So, much for the EV demand is tanking BS. The current apparent inventory oversupply is just due to more capacity coming on line, from more manufacturers. Not an unusual occurrence in relatively new markets. Things will even out over time.
And yet there's an article in yesterday's Washington Post about EV demand tanking.So, much for the EV demand is tanking BS.
Because anything can be spun to feed the intended audiences’ bias.And yet there's an article in yesterday's Washington Post about EV demand tanking.
Oddly, slower growth is still growth. Who knew?spun
You could say the news is shocking. I wonder what sparked the current interest. It’s as if lightning struck twice to a society now well grounded, which was once insulated and poles apart. Time to plug-in to the future and shunt the power of oil producing dictatorships from generating more flow. I’m sure amped.So, much for the EV demand is tanking BS. The current apparent inventory oversupply is just due to more capacity coming on line, from more manufacturers. Not an unusual occurrence in relatively new markets. Things will even out over time.
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The EV market is tracking with just about any new technological product: an initial burst, slow growth, another burst, then integration. We're probably in the early integration phase now. Everyone who "had to have one" got one, the companies grew somewhat, everyone who "wanted one" got one... now the companies will adjust to becoming more mainstream and convincing those who are indifferent to switch.This seems like a balanced presentation of what's currently going on in the USA EV markets from my naive perspective.
Comments?
https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/25/cars/what-happened-with-electric-vehicle-sales-in-2023/index.html
I think it's a little more complex. Again, I come from the world of data storage, particularly the device (SSD & HDD) side.The EV market is tracking with just about any new technological product: an initial burst, slow growth, another burst, then integration. We're probably in the early integration phase now. Everyone who "had to have one" got one, the companies grew somewhat, everyone who "wanted one" got one... now the companies will adjust to becoming more mainstream and convincing those who are indifferent to switch.
I count 15.You could say the news is shocking. I wonder what sparked the current interest. It’s as if lightning struck twice to a society now well grounded, which was once insulated and poles apart. Time to plug-in to the future and shunt the power of oil producing dictatorships from generating more flow. I’m sure amped.
I’ll stop now.
The EV market is tracking with just about any new technological product: an initial burst, slow growth, another burst, then integration.
I think it's a little more complex. Again, I come from the world of data storage, particularly the device (SSD & HDD) side.
For personal computing, go back a decade and SSDs at the capacities most users needed were ridiculously expensive compared to HDD. Those who absolutely needed and prioritized the performance advantage (gamers, software developers who needed them for faster compilation times, people who did heavy video/image editing, etc) and those who just had money and wanted "the fastest" had SSDs... Everyone else didn't because they were just too expensive. Fast forward to today, and just about every PC has an SSD. NOT because they're superior for personal computing, but because they're superior AND they are at a cost parity for the sort of capacities average users need (and in some cases, like Chromebooks, they're the cheaper option to HDD b/c the capacity need is small).
BEV's are still expensive relative to ICEVs. That is still a market limiter. You want 250+ mile range, it's gonna cost >$40K. It's the reason that automakers are still positioning BEVs in "luxury" price points. When you get to a point where the battery cost for a 250-300mi range is attainable at or slightly above parity for a comparable ICEV, BEV adoption will skyrocket. This is ESPECIALLY true for those who can't charge at home--for those people the cost advantages of BEV largely disappear if 100% of their charging is at public chargers, and the "inconvenience" factor then goes UP, not down, with a BEV.
It's cost. Cost has to keep coming down for adoption to go up.
(BTW part of this is also slow adoption because of the number of people, like me, who don't buy new cars. When the BEV early adopters largely start retiring their cars into the used market and replacing them with another BEV, it opens up BEVs to buyers like me who will let someone else take the "drive it off the lot" depreciation hit. That's probably 3-4 years out before that really takes off with any manufacturer not named Tesla.)
Is funny how we measure things against predictions, instead of just measuring. Stock prices plummet when profits are lower than expected, even if profit is still good. EV adoption growth is evaluated against predictions, even if growth is still good. We seem to give a lot of power to predicters and other pundits.not as quickly as had been expected and planned on.
If US consumers were willing to drive 74 hp vehicles to save money and fuel, then somebody would already be selling 74 hp ICE cars for under $10k and making a killing. But I'm sure BYD will hit the US market with a version of the Seagull/Dophin similar to the one they just launched in Brazil for a little over $20k and the impact will be similar.When the Chinese BYD Seagull hits the US marked for a little over $10k, it's game over.
Especially when the difference is basically a rounding error.Is funny how we measure things against predictions, instead of just measuring.
Stock prices plummet when profits are lower than expected, even if profit is still good.
The 90hp VW TDI was (still is?) fairly popular for exactly those reasons.If US consumers were willing to drive 74 hp vehicles to save money and fuel, then somebody would already be selling 74 hp ICE cars for under $10k and making a killing. But I'm sure BYD will hit the US market with a version of the Seagull/Dophin similar to the one they just launched in Brazil for a little over $20k and the impact will be similar.
The 89 hp TDI Beetle was manufactured from 1998-2003. I don't know what the market for 20 year-old TDI's is like, but I'm talking about US new car buyers in 2024. VW hasn't sold TDIs (in the US anyway) for almost a decade now. The 2015 model came in 170 and 210 hp versions. The 2015 Golf TDI had a 150 hp engine.The 90hp VW TDI was (still is?) fairly popular for exactly those reasons.
That’s two more than I got!I count 15.
I cannot imagine that will be comfortable. We’re test driving a plaid X tonight and I already have the chiropractor booked immediately afterwards.
“Unveil end of year, aiming to ship next year,” he added.