It's relative concentration, i.e. partial pressure, not absolute pressure, that matters. O2's partial pressure is higher outside, it wants to flow across the membrane, and vice versa with CO2.
As for the second question this may help, or not. Might just make your head hurt like mine trying to do the math. I've seen it done for us on other threads.
http://www.lowoxygenbrewing.com/brewing-methods/beer-serving-oxygen-ingress/
What I know is it happens fast enough to perceptibly stale the beer in a vinyl line in the short time between pours even in a session, and the rest of the keg soon after. Switching to a good barrier tubing was enlightening. A point that might escape many in all of this is that your gas line matters too. Pressure in your gas cylinder can remain unchanged, but if the line attached is gas permeable, the contents will be inexorably moving toward having the same composition as the outside air.