Alright... We're down to three weeks remaining.
Looking at the remaining schedules, I honestly think that 7-7 is going to be the playoff cut line, but that there will be multiple teams in tiebreaker mode at 7-7.
That, of course, means that everyone with 4 wins is still alive in this thing. Bar Flies & Just Joshin at 4-7 have to win out to get into that tiebreaker, which they can't both do as they face each other in week 13. But one of them could get there. Bar Flies has fill my Kupp this week and then finishes off with Bones are their Money in week 14. Just Joshin has HBT Football team this week and fill my Kupp in week 14. So they each are facing the last place team in one remaining game.
Which then brings up the obvious question. What is the "safe" line for playoffs? Is 8-6 enough? Or, put another way, with 9 teams at 5 wins or better with 3 weeks remaining, is there ANY mathematical possibility to have 7+ teams end up at 8-6 leading to tiebreakers. Not that I think we *will* have even 6 teams there, opening the door to a massive 7-7 tiebreaker, but is it mathematically possible?
So let's look at it. I'm going to do it in reverse order of standings because it's those 5-6 teams that need 3 wins to get there.
And I repeat--this exercise is NOT whether these teams can make the playoffs. It's whether they can get to 8-6, and whether that will be enough to guarantee a playoff spot.
9. incREDibles (5-6): Must win all three remaining games against Lone Tree Farms (6-5), Hefeheisman Winners (5-6), and Hop To It (7-4). So here we have our first cut line. incREDibles and Hefeheisman cannot both win out because they face each other. So we're down from 9 potential tied teams to 8. Hop To It doesn't factor in because they have one game against Mr IPA and Mrs Blonde, and by winning that could lose against incREDibles and still get to 8. So we'll have to look ahead to questions of whether a win against Lone Tree Farms would make it impossible for Lone Tree Farms to win their two remaining games (or by doing so would knock out another team's chance).
8. Hefeheisman Winners (5-6): Must win all three remaining games against Mr IPA and Mrs Blonde (8-3), incREDibles (5-6), and Lone Tree Farms (6-5). My team doesn't factor, as a loss doesn't impact me. Obviously incREDibles is (per previous) is an either/or proposition. And here we have Lone Tree Farms again. Mathematically LTF could lose to one of these teams and then beat the loser of the incREDibles/Hefeheisman game, so it'll come down to whether LTF's third game impacts anything.
7. HBT Football Team (5-6): Must win all three remaining games against Just Joshin (4-7), Bones are their Money (6-5), and Big Gulps (6-5). Just Joshin doesn't factor in, as a win there doesn't affect any teams that can reach 8-6. But with two games against 6-5 teams and needing to win both, if HBT Football Team gets to 8 wins, it means that both Bones and Big Gulps need to win both remaining games on the schedule. So we'll have to look at those.
6: Lone Tree Farms (6-5): Must win two of three against incREDibles (5-6), fill my Kupp (3-8), and Hefeheisman (5-6). So here we have our answer. LTF's third game doesn't impact any teams that can reach 8 wins. So two of the three (LTF and the winner of the incREDibles/Hefeheisman matchup) can mathematically make it to 8 wins if it falls right. And none or only one of the three can make it to 8 wins as well.
5. Bones Are Their Money (6-5): Must win two of three against Dawg Pound (7-4), HBT Football Team (5-6), and Bar Flies (4-7). Mathematically can get there without a problem. Losing to HBTFT doesn't eliminate Bones, Bar Flies doesn't factor as they can't reach 8, and Dawg Pound is only one win away from 8 facing IPA/Blonde, who is already there, so Dawg Pound could lose this game and still get to 8.
4. Big Gulps (6-5): Must win two of three against Hop To It (7-4), Dawg Pound (7-4), and HBT Football Team (5-6). Can mathematically make it. Like Dawg Pound, Hop To It has a remaining game against IPA/Blonde, so Hop To It can make it to 8 losing this game, as can Dawg Pound. This means Big Gulps could lose to HBTFT (thus leaving their dreams alive) and still reach 8 without stopping any remaining opponents from reaching 8.
3. Hop To It (7-4): Must win one of three against Big Gulps (6-5), Mr IPA and Mrs Blonde (8-3), and incREDibles (5-6). Can make it with a win in any game, but specifically the game against IPA/Blonde doesn't impact any team trying to reach 8, so can lose both other games and keep those teams' dreams alive.
2. Dawg Pound (7-4): Must win one of three against Bones Are Their Money (6-5), Big Gulps (6-5), and Mr IPA and Mrs Blonde (8-3). Can make it with a win in any game, but specifically the game against IPA/Blonde doesn't impact any team trying to reach 8, so can lose both other games and keep those teams' dreams alive.
1. Mr IPA and Mrs Blonde (8-3): Already at 8, remaining schedule of Hefeheisman Winners (5-6), Hop To It (7-4), and Dawg Pound (7-4).
So by my math, here, of 9 teams who are still within range of getting to 8 wins, the ONLY mathematical certainty is that the loser of the incREDibles/Hefeheisman game can't get to 8 wins.
It's not very likely, but mathematically we could have an 8-team tie at 8-6 in three weeks. And the tiebreakers there are very complicated, probably enough to break the NFL.com servers.
So we have nobody currently that can call themselves a "LOCK" for the playoffs. We'll have to wait until next week to revisit.