HBT NFL Mock Draft '09

I've seen a lot of draft boards that have Sanchez a lot higher than #20; he seems likely to me to go somewhere between maybe #8 and #15. Think there's a realistic chance of getting him that low in the first round? He's probably more game-ready coming out of USC than Stafford is, which is why it wouldn't surprise me to see him be the rookie QB who impresses the most next year.

the_bird said:

I've seen a lot of draft boards that have Sanchez a lot higher than #20; he seems likely to me to go somewhere between maybe #8 and #15. Think there's a realistic chance of getting him that low in the first round? He's probably more game-ready coming out of USC than Stafford is, which is why it wouldn't surprise me to see him be the rookie QB who impresses the most next year.

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I don't see Sanchez getting past the Jets at #17 but you never know. A lot of 'experts' think that Freeman has moved into the #2 QB spot ahead of Sanchez. I've seen mocks with both of them gone by #10. I've also seen mocks with both Stafford and Sanchez still on the board at #20 and Freeman not going until the mid 2nd.

I agree that #8 to #15 is where Sanchez should go, but when you look at the teams in those spots, he may well still be on the board at #17.

#8 JAC - Gerrard, no need to spend 1st on a QB
#9 GB - Rogers
#10 SF - Maybe, but most think that Singletary is want to go Defense
#11 BUF - Edwards
#12 DEN - possible, if they move Cutler
#13 WSH - Campbell
#14 NO - Brees
#15 HOU - Schaub
#16 SD - Rivers
#17 NYJ - Kellen Clemens? The Jets will be looking at a QB here.
#18 CHI - not likely, they'll go with Orton
#19 TB - resigned McCown, QB is a possibility.
#20 DET - certainly a possibility

Depending on what happens with Cutler, he may not get by Denver at #12.

ohiobrewtus said:

In the event that uglygoat doesn't check this thread, be prepared for a vote as to who the Browns should take at #5.

Brian Orakpo
Everette Brown
Malcolm Jenkins
Other - specify who

I vote Orakpo.

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I think Orakpo is probably the best choice though they could use the secondary help they would get from Jenkins. It will almost certainly be a defensive pick.

Craig

I vote Orakpo, This draft is moving like old people have sex.

ohiobrewtus said:

I vote Orakpo.

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Yeah, my vote's with Orakpo.

RICLARK said:

This draft is moving like old people have sex.

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I thank God I've never witnessed it to make the comparison. Though I did once see a movie called "Gang-Bang Goat". This draft is absolutely nothing like that.

See, I read that at first as "Gang Bang BOAT," and I was all prepared to make a Vikings reference.

Your taste in movies is MUCH more disturbing, though.

Danek said:

Yeah, my vote's with Orakpo.

I thank God I've never witnessed it to make the comparison. Though I did once see a movie called "Gang-Bang Goat". This draft is absolutely nothing like that.

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Was it a talking goat? "bless me in the goatass!"

uglygoat hasn't posted on HBT in about 2 weeks. He may be MIA from this draft.

Still we need to give him the agreed upon 24 hours before calling it.

Although I am anxiously checking this thread so I can make the next obvious draft pick.

Craig

Unfortunatley it appears that way, but rules are rules. He gets 24 hours.

An unfortunate delay in this process is also sometimes me. If someone makes a pick and the next person isn't online to see that they're up then the clock doesn't officially start on them until I send them a PM and post that they are officially on the clock. It happens. I can't be online 24/7.

Wait until we get to round 2. Everyone involved it watching like a hawk and the picks just scream by.

ohiobrewtus said:

Was it a talking goat? "bless me in the goatass!"

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Thankfully the goat did surprisingly little. We saw it when out on a friend's stag night in Spain. It was basically a bad porn film in which a bored-looking goat occasionally wandered on and off the set. So as I say, nothing like this draft.

uglygoat's time has expired.

Witht he 5th pick int he 2009 NFL Draft the Cleveland Browns select Brian Orakpo, DE/OLB - Texas.

CBBaron is now on the clock.

With the 6th pick in the HBT mock NFL draft the Cincy Cats (Cincinnati Bengals) select Eugene Monroe from Virginia.

Pretty obvious choice for Cincy. They need some OTs and Monroe appears to be the best available. Many drafts have this player going even higher in the draft so it would not be considered a stretch. Eugene should be a significant upgrade to the protection for Palmer.

Craig

Raiders are taking Crabtree. They need so much help in so many places, but you know what direction Al Davis is going to want to go.

the_bird said:

Raiders are taking Crabtree. They need so much help in so many places, but you know what direction Al Davis is going to want to go.

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Picking Crabtree would be sexier than picking OL or defense but I'm not convinced thats the way they will go. A lot of good players available and they do need help. Of course that true of all of the teams picking early.
When TJ left Cincy I figured they would pick up Crabtree. Now that they spent big on a free agent WR I think he is no longer an option for them.

Craig

I think it makes SENSE for them to go for someone like Everett Brown, but I just don't see them doing that. Hell, I'm not convinced they shouldn't draft Sanchez; if JaMarcus ever makes the Pro Bowl, I'll eat my shoe.

But they'll draft Crabtree; they've got to have someone to catch those Michael Vick passes!

eriktlupus has been notified that he's on the clock for the Raiders

I'd say Crabtree as well. Al Davis loves him some WR.

Vick will spend a year playing in the new UFL before he signs with the Raiders.

JaMarcus Russell is a colossal bust. He makes Alex Smith look like Peyton Manning.

ohiobrewtus said:

JaMarcus Russell is a colossal bust. He makes Alex Smith look like Peyton Manning.

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Seriously.....What the Hell were they thinking taking that guy? He wasn't even that great in College IMO.

the_bird said:

Raiders are taking Crabtree. They need so much help in so many places, but you know what direction Al Davis is going to want to go.

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with the seventh pick the raiders will take.....jeremy maclin from mizzou,

i'm worried bout that stress fracture in crabtree's foot. they have a tendency to linger for a couple years on route runners.

Given Al Davis' obsession with speed, there is a chance that they may actually make this pick.

Schweaty is now on the clock for the Jags.

eriktlupus said:

with the seventh pick the raiders will take.....jeremy maclin from mizzou,

i'm worried bout that stress fracture in crabtree's foot. they have a tendency to linger for a couple years on route runners.

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That is a good pick, I was worried about crabtrees heart.

With the 8th pick in the HBT Mock Draft, the Jacksonville Jaguars select Michael Crabtree.

RICLARK said:

Seriously.....What the Hell were they thinking taking that guy? He wasn't even that great in College IMO.

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He had size and athleticism. Everyone in the league thought he had great upside. Then again, he does play for the Raiders. Look what happened to Moss when he was there.

Dude is on the clock. I'm thinking Everette Brown.

That'd be a good call. Though I could see Andre Smith going here if the Packers think his physical upside outweighs his character concerns. If his head's right he could be a dominating player.

ohiobrewtus said:

Dude is on the clock. I'm thinking Everette Brown.

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I was listening to the Local Sports Radio Show outa Detroit last night, From what all the guys close to the lions were talking it sounds like there going to take Stafford. Whatcha think?

he had a greatworkout for the team from all i hear but i still think if the lions take him then the management is starting back down the same road millen was on. ya know take whoever is flashiest first whether or not they fit in your team plan.

RICLARK said:

I was listening to the Local Sports Radio Show outa Detroit last night, From what all the guys close to the lions were talking it sounds like there going to take Stafford. Whatcha think?

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They certainly need a QB, and he'd be an improvement on what they have now. Whether Stafford's worth the top pick is another question, as is the issue of whether you'd want to start him as a rookie straightaway. I suspect that with Flacco and Ryan doing so well last year, it'd be easy to underestimate how hard it is for a first-year player to step in and lead the team. It's certainly possible - but if you had to pick a team for a rookie to come in and lead, it sure as hell wouldn't be the Lions.

Thinking back of the QBs taken very early, there's probably more that have been complete busts than those that have been successful. Seems like the ones that ARE going to do well, it was pretty clear they were franchise QBs. Peyton Manning, I don't think there was ever really any doubt he was going to be successful. Eli's been a little more hit-or-miss in his career, but he earned a ring and can't be considered a bust.

You think of guys that HAVEN'T washed out of the league, they've gotten into high-quality organizations; the Mannings to the Colts and Giants, I think of Drew Bledsoe playing for Bill Parcells in New England, McNabb going to play in Philly, McNair going to Houston. You look at most of the guys who've turned to busts - David Carr, Akili Smith, Alex Smith, etc etc etc, they've gone into organizations in turmoil, they've gotten shellshocked because they had horrible pass protection, they change coaches and co-ordinators every season.

Is it worthwhile to draft a QB first overall when you've got a bad offensive line, a lot of pressure on the kid to play before he's ready, and an unproven, unestablished coaching staff?

Just reading about the kid... the scouting reports read a lot more like the ones you read about the second group than about the first.

If I'm the Lions, I'm thinking about either a stud offensive lineman to protect whomever I draft NEXT year to play QB, or a guy like Curry that seems to be one of the surest things in the draft.

I'm hoping that the Lions stay away from Stafford. The success rate of QB's coming out early is incredibly low. Roethlisberger is the only recent exception and even he is no Peyton Manning or Tom Brady. Sure the Lions need a QB, but whiffing on a #1 overall pick sets a team back 5 years (ie Joey Harrington). Like I've said before, I think that they're better off using this offseason and free agency next year to get the players in place to make Sam Bradford successfull when they draft him next year .

If they do take him they better be doing so with the intention of letting him ride the pine and learn for a year. I think that they're better off going with Curry or Smith.

I fully expect the Lions to be one of the front runners should the Broncos actually end up trading Jay Cutler.

ohiobrewtus said:

I fully expect the Lions to be one of the front runners should the Broncos actually end up trading Jay Cutler.

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You know, that thought alone ought to be enough to get Cutler to shut the hell up. He's going to wake up some night yelling, "HOLY CRAP, I might get traded to Detroit! "

Kyle, what do you think about Sanchez? If he were available at around #9, would you trade the #20 and maybe a third-rounder to move up and grab him?

Ya but instead of bragging that he can throw farther then Elway he can say "Ya I can definatley throw farther then Scott Mitchell and oh ya Charlie Batch".

Don't be dissin' Chaz Batch. He was the best QB Detroit had since what, the 1950s?

the_bird said:

Don't be dissin' Chaz Batch. He was the best QB Detroit had since what, the 1950s?

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I liked Harbaugh But Batch was sure better then Mitchell,Kitna,Orlovsky,Stanton,O sullivan and I think that Backus can throw better then harrington.

Edit: Lmao I dont know why I said Harbaugh Guess it was because I was reading a article about stanford. I Liked Rodney Peete and Kramer.

the_bird said:

You know, that thought alone ought to be enough to get Cutler to shut the hell up. He's going to wake up some night yelling, "HOLY CRAP, I might get traded to Detroit! "

Kyle, what do you think about Sanchez? If he were available at around #9, would you trade the #20 and maybe a third-rounder to move up and grab him?

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I like Sanchez, but only if he falls to them at #20. When you're as bad as the Lions and need as much help as they do you shouldn't be trading up for a rookie. If they're going to give up a draft pick for a 3 year proven Pro Bowl guy like Cutler, however, I think that makes sense.

Even with guys like Bradford and McCoy (probably) coming out next year, Sanchez would have been better off staying in school. Another year like he had last season and he's a guaranteed top 5 pick, if not in contention for #1 overall, in 2010.

As for Cutler, I would think that the idea of coming into an offense with Calvin Johnson and Kevin Smith would actually be attractive.

the_bird said:

Don't be dissin' Chaz Batch. He was the best QB Detroit had since what, the 1950s?

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Batch did well in the couple years that he was a starter for the Lions, but the best and most consistent QB they've had since Bobby Layne was easily Erik Kramer.

Speaking of Detroit and first-round junior QB busts, here's perhaps the most useless piece of trivia I've ever seen:

"Andre Ware voiced the role of General Nick Fury in Marvel Comics Ultimate Avengers and Ultimate Avengers II (Rise of the Black Panther)."

Nice that he finally found his niche.

ohiobrewtus said:

The success rate of QB's coming out early is incredibly low.

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I think you mean, "The success rate of "QB's coming out is incredibly low."

Of all the positions in football, there's a good reason QB is the most difficult to project to the NFL (actually, there are several), and there's a good reason that number of starts is one of the important indicators to future success. By coming out early, of course, you're missing out on a whole season to refine your understanding of the game and pick up on some collegiate-level defensive nuances, which can then (hopefully) be translated to picking up on some NFL-level defensive nuances, and as if the game weren't hard enough, you're making it that much harder on yourself.

But money, injury, etc.

Even so, most senior QB prospects fail, as well. If juniors are more visible of doing so, it's because most junior QB prospects don't come out unless they're going to be a first or maybe second round pick, and those busts are always visible, senior or junior, whereas you'll get seniors taken later who do better. But I don't think the rate of successional seniors is too much higher than that of successful juniors.

hokster said:

I think you mean, "The success rate of "QB's coming out is incredibly low."

Of all the positions in football, there's a good reason QB is the most difficult to project to the NFL (actually, there are several), and there's a good reason that number of starts is one of the important indicators to future success. By coming out early, of course, you're missing out on a whole season to refine your understanding of the game and pick up on some collegiate-level defensive nuances, which can then (hopefully) be translated to picking up on some NFL-level defensive nuances, and as if the game weren't hard enough, you're making it that much harder on yourself.

But money, injury, etc.

Even so, most senior QB prospects fail, as well. If juniors are more visible of doing so, it's because most junior QB prospects don't come out unless they're going to be a first or maybe second round pick, and those busts are always visible, senior or junior, whereas you'll get seniors taken later who do better. But I don't think the rate of successional seniors is too much higher than that of successful juniors.

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You make sense. Some of the recent quarterbacks that have been very successful in their first year in the NFL are Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco and Ben Rothelisburger. All were 3 or 4 year starters in college. Ofcourse Matt Cassel was a 4 year backup.

I think a bigger factor in the success of rookie quarterbacks is the team they are playing on. Flacco and Rothelisburger started for teams that had good defensive units and effective running attacks. They were given the chance to grow into the job without trying to win every game alone while running for their lives. The failures listed above were all on teams where the new star quarterback was supposed to rescue them. Its a recipe for a short career as a quarterback when in that position.

I think Russell could be a really good quarterback in the NFL. He showed plenty of promise in college and he definitely has the athletic ability. But on a team like the Raiders he may never be able to overcome.

If Stafford is chosen by the Lions I would expect worse. They need OL and defense first, then if those pan out next year look to get a quarterback. A rookie on the current team will not be any kind of upgrade.

Craig