As beers get bigger, you need more grain, and the result is a larger fraction of the total wort stays in the spent grain due to absorption. This is why lauter efficiency drops off as grain bills get larger. The effect can be calculated with high accuracy for batch sparging, and estimated with reasonable accuracy for fly sparging (by using many small batch sparges to simulate a fly sparge.) If you plot efficiency vs. the ratio of grain bill weight to pre-boil volume, you remove the batch size as a factor.
For batch sparging the lauter efficiency vs. grain bill ratio looks like this:
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The calculations are for the case of equal run-off volumes (unless that would force the mash to be thicker than 0.9 qt/lb), so mash thickness varies as required to maintain equal run-off volumes (when possible.)
For fly sparging, I simulate the fly sparge with 15 small batch sparges, and set specific starting mash thicknesses. As the grain bill gets larger, the amount of strike water increases to maintain the chosen mash thickness, and the amount of sparge water decreases. Here is what lauter efficiency variation looks for fly sparging:
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This chart shows that lauter efficiency goes up across the board as the mash gets thicker, due to allowing more water for sparging. The lines terminate at the right when the strike water required to maintain target mash thickness would cause the pre-boil volume to be exceeded (which would also mean 0 sparge water.)
The curve shapes a bit different for batch sparging vs. fly sparging, but the decrease in lauter efficiency with increasing grain bill weight holds for both processes.
You can gain back some lauter efficiency by targeting a larger pre-boil volume, with the intention of boiling off the excess water to obtain the target batch size.
Another interesting chart is to plot lauter efficiency vs. OG. For the chart below, a fixed batch size (5.5 gal post-boil volume and 5.0 gal fermenter volume) was assumed, along with a constant boil-off volume (1.0 gal.) Note that lauter efficiency drops off faster with increasing OG than it does with increasing grain bill ratio. This is because the decreasing efficiency increases the amount of grain required, shifting you even further to the right on the grain bill ratio axis.
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Brew on