The future of barley in doubt

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nebben

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The subject is somewhat misleading, but the future of barley production for malting purposes doesn't look good. Small or no increases in production coupled with increased demands worldwide will mean higher prices.

Someday maybe homebrewing will also include home-malting as a matter of practice? Who knows.

Brewers Association | The Future of Brewing Barley: An Editorial
 
Simple economics of supply and demand...

I'm not worried. If the price goes up, then the farmers will take notice and start growing more barley if they think they can make more money off of it. Within a couple years, there could equally be a glut in the market due to increased production.
 
jpc said:
Simple economics of supply and demand...

I'm not worried. If the price goes up, then the farmers will take notice and start growing more barley if they think they can make more money off of it. Within a couple years, there could equally be a glut in the market due to increased production.

Actually I know this to be true.

My sister is affiliated with a local Ag & Tech college and they are working with local farmers to reintroduce barley to the area. Couple that with he resurgence of hop growing - at one time history, this area supplied 80% of the nation's hops - and he college plans to offer a brewing science course...and the future's so bright. I gotta wear shades....
 
The article brings up some good points. As the price of petroleum goes up because of dwindling supplies (oil gets harder to extract/refine as time goes on) and increased demands (China's and India's rising middle classes, among others), it also stimulates demand for petroleum alternatives including biofuels. Biofuel is a substitute of gasoline or diesel, so as the price of gas/diesel goes up, biofuel's demand increases as consumers shift away from gas/diesel looking for cheaper alternatives.

Because of these increased demands for corn, rapeseed, and other biofuel crops, their prices go up. When a farmer is weighing growing corn versus barley, if corn's price is increasing, it makes the most sense to grow corn. Since land is a finite resource, as the price of corn and biofuel crops go up, farmers will inevitably switch over to these crops since they will get more money out of it. For them to want to grow malting barley instead, they will only do so if their profit is greater than or similar to the alternative of growing biofuels. As barley production is traded for corn production, barley will become more scarce (reducing supply) and causing an increase in prices assuming demand for malting barley holds constant (people will probably still drink).

Translation: as oil prices go up, the price of malting barley will go up as barley becomes more scarce.
 
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