BrianTheBrewer
Well-Known Member
Nooooo man no persoanl offense I get it....all good
Hey everyone!
I know this a home-brewing forum but since a lot of people seem quite knowledgeable here, I hope my post isn't considered too off topic or unrelated to this forum.
I want to start a microbrewery. I've looked at the costs, equipment, permits, etc so I know what I'm up against. I'm still not fazed or overwhelmed since I've run a business before and I actually find that challenging in a good way.
The one thing I don't want to do is make the beer. That means I want somebody who has the expertise to make a good brew and the experience of dealing with the large and expensive equipment. How would I find somebody like that?
This is towards your last line you typed...YOU WILL NEVER FIND ONE HERE!!!
I will from now on post all sacrastic comments with a "WINK WINK" on them, though that sorta defeats the purpose of using saracasm, which means there is no point in posting... so how the heck am I going to reach 3,000 posts??
EDIT, WINK WINK
I don't know where to start!
I am an MBA student and have done a lot of research on the beer industry. First, why do you want to enter into a price war with the macro brewers?? I ask this because, 1. They WILL win and 2. Beer is price inelastic! Demand is NOT affected by price! This is shown in multiple studies:
Ornstein and Hanssens (1985) -0.142
Nelson (1999) -0.200
Nelson (2003) -0.174
As you lower price, demand barely moves so, in effect, you are just transferring economic value to the consumer for nothing + attracting the attention of the big brewers who will crush you if you start to gain any kind of traction!! You must keep price integrity of your respectable beer segment!
I ran multiple regressions on all types of data (California) and saw that the only thing that affects beer demand there is TPI (personal income). My results showed that overall beer demand is not affected by price BUT as people made more or less income they traded up to craft beer or down to macro swill accordingly. People will drink beer in all economic conditions; what beer they drink is only determined, more or less, by their income. Everything else was statistically insignificant!
...
It's true that aggregate demand for alcohol is price inelastic, but people who drink will switch brands readily if the price is right. If a new, cheaper beer is introduced and marketed appropriately, it may succeed in capturing significant market share.
Thanks for the comments, I'll try to check out your papers. Indeed, macro beer segment drinkers will readily switch due to low switching costs (although brand loyalty in this segment is strong). This is a known fact.
Your findings are valid if, and only if, the big brewers ALLOW him to keep his price low. This is why I warned him of entering into a price war with the big brewers. They are not going to let him have his product priced below theirs for too long. He will gain market share in the short run (he MUST if he is going to survive with a low margin product); however, as they take notice of his success, the big brewers will lower their prices in the areas he distributes (a far enough radius to prevent arbitrage) and absolutely KILL him.
hey everyone!
I know this a home-brewing forum but since a lot of people seem quite knowledgeable here, i hope my post isn't considered too off topic or unrelated to this forum.
I want to start a microbrewery. I've looked at the costs, equipment, permits, etc so i know what i'm up against. I'm still not fazed or overwhelmed since i've run a business before and i actually find that challenging in a good way.
The one thing i don't want to do is make the beer. That means i want somebody who has the expertise to make a good brew and the experience of dealing with the large and expensive equipment. how would i find somebody like that?
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