Will there be human footprints on Mars by 2040? If so, who will have done it?

[betarhoalphadelta]

Same thing with a colony on Mars, it's a neat sounding idea until you look at the costs of developing it and trying to sustain it over time. The argument that we need to be on two planets as an insurance policy in case this one becomes uninhabitable is ridiculous. If Earth dies, a colony on Mars would die afterward due to lack of support from Earth.

The idea of a self sustaining colony in the harsh conditions of Mars is a great sci-fi story line, but not much else. That will be the case until there is a massive shift in our knowledge that opens up new ways of generating power and lifting loads into space. Even Einstein's brilliance 100 years ago did not open up the path to make colonizing another planet feasible or sustainable.

Agreed. And I should point out that I don't believe that humans will *NEVER* step foot on Mars and/or even colonize Mars. But it's both a technology and an economic problem that won't be solved by 2040, OP's original poll question.

Economically it makes no sense with today's technology. And the technology required to develop to get to the point where it makes sense economically is far more than 2 decades out.

 

[Silver_Is_Money]

In a few more decades there will be so much man made waste and debris orbiting the earth that no manned space flights will be safe (in relative terms) to undertake.

 

[Silver_Is_Money]

It's a big universe. Think of all of the advanced civilizations that may be out there living on super-earth size planets with gravity so strong that escape velocity can't be achieved at all via hydrogen based fuels. They don't even have the option of departing their planets, unless perhaps they attempt to do so via nuclear blast propulsion.

 

[passedpawn]

Despite what Superman tried to tell us, there is no dark side of the moon. There is a far side of the moon (relative to the earth), but all sides of the moon end up exposed to sunlight in the course of the lunar month.

Wait, but, but... what if the dam breaks open many years too soon, and if there is no room upon the hill, and if my head explodes with dark forbodings too?

 

[day_trippr]

Run Like Hell.

 

[MaxStout]

Matter of fact, it's all dark.

 

[Horseflesh]

When have all major powers truly gone together, in parity, on anything?

First you have to assume that such an enterprise (a colony on Mars, or the moon) could be self sustaining. That is a enormous stretch...

By “parity” I mean more like the cold war’s parity. Parity not in cooperation, but in capabilities... a competition. A race on somewhat even footing can progress, someone leapfrogging the pack would not be tolerated.

And you’re right of course about the difficulty of anything offworld being self-sustaining. That’s... a long way off. And that is the critical point that the powers here cannot allow to come to pass.

It’s going to be all fun and games for quite a while, until suddenly it’s not.

IMHO!

 

[LittleRiver]

By “parity” I mean more like the cold war’s parity. Parity not in cooperation, but in capabilities... a competition. A race on somewhat even footing can progress, someone leapfrogging the pack would not be tolerated.

And you’re right of course about the difficulty of anything offworld being self-sustaining. That’s... a long way off. And that is the critical point that the powers here cannot allow to come to pass...

I just can't buy that argument, and I don't think history supports it.

What about when the USA leapfrogged way ahead of everyone else in manned spaceflight? We put boot prints on the moon, and not just one mission, we did it successfully over and over. That was a big deal. The world responded with an amazing outpouring of support, not with the type of response that you are proposing.

How about the formation of the USA? In your logic England would still be trying to bring us under control, for doing something that could not be tolerated (creating a new entity, that could potentially grow strong and be a threat). England did fight to hold onto her colony, but in the end had to let it go its own way. Since then England has been a close partner and military ally of the USA.

 

[Soulshine2]

YES!! One of my favs from the era

back before collecting space junk was something given serious consideration

those (former doublemint )twins were HOT...Cyb and Trish Barnstable.

 

[Horseflesh]

Tolerating boots on the moon, a few missions in frail ships, is really different than having a functional civilization hanging over your head. It was a great leap but it was also far short of orbital weapons--an arms control topic that was negotiated, I think.

I don't think the England example makes your case: there was a fight, and they lost. If they calculated that round 2 would have worked out for them, I am sure it would have happened.

The fact that England is not attacking us today does not, IMHO, support the idea that the USA will happily let someone else set up an untouchable space-based weapon at some point in the future.

But anything too interesting, for good or ill, is likely to be long after we are gone... I'm with you on that. Musk may get his wish to retire on Mars but it will be a reality TV stunt, not a new nation in the making. Sustainability is the real hurdle, like you said.

 

[grampamark]

England didn’t lose-they simply chose not to die on that hill.

The British had leadership problems, budget problems, and another rebellion in the West Indies, from whence came the rum trade, something more valuable than the produce of the American colonies. Once the French got involved on the American side, the Brits decided not to expend any more limited resources on keeping a bunch of beer-drinking rednecks in line.

It’s a fundamental tenet of American identity that the revolutionary patriots handed King George his ass. The political and economic realities of the day, while not the stuff of action-adventure stories, are what really determined the outcome of the American Revolution. But, a win is a win, and the winners get to write the history.

 

[Horseflesh]

But, a win is a win, and the winners get to write the history.

I'll drink to that!

 

[ApolloSimcoe]

Who said there aren't already?

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

England didn’t lose-they simply chose not to die on that hill.

The British had leadership problems, budget problems, and another rebellion in the West Indies, from whence came the rum trade, something more valuable than the produce of the American colonies. Once the French got involved on the American side, the Brits decided not to expend any more limited resources on keeping a bunch of beer-drinking rednecks in line.

It’s a fundamental tenet of American identity that the revolutionary patriots handed King George his ass. The political and economic realities of the day, while not the stuff of action-adventure stories, are what really determined the outcome of the American Revolution. But, a win is a win, and the winners get to write the history.

Well, in any war that doesn't result in total victory (conquest/takeover of the losing side), that's how it ends. At some point one side decides that the value of continuing to fight is lower than than the value of walking away.

In that case, it was a matter of the British trying to hang on to their colonies with dreadful supply lines, limited budget, multiple other priorities, and a populace that probably didn't have that large of an emotional attachment to us "yanks".

We didn't have to "win", we just had to make the cost of Britain winning too high for them to bear.

 

[LittleRiver]

If we do want to set up a "lifeboat" outpost, that can re-populate Earth many years after a calamity such as a large asteroid impact, then it makes much more sense to locate it on the Moon. It'll be MUCH easier to establish and keep stocked, and it would be much easier for the colonists to monitor Earth after the event.

 

[passedpawn]

Steven Hawking's last book has a whole chapter dedicated to this subject. It's been a while, but he said it needs to happen but won't for much longer. He suggested Europa (moon of Saturn I think) because of the water there. He also mentioned Titan, which is a moon of Jupiter, though I remember he made a funny comment about not being too thrilled to be living next to a lake of methane. (I might have the planets wrong there)

 

[passedpawn]

^^ Brief Answers to the Big Questions. Chapter 8: Should We Colonise Space

 

[RPh_Guy]

It's an interesting viewpoint, that we [humans] may have a bright and limitless future, capable of the overcoming the massive technological and economic obstacles to begin colonizing space.

Looking at the current state of things, it seems civilization will likely be collapsing in the next few decades. Staple crops are almost completely homogenized, primed for disease/pestilence. Climate change from CO2 emission is completely out of control. Globalization sets the stage for a massive pandemic. The power grid is aging and exceedingly fragile. Nuclear weapon arsenals are extensive and advanced warfare technology is almost within reach (e.g. autonomous mobile killing machines). Unsustainable fishing can potentially eradicate that source of food supply. Bioweapons. Cyberterrorism. Etc etc.

Many of those things are hypothetical catastrophies, however the over-population/ climate change crisis is already set in motion and unchecked will lead to the end of the world as we know it within this century.
https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/...f-human-civilization-coming-to-an-end-in-2050

I don't hear even much discussion of the doom we're facing, so I'm not overly optimistic that our species will implement the immediate radical changes necessary to prevent the end of life as we know it. Change my mind.

 

[Gravitysucks]

Russian footprints on Mars by 2025

 

[shoengine]

It's an interesting viewpoint, that we [humans] may have a bright and limitless future, capable of the overcoming the massive technological and economic obstacles to begin colonizing space.

Looking at the current state of things, it seems civilization will likely be collapsing in the next few decades. Staple crops are almost completely homogenized, primed for disease/pestilence. Climate change from CO2 emission is completely out of control. Globalization sets the stage for a massive pandemic. The power grid is aging and exceedingly fragile. Nuclear weapon arsenals are extensive and advanced warfare technology is almost within reach (e.g. autonomous mobile killing machines). Unsustainable fishing can potentially eradicate that source of food supply. Bioweapons. Cyberterrorism. Etc etc.

Many of those things are hypothetical catastrophies, however the over-population/ climate change crisis is already set in motion and unchecked will lead to the end of the world as we know it within this century.
https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/...f-human-civilization-coming-to-an-end-in-2050

I don't hear even much discussion of the doom we're facing, so I'm not overly optimistic that our species will implement the immediate radical changes necessary to prevent the end of life as we know it. Change my mind.

Eh, whatever happens, happens.

 

[Zuljin]

Just wait til we get up there and find all those fake Hollywood sets they've been using to fool us for years.

 

[jrgtr42]

I'm thinking that we won't go to Mars in the forseeable future - as others have said, it's an enormous cost for limited return, economically anyway. Though the scientific value would be huge - being able to explore the similarities and differences among these 2 planets, and being able to extrapolate from there.
I do expect that we will return to the moon by then, as long as the Government re-funds NASA - though it's as likely a private company, like SpaceX will get there first.
As much as the government doesn't think so, there is huge value in exploring and investigating outer space - it's just not financial value (yet.)

 

[Silver_Is_Money]

There is an asteroid out there which has so much gold within it that it would collapse the economies of the world and make gold a commodity of close to zero value if it could be dragged to earth.

https://bigthink.com/surprising-science/space-miners-race-to-an-asteroid-worth-quintillions

https://www.express.co.uk/news/scie...e-16-gold-platinum-Earth-economy-space-latest

 

[Kent88]

#occupyvenus

 

[Imhoppy]

Someday someone will brew beer on Mars. If it were me, I'd be brewing some on the way there. That's one small sip for a man, and one giant gulp for mankind. Houston, Tranquility Base here. The Brewery has landed. Mars Brewing Company. Out of this world awesome!

 

[Imhoppy]

Interesting side note... Beer is a crater lying situated within the Margaritifer Sinus quadrangle (MC-19) region of the planet Mars, named in honor of the German astronomer, Wilhelm Beer. It is located at 14.4°S 351.8°E .

 

[Still Brewn]

A couple of things.... England vs U.S.... advancements bring change otherwise England would still be under Roman control.

We are forgetting about the treaties that say we cannot occupy other planets where life exists..... so the fact is that we still have to find out if there is life on mars or break the treaty.

Another thing... we have no idea what bacterial or viral entities exist on mars (life) pretty much negating any long term occupation of mars for now.

The sun will one day go super nova at which time, at minimum, human kind will have to exist at least as far away from the sun as mars (if we still exist). That said, by that time we will need to have developed the means to survive in interstellar space to travel to other solar systems, meaning at a minimum we will have had to figure out how to teraform planets and survive on deep space voyages. All of this is long after, we that are reading this in 2019, are dead by millions of years but the technology we develope today is just one step in the process.

The journey to mars is only one step in the process.

The occupation of mars is the second step.

The landing on mars could be done by 2025 if the enthusiasm for the mars landing was as great as it was for the moon landing.

But hey, tomorrow aliens may land and say we are getting too technologically advanced and blow our asses off the planet earth.

 

[Still Brewn]

Or it could be that aliens land on earth and stomp us out with their city sized feet, smashing us one city at a time.... The alien version of Bigfoot only their feet are as big as a small city!

 

[kh54s10]

Or the aliens could be flesh eating microscopic organisms that come in on a meteorite, reproduce astronomically fast and consume all the animal life on Earth in 10 days.

 

[Kent88]

I find that extremely unlikely. Such an organism would have to be able to withstand years in space and then a violent entry into our atmosphere.

And how often does this planet get hit with meteors of a significant size?