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That's true. It's a tough loss to lose by that little. But it's also a tough loss to have the second highest score in the league and lose, so if you had played any other team that week you'd win. I had the second lowest score in the league, so if i would have played almost any other team, I would have lost by more.
 
Fun season so far. I hate the NFL.com app :D but otherwise I dig this league. It's also been fun trying to find decent RBs all season, since I had a live draft involving much beer going on same time as this one so computer ended up autodrafting half my picks, and made sure to draft me Chubb and then absolute garbage for RB. I did get the top ranked DEF and K though. I may not win the league but I will definitely win most transactions

@betarhoalphadelta loved the write-up. Well done
 
VirginiaHops1 said:
Fun season so far. I hate the NFL.com app :D but otherwise I dig this league. It's also been fun trying to find decent RBs all season, since I had a live draft involving much beer going on same time as this one so computer ended up autodrafting half my picks, and made sure to draft me Chubb and then absolute garbage for RB. I did get the top ranked DEF and K though. I may not win the league but I will definitely win most transactions

@betarhoalphadelta loved the write-up. Well done
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Thanks!

Yeah, NFL.com isn't my favorite platform, but I've used worse lol. The one we use for the 20-team league is insanely configurable (which is why they use it I'm sure), but it's not easy to use and the mobile app is utter trash. NFL.com is a LOT better for a league that doesn't need tons of customization...

I plan to do another write-up after this week since we'll be at 10 weeks and things are really shaping up. We've got 7 teams within two games of first place, and I hope to make that even tighter if I can take down Prestige Worldwide this week lol.

From there we're probably close enough to the playoffs that I'll try to give weekly updates regarding who is a lock for the playoffs, where the seeding is headed, etc.
 
Okay, we're 10 weeks down. I'm not going to belabor this update too heavily, because there is a HUGE squishy middle of the league right now that is fighting for playoff spots, and things could fall a bunch of ways. And this is a very competitive league--despite record, no team IMHO is in a clear "dominant" position. If you look at the points scored metric, the difference between #1 and #7 is 15 points, or 1.5 points per week. Razor thin margin.

So here's where we stand after 10 weeks.

Locks for the playoffs:

None. I consider a team a "lock" if it's mathematically impossible for them to be excluded. Prestige Worldwide (8-2) is a team that I believe 99.9% will make the playoffs, but when I look at the number of teams that mathematically could reach 9+ wins or could reach 8-6 and potentially win tiebreakers if Prestige goes 0-4 from here on out? Yeah, I haven't run (and won't) all the tiebreaker scenarios and call that team a lock. IMHO another win gets there though.

Sitting pretty:

We have three teams at 8 or 7 wins. Prestige Worldwide (8-2), Bar Flies (7-3), and Bones are their Money (7-3) are all in very good shape. While I said above that I don't consider 8-6 a lock, I honestly believe that any 8-6 team will make the playoffs. All three of these teams are in that "top 7" regarding points scored on the season, so the idea that any of them won't get at least one more win in the next four weeks is unlikely.

The squishy middle:

Four teams here. Milwaukee Muggers (6-4), Mr IPA and Mrs Blonde (5-5), Beer is my Patronus (5-5), and Dawg Pound (5-5) are all in that situation where the playoffs are not some giant lift to reach but bad luck could knock out every single one. IMHO you need 7 wins to have a chance, 8 wins to feel safe. That's 2-2 over the next four for Milwaukee, and 3-1 for the others. The first three of this group are within that top 7 of points scored, and if you consider that a good proxy for team strength over 10 weeks, suggests that they have rosters that should be well-positioned. Dawg Pound sits at #8 in points scored, but the gap between #7 and #8 is 52.4 points, or 5.2 points per week. Dawg Pound faces two future opponents with more points scored, and two with fewer points scored, so whether the good weeks can be strung together at the right time will mean a lot.

The long shots:

We have 2 teams at 4-6. Beer with Mahomeys and Hop To It. If you assume 3 wins is the minimum to even have a chance at a tiebreaker, and 4 wins is what it takes to feel comfortable, that means both teams have 3-1 at a minimum over the next 4 games and 4-0 as the goal. Unfortunately, these teams are #10 and #11 in points scored which, well, isn't good. Both are very long shots to get to the postseason at this point.

[Short stack] Chip and a Chair:

We have three teams at 3-7. Finger Lakes Fury, Big Gulps, and Fill My Kupp. I'm not going to call them mathematically eliminated, because if they go 4-0 from here on out, and maybe the tiebreakers fall their way, 7-7 might get you in. That said, if you pay attention to points scored, I consider Finger Lakes Fury the only team in this group that has a chance. 3rd in points scored, but tied for 10th in W-L record. That's just bad fantasy football luck. The other two are #9 and #12 in points scored, which suggests their rosters aren't going to magically start dominating over the next 4 weeks.

Conclusion:

The fun thing is that after 10 weeks, I can honestly say that not a single team is a lock for, or is mathematically eliminated from, the playoffs. That's probably not going to be true after next week, but it's been competitive so far.

Now we're getting to the point where teams should be considering not only making the playoffs, but playoff seeding. Two teams will earn first-round playoff byes. That's an important advantage. It's still WAY too early to start prognosticating, but I know we're all thinking on it...

Getting interesting now, fellas!
 
Thanks for the writeup @betarhoalphadelta but why did you warn everyone I’m the silent one to watch out for? 😝 I’m the new guy with the first 2/3’s of the season with bad luck but I’m coming for the championship. Watch out folks, I’m running the table from here on out. 👍🏽
 
pshankstar said:
Thanks for the writeup @betarhoalphadelta but why did you warn everyone I’m the silent one to watch out for? 😝 I’m the new guy with the first 2/3’s of the season with bad luck but I’m coming for the championship. Watch out folks, I’m running the table from here on out. 👍🏽
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If you pull it off, you'll certainly have earned it. 3 of your next 4 are against the top half of the league.

And on that stretch, gotta get through me first. Good luck with that, rookie! 😂
 
betarhoalphadelta said:
If you pull it off, you'll certainly have earned it. 3 of your next 4 are against the top half of the league.

And on that stretch, gotta get through me first. Good luck with that, rookie! 😂
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Yep. Burrow was at the tail end of the list of QBs I wanted (Mahomes/Herbert/Hurts/Allen), but when I got him at the tail end of the 4th I thought it was an excellent value. Then Cousins kept falling to the point where I couldn't pass him up, especially knowing that Burrow was entering the season with the calf injury. He lit it up for a few weeks and right about the time his leg fell off, Burrow was starting to come into what I thought he was when I drafted him... Then his hand fell off... So now I got Uncle Rico...

Oh well. Just gonna have to tell the rest of the squad to step up.
 
pshankstar said:
I’m here to start my run to make the playoffs this year. If I don’t I’ll be disruptive as hell in the league. 🤣
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Good win this week.

I made a stupid last-second roster swap, thinking QJ was going to have a significant role with the Chargers, and that Ridley had just busted too many times and was worried I needed QJ's upside after the Burrow injury. Well, that didn't work out.

But at least I can walk away knowing that if I had left Ridley in, I still would have lost... Albeit by 1 point instead of 29.
 
betarhoalphadelta said:
Good win this week.

I made a stupid last-second roster swap, thinking QJ was going to have a significant role with the Chargers, and that Ridley had just busted too many times and was worried I needed QJ's upside after the Burrow injury. Well, that didn't work out.

But at least I can walk away knowing that if I had left Ridley in, I still would have lost... Albeit by 1 point instead of 29.
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I feel ya, I sat Ridley in another league this week b/c he’s been Mr. Unreliable. Who knew Burrow was going down like that. There’s a lot of questions why he wasn’t on the injury report before the game. Would that have changed things for you? Probably not, but maybe…
 
pshankstar said:
Who knew Burrow was going down like that. There’s a lot of questions why he wasn’t on the injury report before the game. Would that have changed things for you? Probably not, but maybe…
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Nah. Didn't have any other options, so if they said Burrow was active, he would be in the lineup. If I still had a healthy Cousins, I might have swapped in Cousins just for the matchup, and DEFINITELY if I'd known that Burrow was coming in dinged on his throwing hand. But without other options, ride or die, right?
 
Week 11 complete. So let's see what we've got!

Week 11 Recap:
  • Finger Lakes Fury (4-7) def Mr IPA and Mrs Blonde (5-6), 144.70 to 115.64: Fury keeps the post-season dream alive while IPA/Blonde watches their second QB go down with a season-ending injury. The outcome was not close, but as described above it was one late starting roster move away from being VERY tight.
  • Prestige Worldwide (9-2) def fill my Kupp (3-8) 165.50 to 101.06: Prestige has punched their ticket to the playoffs (more on that later) with a dominating win. I haven't run ALL the numbers, but I suspect that fill my Kupp is now mathematically eliminated. If not mathematically, they're functionally eliminated b/c I think the scenarios where a 6-8 team gets in are few and far between, and as the lowest scoring team in the league facing the top half in the next three matchups, getting 3 more wins is unlikely.
  • Bar Flies - Chorgey (8-3) def Milwaukee Muggers (6-5), 190.50 to 128.04: 190 points! Wow... I went to check thinking it was the highest point total by any team all year, but it's narrowly second. But still--what a week! Both of these teams are fully in the playoff hunt but I think this win gets Bar Flies over the hump.
  • Beer With Mahomeys (5-6) def Dawg Pound (5-6), 130.48 to 122.98: A rough one, as Dawg was leading and done after the second set of games Sunday while watching and knowing Mahomeys had Mahomes and Butker both going on Monday night. Despite relatively pedestrian days from both, it was enough to surpass the lead and equal these two right in the "work to do" section of the playoff hunt.
  • Big Gulps (4-7) def Beer is My Patronus (5-6), 125.10 to 113.86: Another tight one coming down to Monday night, with Patronus starting AJB and Rashee Rice vs Gulps with Jalen Hurts. This was the type that looked like a good matchup for Patronus, because any TD thrown by Hurts to AJB effectively neutralizes Hurts' points. But it wasn't to be, as Hurts threw one TD to Devonta Smith and ran for two himself, and Gulps kept long shot playoff dreams alive and put Patronus into the "work to do" group.
  • Bones Are Their Money (8-3) def Hop To It (4-7), 136.96 to 105.60: Bones took an early lead and left Hop To It hoping for a miracle performance by the Philly defense on Monday to have any chance of taking Bones down. It was not meant to be, and Bones joins Bar Flies in the "I think they're in" group while Hop To It drops to the "long shot" category.

Playoff Picture:

Locks: As mentioned, I don't call someone a lock until it's mathematically certain. Prestige Worldwide (9-2) is there. It's mathematically impossible at this point to miss the playoffs. Congrats!

Almost Locks: Bones Are Their Money (8-3) and Bar Flies - Chorgey (8-3) are both pretty much in. However, there's a narrow mathematical chance that 7 teams can finish at 8-3 or better, and I'm not going to figure out tiebreakers. At least one of them would be guaranteed though despite tiebreakers. Of course, that presumes neither team wins another game AND all the teams below play out perfectly... So these teams can rest easy knowing they're pretty much in. Bar Flies is interesting here as having gotten to 8-3 with Justin Jefferson on IR for a lot of weeks now, and his return sets that team up well going forward.

Work To Do: 5 teams here. Milwaukee Muggers (6-5) has the narrow edge right now with a one game lead over the trailing pack. Patronus (5-6), Mahomeys (5-6), IPA/Blonde (5-6) and Dawg are still in the hunt. I think 8-6 is going to be a lock and 7-7 will come down to tiebreakers, so every team in this group is somewhat on the knife edge from here out. Surprisingly, there are very few games between these teams remaining, so it could go a LOT of directions from here without them knocking each other out.

Long Shots: Fury (4-7), Hop To It (4-7), and Gulps (4-7) are all in my opinion needing to win out from here to even sniff the tiebreaker. And like I said I'm not about to try to figure out all those permutations when we have no clue who they'd be breaking ties with. As mentioned last week, Fury has the strongest team on paper, being 3rd in points scored this year while the other two are 9th and 11th.

Basically Out: fill my Kupp (3-8) is basically out. I haven't run all the math, but as mentioned above the lowest-scoring team in the league would need to win three in a row, and then craziness above would have to happen, all to just barely sneak into a giant 6-8 tie if said craziness occurs. It's just not likely. And one more week, even with a win, is probable enough that we might look at the picture and it'll be mathematically certain.

This Week's Matchups:

  • Mr IPA and Mrs Blonde (5-6) vs Beer is my Patronus (5-6): I said above that there are few games between "work to do" teams, but this is one of them. It's a massive matchup for playoff contention. The winner of this game may not exactly feel certain about their playoff chances, but the loser of this game is going to be in must-win mode the final two weeks to get to 7-7 and hope for a friendly tiebreaker. On paper it looks very tight--Patronus is projected ~5 points above IPA/Blonde.
  • Bar Flies - Chorgey (8-3) vs fill my Kupp (3-8): The opposite of the above matchup, in that we've got an almost-lock vs the bottom of the league. And while the lineups don't look to be set, projection-wise it looks like Bar Flies will be projected well ahead.
  • Prestige Worldwide (9-2) vs Finger Lakes Fury (4-7): Fury looks to continue their miracle run against the top of the league, and the early roster looks suggest that they may even be favored in this one once lineups are set. Prestige is playing to lock up the #1 or #2 seed and a bye, while Fury is playing for their postseason life.
  • Milwaukee Muggers (6-5) vs Beer With Mahomeys (5-6): This is another of the "work to do" matchups, but slightly less do-or-die given that the Muggers have a one-game lead over the rest of the work to do crew. A win for Muggers helps greatly as one more win beyond that is likely a lock, and they face Bones the following week. For Mahomeys, every win is critical and a loss here has no room for error going forward an will likely rely on a tiebreaker if they reach 7-7 to get in.
  • Dawg Pound (5-6) vs Bones Are Their Money (8-3): Critical game for Dawg to avoid dropping to 5-7 and then being in must win mode for here on out. Bones is in the running for a top seed and a bye. On paper Bones looks a little stronger, and due to the schedule will likely start out well ahead with a lot of Thursday and early-slate Sunday players. Dawg is probably going to be sweating everything out on Sunday and even Monday night with Justin Fields not playing until MNF, with not a lot of Thursday/early Sunday players in the lineup.
  • Big Gulps (4-7) vs Hop To It (4-7): This matchup of the long shots is effectively a playoff elimination game, with the loser likely being out of it and the winner remaining a long shot. One of these teams stays alive.

Conclusion:

So with three games to play, we have at least half of the playoff field basically known and fighting for playoff seeding and byes., Effectively 6 additional teams are vying for the remaining three spots. Fury and all of the 5-6 teams are desperate for a win, and even Muggers at 6-5 has a much harder road with a loss.

All of this on a weird Thanksgiving weekend with three games on Thursday and a Friday game. Short weeks for every one of those 8 teams as none of them were on bye in week 11, and we all know crazy things happen on short weeks.

Now it's getting real, folks!
 
pshankstar said:
Could my streak continue by taking down the #1 team? 🤯
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Lookin' that way... Pretty sure Ty Chandler isn't going to outscore Mattison+42.08 lol...

Couple big games tonight.

  • IPA/Blonde (me) needs >3.7 out of TJ Hockenson to move to 6-5, otherwise Patronus moves to 6-5. The losing team moves into "must win" mode the remaining two weeks at 5-7.
  • Bar Flies is projected to join Prestige (assuming they lose) at 9-3, but it's not a done deal. Bar Flies holds a slight lead with Addison left to play vs MIN defense left to play for fill my Kupp. But it's close. Important for Bar Flies and their goal of getting a bye in the playoff first rounds.
  • Fury obviously with the big lead to stay alive for the postseason. Prestige losing helps those teams behind chasing the goal of a #1 or #2 seed though, which is important.
  • Dawg Pound also needing a win to get to 6-5 for the playoff chase. Down 15 with Justin Fields left to play vs Bones, who is finished.
The first one not caring about tonight's outcome is Muggers over Mahomeys. Muggers has a huge lead and two left to play, including the QB. That'll get them to 7-5 which is a big step toward the playoffs, leaving Mahomeys at 5-7 and in "must win" mode the next two weeks. The other is Big Gulps over Hop To It, which will keep Big Gulps in "must win" mode improving to 5-7, and probably be the nail in the coffin for Hop To It and their playoff hopes...
 
Alright, one more week down. Two to go and then the playoffs await.

Week 12 Recap:

  • Big Gulps (5-7) def Hop To It (4-8), 181.80 to 132.46: Hop To It jumped out to an early lead with a lot of players on Thursday, but then Big Gulps pulled away and had an unstressful night on Monday Night Football with it already in the bag. We'll get into the playoff picture below, but Big Gulps still has a path to a 7-7 tiebreaker and Hop To It is still technically alive for a deep long shot.
  • Dawg Pound (6-6) def Bones are their Money (8-4), 133.48 to 126.94: Dawg watched as Justin Fields overcame two lost fumbles and a game where the Bears won despite not scoring a touchdown to score 22 points and put them over the edge. This was a critical game for Dawg to get to 6-6 for the playoff race, while Bones is still right in the thick of the push for a top seed and playoff bye.
  • Milwaukee Muggers (7-5) def Beer with Mahomeys (5-7), 190.80 to 106.82: The Muggers, coming off a 190-point drubbing from Bar Flies last week, dropped their own 190 on Mahomeys to take this one easily. When 5 players NOT including your QB score over 20 points, and your defense even drops 18, it's a good darn day. Muggers are now guaranteed a tiebreaker at worst in the playoffs, while Mahomeys has some work to do.
  • Finger Lakes Fury (5-7) def Prestige Worldwide (9-3), 176.56 to 129.28: The Fury keep their playoff run alive, taking down the top team in the league, led by a massive 54-point outing from Josh Allen. I'm sure Prestige was really pulling for Justin Herbert to answer Allen in Sunday Night Football, but as usual, the Chargers didn't get it done. We'll talk about the math down below, but for now, Fury can guarantee a spot in a tiebreaker with two more wins, and Prestige is still in the catbird seat for a bye needing only one more win in the next two weeks.
  • fill my Kupp (4-8) def Bar Flies (8-4), 139.54 to 136.96: Talk about a nailbiter! I was watching MNF and saw that Kupp was down 0.10 points and saw Justin Fields with a lost fumble to the Minnesota defense, adding 3 points on the defense to gain a 2.90 point lead. Then the Bears got the ball back in the final minutes, only needing a FG to win, but I looked at the scoring and saw that a TD would erase 3 points from the Minnesota defense, which would have lost the matchup for Kupp. The Bears got deep into FG range, forced the Vikings to exhaust their time outs, and kicked the FG to win the game and for Kupp to win his matchup. Kupp still has a VERY long shot chance at getting into a tiebreaker, while Bar Flies is looking for a path to the #1 or #2 seed and that important bye week.
  • Mr IPA and Mrs Blonde (6-6) def Beer is my Patronus (5-7), 164.98 to 152.68: By the conclusion of the Sunday second slate of games, IPA/Blonde had a lead, knowing that Patronus still had Lamar Jackson to play in SNF, and then with the chance to answer with TJ Hockenson in MNF. Lamar Jackson had a relatively pedestrian outing at only 22 points, but that was enough to give a slight (3.7 point) lead to Patronus heading into MNF. Hockenson put up zero points in the first half, but started getting catches in the second half to give IPA/Blonde the lead, and then put the icing on the cake with a TD. This was a critically important game for both teams entering at 5-6 in the playoff race, and the win gives IPA/Blonde a little tiny bit of breathing room while Patronus has some work ahead.

The Playoff Picture:

Locks:

With this weekend's results, both Bar Flies and Bones failed to get to 9 wins, but they now join Prestige Worldwide as locks. No more than 5 teams can get to 8 wins, so all three teams are guaranteed a postseason. So now it comes down to the #1/#2 seed and who gets the bye week. Bar Flies and Bones face each other in week 14, so no more than 2 remaining teams can get to 10 wins. that means that one more win for Prestige will absolutely lock up a bye, and it's also guaranteed that at least one of Bar Flies/Bones will reach 9 wins. While Muggers is not yet even a lock for the playoffs, this also means that there's a CHANCE for Muggers to get into a tiebreaker for a bye week with 2 more wins, and Muggers is the only team with a mathematical chance to have a bye.

The middle scenarios:

I'm going to break this down by number of wins after the next two weeks.
  • 8 wins: As mentioned above, 8 wins is a playoff lock. I'm skipping 9 wins even though Muggers can get there, because anything past 8 only affects seeding. Only three teams have a path to 8(+) wins. Muggers (7-5), Dawg (6-6), and IPA/Blonde (6-6). However, Dawg and IPA/Blonde face each other in week 14, so only two of these three teams can actually get there. Interestingly, Big Gulps (5-7) plays heavily into this, facing Dawg this week and Muggers in week 14. Two wins by Big Gulps not only gets them into a tiebreaker at 7-7, but increases the likelihood that the tiebreaker will be for more than 1 playoff spot.
  • 7 wins: Because IPA/Blonde and Dawg face each other in week 14, the loser of that game can do no better than 7-7. This means that 7-7 is a guaranteed record to make a tiebreaker for the playoffs. This opens the door for Fury, Big Gulps, Patronus, and Mahomeys, who all sit today at 5-7. Technically only three of the four can get there, as Fury/Patronus face each other in week 14, so the loser of that matchup can do no better than 6-8. Every team in this group can be guaranteed a tiebreaker opportunity with two wins.
The Long-Shot 6 Win Scenario:

It's possible that someone needs to check my math on this... The Muggers are already at 7 wins. The winner of the matchup of IPA/Blonde and Dawg in week 14 will have 7 wins. However, if the loser of that matchup also loses this week, then the current top half of the standings has an opportunity that the 6th playoff spot comes down to a 6-8 tiebreaker, as long as none of the current 5-7 teams gets two more wins. And given the remaining schedule, that's mathematically possible.

Which means that while the scenario where either Kupp or Hop To It gets two more wins AND the final spot comes down to a 6-8 tiebreaker is ridiculously unlikely...

Ill Be Back Jim Carrey GIF


Yep. We're in week 13 and all 12 teams are still technically alive for the postseason.

Week 13 Preview:

Obviously this is a big week for pretty much everyone...
  • Big Gulps (5-7) vs Dawg Pound (6-6): Since the 6-8 tiebreaker is unlikely, I'm just going to call this a must-win for Big Gulps. So it's a big matchup. Dawg would guarantee a piece of a tiebreaker going into what is going to be a tough matchup for both teams next week, so this would be a big win for Dawg. Unfortunately Dawg is facing bye weeks from both Justin Fields and James Cook, which are certainly not coming at an opportune time.
  • Bones are their Money (8-4) vs Milwaukee Muggers (7-5): Slightly less implications here, as Bones is already a lock and playing for a seed/bye, and Muggers is already guaranteed tiebreaker at worse and only has to win one of the next two to lock for the playoffs. But this is fantasy football. Every win helps.
  • Beer is my Patronus (5-7) vs Prestige Worldwide (9-3): Bye week hell couldn't come at a worse time for Patronus, with Lamar Jackson, Jakobi Meyers, Khalil Shakir, and Daniel Carlson all sitting this week. Facing the top team in the league in a must-win scenario with a lot of key players inactive? Yeah, gonna be a big upset if Patronus can pull this one off...
  • Beer with Mahomeys (5-7) vs Bar Flies (8-4): Another bye week problem for Mahomeys, but not quite as bad as Patronus, with Saquon Barkley and Gabe Davis both on bye. But against Bar Flies, who dropped 190 points two weeks ago and is currently the highest-scoring team in the league, and has their starting roster intact bye-wise? Yeah, another uphill battle in a must-win scenario and it'll be another huge upset if Mahomeys can do it.
  • fill my Kupp (4-8) vs Finger Lakes Fury (5-7): Must win for both teams. For Kupp, a win keeps the long shot scenario alive. For Fury, assuming the long shot scenario doesn't happen and 7 is necessary, this is a must win. Fury has Josh Allen on bye, but happens to have Tua as his backup against the Commanders, so that shouldn't be a huge downgrade. And despite the similar records, we have the 2nd highest scoring team in the league going against the lowest-scoring team in the league. But it's fantasy football. Anything can happen--and often does.
  • Mr IPA and Mrs Blonde (6-6) vs Hop To It (4-8): Again, an absolute must win for Hop To It just to keep the long shot scenario alive. A win for IPA/Blonde would get to 7, guaranteeing a tiebreaker at worst ahead of a tough matchup against Dawg next week. IPA/Blonde is dealing with bye weeks for Davante Adams and TJ Hockenson, while Hop To It is going to have to decide who to use to fill the flex spot with OBJ on bye.
Good luck to all this week! (Except Hop To It, of course.)
 
Bad news for Patronus, as in addition to bye week hell, Jonathan Taylor is now undergoing thumb surgery and expected to be out 2-3 weeks.

Sorry, brother, that's just some terrible luck in general, but specifically to happen when everyone else is on bye and you need a win :(
 
Wow, depending on how tonight’s game goes. I could have the highest scoring team this week! 😬
Watch out guys, I’m making my run to win the league this year. 😉
 
pshankstar said:
Wow, depending on how tonight’s game goes. I could have the highest scoring team this week! 😬
Watch out guys, I’m making my run to win the league this year. 😉
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Yep, looks like you're on a serious heater.

So far Prestige has already beaten Patronus, and Bar Flies has already defeated Mahomeys, which limits the number of teams who can get to seven wins as the losing franchise in both matchups will fall to 5-8.

You (Fury) have "beaten" Kupp (i.e. Boyd isn't going to score negative 42 so you're good).

Remaining games up in the air:
  • Muggers sitting a point ahead of Bones, but with one left to play while Bones has two. All three left to play are on Cincinnati, so any TD that Higgins gets doesn't go to Mixon/Chase, and vice versa. So it could go either way as a big (multi-TD) Higgins game probably limits Mixon and Chase both having a big game.
  • Dawg down against Big Gulps, with three players left to go while Big Gulps is done. Dawg isn't projected to win, but the projections are only 7 points off Big Gulps current score, so big games from Etienne, Jones, and Kirk could flip that. The only problem is all three players are on Jacksonville, so each one's success to an extent cannibalizes points from the other two.
  • IPA/Blonde (me) with a big lead over Hop To It and projected to win by a fairly large margin. Feeling confident.
 
gromitdj said:
Stupid 49'ers...
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What's interesting is that you (Mahomeys) and all of the other 5-7 teams (Fury, Patronus, Big Gulps) have to be rooting for Big Gulps to win tonight. Big Gulps winning allows for the 6-8 playoff tiebreaker scenario to remain alive.

And Fury has to root for Big Gulps in an additional way. If IPA/Blonde wins (7-6) and Dawg wins (7-6), the winner of our matchup next week will be 8-6 and the loser will be 7-7. The tiebreaker in this league is H2H record. Both IPA/Blonde and Dawg will be 1-0 H2H against Fury from his bad stretch earlier in the season. So if both IPA/Blonde and Dawg win, Fury is eliminated at 6-7 along with all of the teams that drop to 5-8 tonight. The only way that Fury gets in at 7-7 is if one of IPA/Blonde and one of Dawg finish 8-6 and 6-8. And based on projections, it's unlikely IPA/Blonde finishes 6-8.
 
Where I'm getting confused is whether I have a rooting interest in Dawg vs Big Gulps tonight.

If I win tonight:
  • A Dawg win puts both of us at 7-6. The winner of our H2H matchup next week goes to the playoffs automatically at 8-6 and the loser, at worst, has a tie at 7-7 with Fury. But since both Dawg and I have H2H over Fury, we would both be in and Fury out even at 7-7.
  • A Dawg loss puts me at 7-6 and Dawg at 6-7. A win for me next week is great, but a loss gets tricky. If Dawg beat me next week, we'd both be 7-7. Assuming Fury loses next week, it doesn't matter and Dawg and I are both in the playoffs. But if Fury wins, the tiebreaker gets harder. Dawg is one of the teams I play twice in the regular season, and he's already 1-0 against me. A win next week would make him 2-0 against me. Bring in Fury, and you have to have a 3-way tiebreaker. Dawg would be 3-0 against me/Fury. I would be 1-2 against Dawg/Fury. And Fury would be 0-2 against Dawg/me. My understanding of most tiebreakers is that this would grant the 5 seed to Dawg and then we'd rerun the H2H tiebreaker with him removed, so it was ONLY Fury and I. Since I'm 1-0 against Fury, I would win that tiebreaker and get the 6 seed.
So if I win tonight, I don't think it matters what happens to Dawg. I'm in.

But if I lose tonight:
  • Losing tonight and losing to Dawg next weeks puts me at 6-8. Not even going to run tiebreakers on that. And if Fury wins next week, I'd be mathematically eliminated anyway.
  • Losing tonight and beating Dawg if he wins tonight: Similar to the second scenario above. We'll both be 7-7. If Fury loses next week, Dawg and I are in. If Fury wins next week, we have a 3-way tiebreaker. I'd be 2-1 against Dawg/Fury, Dawg would be 2-1 against Fury/me, and Fury would be 0-2 against Dawg/me. Which should eliminate Fury, and we'd rerun the tiebreaker. But then Dawg and I would be 1-1 H2H, so we need to go farther. I *think* the next tiebreaker would be points scored where I have an advantage, so I think I'd be 5 seed and Dawg 6 seed.
  • Losing tonight and beating Dawg if he loses tonight: Well that would make me 7-7 and Dawg 6-8. Which would get me into the playoffs. Fury getting a win to also be 7-7 would get Fury into the playoffs. If Fury lost, there would be a crazy 6-8 tie for the final playoff spot, and I'm not running tiebreakers on that.
So if I lose tonight but win H2H against Dawg next week, I should be in.

So I don't think I have a rooting interest in the Big Gulps / Dawg Pound matchup tonight. I think all that matters to me is that I preserve my 70-point lead with Ridley/McManus over Hop To It who is rolling out Lawrence/McPherson tonight. Essentially if Trevor Lawrence has a really big night tonight, I just really need to hope that at least some of it is passes to Ridley.
 
All I know is my run is coming too late to control my own destiny but it sure throws a wrench into things if anything. A small wrench but it keeps things interesting.
 
pshankstar said:
All I know is my run is coming too late to control my own destiny but it sure throws a wrench into things if anything. A small wrench but it keeps things interesting.
Click to expand...

Scratch everything I wrote about tiebreakers. I didn't realize the Muggers could also cause this to be a potential four-way tie at 7-7... I haven't looked at how that plays out...

Depending on the results tonight, I'll try to address that in tomorrow's overview.
 
Mixon stopped me from clinching a playoff spot in this league AND killed my narrow shot at the playoffs in my other league. Punk.
 
betarhoalphadelta said:
Think you're good to go. You're 3-0 against Dawg, IPA/Blonde, and Fury. You win any tiebreakers at 7-7 that you'll face.
Click to expand...
Didn’t realize that but (of course) you’re right. And with a quick check, the playoff field is set with matchups TBD. The big one this week is bones and barflies playing for the bye.
 
LOl... So we gotta start this week with 1 thing...

Bones just scored 199.88 points in a single week. To which I gotta say...

friday-chris-tucker.gif


Well done! Highest point total of the year. We don't have any league prizes to give for that, Bones, but if we ever meet in person, I'll buy ya a beer. Impressive!

Week 13 Results

  • Prestige Worldwide (10-3) def Beer is my Patronus (5-8), 153.28 to 135.98: This one was settled by the end of Sunday night, as neither team had anyone going Monday. Prestige was led by Tyreek Hill, Nico Collins, and Puka Nacua all having great games, while Patronus had massive bye and injury problems, resulting in zeroes on the board from Royce Freeman and Robert Woods, who wouldn't have been in the starting lineup most week. I'll cover the playoff outcomes below, but we already knew Prestige was in, and Patronus might still be on life support for a way in.
  • Bones are their Money (9-4) def Milwaukee Muggers (7-6), 199.88 to 143.04: Muggers just flat out ran into a buzzsaw. As mentioned, this one saw Muggers holding a 1 point lead into MNF, but up against Ja'Maar Chase and Joe Mixon, with only Tee Higgins remaining for Muggers. Chase and Mixon combined for almost 75 points, to turn this into a rout. Bones was already safe for the playoffs, while we'll discuss the Muggers' potential playoff scenarios below.
  • Bar Flies (9-4) def Beer with Mahomeys (5-8), 155.76 to 139.80: This was also settled by Sunday night. Mahomeys got massive scores out of DK Metcalf, the Chargers DST, and James Conner, but it wasn't enough. Bar Flies didn't get points where I'd expect them (Cowboys DST, Jahmyr Gibbs), but got a huge game from Brock Purdy (which was really all Deebo, but Brock gave him the ball), and strong performances from Devonta Smith, Rachaad White, Jake Ferguson, Zach Charbonnet, and even the kicker, Brandon Aubrey, to take this one down. A true team effort. Bar Flies was already safe for the playoffs, and Mahomeys will be on life support from here.
  • Mr IPA and Mrs Blonde (7-6) def Hop To It (4-9), 139.62 to 102.12: Both teams had some bye weeks from key players, and neither team had a very impressive score overall, but IPA/Blonde was sitting on a commanding 70-point lead going into MNF. Hop To It had Trevor Lawrence and Evan McPherson remaining, while IPA/Blonde had Calvin Ridley and Brandon McManus. It was going to be nearly impossible for Hop to come back and win this, but Trevor Lawrence was knocked out of the game with a potentially devastating ankle injury, and that's all she wrote. IPA/Blonde's playoff options will be covered below, but this is the end of the line for Hop To It. Hop is now eliminated from the playoff race at 4-8.
  • Finger Lakes Fury (6-7) def fill my Kupp (4-9), 167.30 to 118.30: And the Fury Train keeps on rollin'. Fury had a massive lead going into MNF with one player left to go and none playing on Kupp's roster, so this was a foregone conclusion at that point. Big days for Tua, Derrick Henry, Michael Pittman and Christian Watson powered the Fury over Kupp. We'll cover the potential playoff scenarios for Fury below, but this is also the end of the road for Kupp, who is now eliminated from the playoffs at 4-8.
  • Big Gulps (5-7) def Dawg Pound (6-7), 130.12 to 119.98: I suspect this was a somewhat stressful Monday Night for both teams. Big Gulps was done, with relatively even scoring across the roster behind leaders Jalen Hurts, Kyren Williams, and DeAndre Hopkins. Dawg was down by a substantial amount, but had Travis Etienne, Zay Jones, and Christian Kirk all going on Monday night. Dawg was projected a mere 7 points behind Big Gulps going into MNF. Etienne and Jones held up their end of the bargain, scoring over 30 combined, but Christian Kirk was lost to injury in the first quarter with only 3.6 points and did not return. That was enough, and Big Gulps got the win to stay on life support for the playoffs, while Dawg's road got a little harder.
Playoff Picture

First round bye locked up

Prestige Worldwide (10-3) has now secured either the #1 or #2 seed and a first round bye. If Prestige wins this week, it will automatically be the #1 seed. If Prestige loses this week, the outcome will be decided by...

Playing for a first-round bye

Bar Flies (9-4) and Bones are their Money (9-4) face each other this week. The winner of the matchup will have either the #1 or #2 seed and a first round bye. If Prestige wins, the winner is automatically #2. If Prestige loses, however, it depends on who wins. Bones beat Prestige H2H, while Prestige beat Bar Flies H2H, so the best Bar Flies can do with a win is the #2 seed. Bones could take the #1 seed with a win and a Prestige loss.

The loser of this matchup is locked into the #3 seed, with a 2-game advantage over 4th place and one game to play.

The 7 (and 8) win outcomes

We have five teams who can finish at 7 wins or better. The Muggers (7-6) and IPA/Blonde (7-6) can advance to 8 wins and a lock with a win. Big Gulps (6-7), Dawg (6-7) and Fury (6-7) can get into the playoffs or a potential tiebreaker scenario with a win. IPA/Blonde and Dawg match up this week, so a Dawg win not only helps Dawg but it prevents IPA/Blonde from reaching 8 wins. Muggers faces Big Gulps this week, so a Gulps win not only helps Dawg but it prevents Muggers from reaching 8 wins.

Here are the tiebreaker scenarios that are relevant:
  • Muggers loses (7-7) and Gulps (7-7) wins, IPA/Blonde loses (7-7) and Dawg wins (7-7), Fury wins (7-7): Now we need a H2H2H2H2H tiebreaker for 3 spots. Ugh. As best as I can tell, the first tiebreaker when you have multiple teams with the same winning record as each other and unequal games played between them is winning percentage amongst tied teams. As best as I can tell, Muggers is 4 and 1 (.800) against every other team which is the highest, and thus would advance. It would devolve to H2H2H2H with the remaining 4. The two teams leading here are Fury at 2-1 (0.667) and Dawg at 3-2 (.600), so Fury would advance. Now we have H2H2H between Dawg, Gulps, and IPA/Blonde. In this scenario Gulps would be 2-1 (.667), Dawg 2-2 (.500), and IPA/Blonde 1-2 (.333). Gulps would advance and Dawg and IPA/Blonde are out in the cold.
  • Muggers loses (7-7) and Gulps wins (7-7), IPA/Blonde loses (7-7) and Dawg wins (7-7), Fury loses (6-8): Fury is out. We have H2H2H2H amongst the remaining for 3 spots. Muggers is 3-1 (.750) against the remaining three which is the best. Muggers advances. Amongst the remaining three, looks like Gulps is 2-1 (.667), Dawg is 2-2 (.500), and IPA/Blonde is 1-2 (.333), so Gulps advances. Then it's H2H and in this scenario Dawg is 2-0 over IPA/Blonde, so Dawg advances and IPA/Blonde is eliminated.
  • Muggers win (8-6) and Gulps (6-8) loses, IPA/Blonde loses (7-7) and Dawg wins (7-7), Fury wins (7-7): Muggers advances and isn't part of the tiebreaker. Gulps is out. Based on H2H2H record, Dawg would then be 3-0 (1.000) against IPA/Blonde and Fury. IPA/Blonde would be 0-3 (.000) against Dawg and Fury. And Fury would be 1-2 (.333) against Dawg and IPA/Blonde. Dawg advances, and we replay the tiebreaker H2H between IPA/Blonde and Fury. IPA/Blonde and Fury only faced once, with Fury winning. Thus Fury advances and IPA/Blonde is eliminated.
  • Muggers loses (7-7) and Gulps (7-7) wins, IPA/Blonde wins (8-6) and Dawg loses (6-8), Fury wins (7-7): IPA/Blonde advances, and we have a 3-way between Muggers, Gulps, and Fury, for 2 playoff spots. Muggers is 2-1 (.667) here, Gulps is 1-2 (.333), and Fury 0-2 (.000), so Muggers advances. It then comes down to H2H with Gulps and Fury, and Gulps advances. Fury is out.
I left out both Muggers and IPA/Blonde winning, because then Gulps and Dawg don't get to 7 wins and Fury's outcome is based purely on their own game (win and you're in). And if Fury also loses, then there are zero 7-7 teams and the final spot comes down to 6-8 tiebreakers. I also left out Muggers winning, IPA/Blonde losing, and Fury losing, because then IPA/Blonde and Dawg both get in at 7-7 and there is no need for tiebreakers.

So for each team:
  • Muggers: Appears to be in the playoffs in every scenario, even with a loss, no matter what happens. Congrats!
  • IPA/Blonde: In the playoffs with a win. With a loss, requires the Muggers to win and Fury to lose to get in a 7-7 with no tiebreaker needed. Loses all tiebreakers.
  • Gulps: In with a win. Gulps wins all possible tiebreakers if they get to 7-7.
  • Dawg: Winning isn't enough. With a win, Dawg is in unless Muggers loses and Fury wins, as Dawg is left out in a 5-way tie.
  • Fury: Winning isn't enough. Fury is in with a 5-way tiebreaker. Fury is in with a win and an IPA/Blonde loss, advancing in a Fury/IPA/Dawg tiebreaker. But Fury is out if IPA/Blonde wins and Muggers loses, not advancing in a Fury/Muggers/Gulps tiebreaker.
Holy crap that's confusing. Someone check my math on this maybe?

The 6-win scenario

All the above doesn't mean you need 7 wins to get in. If Gulps, Dawg, and Fury all lose, then Patronus has won (facing Fury this week) to get to 6-8, and Mahomeys only needs to beat Kupp to make it a 5-way tie at 6-8, or a Mahomeys loss makes it a 4-way tie at 6-8.

Sorry. I'm not doing those tiebreaker. My brain is broken. If anyone else wants to take it on, be my guest.

But suffice to say, the three teams currently sitting at 5-8 are NOT out of it.

Week 14 Preview

  • Prestige Worldwide (10-3) v Hop To It (4-8): Honestly not much to talk about here. Prestige already has locked up the first round bye, and it's just a matter of whether they make the #1 or #2 seed, and could still end up #1 with a loss. Hop To It is out of it entirely.
  • Bar Flies (9-4) v Bones are their Money (9-4): The winner of this game gets to avoid the quarterfinal and jump straight into the semis with a bye. Given how crazy fantasy can be and one bad week in the playoffs can send you packing, that's a massive advantage. So a lot on the line here. No apparent bye week issues for the final bye week of the season. Should be a good matchup!
  • Milwaukee Muggers (7-6) v Big Gulps (6-7): Not a very important matchup for the Muggers. They are in for the playoffs even with a loss if my math is right, and even further is locked into the 4 seed in every scenario except IPA/Blonde winning and the Muggers losing. But in that scenario, IPA/Blonde would be the 4 and Muggers would be the 5, and the 4/5 seeds face each other anyway, so there's no difference. Not so for Big Gulps. A win locks Big Gulps into the playoffs, and a loss requires a LOT of other things to happen just to have a chance at a tiebreaker at 6-8, so this is critical. Big game here, at least for one of the two teams!
  • Mr IPA and Mrs Blonde (7-6) v Dawg Pound (6-7): Critical game for both teams. IPA/Blonde is into the playoffs with a win, but loses all tiebreakers with a loss. The only way IPA/Blonde can make the playoffs with a loss is with a Muggers win AND a Fury loss. For Dawg, it's similar. Losing here means a lot has to happen outside just for a shot at a 6-8 tiebreaker, but a win--while not sufficient to guarantee a playoff spot--makes the playoffs MUCH more likely. Both teams have to be thinking must-win here. IPA/Blonde for a guarantee of a spot and not having to rely on any outside help, and Dawg because the outside help needed in case of a loss is a VERY long shot scenario.
  • Finger Lakes Fury (6-7) v Beer is my Patronus (5-8): This is obviously a must-win for Patronus. A Fury win means not only that 6-8 isn't enough to get into a tiebreaker, but that Patronus would be 5-9 and outside that tiebreaker anyway. So the importance can't be overstated. For Fury, a loss only gives a long shot scenario at the playoffs, while a win--also not sufficient--ensures that you have much better odds of winning the tiebreaker. And if both Muggers and IPA/Blonde win, a win for Fury requires no tiebreaker to get that playoff spot. Fury is the top-scoring team in the league to date, but really needs to be shooting for a win and not trying to rely on a 6-8 tiebreaker. Fury's last 3 wins have come against teams that wouldn't be involved in a potential 6-8 tiebreaker, drastically reducing the odds of getting in.
  • Beer with Mahomeys (5-8) v fill my Kupp (4-9): Life support for Mahomeys and Kupp is out entirely. Must-win for Mahomeys to have a piece of a potential long shot 6-8 tie, but even a win will be for naught if any of the 6-7 teams win this week. Luckily they're facing a team in Kupp with their starting QB on bye, which helps the odds.
So that's it. We're in the final week. 4 teams are locked for the playoffs, and two spots up for grabs. It's been a long hard season, but this week determines who is definitely shipping beer and who still has a shot at receiving some!
 

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