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McCaffrey going IR. Minimum missing 5 games (including the one already missed last Monday).

Glad I wasn't in position to draft him. Dude seemingly finds himself with nagging soft tissue injuries every year.
 
Bryan Cranston Mic Drop GIF
 
Alright, almost a third of the way through the regular season and I think we're starting to see this league year shaping up.

In front is @Chorgey at 4-0. Not that we're crowning anyone yet, but Bar Flies is currently the #3 team in points scored. This is something I always look at for correlation--wins and losses can be a noisy statistic, but points scored is a good indicator of strength of a team.

Pulling up the rear is @pshankstar at 0-4. But as he already said, the Finger Lakes Fury know a critical truth about the world--you can't make an epic comeback if you're not in a position you need to come back from. So good for you, buddy! Your master plan is coming to fruition. Now you just need some wins!

In between we have three teams at 3-1, four teams at 2-2, and three teams at 1-3. A few notes:

The Muggers are at 2-2 right now, but they are 5th in points scored and 2nd in points against. So the record may be a reflection of facing tough teams. They lost to Birds of War (formerly Bones) in a match where BoW scored 182, and then lost a tight one against me (IPA/Blonde) this week where the Muggers scored 133 and I managed to put up 139. This is a team that IMHO is better than their record.

The same is also true for fill my Kupp at 1-3, a team that's 4th in points scored but 1st in points against. Of the three losses, two of them were good performances by Kupp but facing teams that scored over 140, and one was an EXCELLENT performance by Kupp at 156 points scored, but Patronus came out and dropped 186. Again a team that's better than their record IMHO.

An interesting team is Prestige Worldwide. Sitting at 3-1 but 7th in points scored. Currently dealing with injuries to Cooper Kupp, with a Tyreek Hill that's impacted by the Tua injury and a Mark Andrews on his roster that has largely disappeared all year. This is a team that I think is benefiting from being very lucky in the first several weeks. But with the roster there's a lot of upside here going forward. Being 3-1 so far with these problems could REALLY help Prestige later in the season when some of those guys get healthy and/or return to form, not having to feel like they're scraping together wins to make the playoff.

Other than that I don't see that many outliers. For the most part the other teams have W-L records that are largely within expectation based on the points scored.

Big matchups for this week:

  • Chorgey (4-0) vs IPA/Blonde (3-1): Depending on what happens with the other 3-1 teams, this could be a scenario where Chorgey gets to 5-0 and has a 2-game lead on 2nd place, or it could be a scenario where we could have a four way tie atop the league at 4-1. This is a key matchup to determine whether the top of the standings separates or condenses.
  • Prestige (3-1) vs Muggers (2-2): Obviously these are two teams I highlighted above for their records not necessarily reflecting the strength of their performance to date scoring points. Muggers is clearly getting Prestige at the right time due to health/situation. If Muggers can capitalize on the opportunity they push closer to the top of the standings. If not, Prestige will likely be breathing a sigh of relief at getting through another week while trying to get back to healthy, while Muggers will be sitting at 2-3 and feeling like their record is dramatically underperforming their roster.
  • Coneheads (1-3) vs Fury (0-4): If Fury is going to repeat the improbable comeback of last year to make the playoffs, it almost HAS to start this week. Facing the 1-3 Coneheads, the bottom-scoring team in the league, this is a critical one. Especially as Fury faces the 3-1 Muggers in week 6 and 4-0 Chorgey in week 7. Likewise, this could be a turning point for Coneheads. Facing Fury this week, then a tougher matchup against 3-1 Patronus in week 6, but getting 2-2 and 11th in points scored Hop To It in week 7. With a little luck, Coneheads could be leaving week 7 at 4-3 or at the very least 3-4. But if things fall badly, Coneheads could be 1-6 at the same time. Getting a win this week is critical for both teams.

Note: I don't plan on doing weekly updates until we get closer to the playoffs. But there will DEFINITELY not be one until after week 6 is complete, as I'm leaving for vacation on Thursday and won't get back for a week.
 
Six weeks in the books, and we're one week shy of halfway through the regular season.

Two interesting things from my previous update:
  • I called out the Muggers at 2-2 but 5th in points scored, and 2nd in points against. Since that update, they've improved to 3rd in points scored and unsurprisingly that has led to a move up to 4-2 in record. Although they had to eek one out lol...
  • Prestige Worldwide was 3-1 but 7th in points scored. They've now dropped to 9th in points scored, and unsurprisingly that has led to a slide to 3-3 in record.
With that we're starting to see a stronger correlation between points scored and overall record, if you sort the standings.

Right now we have 7 of 12 teams at .500 or better, with Patronus and Bar Flies leading the pack tied for first at 5-1.

This week will be a pivotal week for all of the other 5 teams, however:
  • Fury (0-6) is in a deep hole and needs wins. We've got 8 weeks left, and I don't think it's likely that the playoff cutoff will be worse than 7-7. So Fury likely needs to win 7 of the next 8 to have a shot at the playoffs. Fury faces the tied for first place Bar Flies this week, so it's not going to be an easy path.
  • fill my Kupp (2-4) faces Big Gulps (2-4), while Coneheads (2-4) faces Hop To It (2-4). Which means we're going to see separation in this group. Getting to 3-4 is important vs falling to 2-5. And these teams are 6th, 8th, 10th and 11th in points scored. So for these teams, a win this week will likely come easier than facing some of those top scoring teams above them.
At the top we also see (except Bar Flies) that we have matchups between a 5-1 and 4-2 team, and the two remaining 4-2 teams each face 3-3 teams. So we might see some separation there as well. But that, to me, seems much less pivotal than those 2-4 teams facing each other. So I wanted to highlight those matchups.
 
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