being spent on research and development of the next generation of EVs for Ford...
...The company said it is its “intention” to be have EV pricing cover the actual costs of building each EV, rather than covering all the research and development costs, within the next 12 months...

So the problem isn't just that these stories are completely misunderstood by most people, it's that they're completely misunderstood by the people who write them.

OTOH, this part really doesn't sound good:

...while Ford has removed about $5,000 in cost on each Mustang Mach-E, “revenue is dropping faster than we can take out the cost.”

 

[passedpawn]

These stories are completely misunderstood by most people.

not a good way to address people lol

 

[whoaru99]

But that's a lot less sexy and clickbaity.

Yet, the fact remains sales are not as expected so they are discounting, which makes it all that much worse.

It's already been quoted and requoted, “revenue is dropping faster than we can take out the cost.”. Ouch.

 

[whoaru99]

...

 

[Airborneguy]

Stopped by a Cybertruck “meet & greet” today.

 

[day_trippr]

One of those looks sharp...

 

[Kharnynb]

the painted one looks so much better....
Still wouldn't get one, outside of the fact they are overpriced.

If we get a second car next year, it'll likely be a small ev for short trips, our local electrical company finally is lowering the monthly costs of higher main fuses and actually charging by use instead.

 

[Kent88]

The news is a few days old, but what the heck happened that the whole Supercharger team at Tesla got fired?

https://electrek.co/2024/04/29/tesla-conducting-more-layoffs-including-entire-supercharger-team/

I haven't had the opportunity to use the supercharger network yet, but everything I've heard about it has been positive.

Hopefully Ionna and other networks were prepared to hire, because a lot of talent just became available.

 

[Airborneguy]

Seems like it was a Musk moment as opposed to a business decision. Word is he did it to prove a (stupid) point to the head of the team.

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

The news is a few days old, but what the heck happened that the whole Supercharger team at Tesla got fired?

https://electrek.co/2024/04/29/tesla-conducting-more-layoffs-including-entire-supercharger-team/

I haven't had the opportunity to use the supercharger network yet, but everything I've heard about it has been positive.

Hopefully Ionna and other networks were prepared to hire, because a lot of talent just became available.

I don't understand much about what Musk does, nor why people seem to value TSLA so highly. The below is something I put together just shy of 2 weeks ago, so the numbers are likely a little off now.

Let's take a look at a couple stocks and their 12-month forward PE ratio:

• Tesla / TSLA 62.9
• Ford / F 6.22
• General Motors / GM 4.79
• Toyota / TM 10.27
• Honda / HMC 12.98
• Volkswagen / VWAGY 2.54
• Merc / MBGYY 5.33
• BMW / BMWYY 5.87
• Rivian / RIVN (N/A, losing money so no earnings)

Why in the world would anyone think TSLA is worth that multiple? The forward EPS is $2.58. That's Ford territory ($2.08 forward EPS). Toyota's is over $22.

Now, some people say TSLA shouldn't be valued as an automaker; it should be valued as a tech stock. I personally think those people are bonkers, but so be it.

The darling of the entire tech world right now is NVDA which produces the GPUs needed for AI. Red hot. Forward PE multiple of 36.11 on $25.07 forward EPS.

It makes no rational sense.

 

[Kent88]

Just saw a video with Sandy Munro spouting off about how the layoff makes business sense. Kind of sounded like Munroe thought of the Supercharger network as a completed product. I can't see it that way. Yes, the hardware is ahead of the majority of their competitors, and they almost definitely have more plugs than any of their competitors, and I'm sure that those plugs are places very strategically.

But they've just opened up their network to thousands of non-tesla vehicles, are planning on becoming available to thousands more soon, and they do have competitors in ChargePoint, EVgo, ElectrifyAmerica, and others. Also, it isn't clear to me, but it sounds like some of the people laid off were also in charge of maintaining the equipment.

Also, the more I learn about DC fast charging the more I find that software is a huge factor in charging speed. I've learned about the software industry and taken more than a couple programming classes, and one thing I kept hearing is how the maintenance phase of your software is crucial. Customers need you to keep up on the product you sold them, or they're going to find a different product with a company that will back it.

Have we reached a point where charging networks are mature enough that it's no longer beneficial to have the kind of competitive advantage that Tesla has enjoyed for the past (how long has it been?)? I'm skeptical.

 

[mac_1103]

Seems like it was a Musk moment as opposed to a business decision. Word is he did it to prove a (stupid) point to the head of the team.

Not to defend Musk and his moments, but IME most of the points that owners feel the need to prove are relatively stupid.

It makes no rational sense.

Forget it, Jake, it's Wall Street.

 

[Bilsch]

My guess is the advances in FSD have made Elon think about switching strategies from being just a car manufacturer to a company that provides autonomous transport as their core business. If he has cracked it then all the other things they currently do would be a waste of Tesla's time.

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

My guess is the advances in FSD have made Elon think about switching strategies from being just a car manufacturer to a company that provides autonomous transport as their core business. If he has cracked it then all the other things they currently do would be a waste of Tesla's time.

That's 100% true.

And 0.1% likely

 

[Bilsch]

That's 100% true.

And 0.1% likely

I guess it seems more likely to me, someone using FSD v12.3.4 on a daily basis.

 

[Airborneguy]

I use it almost every day but have to take over frequently. The #1 issue being ridiculous lane changes when I’m cruising with the flow of traffic. It never did that in prior versions. I wish we could turn off lane changes completely.

 

[Bilsch]

I use it almost every day but have to take over frequently. The #1 issue being ridiculous lane changes when I’m cruising with the flow of traffic. It never did that in prior versions. I wish we could turn off lane changes completely.

Interesting. I haven't had to intervene since getting v12
Do you have it set on assertive or chill ?

 

[TheDudeLebowski]

Saw this rolling down my road after lunch

 

[Airborneguy]

Interesting. I haven't had to intervene since getting v12
Do you have it set on assertive or chill ?

Chill and I click “limited lane changes this drive” every time I use it.