How to prepare for a wee rough ride...?

[Dland]

OK, think I'm posting in the right forum...

Might not be a bad idea to stock up on some brew supplies, probably won't be a priority shipping during ...anyway..black swan, hamburger crisis or whatever...

I counted and I had enough essentials to brew 8 or 9 ten gallon batches.

Ordered some more batches worth, so I could feel like I was being proactive...just kidding,,,sort of. Got to keep up with essentials...{;

 

[day_trippr]

I'll play: BeerSmith says I have over 300 pounds of base malts (evenly distributed between GP, Breiss 2 row & Weyermann pilsner), around 50 pounds of various specialty malts, ~12 pounds of hops, a few packs of both US05 and S04, and 1056/1318/2565/B64 strains currently ranched. Assuming I can keep my propane tanks filled ...if I cut back on the NEIPAs, I could milk that for at least 150 gallons across 15 batches.

As I currently have 15 mostly full kegs I think I'm good for 2020...

Cheers!

 

[Dland]

That's cool, I know you have a lot of stuff trippr, even if only on electronic inventory, ...might of missed my point, but glad you're stocked.

I was thinking of the blokes and lasses that may brew on a 'just in time supply basis'. ABVs could be on short supply, not just current news, but at any time...(duh).., to me brew is something I'd rather not do without, and..try to plan ahead..,anyway, drunk and rambleing,.. over.

 

[BruceH]

I ordered 36lbs of extract so I could make beer without boiling if need be. I'm good on hops and yeast for at least a year and have about 90lbs of malt. For the most part I never let my malt stores get below 40lbs of base malt. Kinda like how I never let the pantry get less than half empty.

We always have a few months of essentials on hand. My wife makes fun of me for it but the behavior has been embedded since I was very young growing up in a rural area on the northern plains.

 

[day_trippr]

That's cool, I know you have a lot of stuff trippr, even if only on electronic inventory, ...might of missed my point, but glad you're stocked.

Missed your point? And "if only on electronic inventory"? Seriously? You playin'?

[...]anyway, drunk and rambleing,.. over.

Wanna see my surprised face?

Cheers! (Thank your stars you aren't a minor character in "Goodfellas" )

 

[bracconiere]

hmmm, i just ordered 4 lb's of hops, and malt my own.....this crisis isn't going to effect the feed store is it? i don't want to have to drink hard liquor again....(this is the exact reason i started malting my own, fear of being cut off by InBev)

 

[Dland]

Missed your point? And "if only on electronic inventory"? Seriously? You playin'?

View attachment 668844Wanna see my surprised face?Cheers! (Thank your stars you aren't a minor character in "Goodfellas" )

Joking about the inventory, since you cited your brewsmith inventory, I had no doubt about your stash,,,sorry I don't articulate as well when drunk..{; & I did get you to take a picture..haha

Don't know much about goodfellas, except my wife hates it, but maybe that's 'cause she is Sicilian and from one of those families.

hmmm, i just ordered 4 lb's of hops, and malt my own.....this crisis isn't going to effect the feed store is it? i don't want to have to drink hard liquor again....(this is the exact reason i started malting my own, fear of being cut off by InBev)

If it goes worse case, which admittedly it probably won't, it could disrupt transit of all goods. Reminds me, better load up on animal feed too. I'd hate to have to slaughter perfectly good productive young laying hens.

In unrelated note, anyone thinking it's time to look at buying some equities again?

 

[seatazzz]

I work in the freight industry, and I can tell you it is getting SCARY. Specifically I'm a dispatcher for a company that handles both air and ocean (container) imports. Usually this time of year we're experiencing a slight slowdown because of CNY, but this year it is infinite times worse. We've already laid off 6 people and more are on the block. I *think* I'm safe, because I know and/or do a lot more than my job description, but if the hammer falls there's nowhere to go since every freight company is in the same boat (pun intended). Gonna buy grain this weekend so if I do get laid off I have something to do....and drink.

 

[gunhaus]

KOOLAID? I don't see your koolaid? 9.7 million cases of flu this year to date, 87,000 hospitalized, 4800 dead. My sisters hospital lost two patients to flu relates pneumonia LAST WEEK. And you guys are seriously stock piling against the corona "crisis"? Don't forget your koolaid! It is easy to find, if you are in the grocery store it will be on your left, between the boxes of hysteria, and the buckets of BS.

 

[Dland]

gunhaus, at some point peoples reaction to perceived threat can be greater than threat itself, especially economically.

I pad my stockpiles before every known possible threat to supply lines, weather,(a lot of that here) plague, y2k,....the trick is not to load up on anything you would not normally use anyway, it costs me exactly zero to do so in long run. I don't happen to like koolade, but probably will grab a few bottles of scotch.

Living on an island with shoddy boat service, linked to a cape served only by two 1930's era bridges, downwind of the worst rated nuke plant in the country..I think anyone who does not keep supplies is irrational.

But most here are content with the aprox 4 days supply of groceries that is here at any given time, so you're in good company.

 

[BruceH]

KOOLAID? I don't see your koolaid? 9.7 million cases of flu this year to date, 87,000 hospitalized, 4800 dead. My sisters hospital lost two patients to flu relates pneumonia LAST WEEK. And you guys are seriously stock piling against the corona "crisis"? Don't forget your koolaid! It is easy to find, if you are in the grocery store it will be on your left, between the boxes of hysteria, and the buckets of BS.

That's a good point.

What I think about is that I've never heard of a country putting 60 million on lockdown before this but it's happened. I wonder why they did that?

In the end it will be treated like the flu because it's not containable. Once that happens panic will go away. What happens between now and then is another story. Human nature and all. Grocery stores go bare when one day of snow is forecast around here.

 

[BruceH]

Something I use on brew day is paper towels. The new ad broke at Costco today. $4.50 off a big package of paper towels. I got there at opening and the line was deep just to get in the door. By the time I got in I was number 119, I know this because one employee was assigned to just counting customers.

When I got to the paper towel area there was nothing, no tp, no paper towels, nothing but a few packages of dinner napkins. I asked and they said they have been sold out for days, nothing in the warehouse to resupply.

So I changed gears and added a 1.75 liter of whiskey and another of vodka to my shopping, just in case a protracted self isolation comes our way, lol.

 

[BruceH]

One more item was ordered today. A hand pump for pushing beer out of a ball lock keg.

 

[Jayjay1976]

That's cool, I know you have a lot of stuff trippr, even if only on electronic inventory, ...might of missed my point, but glad you're stocked.

HAHA my electronic inventory says you got his number LOL!!

 

[Jayjay1976]

Missed your point? And "if only on electronic inventory"? Seriously? You playin'?

View attachment 668844




Wanna see my surprised face?

Cheers! (Thank your stars you aren't a minor character in "Goodfellas" )

I just rolled my eyes so hard I think I saw my brain.

 

[day_trippr]

You should probably have someone look into that problem...

Cheers!

 

[505-Brewer]

That's a good point.

What I think about is that I've never heard of a country putting 60 million on lockdown before this but it's happened. I wonder why they did that?

In the end it will be treated like the flu because it's not containable. Once that happens panic will go away. What happens between now and then is another story. Human nature and all. Grocery stores go bare when one day of snow is forecast around here.

The data from China indicates it is “containable”. Without the drastic measures taken it would be much worse and would have been here sooner. It is hard to contain but stopping its spread (by keeping infected away from not infected) is really the only weapon we have to fight it, unless we want to take turns sharing ventilators. Put the sick on their own island (w no caretakers coming and going!) so to speak. Its not the flu. More contagious and more deadly. Could easily overwhelm everything. Already is really when you think about it.
With measures in place peak infection numbers were 3-4 weeks out?. I bet in the US it takes longer. “Never underestimate the power of denial” (movie quote - anyone know from where?) Granted it killing 50% of the population would actually be a good thing in the long run (for those that live). Too many damn people in this world. Now peoples actual response to all this is crazy.
Personally i think everyone staying home for 3 to 4 weeks is a good thing....... as long as my deliveries still arrive.......I could use the break and I wanna invent the next beer craze.

In fact (not a fact, I have no idea since I wasn’t tested) Im pretty sure Ive already had it! My “flu” in late Feb. knocked me on my ass and was like no other in history. At the onset I pounded three hazies and am convinced that was what kept it from migrating to my lungs........

On a more positive note, I now thoroughly enjoy telling annoying people in the gen pop:

“ Im pretty sure Ive already had it. In fact I still might.” And then start coughing and coughing and coughing. Fastest way to create social distancing. If only I could sneeze on demand.....

Anyways.
Im going back to working on my “Will trade beer for toilet paper” sign. I have all my nhc entries I need to get rid of.......

Stay safe.

 

[kh54s10]

OMG, the panic over Covid 19 has spread this far!!!!

 

[BruceH]

OMG, the panic over Covid 19 has spread this far!!!!

There is a difference between being prepared and panic. Being prepared for a few weeks of self isolation and not being able to get out isn't panic. Buying 1000 rolls of toilet paper is panic.

Not having enough supplies for a few weeks is poor planning, especially when the powers that be (at least where I live) suggest everyone be prepared for a few weeks or more of isolation. Ensuring I have access to home brew and components to home brew is part of my planning

 

[kh54s10]

There is a difference between being prepared and panic. Being prepared for a few weeks of self isolation and not being able to get out isn't panic. Buying 1000 rolls of toilet paper is panic.

Not having enough supplies for a few weeks is poor planning, especially when the powers that be (at least where I live) suggest everyone be prepared for a few weeks or more of isolation. Ensuring I have access to home brew and components to home brew is part of my planning

This is what I am commenting on. It seems like people are stocking up for way more than a few weeks.

 

[kh54s10]

Copied this from what I posted in the Coronavirus thread:

↑
Ok, go to 3000, that is .0001% of the US population. This is serious and getting worse. But the state of the panic at this time is extreme. Even at the rising rate of spread. Those that are hoarding today will probably need to go out and resupply when things could be much worse.
My point is that the number infected now is low and will get worse. So panic now is premature. Take precautions but there is no need to go to the extremes that some are doing now. I will be staying away from large gatherings, especially those that have a lot of travelers. I will be paying more attention to washing my hands. I will try to keep more distance from other people in general. I will not be shaking hands. Etc. Other than that I will be leading my life as normal.

That said I need to go grocery shopping. I will buy more non-perishable foods than normal. And I hope that I can get about 4000 rolls of toilet paper. Just kidding.

 

[thehaze]

I just brewed 6 batches, so I'm good. But I usually don't stock and I'll not be stocking this time due to current events. I have over 300 bottles of beer - 6 different beer styles, so hopefully enough to entertain me for a few weeks.

 

[applescrap]

Thats right, habit one of the 7 habits of effective people is being proactive. Reactive is worry, panic. Being proactive is buying a s..t ton of applejuice and some brisket. Positioning yourself to win is a better response than worry.

 

[Transamguy77]

So we normally have a freezer or 2 of frozen vegetables, beef, pork and chicken and a pantry full of various can goods and dry goods but we are in an in between house and moving next month so we are at a bare minimum and we did have some panic and had to go shopping but my wife had thought ahead before all the craziness and did big shopping trip.

I also have not been brewing and have been buying so I hit the beer distributor and picked up some stuff.

 

[BruceH]

I went ahead and ordered another 50lbs of grain and 32oz of iodine sanitizer. These are things I'll use anyway and will be nice to have on hand. Also went to the local propane distributor, they had used 5 year certified 20lb tanks for $10 so I picked up two. With fill it was $40 for both.

It's getting more serious, the propane place had been busy all day with no letup. More cars are on the road in town than I've seen maybe ever and school is closed.

 

[day_trippr]

I filled all three of my 20 pounders this afternoon in minutes at the local BJs.
Hardly anyone around, attendant that also works their tire store looked bored AF and happy to see me

Cheers!

 

[kh54s10]

I filled all three of my 20 pounders this afternoon in minutes at the local BJs.
Hardly anyone around, attendant that also works their tire store looked bored AF and happy to see me

Cheers!

I work at a big box home improvement store - paint department. I have seen no change in the amount of customers. The last few weeks have been panic city the customers bought all the respirators, disposable gloves, sanitizers, and most of the paper towels. This is going to be around for a while. And some will have to re-supply when it is much worse. At the same time business people that need respirators and disposable gloves for their work - wood workers, painters etc. can't get them because of the panic buying.

 

[Dland]

Its raining here, so I went out this morning to assemble materials for a job we have to do tomorrow, to stay ahead of crew. Both lumber yard and plumbing supply place have doors shut. You have to put orders in by phone or email, and pick up at dock or wait for delivery. Meanwhile, across the street, the grocery store lot is full, no room for social distance in there.

 

[Robert65]

Stopped into LHBS today. They're getting slammed with people stocking up. Guy told me about one woman who put in an order and requested next day air. She lives 7 miles from the shop. How is that supposed to work? Bet she's got a $#!? load of toilet paper, too.

 

[day_trippr]

When I stopped at an lhbs yesterday the owner said things had been quiet wrt walk-ins, but had noticed an up-tick in on-line orders.
He's going to stay open one way or the other, even if all sales will be via the web with boxed pick-ups available for locals...

Cheers!

 

[BruceH]

I added to the problem today. Rumors are circulating that the area I live in will be put in self-isolation. I had an order in with one vendor but it hadn't shipped for two days (or so I thought) and when I went on the web site my grain was out of stock. So I went to another vendor and ordered a 50lb sack. As soon as I did that an email appeared that the other order had shipped.

Maybe it was meant to be. As long as the mrs isn't home when the orders arrive all will be well.

 

[Robert65]

I probably would have added more to the problem by buying another sack, but wisely checked first to find that Lowe's is out of gamma lids (hoarders gotta keep the TP dry.)

@day_trippr, good to see you looking more like yourself again.

 

[Zuljin]

I work at a big box home improvement store - paint department. I have seen no change in the amount of customers. The last few weeks have been panic city the customers bought all the respirators, disposable gloves, sanitizers, and most of the paper towels. This is going to be around for a while. And some will have to re-supply when it is much worse. At the same time business people that need respirators and disposable gloves for their work - wood workers, painters etc. can't get them because of the panic buying.

Since it's nearly spring and I already have mine, I'm gonna tell the secret. The paint dept has the best plastic ice scrapers, they're never sold out, and they cost a fraction of the inferior "ice scrapers" sold elsewhere.

 

[day_trippr]

day_trippr, good to see you looking more like yourself again.

I'm still mourning our lost Caribbean vacay, and as it'll be a year from now before we return I decided to go back to The Flies again...

Cheers!

 

[Robert65]

Since it's nearly spring and I already have mine, I'm gonna tell the secret. The paint dept has the best plastic ice scrapers, they're never sold out, and they cost a fraction of the inferior "ice scrapers" sold elsewhere.

Probably also good for scraping zombie remains off your hood and windshield if you make it through. So still seasonal.

 

[505-Brewer]

I added to the problem today. Rumors are circulating that the area I live in will be put in self-isolation. I had an order in with one vendor but it hadn't shipped for two days (or so I thought) and when I went on the web site my grain was out of stock. So I went to another vendor and ordered a 50lb sack. As soon as I did that an email appeared that the other order had shipped.

Maybe it was meant to be. As long as the mrs isn't home when the orders arrive all will be well.

Mash grain heat to sterilize and drink. Its emergency preparations. Why give the yeast all these calories.

 

[BruceH]

Mash grain heat to sterilize and drink. Its emergency preparations. Why give the yeast all these calories.

One of these days I'll save the spent grain for bread additions.

 

[kh54s10]

I guess if it comes down to it I have over 100 pounds of grain. (I haven't been brewing as often lately - other projects) so if push comes to shove I could mill very fine and make some sort of bread out of the grain.

 

[Jayjay1976]

Looks like Chicago will be closing all non-essential businesses today, announcement coming in about an hour.
I'm going to miss dropping in to my LHBS, I sure hope they stay in business.

 

[Snuffy]

That's a good point.

What I think about is that I've never heard of a country putting 60 million on lockdown before this but it's happened. I wonder why they did that?
In the end it will be treated like the flu because it's not containable. Once that happens panic will go away. What happens between now and then is another story. Human nature and all. Grocery stores go bare when one day of snow is forecast around here.

The issue with this situation is not just that it can kill people, it's that it is a novel virus - which means it is something the human species has NO inherent immunity to and has never encountered before. Every case is your immune system encountering something totally unique and then the race is on to see if your system is strong enough to kill it before it gets you. The countries that have been hit and gotten thru to control of the explosive spread are the ones who have successfully sweated out the lockdown period and have come out the other side with a drop in new cases to a volume that does not overrun the healthcare system's capacity to treat folks. Italy is the other side of the coin. Their case load overwhelmed the healthcare system's capacity so quickly that people who could be easily treated are dying due to lack of doctors and beds and ventilators and medicines. The morgues are full and doctors are having to make life and death decisions based on survival odds. Bad, bad scene.
We are only a few weeks away from a similar situation but on a much larger scale. If we don't chill TFO and let the infection curve level out, we are headed right where Italy is now - or worse. So you say, "This aint that bad a virus, it's just like a flu, I'm going out" and then you pick up the bug from a door handle at the MiniMart and you get infected. Then you go without symptoms for 2 weeks spreading it all around and making sure your family gets a good dose. You get a fever and a cough and after a while you get better. Then grandma who is in her 80s and Uncle Ted who just got done with chemo start coughing and can't breathe and there's no room in ICU cause 1000 other people did the same thing you did. And every 6 days the number of infected doubles. Forget how many people die of the flu. Forget how inconvenient it is and forget how many dorks horded all the TP. Stay at home. Wash your hands. Use sanitizer. Wipe down the handles and the places people touch. Wear the masks and gloves - not for you, for them. Isolate yourself if you feel ill at all. Stock up on fever medicines instead of TP. Give it long enough for us to come out the other side with a handle on things like they have done in China and Korea and Japan. This could get ugly guys. It doesn't have to, but a little stupidity can do a lot of damage and regret.

Read this:
https://www.kevinmd.com/blog/2020/03/a-covid-19-coronavirus-update-from-concerned-physicians.html

The website sucks but the article is written by doctors and is an eye-opener - and they provide the data to back it up.

*Just wanna clarify that when I say "you" I mean that collective "you" and not you you. I quoted some stuff from a conversation but I didn't necessarily get everything I was responding to. So consider it like I'm talking about that Goofus guy that always got compared with Gallant in the old Highlights mags they had at the dentist office when you were a kid.