I think it's everywhere. Everyone is trying to get wider distro. The beer aisles are growing but they can only grow so much. Especially when it comes to IPAs. I'll try something new when it hits our distro but unless it blows my mind I'll more than likely just grab Two Hearted next time, or try something else new. I don't think I'm the only person who feels this way. So maybe 6ers sell at a quick pace on the first delivery but by the second delivery they sit around, now those IPAs are 2-3 months old and I'm even less likely to revisit that beer a second or third time due to freshness.
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I think it's everywhere. Everyone is trying to get wider distro. The beer aisles are growing but they can only grow so much. Especially when it comes to IPAs. I'll try something new when it hits our distro but unless it blows my mind I'll more than likely just grab Two Hearted next time, or try something else new. I don't think I'm the only person who feels this way. So maybe 6ers sell at a quick pace on the first delivery but by the second delivery they sit around, now those IPAs are 2-3 months old and I'm even less likely to revisit that beer a second or third time due to freshness.
Beerontwowheels
Well-Known Member
I love how our esteemed purveyors of (barrel aged) fermented sugar water are now all up in the barrel aged unfermented sugar water market. Heard AB-Inbev is in talks with Aunt Jemima. Can't let the craft breweries have all the fun.
MarcatGSB1
Well-Known Member
This whole conversation just adds to my bewilderment on why Shorts would move out of Michigan with Local's, Soft Parade, Spade Rock and Huma... Beers (other than Soft Parade) are in no way unique. Is someone in Ohio going to start buying Huma over Head Hunter? Hell no. Etc, etc.
trickytunadicky
Well-Known Member
That's not even real syrup. It's corn sugar and fenugreek.
trickytunadicky
Well-Known Member
I for one am happy to drink the **** out of Soft Parade.
EDIT: You kbow how ******* love their fruit beer.
That may have its own niche that Shorts can market to in out of state markets. But Huna or anything else from their year round or seasonal catalog, probably not. I don't even drink those beers. For me the appeal of Shorts is getting something new every 2-3 weeks.
![Craft A Brew - Safale S-04 Dry Yeast - Fermentis - English Ale Dry Yeast - For English and American Ales and Hard Apple Ciders - Ingredients for Home Brewing - Beer Making Supplies - [1 Pack]](https://m.media-amazon.com/images/I/41fVGNh6JfL._SL500_.jpg)
trickytunadicky
Well-Known Member
Well My in-laws also live 3 miles from the Michigan border, and I can just grab whatever. So pumped for Strawberry Shorts cake. Haven't had it in ages.
Beerontwowheels
Well-Known Member
Pretty much perfect for AB-Inbev, no?
sacrelicio
Well-Known Member
Yeah we just got Prairie and we're getting Bruery and Perennial soon. I think what'll happen is that shelves will be locals and popular stuff from neighboring/nearby states (Central Waters and TG for us), big national craft (Lagunitas, Founders, Ballast Point) and then successful/hyped regional stuff like Prairie and Perennial. Earlier entrants to our market that don't sell well will get the ax.
Shelves in VT are overloaded with stuff from the larger craft brewers that sits and collects dust.
Firestone, Great Divide, Lagunitas, Founders, AleSmith, Ballast Point, Green Flash, Sixpoint, Victory and I'm sure there are many more I'm forgetting.
I can't remember the last time I bought a non-VT brewed beer and can't wait until stores pare back their offerings from the above places or stop carrying many of them outright.
Firestone, Great Divide, Lagunitas, Founders, AleSmith, Ballast Point, Green Flash, Sixpoint, Victory and I'm sure there are many more I'm forgetting.
I can't remember the last time I bought a non-VT brewed beer and can't wait until stores pare back their offerings from the above places or stop carrying many of them outright.
JBP
Well-Known Member
Fair points, though I would counter with my personal experience living in Maine. Allagash and Oxbow make world-class wilds, saisons, sours etc and over the past couple years the demand and interest for these beers has waned in this area. Bottle releases from these two breweries sit around with high/no limits for weeks, and sometimes literally months on end.
A place like Bissell Brothers makes a fine, but overall slightly above average IPA and line of other very similar IPAs and they have 50, 75, 100+ people regularly waiting in line for hours and selling out within 1-2 days. Add Foundation to this conversation as well. Both are now expanding significantly after just a couple short years.
The majority of breweries around here (including Banded Horn) are now rushing to put out cans of IPA and hoppy beer as fast as possible. Selling 4-packs of 16oz hoppy beer is basically like printing money at the moment.
Can you open up a brewery that specializes in a diverse range of styles? Sure, but you're going to struggle in Maine doing that in 2016.
But yes, most of all: this.
I think fresh and local is the 'in' thing right now. The market still has tons of room for growth in these niches as the lines indicate.
stupac2
Well-Known Member
But that could cause some amount of contraction for bigger brands. I wouldn't be surprised to see the larger craft brands experience some growing pains over the next decade, and with the investment in secondary breweries you might even see some failures (depending on the growth they need to be able to pay/finance the debt). People would call it a bubble bursting, but that would be a mistake. (It's weird how any sign of anything other than breakneck growth is called a bursting bubble. Businesses can fail in an industry without there being a bubble about to burst...)
user 305778
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Right, no one says there is a restaurant bubble but they are constantly being opened and closed all over. Or maybe people do and I just don't know.
OP
OP
JulianB1
Well-Known Member
People use the term "bubble" for any kind of rapid growth without understanding that it's the type of growth that constitutes a bubble economy.
If there are any signs of bubble economic activity in craft beer, it's breweries whose business plan seems to be "grow rapidly in a large/expanding market and sell out as quickly as possible". But I'd argue those are hard to spot other than in hindsight, and I don't see any real evidence they are more than a small fraction of breweries opening, recently opened, or in planning.
If there are any signs of bubble economic activity in craft beer, it's breweries whose business plan seems to be "grow rapidly in a large/expanding market and sell out as quickly as possible". But I'd argue those are hard to spot other than in hindsight, and I don't see any real evidence they are more than a small fraction of breweries opening, recently opened, or in planning.
PHBoiler
Well-Known Member
I think when folks reference a craft beer bubble simply in terms of breweries opening it could be referencing the housing bubble relative to folks who jumped into flipping houses with little to no experience. It's hard to differentiate what people actually are speaking toward when talking about a "bubble" but I would agree with it in that context. It's a boom period where hobbyists and sometimes people completely outside of craft beer are venturing into the business of craft beer. That aspect of this industry I believe is a bubble. You'll always have new breweries opening but in the future I think it will just be veteran breweries going out on their own. You see it outside of brewing specifically too with shop owners or bar owners getting into the craft beer business with limited knowledge of the industry or beer styles. The outsiders jumping into the industry will be the "bubble" aspect I think.
user 305778
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That's not a bubble though. That's just people with a terrible business plan deciding to start a business which will fail.
BadJustin
Well-Known Member
Local "beer bar" tapped a B. Nektar keg.
"Kill all the Golfers on tap! It's kind of sweet but delicious"
Me: "Well, it is made from honey soooooo"
**** me.
"Kill all the Golfers on tap! It's kind of sweet but delicious"
Me: "Well, it is made from honey soooooo"
**** me.
nathanmiller
Well-Known Member
tl;dr: craft beer isn't in a bubble and people need to stop using that word.
Long version:
A bubble, in economic terms, has a very specific set of meanings. Two of the three definitions at that link are relevant for discussions of craft beer's potential "bubble."
Let's dispel #3 first: For this to be true, we'd have to assume that beer prices are high above their true value, and rising, and that eventually, the bubble will pop, and the price of beer will crash down. This is absurd. The vast majority of craft beer sells very close to "true value" - the total profit for the producer and for each middleman is very, very thin, as competition drives prices of "basically-fungible craft beer" (i.e. the six-packs that make up most of the market) toward cost. This competition comes not only from other beer (especially true as acquisitions drive economies of scale down), but also from non-beer alternatives. And as for the more expensive, non-fungible "premier" sector of beer (i.e. all the **** we chase after), I have argued and will continue to argue that rare/limited beer is often (perhaps usually) underpriced, as the "true value" represents not only the cost of the materials/labor (as is true for commoditized beer) but also the value associated with demand. Are prices high above their true value? Perhaps in some specific instances, but overall, no. Are these prices rising rapidly? No.
#1 seems to be what most people think of when they think of bubble: we have too many new breweries and they're all gonna collapse. I believe this is wrong. First, we have not seen "rapid expansion" by any means. In the US, since 2012, we've seen the following growth rates in new breweries: 18.8% (2013), 27.6% (2014), 14.7% (2015). Meanwhile, beer production at the same time has increased as follows: 17.0% (2013), 42.9% (2014), 10.7% (2015). 2014 looks a bit nuts, but overall we're seeing the same trend: more breweries opening to contribute more production to a steadily growing sector of consumer demand.
More importantly is the fact that craft beer has yet to attain market saturation in almost any market. Some may argue that Portland, OR, has finally reached that point, but even still I would argue there's more room to grow - craft beer will have reached market saturation when the production/sales cannot rise further. As of now, that's a far way away - there's plenty of segment to attract away from macro, from imports, and from non-beer alcoholic alternatives, as we're seeing constantly.
Will breweries close? Yes, but that's part of a healthy market. An unhealthy market might show no closures (that would be a good indication of bubble conditions - similar to how preceding the housing crisis in 2008, houses rarely went down in value, even as they were being sold from buyer to buyer), or perhaps an absurd amount of closures (i.e. where the rate of closures surpasses the rate of openings), but some closings by no means signals a problem, or a bubble.
Compare breweries to restaurants in an under-served (perhaps a growing suburb) area: many restaurants will open, and this number will continue to rise as the area grows. Meanwhile, some will close, especially as some of the restaurants are better than others. When the market is mature, the openings will steady out, but we won't see a "contraction" of restaurants. Similarly, when breweries eventually do reach the point that the market has matured (and we're far, far away from that), openings will steady out, but we shouldn't expect a major contraction. Closings and openings will happen as in any other mature industry, like the overall restaurant industry.
Finally, inb4 this:
Long version:
A bubble, in economic terms, has a very specific set of meanings. Two of the three definitions at that link are relevant for discussions of craft beer's potential "bubble."
Let's dispel #3 first: For this to be true, we'd have to assume that beer prices are high above their true value, and rising, and that eventually, the bubble will pop, and the price of beer will crash down. This is absurd. The vast majority of craft beer sells very close to "true value" - the total profit for the producer and for each middleman is very, very thin, as competition drives prices of "basically-fungible craft beer" (i.e. the six-packs that make up most of the market) toward cost. This competition comes not only from other beer (especially true as acquisitions drive economies of scale down), but also from non-beer alternatives. And as for the more expensive, non-fungible "premier" sector of beer (i.e. all the **** we chase after), I have argued and will continue to argue that rare/limited beer is often (perhaps usually) underpriced, as the "true value" represents not only the cost of the materials/labor (as is true for commoditized beer) but also the value associated with demand. Are prices high above their true value? Perhaps in some specific instances, but overall, no. Are these prices rising rapidly? No.
#1 seems to be what most people think of when they think of bubble: we have too many new breweries and they're all gonna collapse. I believe this is wrong. First, we have not seen "rapid expansion" by any means. In the US, since 2012, we've seen the following growth rates in new breweries: 18.8% (2013), 27.6% (2014), 14.7% (2015). Meanwhile, beer production at the same time has increased as follows: 17.0% (2013), 42.9% (2014), 10.7% (2015). 2014 looks a bit nuts, but overall we're seeing the same trend: more breweries opening to contribute more production to a steadily growing sector of consumer demand.
More importantly is the fact that craft beer has yet to attain market saturation in almost any market. Some may argue that Portland, OR, has finally reached that point, but even still I would argue there's more room to grow - craft beer will have reached market saturation when the production/sales cannot rise further. As of now, that's a far way away - there's plenty of segment to attract away from macro, from imports, and from non-beer alcoholic alternatives, as we're seeing constantly.
Will breweries close? Yes, but that's part of a healthy market. An unhealthy market might show no closures (that would be a good indication of bubble conditions - similar to how preceding the housing crisis in 2008, houses rarely went down in value, even as they were being sold from buyer to buyer), or perhaps an absurd amount of closures (i.e. where the rate of closures surpasses the rate of openings), but some closings by no means signals a problem, or a bubble.
Compare breweries to restaurants in an under-served (perhaps a growing suburb) area: many restaurants will open, and this number will continue to rise as the area grows. Meanwhile, some will close, especially as some of the restaurants are better than others. When the market is mature, the openings will steady out, but we won't see a "contraction" of restaurants. Similarly, when breweries eventually do reach the point that the market has matured (and we're far, far away from that), openings will steady out, but we shouldn't expect a major contraction. Closings and openings will happen as in any other mature industry, like the overall restaurant industry.
Finally, inb4 this:
Gonzoillini1
Well-Known Member
Josh2
Premium Non-Supporting Supporter
INRATtl;dr: craft beer isn't in a bubble and people need to stop using that word.
Long version:
A bubble, in economic terms, has a very specific set of meanings. Two of the three definitions at that link are relevant for discussions of craft beer's potential "bubble."
Let's dispel #3 first: For this to be true, we'd have to assume that beer prices are high above their true value, and rising, and that eventually, the bubble will pop, and the price of beer will crash down. This is absurd. The vast majority of craft beer sells very close to "true value" - the total profit for the producer and for each middleman is very, very thin, as competition drives prices of "basically-fungible craft beer" (i.e. the six-packs that make up most of the market) toward cost. This competition comes not only from other beer (especially true as acquisitions drive economies of scale down), but also from non-beer alternatives. And as for the more expensive, non-fungible "premier" sector of beer (i.e. all the **** we chase after), I have argued and will continue to argue that rare/limited beer is often (perhaps usually) underpriced, as the "true value" represents not only the cost of the materials/labor (as is true for commoditized beer) but also the value associated with demand. Are prices high above their true value? Perhaps in some specific instances, but overall, no. Are these prices rising rapidly? No.
#1 seems to be what most people think of when they think of bubble: we have too many new breweries and they're all gonna collapse. I believe this is wrong. First, we have not seen "rapid expansion" by any means. In the US, since 2012, we've seen the following growth rates in new breweries: 18.8% (2013), 27.6% (2014), 14.7% (2015). Meanwhile, beer production at the same time has increased as follows: 17.0% (2013), 42.9% (2014), 10.7% (2015). 2014 looks a bit nuts, but overall we're seeing the same trend: more breweries opening to contribute more production to a steadily growing sector of consumer demand.
More importantly is the fact that craft beer has yet to attain market saturation in almost any market. Some may argue that Portland, OR, has finally reached that point, but even still I would argue there's more room to grow - craft beer will have reached market saturation when the production/sales cannot rise further. As of now, that's a far way away - there's plenty of segment to attract away from macro, from imports, and from non-beer alcoholic alternatives, as we're seeing constantly.
Will breweries close? Yes, but that's part of a healthy market. An unhealthy market might show no closures (that would be a good indication of bubble conditions - similar to how preceding the housing crisis in 2008, houses rarely went down in value, even as they were being sold from buyer to buyer), or perhaps an absurd amount of closures (i.e. where the rate of closures surpasses the rate of openings), but some closings by no means signals a problem, or a bubble.
Compare breweries to restaurants in an under-served (perhaps a growing suburb) area: many restaurants will open, and this number will continue to rise as the area grows. Meanwhile, some will close, especially as some of the restaurants are better than others. When the market is mature, the openings will steady out, but we won't see a "contraction" of restaurants. Similarly, when breweries eventually do reach the point that the market has matured (and we're far, far away from that), openings will steady out, but we shouldn't expect a major contraction. Closings and openings will happen as in any other mature industry, like the overall restaurant industry.
Finally, inb4 this:
jivex5k1
VEdKb0lHVnlaMjVsY1hKeElIQm9ZV2M=
I always pictured the "craft beer bubble" quite literally.
lazerviking
Well-Known Member
Truly your worst material yet, which is saying a lot.I always pictured the "craft beer bubble" quite literally.
jivex5k1
VEdKb0lHVnlaMjVsY1hKeElIQm9ZV2M=
Thanks Mike.
regularjohn
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LukeAleTime
Well-Known Member
At an event last night there were a bunch of random bottles around. One beer called "Dark Lord" from a small brewery in NZ. There was a guy there that was enraged that they dared use the name of "one of the best beers, probably the best stout, on the planet". He was even more enraged when I pointed out the NZ brewery had probably never heard of it. Like, I think he started foaming at the mouth a little.
sacrelicio
Well-Known Member
