Funny things you've overheard about beer

[GrogNerd]

What are the odds that this thread will be derailed again?

greater than even

 

[moscoeb]

What are the odds that this thread will be derailed again?

6/4 chances. So is that 100% or not? I'm confused again, dammit!

 

[Ridire]

60 percent of the time, it works every time.

 

[CreamyGoodness]

Im 100% 50/50 on the matter.

 

[WesleyS]

60 percent of the time, it works every time.

I'm gonna be honest with you. That smells like pure gasoline.

 

[woozy]

let's say you get a cookie every time you make a basket, you're a crappy basketball player because your odds of making a basket are 1 in 4 and we are giving you 6 shots

odds are GREATER THAN EVEN that you'll get 1 cookie

definitely how it works

so the odds aren't the chances of each shot, it's that you're going to make at least one basket, given 6 shots

1 in 1 odds means 100% certainty. It *has* to happen. Even odds, 50%, as likely as not is 1 in 2.

Yes, the odds *are* better than 50% that you will get a cookie. The odds are actually 82% that you will get a cookie. That is your odds are actually 8 in 10 which is pretty damned high. But it is *not* 100% it is not 1-1. And it is certainly not "greater than 1-1" which would mean better than 100% which isn't possible.

(Actually the odds of getting a cookie are exactly 2367 in 4096 or 82.2021484375%)

 

[woozy]

Damn thing was, the free drink wouldn't have been a beer.

 

[GrogNerd]

1 TO 1 (50%) is not 1 IN 1 (100%)
2 to 1 (66.66666666%) is not 1 in 2 (50%)
3 to 1 (75%) is not 1 in 3 (66.666666666%)

no, you can't have 3 in 1, but you CAN HAVE 3 to 1

you can have greater than 1 TO 1 odds, but not more than 1 IN 1. there's a difference

1 chance heads TO 1 chance tails, each has 1 to 1 or even odds, 50% chance.

 

[cageybee]

talking about "damning with faint praise", I gave a bottle of my first brew (English brown) to a coworker....and he came back a week later and said "I tasted your beer and it was good". I assume the sink "tasted" some of it too. I fear that the recent tv commercial showing the dude with sausages and kraut in his carboys isn't setting the stage for acceptance.

 

[Mojzis]

I hate that damn commercial.

 

[CreamyGoodness]

1 TO 1 (50%) is not 1 IN 1 (100%)
2 to 1 (66.66666666%) is not 1 in 2 (50%)
3 to 1 (75%) is not 1 in 3 (66.666666666%)

yes, you can't have 3 in 1, but you CAN HAVE 3 to 1

you can have greater than 1 TO 1 odds, but not more than 1 IN 1. there's a difference

1 chance heads TO 1 chance tails, each has 1 to 1 or even odds, 50% chance.

.

 

[GrogNerd]

1 in 1 odds means 100% certainty. It *has* to happen. Even odds, 50%, as likely as not is 1 in 2.

Yes, the odds *are* better than 50% that you will get a cookie. The odds are actually 82% that you will get a cookie. That is your odds are actually 8 in 10 which is pretty damned high. But it is *not* 100% it is not 1-1. And it is certainly not "greater than 1-1" which would mean better than 100% which isn't possible.

(Actually the odds of getting a cookie are exactly 2367 in 4096 or 82.2021484375%)

WHAT I AM SAYING

>50% is greater than even
82% is greater than 1 to 1, 50%

8 in 10 is 4 to 1, get it?

 

[xtian116]

WHAT I AM SAYING

>50% is greater than even
82% is greater than 1 to 1, 50% odds.

8 in 10 is 4 to 1, get it?

There's a 1 in 1 chance that you lost me 3 beers ago!

 

[HomebrewNate]

First off, I admit I was once the ****** that went to the Budweiser factory and did tastings of their most common beers. I remember pairing Bud Light with cheeses and thinking that Bud Light Lime (It hadn't even been released yet) was "Amazing!".

With that said... on more than one occasion I have witnessed a person walk into a brewery and ask "What do you have that's similar to Bud Light?". In one such occasion, the bartender actually pointed to the faucet while stating it was the closest things. Cheers to him, haha.

 

[CreamyGoodness]

First off, I admit I was once the ****** that went to the Budweiser factory and did tastings of their most common beers. I remember pairing Bud Light with cheeses and thinking that Bud Light Lime (It hadn't even been released yet) was "Amazing!".

With that said... on more than one occasion I have witnessed a person walk into a brewery and ask "What do you have that's similar to Bud Light?". In one such occasion, the bartender actually pointed to the faucet while stating it was the closest things. Cheers to him, haha.

That's actually... horrendous ********* behavior, honestly.

 

[GrogNerd]

There's a 1 in 1 chance that you lost me 3 beers ago!

there's a greater than 1 in 1 chance that losing you is no loss

 

[woozy]

Arrgh.

I know I should quit.

Consider it with 2 tickets. The odds of a drink with 1 tickets is 1 in 4. So one would think the odds with 2 tickets is 2 in 4 or 1 in 2; even money.

But it isn't. You have a 1 - 4 chance of winning on the first ticket and a 1 - 4 chance of winning on the second ticket. But these two *aren't* completely separate events (you could win a drink on both tickets) so you can't add them together as though the were separate. The result will be slightly *less* then 2 in 4.

This error is compounded with 6 tries. The answer isn't 1-4 added 6 times to get "3 out of 2" or 150% odds. You have to remove the multiple drinks which have been included more than once. The actual answer comes out to 82%.

The best way to do it is to figure out the odds of *not* winning every single time and subtract from 1.

The odds of *not* winning a drink with 1 ticket is 3/4.
The odds of *not* winning a drink with 2 tickets is 3/4* 3/4 = 9/16
The odds of *not* winning a drink with 3 tickets is 27/64.
The odds of *not* winning a drink with 4 tickets is 81/256. (It *is* possible!)
The odds of *not* winning a drink with 6 tickets is 729/4096. (Unlikely but possible.)

 

[GrogNerd]

not saying your chances ever get above 100%

saying that your ODDS can get over EVEN, because EVEN ODDS are 50%

8 shots made out of 10 attempts is 8 IN 10, but it's 8 made TO 2 miss, or 4 to 1, 80%
1 shot made out of 2 attempts is 1 IN 2, but it's 1 made TO 1 miss, or 1 to 1. even... 50%

shooting 50%, your CHANCES are 1 IN 2, your ODDS are 1 TO 1

 

[CreamyGoodness]

People say really funny things about beer.

 

[woozy]

GrogNerd. My apologies for saying "odds" when I should have said "probability".

Yes, 1 *to* 1 is the same thing as 1 *in* 2.

But my ticket wasn't giving odds. It was giving probabilities.

Probability with 1 ticket: 1 in 4. (Odds: 1 to 3)
Claimed probability with 2 tickets: 1 in 2. (Odds: 1 to 1)

This is *WRONG*!!! The actual probability is 7 in 16. (Odds: 7 to 9)

Then it gave the preposterous probabiltiy with 6 tickets as: More than 1 in 1 (Odds: Better than certain.)

In actuality the actual probabilty is 4-5 (Odds: 4 to 1) [Actually 3,267 in 4,096 and 3,267 to 729].

There. Does that clarify?

Whether probability or odds, you can't add them. If flipping heads is 1 in 2 (50%), then one could incorrectly conclude flipping the coin twice for a head would be 2 in 2 (100%). Obviously wrong. But if the odds are 1 to 1, one could incorrectly conclude flipping for one coin would be 2 to 1 (66%). Not so obviously wrong.

(The actual probability is 3 in 4 or in odds 3 to 1. (HH, HT, TH vs. TT))

 

[gcdowd]

Funny beer comments please?

 

[day_trippr]

What was the topic?

I forget...

Cheers!

 

[WesleyS]

People say really funny things about beer.

Not in this thread they don't.
So far this thread has been about tipping waitstaff, economics, and the mathematics of odds. If I missed anything I apologize.

 

[GrogNerd]

GrogNerd. My apologies for saying "odds" when I should have said "probability".

Yes, 1 *to* 1 is the same thing as 1 *in* 2.

But my ticket wasn't giving odds. It was giving probabilities.

Probability with 1 ticket: 1 in 4. (Odds: 1 to 3)
Claimed probability with 2 tickets: 1 in 2. (Odds: 1 to 1)

This is *WRONG*!!! The actual probability is 7 in 16. (Odds: 7 to 9)

Then it gave the preposterous probabiltiy with 6 tickets as: More than 1 in 1 (Odds: Better than certain.)

In actuality the actual probabilty is 4-5 (Odds: 4 to 1) [Actually 3,267 in 4,096 and 3,267 to 729].

There. Does that clarify?

Whether probability or odds, you can't add them. If flipping heads is 1 in 2 (50%), then one could incorrectly conclude flipping the coin twice for a head would be 2 in 2 (100%). Obviously wrong. But if the odds are 1 to 1, one could incorrectly conclude flipping for one coin would be 2 to 1 (66%). Not so obviously wrong.

(The actual probability is 3 in 4 or in odds 3 to 1. (HH, HT, TH vs. TT))

fair enough... but then the chances of winning leave the realm of statistics and enters the world of calculus and limits ->100%, but never quite getting there

got it

 

[GrogNerd]

we now return you to your regularly scheduled beer snobbery

taking the BigHair out to our favorite Mexican restaurant where I will have to explain to the server that no, I do not want a ice cold frosted mug for my SNPA

 

[bergen69]

Not in this thread they don't.
So far this thread has been about tipping waitstaff, economics, and the mathematics of odds. If I missed anything I apologize.

I think it went to guitars for a bit. It never goes to the most important subject...Ginger or Mary Ann?

 

[Ridire]

I think it went to guitars for a bit. It never goes to the most important subject...Ginger or Mary Ann?

Most one sided debate ever. I'd say 90% of people prefer Mary Ann.

 

[GrogNerd]

Most one sided debate ever. I'd say 90% of people prefer Mary Ann.

you are so wrong

Mrs. Howell

 

[woozy]

>>fair enough... but then with # of tickets over 4, the probabilities become chances of winning more than once

That's not what they were claiming.

And actually you can win more than once with only *two* tickets.

The bottom line is they were adding their probabilities. Which you can't do.

(Although if the probabilities are small the error is minimal. The odds of winning a 1 in a million shot with two shots is actually 1.999999 in a million rather than two in a million but the error is small. The degree of error is proportional to probabilty). The error is small at first but compounds quickly. The probability of winning a 1 in a million shot with six tickets is 1 - (999999/100000)^6 which is, like a millionth and six thousanths of a millionth less than 6 in a million. So basically 5.999998.... in a million. So you might as well add.

But consider 1 in 100 probabilities. The ticket would have claimed 6 in 100 with 6 tickets, but in actuality is would be 1 - (99/100)^6 or 5.85 in 100. Close but inaccurate enough for lawsuit? Basically the probability is 1/100 so the error is a factor of 1 percent.

With 1/4 the error is a factor of 25% which compounded six times is outside all margin of error.

1 ticket is 1 in 4. Fine.
But 2 tickets is 7/16 and not 2 in 4. (12.25% error)
3 tickets is 37/64 and not 3 in 4. (A 28% error)
4 tickets is 175/256 and not 100%. (A 32% error)
4 tickets is 3,267/4,096 and not 150% (A 68% error!!! which is utterly unforgivable as the answer in absurdly more than 100%)

 

[woozy]

Hah!

The professor .... What?

Hmmm, not a dumb thing about beer but a friend keeps claiming that I shouldn't call Ginger Beer non-alcoholic as it's carbonated with yeast and therefore...

One of these days I think I'll try to measure the alcohol content of my ginger beer but I imagine that'll be beyond the margin of error with my hydrometer.

Okay, that *wasn't* a dumb comment about beer, but I *do* feel a little guilty for the probability talk (but not guilty enough to not respond) so I figured I should make an effort to get back on subject...

(... but the Simpson's quote was funny, wasn't it? Love that episode! One of my favs.)