Guesstimating OG?

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blanchmd

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So my first brew day in 4 years, I'm back! And I now remember all the unanticipated blips you get. So when I went to check the OG the hydrometer leaped out of my hands and did a suicide nose dive into my concrete garage floor. No spare. That was Sunday. LHBS not open Mondays. Today, almost 48 hours in I got a replacement and I'm at 1.06, OG was supposed to be 1.07. I had no visible signs of fermenting yesterday morning but by the night I needed a blow off tube. What do you think, was my OG somewhere around 1.07 or would it have dropped more (or less) 48 hours in? I am not one to check everyday so I have no experience with what might be considered typical
 
Post your recipe and someone can calculate your ~OG.. or you can do it yourself if you use an online recipe calculator such as beersmith or brewersfriend.
 
Post your recipe and someone can calculate your ~OG.. or you can do it yourself if you use an online recipe calculator such as beersmith or brewersfriend.

The problem with that method is you have to assume an efficiency to do the calculation. Depending on what value you assume, you can make the OG almost anything. Without a measured OG and volume, you can't calculate the actual efficiency.

The method of using hydrometer & refractometer readings to calculate OG doesn't require assuming an efficiency.

Brew on :mug:
 
Yes, I agree. But he said he took a hydro reading and it read 1.060. He can either take it as it stands and assume he got bad efficiency assuming it was supposed to get to 1.070 as stated in the original post, or try and calculate an "estimate" of what his OG would have been if he does know the efficiency and/or volumes of his system.
 
Yes, I agree. But he said he took a hydro reading and it read 1.060. He can either take it as it stands and assume he got bad efficiency assuming it was supposed to get to 1.070 as stated in the original post, or try and calculate an "estimate" of what his OG would have been if he does know the efficiency and/or volumes of his system.

Depends on your consistency. Some folks are all over the place and are okay with that. Some of us are anal little buggers about it and really dial things in. If he knows he's usually within one point of target at his normal projected efficiency, then yeah, calculating works fine. But for some folks I know who are just fine being off by 4 or 5 points (or more) with the excuse of "it's still beer" (which while true is a cop-out in my book). Me, I'm rarely more than 0.2°P (<1 point in SG) off from target, and in the event I'm more than 0.2°P off, I begin the hunt to figure out why.

Best bet is to actually measure w/ refractometer and hydrometer and calculate that way. But at the end of the day, it doesn't really matter much anyway at this point.
 
I should have been a little clearer. My recipe has the OG calculated at 1.070 and I did pitch yeast 48 hours before I was at 1.060, and I had a good fermentation start with enough happening that I had to use a blow off tube or the bung would pop off. So I know I have some attenuation and it was higher than 1.060 I guess my question is really -- how much can you drop in gravity in two days? Or what is average? I would have figured I was right around 1.070 based on the recipe but I mashed too high (not intentional, another story altogether) and was concerned I might have generated unfermentables (which I guess begs another question, do the unfermentables effect gravity)?

All in all, I should probably just not worry and drink a beer
 
Yes unfermentables affect gravity..And yes you can easily loose .010 and more in 48 hours.
 
OP, I know the forum topic is AG and PM brewing, but we should confirm whether you're talking about an AG batch, before discussing the effects of efficiency.
 
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