HBT NFL Mock Draft '09

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With the first selection in the 2009 NFL draft the Detroit Lions select...

Aaron Curry, LB - Wake Forest.

It's a bit unconventional to take a LB with the #1 overall pick, but new GM Martin Mayhew has shown so far this offseason that he's anything but conventional when it comes to making moves that he thinks will improve this team.

As I write this it is being reported that the Lions are the most likely trade partner with the Denver Broncos in the Jay Cutler sweepstakes. If they end up landing Cutler, the trade package may end up including this pick. If it does not, then it will most certainly include the #20 overall pick in the 1st round. The Lions continued interest in Jay Cutler almost completely eliminates Matthew Stafford from contention for the #1 pick.

Stafford may be the best QB prospect in this year's draft but given the competition, that's not saying much. Stafford takes too many chances, he doesn't perform exceptionally well under pressure and his completion percentage, win/loss record and TD/INT ratio in 3 years at Georgia are a combined slightly above average at best. Slightly above average is not what you're looking for when you need a $35 million guaranteed new face for your franchise. The Lions know that they're rebuilding and they will take their chances on landing a franchise QB next year in what appears to be a MUCH stronger class of QB's.

I was really torn on this selection. Despite the recent trade that sent Corey Redding to Seattle (with a 5th round pick) for LB Julian Peterson, this came down to Jason Smith and Aaron Curry for me, as the Lions needed to come out of this offseason with both a new MLB and a new OLB. They got their new OLB in Peterson.

The Jeff Backus (Lions starting LT) situation really makes this complicated. Jim Schwartz wants to run the ball and focus on the trenches. Smith would be plugged in at LT and Backus moved to LG, or Smith could play LG for a year then take over at LT when it becomes more cap friendly to cut Backus.

I was 50/50 until I looked at the Lions biggest needs - MLB, DT, OT, OG and CB. There is no DT worthy of the #1 overall selection unless they reach for Raji. That leaves Curry and Smith (and possibly Eugene Monroe, who is scheduled for a visit with the Lions this week).

There are 6 potential starting LT's in this draft and 2 of them are likely to be available when the Lions pick at #20 - William Beatty and Eben Britton. There are 3 potential starting MLB's in this draft and they could all be gone by #20 (Curry, Maualuga and Laurinaitis). The Lions #1 need IMO is MLB. The number of prospects available at each postiion steers me towards Curry, but what actually happens is ultimately dependent upon the contract negotiations that will start in a month or so - as well as Matt Stafford's pro day later this week. If he completely blows the Lions away then he may come back into contention for this pick.

I believe that the Lions will be able to convince Curry and his agent to take slightly less money to be taken #1 overall than someone like Smith or Stafford would want just because of the position that he plays. Curry played SAM in college, but he played the middle in nickel situations and Lions head coach Jim Schwartz has stated multiple times that Curry would have no problem playing Mike in a 4-3.

Curry gets inserted at MLB from day one, making the Lions defense better immediately.

There's a lot still looming at this point, and Detroit may not even be picking here, but right now, this is the right - and safest pick for this franchise.

(not all explainations need to be anywhere near this long, guys... :D)

Danek is now on the clock for the St. Louis Rams.
 
With the second selection in the 2009 NFL draft, the St Louis Rams select...

Jason Smith, OT - Baylor.

A no-brainer. Smith is the best of an excellent crop of offensive linemen, and arguably worthy of the #1 spot overall. The Rams released Orlando Pace, and with this pick they replace him and lock up one tackle spot for the next ten years. Some teams are wary of picking this high in the draft, as the costs are high for what are effectively untested players. But like Curry, Smith is as close to a sure thing as you'll get.
 
With the third pick in the HBT NFL Mock Draft, the Kansas City Chiefs select...

B.J. Raji, defensive tackle, Boston College.

We're obviously not going for a quarterback, and no one seemed inclined to move up to grab Matt Stafford. There was never a debate that we needed to take a defensive player; look at all the D-linemen that Pioli and Belichick drafted high. Raji's a prototypical thick, low-built defensive lineman that can play the nose if we install the 3-4 defense, and has got the build to play the 2-gap technique.

The Chiefs are pretty desperate for a pass rush, so we were also thinking about some players who have more potentially to get after the quarterback - but the easiest way to get better in the NFL (and to have consistent success) is to be able to stop the run.
 
cuinrearview is now on the clock for the Seattle Seahawks.

Great pick, Jay.
 
I was hoping for Curry (he seems like the closest to a sure thing in this draft), but having a big, talents guy like Raji in the middle makes such a difference. I remember how much better the Pats got, almost instantly, when they brought aboard Ted Washington. We've talked about this; I'm a firm believer in building from the inside out; teams that control the line of scrimmage consistently are almost always in the playoffs, even if they lack playmakers.
 
the_bird said:
I was hoping for Curry (he seems like the closest to a sure thing in this draft), but having a big, talents guy like Raji in the middle makes such a difference. I remember how much better the Pats got, almost instantly, when they brought aboard Ted Washington. We've talked about this; I'm a firm believer in building from the inside out; teams that control the line of scrimmage consistently are almost always in the playoffs, even if they lack playmakers.
Click to expand...

Yup, with Curry gone I had the Chiefs choosing between Raji and Orakpo.
 
So, 'Brewtus, what are the rules about this thread? Are we allowed to speculate on upcoming picks, or should we wait until the pick is made?
 
the_bird said:
So, 'Brewtus, what are the rules about this thread? Are we allowed to speculate on upcoming picks, or should we wait until the pick is made?
Click to expand...

Speculate away. It gets too hard to follow all of the pics once we get a couple of pages deep so I don't see any harm in it - that's why I always update the OP with all of the selections.

At #4 I'd say Seattle snags Eugene Monroe. Walter Jones can't play forever, and the signing of TJ Who'sYourMama takes Crabtree out of contention for the pick.

Stafford could be a surprise option here as well. At 34, Hasselbeck is ancient in NFL QB years.
 
I'm thinking Stafford. As much as I love a dominant offensive lineman, he's got to protect SOMEBODY. Hasselback's not just 34, he seems to be an OLD 34, and you know that Seneca Williams - I'm sorry, Seneca WALLACE - isn' the answer. Hasselback sticks around for a year teaching the kid the ropes, then goes off to pasture.

Could they make a move for Whinin' Jay Cutler?
 
RICLARK said:
Holy Shiot the Lions got Julian Peterson? When did this happen? Goodbye Corey Redding!
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Ya, it happened over the weekend. The Lions sent Corey Redding and their 5th round pick to Seattle for Julian Peterson. Neither team has officially announced the deal yet though as they are waiting for both players to pass physicals.
 
ohiobrewtus said:
Ya, it happened over the weekend. The Lions sent Corey Redding and their 5th round pick to Seattle for Julian Peterson. Neither team has officially announced the deal yet though as they are waiting for both players to pass physicals.
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Thats so badass, I couldn't find any info on it until I went to the seahawks website.
 
Dude said:
You think Orakpo will go that high considering all the QBs and OTs rated higher, and teams that need those positions first?

The reason I ask is I was hoping Orakpo would fall to #9. :D
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It's hard telling what will happen in our draft, but in the real draft I don't think that Orakpo will get past Cleveland at #5. If he does get past Cleveland then he'll be there for GB at #9. CIN, OAK and JAC are all looking for an OT. OAK may go WR with Crabtree. The wildcard is JAC. I think they need OT but they could use some dline help as well so Orakpo may be an option to pair up with Derrick Harvey.
 
cuinrearview PM'd me his pick:

With the 4th selection in the 2009 NFL Draft, the Seattle Seahawks select Matthew Stafford, QB - Georgia.

uglygoat is now on the clock for the Cleveland Browns.
 
Well, uglygoat's PM box is full. Hopefully he checks this thread.

I'm thinking Orakpo or possibly Everette Brown. Jenkins is an option as well, but this may be a bit high for him.
 
Stafford had to be the pick there, I think (although it wouldn't surprise me to see Sanchez come in and quickly make his mark).

One of those two defensive players for Cleveland; they need some impact players on that side of the ball - followed by Cinci taking Eugene Monroe to shore up their offensive line. I'm then thinking that Al Davis goes for something shiney and grabs Crabtree.
 
That bat-**** insane offensive lineman - Andre Smith - how far's he falling? He's got to be out of the first round, I'd be surprised if anyone even gambles on him in the second. How far's he going to drop? Third round? Someone take a flyer on him, thinking he just needs some meds, and take him in the fourth? Or is someone still going to take him on day 1?
 
I'd be surprised if he falls out of the 1st round. I'm guessing he won't go until #20 or so.
 
I don't think he's a first rounder anymore. MAYBE ealry in the second, but I could also see him falling for a while. Not just that he's crazy and undisiplined, but he also couldn't bench worth a ****.
 
the_bird said:
I don't think he's a first rounder anymore. MAYBE ealry in the second, but I could also see him falling for a while. Not just that he's crazy and undisiplined, but he also couldn't bench worth a ****.
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All valid points, but he's still the best run blocker in this draft. There's a kid like this every few years. They fall, but they don't fall that far. The investment required after about pick 16 or so make these guys worth the risk for team in the second half of the first round.

Matt Jones in 05 - incredible athlete, but no one knew where to play him and there were questions about his character. Went to JAC at #18

Warren Sapp in '95 - thought to be lazy and have drug issues, TB picked him at #12 after he was considered to be top 5 in terms of pure talent.

Randy Moss in '98 - freakishly talented, questions about off the field issues (drugs). He fell all the way to #21 when the Vikings took him.

Brady Quinn in '07 / Aaron Rogers in '05 - Quinn fell mostly due to teams not needing QB's, but people thought he wasn't ready for the NFL game. Same thing for Rogers. Eventually someone moved up in the 20's to get them at a point where they thought that their potential was worth the lower contract that they they would have to pay out.

Same deal with Smith. Some coach will be convinced that he can make Smith the player he's capable of being. I believe it's very unlikely he gets out of the first round. In fact, if he's there at #21, I would be VERY surprised if the Eagles don't take him. He's the type of big OL that they like to have.
 
i agree ohio. He hurt his stock pretty bad but he was a very effective blocker in a tough division. He won't make it past the second half of the first round. If there hadn't been so many good lineman this year he probably would still be going top 15.

Craig
 
RICLARK said:
Does anyone know if Pat White is being looked at as a QB or a WR?
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He looked very good at the combine at QB and his coach refused to let him run routes with WR's at WVU's pro day.

White is late 2nd to 3rd round guy. I don't think he'll make it as a QB in the NFL but he could be a solid contributer as a KR/PR, WR and 3rd down RB.
 
ohiobrewtus said:
He looked very good at the combine at QB and his coach refused to let him run routes with WR's at WVU's pro day.

White is late 2nd to 3rd round guy. I don't think he'll make it as a QB in the NFL but he could be a solid contributer as a KR/PR, WR and 3rd down RB.
Click to expand...

I didn't think he was gonna be a top notch OB in the Nfl, And I don't see him being the next Randle El either.

Also What do you think about trading the #1 for cutler if they wouldn't take the #20? A lot of people are dismissing this move but I think it would be logical because you know what your gonna get with cutler and the draft is hit and miss and there is no clear cut #1 and essentially it would be worth the same money.
 
I think you'd consider that move as Detroit if you got back something else in return. I don't see Jay Cutler for the #1 overall pick; Jay Cutler and maybe a second or third rounder for the #1, or maybe add in a pick in next years' draft, maybe that works for both teams.

Cutler and next year's 1st rounder (likely #15 - 20) for the #1 overall pick? Seem about right?

Cutler's a whiny little *****, isn't he? You really want him?
 
the_bird said:
I think you'd consider that move as Detroit if you got back something else in return. I don't see Jay Cutler for the #1 overall pick; Jay Cutler and maybe a second or third rounder for the #1, or maybe add in a pick in next years' draft, maybe that works for both teams.

Cutler and next year's 1st rounder (likely #15 - 20) for the #1 overall pick? Seem about right?

Cutler's a whiny little *****, isn't he? You really want him?
Click to expand...

Personally, I do not want Cutler on the Lions but if they can get him at a decent price it may happen and I'd be ok with it. I really think that Denver is going to need to get a QB in return though, and the Lions don't have any. I think that this makes the Lions an unlikely trade partner unless another team gets involved.

I want to see the Lions take this offseason and free agency next year and build up the trenches, then draft Sam Bradford or Colt McCoy next year. Both are leaps and bounds above Stafford.
 
What about the Lion's #20 for Brady Quinn? That's about where he was drafted. The Browns haven't let go of either Quinn or Derek Anderson yet, have they? Either that or Matt Leinhart, after the Cards re-signed Kurt Warner. That #20 pick *should* be able to net a young, talented QB that's got a couple of seasons at least on the sidelines. Wouldn't one of those guys make sense?
 
Well, Cutler's clearly the most talented of any of these players, and would certainly have the biggest positive impact on next years' squad. I think he's worth the #20 pick, OR I've give up the #1 if Denver sent me either a second rounder this year OR a 2010 1st rounder back.

The other guys - and I haven't seen enough of Quinn or Leinhart to really judge - would seem to be reasonable options that might not even cost the #20 pick. Wouldn't one of those teams want to unload their backup QB for a high 2nd rounder, then just sign one of the decent vets still on the market (Garcia, etc.) to be the backup?
 
I'm not opposed to Quinn or Leinart, or Derek Anderson for that matter, but I don't think that any of them are more valuable than someone that the Lions could get at #20. If a team is willing to take #33 and a conditional pick in '10 then I think that's a good move for the Lions. Neither Quinn or Leinart are much more proven than taking Sanchez or Freeman at #20.

I say see if Linehan can ride Culpepper's back for this season then draft your franchise QB next year.
 
In the event that uglygoat doesn't check this thread, be prepared for a vote as to who the Browns should take at #5.

Brian Orakpo
Everette Brown
Malcolm Jenkins
Other - specify who

I vote Orakpo.
 

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