Poll: Do you have, or plan to get, an electric car?

[sibelman]

News: 2023 EV adoption continued to increase.

 

[doug293cz]

News: 2023 EV adoption continued to increase.

So, much for the EV demand is tanking BS. The current apparent inventory oversupply is just due to more capacity coming on line, from more manufacturers. Not an unusual occurrence in relatively new markets. Things will even out over time.

Brew on

 

[mac_1103]

News: 2023 EV adoption continued to increase.

So, much for the EV demand is tanking BS.

And yet there's an article in yesterday's Washington Post about EV demand tanking.

 

[Airborneguy]

And yet there's an article in yesterday's Washington Post about EV demand tanking.

Because anything can be spun to feed the intended audiences’ bias.

 

[mac_1103]

exactly

 

[Airborneguy]

Im the automotive section moderator on citydata because of this issue. The old mod became frustrated and gave up. I told her I’d take over since I was already heavily moderating the section anyway to help her.

 

[sibelman]

spun

Oddly, slower growth is still growth. Who knew?

I hope (but don't trust) that car- and policy-makers aren't unduly influenced by these kinds of data manipulations.

Okay, back to my echo chamber now, where the facts are manipulated the way I like 'em!

 

[day_trippr]

This seems like a balanced presentation of what's currently going on in the USA EV markets from my naive perspective.
Comments?

https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/25/cars/what-happened-with-electric-vehicle-sales-in-2023/index.html

 

[Broothru]

So, much for the EV demand is tanking BS. The current apparent inventory oversupply is just due to more capacity coming on line, from more manufacturers. Not an unusual occurrence in relatively new markets. Things will even out over time.

Brew on

You could say the news is shocking. I wonder what sparked the current interest. It’s as if lightning struck twice to a society now well grounded, which was once insulated and poles apart. Time to plug-in to the future and shunt the power of oil producing dictatorships from generating more flow. I’m sure amped.

I’ll stop now.

 

[Airborneguy]

This seems like a balanced presentation of what's currently going on in the USA EV markets from my naive perspective.
Comments?

https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/25/cars/what-happened-with-electric-vehicle-sales-in-2023/index.html

The EV market is tracking with just about any new technological product: an initial burst, slow growth, another burst, then integration. We're probably in the early integration phase now. Everyone who "had to have one" got one, the companies grew somewhat, everyone who "wanted one" got one... now the companies will adjust to becoming more mainstream and convincing those who are indifferent to switch.

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

The EV market is tracking with just about any new technological product: an initial burst, slow growth, another burst, then integration. We're probably in the early integration phase now. Everyone who "had to have one" got one, the companies grew somewhat, everyone who "wanted one" got one... now the companies will adjust to becoming more mainstream and convincing those who are indifferent to switch.

I think it's a little more complex. Again, I come from the world of data storage, particularly the device (SSD & HDD) side.

For personal computing, go back a decade and SSDs at the capacities most users needed were ridiculously expensive compared to HDD. Those who absolutely needed and prioritized the performance advantage (gamers, software developers who needed them for faster compilation times, people who did heavy video/image editing, etc) and those who just had money and wanted "the fastest" had SSDs... Everyone else didn't because they were just too expensive. Fast forward to today, and just about every PC has an SSD. NOT because they're superior for personal computing, but because they're superior AND they are at a cost parity for the sort of capacities average users need (and in some cases, like Chromebooks, they're the cheaper option to HDD b/c the capacity need is small).

BEV's are still expensive relative to ICEVs. That is still a market limiter. You want 250+ mile range, it's gonna cost >$40K. It's the reason that automakers are still positioning BEVs in "luxury" price points. When you get to a point where the battery cost for a 250-300mi range is attainable at or slightly above parity for a comparable ICEV, BEV adoption will skyrocket. This is ESPECIALLY true for those who can't charge at home--for those people the cost advantages of BEV largely disappear if 100% of their charging is at public chargers, and the "inconvenience" factor then goes UP, not down, with a BEV.

It's cost. Cost has to keep coming down for adoption to go up.

(BTW part of this is also slow adoption because of the number of people, like me, who don't buy new cars. When the BEV early adopters largely start retiring their cars into the used market and replacing them with another BEV, it opens up BEVs to buyers like me who will let someone else take the "drive it off the lot" depreciation hit. That's probably 3-4 years out before that really takes off with any manufacturer not named Tesla.)

 

[AzOr]

You could say the news is shocking. I wonder what sparked the current interest. It’s as if lightning struck twice to a society now well grounded, which was once insulated and poles apart. Time to plug-in to the future and shunt the power of oil producing dictatorships from generating more flow. I’m sure amped.

I’ll stop now.

I count 15.

 

[tracer bullet]

The EV market is tracking with just about any new technological product: an initial burst, slow growth, another burst, then integration.

Agreed it's certainly something like this. The reconciliation between the articles indicating how much they are growing vs. all the things the automakers are quitting on is, I think, that EV's are still selling and becoming more accepted, simply not as quickly as had been expected and planned on.

 

[passedpawn]

I think it's a little more complex. Again, I come from the world of data storage, particularly the device (SSD & HDD) side.

For personal computing, go back a decade and SSDs at the capacities most users needed were ridiculously expensive compared to HDD. Those who absolutely needed and prioritized the performance advantage (gamers, software developers who needed them for faster compilation times, people who did heavy video/image editing, etc) and those who just had money and wanted "the fastest" had SSDs... Everyone else didn't because they were just too expensive. Fast forward to today, and just about every PC has an SSD. NOT because they're superior for personal computing, but because they're superior AND they are at a cost parity for the sort of capacities average users need (and in some cases, like Chromebooks, they're the cheaper option to HDD b/c the capacity need is small).

BEV's are still expensive relative to ICEVs. That is still a market limiter. You want 250+ mile range, it's gonna cost >$40K. It's the reason that automakers are still positioning BEVs in "luxury" price points. When you get to a point where the battery cost for a 250-300mi range is attainable at or slightly above parity for a comparable ICEV, BEV adoption will skyrocket. This is ESPECIALLY true for those who can't charge at home--for those people the cost advantages of BEV largely disappear if 100% of their charging is at public chargers, and the "inconvenience" factor then goes UP, not down, with a BEV.

It's cost. Cost has to keep coming down for adoption to go up.

(BTW part of this is also slow adoption because of the number of people, like me, who don't buy new cars. When the BEV early adopters largely start retiring their cars into the used market and replacing them with another BEV, it opens up BEVs to buyers like me who will let someone else take the "drive it off the lot" depreciation hit. That's probably 3-4 years out before that really takes off with any manufacturer not named Tesla.)

When the Chinese BYD Seagull hits the US marked for a little over $10k, it's game over. I read somewhere that BYD is building a factory in Mexico to avoid tariffs on the vehicle imports (per NAFTA / USMCA).

 

[sibelman]

not as quickly as had been expected and planned on.

Is funny how we measure things against predictions, instead of just measuring. Stock prices plummet when profits are lower than expected, even if profit is still good. EV adoption growth is evaluated against predictions, even if growth is still good. We seem to give a lot of power to predicters and other pundits.

 

[mac_1103]

When the Chinese BYD Seagull hits the US marked for a little over $10k, it's game over.

If US consumers were willing to drive 74 hp vehicles to save money and fuel, then somebody would already be selling 74 hp ICE cars for under $10k and making a killing. But I'm sure BYD will hit the US market with a version of the Seagull/Dophin similar to the one they just launched in Brazil for a little over $20k and the impact will be similar.

 

[mac_1103]

Is funny how we measure things against predictions, instead of just measuring.

Especially when the difference is basically a rounding error.

 

[tracer bullet]

Stock prices plummet when profits are lower than expected, even if profit is still good.

Oh, I know it. My Target stock plummeted when they didn't meet forecast. They made an nostrilsload of profit, but not as much as people wanted, and so the companies value dropped 1/4 = 1/3 or something darn near overnight. I was of course wondering WTF happened.

 

[Agent]

If US consumers were willing to drive 74 hp vehicles to save money and fuel, then somebody would already be selling 74 hp ICE cars for under $10k and making a killing. But I'm sure BYD will hit the US market with a version of the Seagull/Dophin similar to the one they just launched in Brazil for a little over $20k and the impact will be similar.

The 90hp VW TDI was (still is?) fairly popular for exactly those reasons.

However, I don't think any manufacturer could field a $10k car in the US without serious subsidies.

 

[mac_1103]

The 90hp VW TDI was (still is?) fairly popular for exactly those reasons.

The 89 hp TDI Beetle was manufactured from 1998-2003. I don't know what the market for 20 year-old TDI's is like, but I'm talking about US new car buyers in 2024. VW hasn't sold TDIs (in the US anyway) for almost a decade now. The 2015 model came in 170 and 210 hp versions. The 2015 Golf TDI had a 150 hp engine.

 

[Agent]

With new cars starting around $20k and averaging around $45k, the targeted market is much different than those who would pay $10k for an efficient low-powered pooch.

In my area, there are more of those 20 year old TDIs for sale than EVs. And a 2013 TDI with 150k miles is still going for 2 times the price of a 2013 Nissan Leaf with 50k miles.

 

[Agent]

Frankly, I'm just somewhere in the seven stages of grief. My 2000 Jetta TDI put a shock through the engine bay last year, and my 2003 Golf TDI has only a year or two left before something major rusts apart.

I've been eyeing used EVs because the price points are attractive, and I'm not afraid to tinker with that sort of stuff. But by 10 years, most are in a battery death spiral and the aftermarket battery business (beyond salvage) is practically non-existent.

I always figured the hybrids like the Chevy Volt would be the best of both worlds. EV capacity for most daily driving with an engine as an unlimited range extender. But the platform still hinges on the longevity and serviceability of its battery.

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

If American consumers were willing at this point to give up range/power for EV, the Nissan Leaf wouldn't be selling 10-15K units annually. At least according to Wikipedia (I know, I know), that's been their run rate from ~2018-2022.

The damn Porsche Taycan sold ~7.5K in 2023... Apparently that's MORE than the Leaf did in 2023! Nissan moved upmarket with the Ariya that sold >13K at a starting price of something north of $41K as far as I can tell...

 

[Broothru]

I count 15.

That’s two more than I got!

 

[day_trippr]

Elon going beyond Plaid

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/elon-musk-promises-tesla-fans-183713045.html

 

[Thorrak]

I cannot imagine that will be comfortable. We’re test driving a plaid X tonight and I already have the chiropractor booked immediately afterwards.

 

[Airborneguy]

Yeah 1 sec is ridiculous. It’s also going to cost north of $200,000.

 

[mac_1103]

"...even Formula 1 race cars with professionally licensed drivers behind the wheel can’t hit that kind of acceleration. The aerodynamic downforce needed to firmly plant the Roadster’s wheels on the road and maintain grip at that pace would have to be truly staggering."

Yeah, what could possibly go wrong?

 

[whoaru99]

I cannot imagine that will be comfortable. We’re test driving a plaid X tonight and I already have the chiropractor booked immediately afterwards.

I'd think one buys that type of performance not for comfort, rather, effectually for the brutality of it.

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

Elon going beyond Plaid

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/elon-musk-promises-tesla-fans-183713045.html

“Unveil end of year, aiming to ship next year,” he added.

Which is Musk for mockup drawings next year, unveil around 2027, and ship (maybe, if ever) by 2030