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I should point out... There appears to be NO documentation for what NFL.com does regarding tiebreakers. The little bit that I found suggested that they do it this way, but I did more research and it appears they may NOT do an iterative process where they remove the seed that advances and then re-run the calculation based on remaining tied teams.

So maybe it's all BS...
 
And it all comes down to MNF...

  • Prestige (10-3), who failed to start a TE and is projected to lose to Hop To It, still has a chance with Tyreek Hill left to play to lock up the top seed with a win. However, it's probably a moot point, and Prestige is likely to still gain the top seed even in a loss because...
  • Bar Flies (9-4) leads Bones (9-4) by 16 points with both of their defenses left to play. Bar Flies has the Packers defense against the Danny DeVito-led Giants, whereas Bones has the Dolphins defense in what might end up a shootout with the TItans. Unless craziness ensues, Bar Flies likely wins tonight and yet loses the H2H tiebreaker* if Prestige loses to secure the #2 seed. But that seed still confers a first-round bye, so it's an important distinction.
  • Muggers (7-6) trails Big Gulps (6-7) by ~14. Muggers has 3 players left to go tonight to Gulps' 2. Gulps is projected to win, but it's still anyone's matchup. By my understanding of the tiebreakers*, Muggers is already in the playoffs with a loss and Gulps gets in with a win, while Gulps is almost assuredly out with a loss.
  • IPA/Blonde (7-6) trails Dawg Pound (6-7) by just over 15. Dawg is done for the night, while IPA/Blonde has Romeo Doubs from the Packers left to go. IPA/Blonde needs Doubs to exceed projection by 4 points to close that gap. So it's still anyone's game. IPA/Blonde is believed to be in the playoffs with a win but likely out with a loss (due to tiebreakers*), whereas Dawg even with a win may depend on the tiebreakers* and what happens in...
  • Fury (6-7) trails Patronus (5-8) by a little over 15. Patronus is done for the night, and Fury has Derrick Henry and De'von Achane. Projection-wise, Fury is expected to close that gap and then some. If all projections hold and we have a 3-way tie, my understanding of the tiebreakers* is that Fury is in with a win. However, a win may not be enough depending on other outcomes.
So we still have 5 teams fighting for the final 3 playoff spots, with nothing decided until the games go final tonight.

Good luck all!

* As I've stated, NFL.com does NOT document their tiebreakers. The method I described last week (iterative process comparing H2H amongst tied teams by win percentage, and removing teams as they secure their spot and re-running with remaining teams) would yield my understanding of how H2H works. However, I have found one discussion online where they merely run a single-pass of H2H amongst tied teams by win percentage, and if for example we had 5 teams tied for 3 spots they'd just take the top three without iterating through. I've also seen that if teams do not have equal number of games amongst tied teams--and we do not--apparently ESPN.com just defaults to points scored as the second tiebreaker. I don't know if NFL.com does that. So my tiebreaker knowledge might be wrong.
 
Well, I guess I predicted the tiebreaker correctly.

Congratulations to Fury for making the playoffs! What seemed like an insurmountable task back when sitting on a 2-7 record turned into a 5-game winning streak, a 7-7 finish, and the right things happening tiebreaker-wise to get there. Of course, it requires extending that streak by two more wins to be receiving, rather than shipping, beer. And three to receive LOTS of beer.

So with that preamble, let's review how the 6 who got in got there:

  • Hop To It (5-9) def Prestige Worldwide (10-4), 138.26 to 110.44: A rather lackluster matchup as Prestige had already locked up one of the top two seeds and a first round bye. Prestige didn't even bother replacing Logan Thomas who was on bye in their starting lineup. The loss ended up not mattering as Prestige still carries the #1 seed into the playoffs.
  • Bar Flies (10-4) def Bones are their Money (9-5), 143.12 to 136.04: This one was a nailbiter! Bones jumped out to a lead in the 1 ET games on Sunday, but Bar Flies closed that gap in the 4 PM games and in Sunday Night Football. On Monday night, both teams still had only their defenses remaining, with Bar Flies now up 16 points. But Bones' Dolphins defense started going nuts, even scoring a defensive touchdown, while the Packers did very little to stop Danny DeVito and the Giants. At one point I believe the Dolphins defense had as many as 18 points on the board. In the end, though, Bar Flies scored just enough to keep the lead, as Bones' defense started giving up points and their total dropped. Bar Flies secures the #2 slot and a first round bye, which may come in handy as #1 overall draft pick Justin Jefferson left the game due to injury and is day-to-day.
  • Big Gulps (7-7) def Milwaukee Muggers (7-7), 126.78 to 108.72: This one came down to Monday Night, with the Muggers having three players going and Big Gulps having two. Gulps had a lead and extended, led by a big game by De'Andre Hopkins. Muggers had a big game from Raheem Mostert as well, but it wasn't enough to close the gap. Muggers (by my reckoning) was already a playoff lock and the only question was seeding, so they secure the #4 seed. Gulps needed this win, and slips into the #6 seed.
  • Finger Lakes Fury (7-7) def Beer is my Patronus (5-9), 163.62 to 149.84: As mentioned, Fury was sitting at 2-7 just 5 weeks back, despite being one of the leagues top-scoring teams at that point. Well, five straight wins later, Fury is going to the playoffs! Patronus had a big day from Lamar Jackson, but Fury got double-digit scoring from all but one player. Patronus was not so lucky, getting a goose egg from Taysom Hill who was ruled out prior to the game and a negative score from kicker Matt Gay. Fury slots into the #5 seed.
  • Dawg Pound (7-7) def Mr IPA and Mrs Blonde (7-7), 121.02 to 112.94: What was a stressful matchup for both teams resulted in them gaining the #1 and #2 seeds and a first round bye... In the consolation bracket. Dawg got off to a dreadful start with Demario Douglas in the starting lineup on Thursday despite being declared inactive. Both teams had rather pedestrian scoring, well below their season averages, but Dawg built a lead going into Monday Night Football that IPA/Blonde couldn't surmount. IPA/Blonde would have made the playoffs with a win but lost all tiebreakers at 7-7, and didn't get help from the Muggers or Patronus to avoid a tiebreaker. Dawg likewise needed a win and help from others to secure the right tiebreaker, and didn't get it.
So we're at the playoffs. This weeks matchups:

  • #1 seed, Prestige Worldwide: With the bye, there's no stress this week. Next week they will face the winner of the Muggers/Fury matchup.
  • #2 seed, Bar Flies: Same, a stress-free week. Next week will face the winner of the Bones/Gulps matchup
  • #3 Bones are their Money vs #6 Big Gulps: Bones, led by Dak Prescott, Ja'Marr Chase, and a possibly resurgent Cooper Kupp, face of with Gulps and Jalen Hurts, De'Andre Hopkins, and a Bijan Robinson who is finally getting fed by the coaching staff. This should be a star-studded matchup and worth the price of admission.
  • #4 Milwaukee Muggers vs #5 Finger Lakes Fury: Can the Fury keep the streak alive, or will they fall to the Muggers? It might be the battle of the Josh[ua]'s, with Joshua Dobbs having a degree in aerospace engineering and the only wings Josh Allen are familiar with are Buffalo wings. Or it might come down to the question of whether Raheem Mostert or De'Von Achane gets the points in the high-flying Miami offense. But both teams will at least know their fate on Sunday night, as neither team has any players currently on the roster, much less the starting lineup, in the Monday night slate.

Good luck to all!
 
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Thank you @betarhoalphadelta for the write ups! I did it, now hopefully I keep it going. 🤞🏻
 
For those of you playing in multiple leagues, how are you doing elsewhere?

As I've mentioned, my other league is a 20-team monstrosity. Which has been... Insane. At one point I was rostering my backup QB's backup QB, because the backup was Mac Jones and I was worried he'd be benched for Bailey Zappe on my starter's (Dak's) bye week. I often don't even roster a backup QB in most leagues. Since the bye I've traded Jones away but now I'm rostering *both* of Dak's backups on the off chance that if Dak gets injured they'd start Trey Lance over Cooper Rush lol... The league has multiple trades every week, the waiver wire is bare, and you're sometimes relying on starting players that aren't even rostered in this league lol. It's been an adventure!

But I managed to finish first in my division and have a bye this week for the start of the playoffs. And this league gives a monetary payout for division winners, which covered my entry fee and should give me a little head start on the beer I need to buy for whoever wins this league. A few more wins to get into the top 3 spots and I could be looking at a nice payout on top of it. Finishing in the top 3 over there would certainly take the sting away of not making the playoffs here lol...
 
I'm in 8 leagues. Locked in with a bye on 2 of them. No chance in hell on 3 of them. The other 3 teams are decided at the end of this week. So, I might be in the playoffs in as many as 5 leagues or as little as 2.

I love me some football!
 
I’m in two other leagues. The neighborhood one I was in third place and lost last week and finished in 6th place. Made the playoffs and hopeful to win out as there’s a big cash prize. Although I’ve won back half my fees to date this season.

The other league I’m at the bottom and I’m out.

I’m looking forward to winning this league and getting some beer. 😝👍🏽
 
Chorgey said:
I'm in 8 leagues. Locked in with a bye on 2 of them. No chance in hell on 3 of them. The other 3 teams are decided at the end of this week. So, I might be in the playoffs in as many as 5 leagues or as little as 2.

I love me some football!
Click to expand...
Wow... 8 leagues? I can't imagine that. Not that I couldn't swing it, but I don't think I'd want to.

I find it hard enough when I'm starting a player in this league but facing that player in the 20-team league or vice versa. I'd assume in 8 leagues you're dealing with that basically every single week. Knowing you need >13.5 points from a player to win in one league but if the player gets >11.2 points in another league you lose that matchup?

How do you handle that? Just kinda ignore it? Do you try to get the same players in multiple leagues so it happens less often?
 
Two of the leagues are either small payout or no payout. I just let it slide on those

It definitely gets crazy with rooting for someone but you don’t want them to score too much. I try to target the same players but it all depends on what spot that I’m picking at.
 
And then there were four.

  • #4 Milwaukee Muggers def #5 Finger Lakes Fury, 165.22 to 96.16: A thorough drubbing, and an end to the Cinderella story, as the Fury, who had completed their 5-game win streak with no score lower than 144 points (and three above 160), fails to reach the century mark for the first time this season. The Muggers were led by big numbers from Scary Terry, Tee Higgins, and Raheem Mostert, while only one of the Fury's RB/WR/TE group managed to score in the double digits. In the QB matchup, Russell Wilson uncharacteristically outscored Josh Allen, with Allen's terrible passing yardage performance being somewhat "saved" by two TDs, one rushing and one passing. With a big number, the Muggers survive and advance. The Muggers move on to face #1 seed Prestige Worldwide, led by <checks notes, double-checks, does spit take, triple checks> Joe Flacco(?!), and hoping Tyreek Hill comes back after missing last week.
  • #3 Bones are their Money def #6 Big Gulps, 147.66 to 138.42: A wire-to-wire win for Bones, who got off to an early lead behind Ja'Maar Chase and Joe Mixon on Saturday, and never let up. However, despite the lead, it came down to Monday night, with Bones starting Tyler Lockett and D'Andre Swift, while Gulps deployed his star QB, Jalen Hurts. But in the Eagles' loss, Hurts simply didn't put up enough points--despite 2 rushing TDs--to make up the deficit. So while Bones didn't manage to secure the first round bye in the playoffs, they didn't end up needing it, and advance. Bones will face #3 seed Bar Flies, who will be looking for big games from Mr Irrelevant and JJettas.
So in an anticlimactic turn, the top 4 seeds will be the final four teams. One more win ensures you'll be receiving, rather than shipping, beer.

Good luck to all!
 
Last edited:
VirginiaHops1 said:
I would’ve felt dirty if I won because of that. GL in the next game and enjoy the beer!
Click to expand...
It certainly kept things interesting with me needing some good points out of the ravens defense against the 49ers. I watched that game refreshing the fantasy score after every significant play.
 
Recap:
  • #4 Milwaukee Muggers def #1 Prestige Worldwide, 162.42 to 155.64: A week that will come down to one coach second-guessing his decision while another kicks himself for nearly shooting himself in his own foot. Prestige chose to start Nick Mullens over Joe Flacco, and Mullens' four picks led to him scoring about 13 fewer points than Flacco on the bench. Those 13 points would have been enough to tip the matchup *IF* Milwaukee Muggers didn't pivot to Zamir White upon learning Josh Jacobs would be inactive. White's 15 points would have been enough to overcome a Flacco start. Both coaches are going to have to clean this sort of stuff up before the Muggers go to the championship and Prestige faces the 3rd-place game. Prestige jumped out to a massive early lead with a monster game from Puka Nacua, and had strong performances from Zeke Elliott and Tyreek Hill. But it wasn't enough, as the Muggers got a big late-game surge from Russell Wilson, big games from Mike Evans, Tee Higgins, and kicker Jason Sanders, on top of a strong 4 sack / 5 interception performance from the Ravens defense to seal it on Christmas night. The Muggers move on to play for all the marbles beer.
  • #2 Bar Flies def #3 Bones are their Money, 137.10 to 116.32: Bar Flies survived a dreadful outing from QB Brock Purdy, but had 5 other skill players averaging a combined 21.2 points to bring the total up. Still, 137.10 was the third-lowest score of any of the 8 teams left in either the championship or consolation bracket this weekend. Luckily, however, Bones ended up with the lowest score. For Bones, Dak had a decent overall number (esp. compared to Purdy), but with only two other players going over 15 points, it was going to be an uphill battle. Bar Flies is going to need to return to the regular-season form (#2 scoring team in the regular season) for next week's championship matchup.
This week:
  • #2 Bar Flies vs #4 Milwaukee Muggers: It comes down to two of our fantasy league regulars in the HomeBrewTalk Fantasy Super Bowl. Mr Unlimited vs Mr Irrelevant behind center, in a championship matchup that I certainly wouldn't have predicted preseason. We have the unlikeliest of running back league leaders in the TD column in Raheem Mostert, facing the league's overall #1 pick but in Justin Jefferson. The Muggers are going to have to monitor some injury situations (hopefully better than last week!), while Bar Flies appears to be mostly healthy behind a slightly hobbled Brock Purdy which is a situation to watch. It should be an epic battle!
 
Congratulations to the Milwaukee Muggers ( @TallDan ) on taking the 2023 HBT Fantasy Football Crown!

Dominant performances by Isaiah Pacheco and DJ Moore, and a serviceable start by Jarrett Stidham, put him over Bar Flies by over 30 points. Justin Jefferson in the late game wasn't enough for Bar Flies to catch up.

We'll be waiting for a PM on your address for shipment!

In third place, Bones defeated Prestige for the right to choose who to ship to. It looks like the Muggers are in the Midwest (Chicago area) and Bar Flies is in NJ, so you can choose what the most convenient option will be.
 
Congrats @TallDan You, @Chorgey & @VirginiaHops1 ran strong through the end of the season and I knew you were forces to be reckoned with. Over 160 in each playoff game is impressive.

And thank you @betarhoalphadelta for the write ups. I wasn't super active in the message boards, but I loved the writeups. The level of detail you provide is awesome.

As I'm in MA, I'll choose to ship to NJ. @Chorgey let me know your favorite styles and I'll get a package out.
 
I'll send PMs with my address here in a few minutes. As for beer styles - I like to try pretty much everything, so don't worry about avoiding any, and I tend to like what most everyone else likes. If you need a style or two to go off of, I always enjoy fresh IPAs and big stouts and barleywines. Most anything Barrel Aged is great. Sours are fine, but don't always excite me like they used to.

Since the last time I won, I kinda dropped the ball on keeping track of who sent beer, I'm going to try to be a little more organized this time. Please verify the list below, I think I have all of the Teams matched up to the right HBT usernames, but I'm not real sure I have the right people for the two teams that start with "Beer", so everyone double check me.

@Chorgey (Bar Flies - Chorgey) (second place - receives from @troglodytes )
@troglodytes (Bones are Their Money) (third place - ships to @Chorgey )
@VirginiaHops1 (Prestige Worldwide)
@pshankstar (Finger Lakes Fury)
@TBC (Big Gulps)
@LoneTreeFarms ? (Beer is my Patronus)
@gromitdj ? (Beer with Mahomeys)
@_BullDog_ (Dawg Pound)
@betarhoalphadelta (Mr IPA and MRS Blonde)
@lupulinaddict (Fill my Kupp)
@Thorrak (Hop to it)
 
I am as into coffee as I am beer!

And as I mentioned in the PM, I'm also probably the worst shipping procrastinator in this league, so don't feel pressured to ship immediately, I'm patient.

As @pshankstar pointed out in PM, going back to the first post in this thread the rule was to ship a bomber of commercial craft beer. Not sure what the rule was in the other league that merged into this one, but I'd consider a "modern interpretation" of that rule to be 22oz or more of commercial craft beer. Of course, extras (commercial or home-brew) will not be rejected. :)
 
You've got my username / team right.

I'll try to find some good local CA brews for you that probably aren't distributed in IL. I assume you've had Pliny, right? If not, I'll make sure to include it. If so, maybe I'll try to find some more obscure RR beers.

BTW while I guess the "rule" is a minimum of a 22 oz bomber of commercial beer, everything I've ever seen people ship is typically in the realm of 6-8 singles of varying size (some 16 oz tall boys, occasional bomber, maybe some 12oz cans, etc), so that's usually the range of what I've sent in the past. That's the "norm" if not the "rule".
 
betarhoalphadelta said:
You've got my username / team right.

I'll try to find some good local CA brews for you that probably aren't distributed in IL. I assume you've had Pliny, right? If not, I'll make sure to include it. If so, maybe I'll try to find some more obscure RR beers.

BTW while I guess the "rule" is a minimum of a 22 oz bomber of commercial beer, everything I've ever seen people ship is typically in the realm of 6-8 singles of varying size (some 16 oz tall boys, occasional bomber, maybe some 12oz cans, etc), so that's usually the range of what I've sent in the past. That's the "norm" if not the "rule".
Click to expand...
Yeah, I’ve had Pliny. I’d be happy to have it again, but it’s not on my beer bucket list anymore. (I can’t think of anything off the top of my head that would be on such a list now, actually.)
 
TallDan said:
I'll send PMs with my address here in a few minutes. As for beer styles - I like to try pretty much everything, so don't worry about avoiding any, and I tend to like what most everyone else likes. If you need a style or two to go off of, I always enjoy fresh IPAs and big stouts and barleywines. Most anything Barrel Aged is great. Sours are fine, but don't always excite me like they used to.

Since the last time I won, I kinda dropped the ball on keeping track of who sent beer, I'm going to try to be a little more organized this time. Please verify the list below, I think I have all of the Teams matched up to the right HBT usernames, but I'm not real sure I have the right people for the two teams that start with "Beer", so everyone double check me.

@Chorgey (Bar Flies - Chorgey) (second place - receives from @troglodytes )
@troglodytes (Bones are Their Money) (third place - ships to @Chorgey )
@VirginiaHops1 (Prestige Worldwide)
@pshankstar (Finger Lakes Fury)
@TBC (Big Gulps)
@LoneTreeFarms ? (Beer is my Patronus)
@gromitdj ? (Beer with Mahomeys)
@_BullDog_ (Dawg Pound)
@betarhoalphadelta (Mr IPA and MRS Blonde)
@lupulinaddict (Fill my Kupp)
@Thorrak (Hop to it)
Click to expand...
Not me, I opted out this year. Too many commitments.
 

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