Poll: Do you have, or plan to get, an electric car?

[mac_1103]

Please don't try to hang the shareholder-value banner on me, you don't know me.
Making the popular decision can mean making the wrong decision when it comes to early cycle technology.
And making a wrong decision for whatever reason can mean wasted resources and money.
As an investor I care about all waste.

Maybe we shouldn't go too far down this particular rabbit hole, seeing as we know essentially nothing at all about the company in question except that they employ a fellow forum member's wife. I tend to doubt that people running a company with 7000+ employees would waste resources just to be popular, but who knows?

 

[sibelman]

Please don't try to hang the shareholder-value banner on me,

As an investor I care about all waste.

rabbit hole

Okay. Maybe wasteful. Maybe not. Easy to see how this feels like a dubious corporate choice. Like insane CEO salaries, perhaps. Or other excessive perks.

 

[Bilsch]

If said company pays for the fuel and maintenance on these vehicles then it's a no brainier.

 

[Kent88]

Yea not what I had typed but still gets the idea across I guess.

Yeah, I guess the profanity filter is getting creative.

 

[mac_1103]

I guess the profanity filter is getting creative.

Might have to do some testing...

 

[Kent88]

Or maybe the profanity filter doesn't want to be tested.

 

[govner1]

Does every employee get a company car? Or just the ones senior enough to have a kept man at home?

Not every employee. Just the ones that work in the field daily and I am proud to be a kept man!

 

[Airborneguy]

I jumped straight into home charging so I don’t have hard data but I can compare my Outback (26mpg) somewhat. It’s very close, but the Tesla is still cheaper when on roadtrips. I spend

I dissuaded my father from buying a Lightning for this reason. He doesn’t even have access to 120v charging at his apartment.

 

[Airborneguy]

Far more realistic than the oil-funded lie that 46% will switch back. Again, I get that it's an anecdote, but I've not met a SINGLE ONE saying they're going back. Not one. It's usually vehemently the opposite: I'll NEVER go back.

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

The major takeaway for me though is that battery costs have fallen by 50% in just 2 years and continue to drop. The price of engines has not come down so it's not hard to see the writing on the wall.

Have battery costs dropped 50%, or have battery prices dropped 50%? If it's only the latter, I wouldn't expect it to continue at that pace. We might be in an oversupply situation where battery makers have been increasing production capacity expecting a certain market volume, and now pricing has dropped below cost. (I know these situations well; my industry just came out of a year+ episode of this and it was painful.)

That said, if this is the case it will help me. Battery costs dropping that quickly will savage the resale value of EVs, so in ~3 years or so when I'm potentially in the market, there should be a ton of gently used EVs on the market selling for rock bottom because new EVs have significantly fallen in price over the intervening 3 years...

 

[Bilsch]

Have battery costs dropped 50%, or have battery prices dropped 50%? If it's only the latter, I wouldn't expect it to continue at that pace. We might be in an oversupply situation where battery makers have been increasing production capacity expecting a certain market volume, and now pricing has dropped below cost. (I know these situations well; my industry just came out of a year+ episode of this and it was painful.)

That said, if this is the case it will help me. Battery costs dropping that quickly will savage the resale value of EVs, so in ~3 years or so when I'm potentially in the market, there should be a ton of gently used EVs on the market selling for rock bottom because new EVs have significantly fallen in price over the intervening 3 years...

From what I gather it’s both. While the glut of cells should resolve itself fairly soon the cost will keep falling with the advent of the latest lithium iron variants by CATL and BYD. These really are game changing technologies. Smaller, lighter, cheaper, more energy dense. They also don’t suffer from low temperature charging issues and can accept very high charge rates with no long term degradation. These batteries are already going into vehicles so it’s not something that might happen but instead is happening. I think you are spot on that the prices of used EV will fall along with the prices of all vehicles gas or electric. Also we are going to see a lot of car manufacturers cease to exist. They will play the price war as long as possible but in the end the result will be the same.

 

[sibelman]

These batteries are already going into vehicles

• From, of all places, pcmag.com last fall: Toyota says it has found a technological breakthrough that will allow it to bring solid state batteries to market as early as 2027.
• From techradar.com this week: Geely has just announced new self-developed battery technology that it says can achieve 3,500 charging cycles, which is the equivalent of charging and driving for one million kilometers (621,372 miles) with minimal impact to battery performance.
• From electrek.com in April: Leading EV battery maker CATL released its new breakthrough battery pack with up to a nearly 1 million mile (1.5 million km), 15-year warranty.

I'm excited about truly breakthrough battery tech, but I seem to have missed the news, so please help me out: which currently shipping vehicles sport truly new battery tech, @Bilsch ?

 

[Kharnynb]

once batterypacks get cheap enough that it's only 2000 or so to replace one, so the secondhand market starts to become useful, then it really becomes interesting, since there's less wearing parts on ev's.

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

From what I gather it’s both. While the glut of cells should resolve itself fairly soon the cost will keep falling with the advent of the latest lithium iron variants by CATL and BYD. These really are game changing technologies. Smaller, lighter, cheaper, more energy dense. They also don’t suffer from low temperature charging issues and can accept very high charge rates with no long term degradation. These batteries are already going into vehicles so it’s not something that might happen but instead is happening. I think you are spot on that the prices of used EV will fall along with the prices of all vehicles gas or electric. Also we are going to see a lot of car manufacturers cease to exist. They will play the price war as long as possible but in the end the result will be the same.

Thanks. Based on what I've been reading, it looks like industry projections are to go from 2023 prices of ~$133/kWh to $113 by 2025 and $80 by 2030. That's pretty substantial and important.

Given the percentage of vehicle price that is tied up in batteries, that's huge.

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

• From, of all places, pcmag.com last fall: Toyota says it has found a technological breakthrough that will allow it to bring solid state batteries to market as early as 2027.

Color me a little bit skeptical. Every technology sounds great in a laboratory. Until they prove that they can scale it up in manufacturing, at a competitive or better cost, it's unclear how to take it.

Consider that Toyota is widely (and IMHO accurately) believed to be behind in EV tech development. Promising a groundbreaking development that's "just around the corner" may cause buyers to hold off on purchasing a competing EV product in order to wait until Toyota brings this new/better/revolutionary product to market, or even just until Toyota catches up in EV with today's tech. Or may convince buyers that a Toyota ICEV/hybrid/PHEV is the car to buy now and then turn around and buy a solid state based product in 2029-30 or so.

Maybe they're really onto something. Or maybe this is just marketing showing that Toyota is "in the EV game" and potentially even AHEAD of the competition, but without actually having to deliver a product.

 

[sibelman]

Maybe they're really onto something. Or maybe this is just marketing

Akio Toyoda has publicly and repeatedly stated a modest priority for EVs. So, as with other exciting battery tech announcements (usually not from car builders), it's too early to open the champagne. Of course, Toyota (with Subaru) is shipping a credible EV. But their web site doesn't even separate out BEVs. Hybrids are lumped in with the bZ4X under "electrified"

industry projections

Also positive, but not yet worthy of cork-popping -- projections are just that of course.

All that said, I do expect (another projection!) that by the time I'm ready to replace my 2018 Bolt EV (with 2022 battery pack), batteries will be way better and far cheaper.

 

[Bilsch]

• From, of all places, pcmag.com last fall: Toyota says it has found a technological breakthrough that will allow it to bring solid state batteries to market as early as 2027.
• From techradar.com this week: Geely has just announced new self-developed battery technology that it says can achieve 3,500 charging cycles, which is the equivalent of charging and driving for one million kilometers (621,372 miles) with minimal impact to battery performance.
• From electrek.com in April: Leading EV battery maker CATL released its new breakthrough battery pack with up to a nearly 1 million mile (1.5 million km), 15-year warranty.

I'm excited about truly breakthrough battery tech, but I seem to have missed the news, so please help me out: which currently shipping vehicles sport truly new battery tech, @Bilsch ?

Solid state batteries are still a ways off sadly and are proving to be more difficult then originally thought. Toyota is far behind in battery tech but has a great PR dept that loves to use the words "technological breakthrough" having said this many times about it's hydrogen concepts.

BYD 2nd gen LiFePo4 Blade batteries with high manganese (and probably silicon) are the ones to watch. They are currently going in some BYD models. Also take a look at CATL Qilin battery tech which is being modified similar to the above. They are being sold in a couple Zeeker models in China and possibly others by now.

While the world sat around waiting for that new technological breakthrough which would finally allow EV to go 1000 miles with a 5 minute charge China was making consistent and appreciable improvements to current technology that pretty much snuck up on everyone. With these new batteries I mentioned EV can go 1000km and charge to 80% in 10 minutes.
I mean that should be close enough, no?

The sad thing to me is while we sit around in the US and argue/fight about green energy, EV, advanced nuclear, fast trains etc ect. the Chinese are every day making these things a reality. China already has Gen 4 gas cooled pebble bed reactors in commercial operation. Here we sit with aging Gen II reactors and only talk about anything better.
Welp.. I guess we all better get started learning to speak Mandarin.

 

[tracer bullet]

Far more realistic than the oil-funded lie that 46% will switch back. Again, I get that it's an anecdote, but I've not met a SINGLE ONE saying they're going back. Not one. It's usually vehemently the opposite: I'll NEVER go back.

I've got a half dozen or so friends and coworkers with EV's that say the exact same thing. They'll never buy anything else from here out.

 

[Airborneguy]

Every Facebook posting about this nonsense “survey” is full of comments like ours. They should have went with 20% or so. It would have been somewhat believable.

 

[sibelman]

nonsense “survey”

<whiny voice> B..b..but I read about it on the internet. And then I heard about it on the news. <confident voice> So it must be true.

 

[AzOr]

Can anyone recommend a good ev review channel on YouTube? There are a few ice car channels that I trust, for ex Car care nut, Car wizard etc.

I may be in the market for a used ev. I’m not sure if I’ll get something cheap for my commute, or something nicer my wife can drive and I’ll take over her Camry.

 

[Kent88]

E For Electric used to be good, but the host, who I'll call Gooberman, decided to try taking the channel in a direction that got him on manufacturers "do not invite to events or give interviews" list.

State of Charge is on the dry side, but it has some good info.

Munro Live... I hadn't checked it for a while, it looks like they've been doing some different stuff for a couple months. They have some good content, too. Occasionally some strange content as well, but it's worth checking out.

 

[tracer bullet]

SavageGeese and Autogefuhl are among my favorite reviewers, not EV specific but they both cover a lot of EV's.

SG doesn't hold back on good or bad, and AG tends to like everything but excels in showing you detailed info.

 

[beren]

Technology connections is a really great YouTube channel and he goes over his car at least

 

[Kharnynb]

cybertruck pulling failure

another cybertruck failure....how did this pass through a company that's made 4-5 quite good cars?

 

[Airborneguy]

The way the host is acting makes it suspect.

 

[Kharnynb]

The way the host is acting makes it suspect.

it's his thing, he demo-tests vehicles, dude's pretty funny and fair in his tests.

https://www.youtube.com/@whistlindiesel

 

[beren]

cybertruck pulling failure

another cybertruck failure....how did this pass through a company that's made 4-5 quite good cars?

Likely everything up to this point was in the works with the original owners of Tesla. My guess is the cyber truck is the first new vehicle designed solely under the current leader.

 

[Airborneguy]

Likely everything up to this point was in the works with the original owners of Tesla. My guess is the cyber truck is the first new vehicle designed solely under the current leader.

Musk took over Tesla in 2008.

The Model 3 project began in 2013.

The Y wasn’t announced until 2019 and was directly evolved from the 3.

The X was in 2012.

Only the S was developed under the original owners.

Edit: and the Roadster but that hasn’t been in production for a long time and wasn’t solely Tesla.

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

Only the S was developed under the original owners.

Best looking Tesla IMHO. I guess that explains it.

(BTW I don't even recall the Roadster, so I'm not trying to exclude/disparage it. But I don't see them on the road and I don't want to opine just based on pictures.)