Poll: Do you have, or plan to get, an electric car?

[AzOr]

I'm not saying that it isn't capable or can't be handy. I'm saying that the real world application isn't that straightforward.

When the power goes out, you often don't know how long it'll be out for. A few years back most of my home county suffered a power failure due to a blizzard. They didn't know how many days it would take to get power back. I believe the power was out for several days, in that time people needed to be able to go to the grocery store, check on loved ones, etc, after the snowplows went through. They needed their vehicles to travel several miles in order to do that. They also needed to be able to keep their houses warm enough the pipes wouldn't burst, keep their refrigerators running, medical devices needed to keep operating, etc.

Within the last few years my town lost power after a storm. We didn't know how long we'd be without power. We didn't know if we'd need to get out of town to grab some supplies. My wife took the car and went to work the next day.

When the power goes out, the common themes are that you probably don't know how long that problem will last, you need to keep some power going at your house, but you will also probably need to travel. Relying solely on something like the Lightning's feature to power your home is an interesting situation. One would need to assess how much range they might have (further complicated when you consider that the vehicle might not be completely charged anyway), what they might need to travel for, and how critical it is to keep power at the house.

It's a good option to have, but I think that backup power from a system of batteries, solar panels, and maybe a wind turbine makes a lot of sense.

My wife and I recently had a zoom meeting with a solar consultant to review their estimate on solar panels. Initially, I had inquired about a battery bank similar to Tesla's power wall. The consultant told us of a bi-directional charger that is coming to the US in a year or so. Its basically a charger that can reverse the flow of electricity from your car to power your house. Essentially turning every ev car into a power wall and acting similar to the F150. Apparently this charger is being used in other countries.
In the event of a power outage, the solar panels could charge the car and power the house during the day. At night the car could power the house. Since battery banks or power walls are not cheap. It makes a lot more sense to buy an ev and essentially have a battery bank with wheels. This meeting took place just a few days ago so I haven't had a chance to do any of my own research.

 

[Bilsch]

Essentially turning every ev car into a power wall and acting similar to the F150. Apparently this charger is being used in other countries.
In the event of a power outage, the solar panels could charge the car and power the house during the day. At night the car could power the house. Since battery banks or power walls are not cheap. It makes a lot more sense to buy an ev and essentially have a battery bank with wheels. This meeting took place just a few days ago so I haven't had a chance to do any of my own research.

Unfortunately some EV manufacturers (Tesla) won’t let you do that. Which means I have 150kwh of batteries sitting in my garage I sadly can’t use in an outage for home power.

 

[Broothru]

Unfortunately some EV manufacturers (Tesla) won’t let you do that. Which means I have 150kwh of batteries sitting in my garage I sadly can’t use in an outage for home power.

If Lightning's ability to become a mobile storage battery catches on, Elon will change that paradigm and adjust to improve on the idea. Even an innovator has to adapt or disappear.

 

[AzOr]

If Lightning's ability to become a mobile storage battery catches on, Elon will change that paradigm and adjust to improve on the idea. Even an innovator has to adapt or disappear.

I think Elon's days of being the Proprietary King are coming to an end. With Ford and others stepping up their ev game, he no longer has the luxury of being unwilling to go mainstream.

A year ago, if I were in the market for an ev, Tesla would have been my only pick. The e-mustang is looking pretty sweet. Hopefully the rumors are true of the new Maverick being available in all electric in a couple of years. For me that makes more sense than the F150 ev. I could put 80-90% of all my miles on that and still keep my gas guzzler tow vehicle.

 

[Broothru]

Same here. Three years ago I wanted to put panels on the roof and a Power Wall in the garage to charge a Tesla. Now I've got a Volvo, a Prius and a Mercedes. Two gas bangers and a hybrid I plug into a 20 amp/120V outlet that charges in 5 hours and serves my daily needs for a week. The only time I worry about gasoline is when I have to add fresh fuel once a year to keep the ICE happy.

Elon is focused too much on outer space right now, but if the corporation he started can produce a breakthrough in battery tech, he'll still be the premier player in the marketplace. The other manufacturers will benefit from the technology and its increasing acceptance, but Tesla will likely remain the leader in the near term.

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

Elon is focused too much on outer space right now, but if the corporation he started can produce a breakthrough in battery tech, he'll still be the premier player in the marketplace. The other manufacturers will benefit from the technology and its increasing acceptance, but Tesla will likely remain the leader in the near term.

I think the future is rosy for EV, but I'm not sure it's all that rosy for Tesla as a company. I've seen too many instances where an upstart gets first mover advantage in a marketplace, but just doesn't have the scope to scale when the much larger entrenched players start taking that market seriously.

The market I'm familiar with is data storage. It's similar to transportation in that the underlying goal (building cars to get from point A to B / building data storage products that attach to computers) is not as tied to the technology (battery vs ICE / HDD vs SSD) as you'd think. Throughout the late 200x / early 201x years, there were TONS of companies in the SSD market that were darlings of the media and some of them of Wall Street.

Those companies are almost 100% owned by players much larger than they ever were, because they couldn't scale once the big boys started paying attention.

First mover advantage only exists when you're ahead in technology. If you're not ahead in technology, you need the logistical excellence of being able to build cars... And that's something that everyone else is better at than Tesla.

 

[Bilsch]

I think the future is rosy for EV, but I'm not sure it's all that rosy for Tesla as a company. I've seen too many instances where an upstart gets first mover advantage in a marketplace, but just doesn't have the scope to scale when the much larger entrenched players start taking that market seriously.

First mover advantage only exists when you're ahead in technology. If you're not ahead in technology, you need the logistical excellence of being able to build cars... And that's something that everyone else is better at than Tesla.

Don't forget that Tesla is not just a car manufacturer but also grid scale battery and solar panel maker. Additionally they have the super charging network with brings income. And if they figure out the autonomous driving thing then Tesla will make Apple look small by comparison.

As far as other companies being better at making cars I would agree they are better at making ICE cars but not EV's. Auto companies are specialists at making engines and transmissions and chassis made from hundreds of welded parts. Unfortunately none of that will translate into producing electric cars and especially not cells or battery packs and that is where the big three will choke. There isn't a fraction of the capacity that will be required currently in existence so unless they start breaking ground on several Gigafactory size battery plants yesterday, they are screwed. That and they are legally tied to and constrained by their dealer network which refuses to sell EV's because it cuts into their prime source of income which is fixing and maintaining prone to breaking gas cars.

Tesla by the way is now die casting the whole front and rear aluminum frame assemblies of the model Y in a huge press. This eliminates hundreds of parts that previously needed to be formed or stamped then assembled in jigs and welded together in a time consuming process. Now in a couple minutes the whole part is spit out of a gigantic molding press.


Just some of the many reasons Detroit is far behind and falling even farther as every day goes by. I hope though they finally kick it into gear but it just isn't that easy nor cheap to transition into making a completely different product. Especially when you really don't want to but instead have to.

 

[Broothru]

Don't forget that Tesla is not just a car manufacturer but also grid scale battery and solar panel maker. Additionally they have the super charging network with brings income. And if they figure out the autonomous driving thing then Tesla will make Apple look small by comparison.

As far as other companies being better at making cars I would agree they are better at making ICE cars but not EV's. Auto companies are specialists at making engines and transmissions and chassis made from hundreds of welded parts. Unfortunately none of that will translate into producing electric cars and especially not cells or battery packs and that is where the big three will choke. There isn't a fraction of the capacity that will be required currently in existence so unless they start breaking ground on several Gigafactory size battery plants yesterday, they are screwed. That and they are legally tied to and constrained by their dealer network which refuses to sell EV's because it cuts into their prime source of income which is fixing and maintaining prone to breaking gas cars.

Tesla by the way is now die casting the whole front and rear aluminum frame assemblies of the model Y in a huge press. This eliminates hundreds of parts that previously needed to be formed or stamped then assembled in jigs and welded together in a time consuming process. Now in a couple minutes the whole part is spit out of a gigantic molding press.


Just some of the many reasons Detroit is far behind and falling even farther as every day goes by. I hope though they finally kick it into gear but it just isn't that easy nor cheap to transition into making a completely different product. Especially when you really don't want too but instead have too.

Don't want to sound like a sycophantic fanboy for Tesla, but:

^^^^THAT^^^^

100% Spot On.

 

[corkybstewart]

If Lightning's ability to become a mobile storage battery catches on, Elon will change that paradigm and adjust to improve on the idea. Even an innovator has to adapt or disappear.

My big takeaway is that Ford has opened a door that can't be shut, and other manufacturers will have to quickly come up with something comparable just to stay in the game. The F150 is already the best selling vehicle in the US, so others will really have to step up their game just to not get overwhelmed completely. As you mention about batteries, it will be about more than just vehicles. It's an exciting development.

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

What IS really interesting is that all of this comes down to batteries, and batteries are a huge portion of the cost of an EV. That will become an enormous driver of what happens.

Again, I saw this in data storage. NAND is the biggest cost component of an SSD, and there are a limited number of companies in the world that produce it. Samsung, Western Digital + Kioxia/Toshiba by joint venture, SK Hynix (who just acquired Intel's NAND group as well) and Micron. That's 4 companies or 5 depending how you account for the WD/Kioxia joint venture.

All those exciting SSD vendors that I mentioned? Subsumed into those companies because they weren't vertically integrated in NAND. 2 of the 3 worldwide HDD vendors (Western Digital and Kioxia/Toshiba, but not Seagate) are now vertically integrated in NAND as well. It's a necessary component to success. You can't compete at the largest customers without vertical integration. It's why Samsung / WD / Kioxia / Micron are the biggest names in SSD.

Tesla keeps CLAIMING they are going to be vertically integrated in battery technology, but they're still purchasing from Panasonic. And Tesla's MO is claiming things that may or may not ever happen, so I don't trust anything they say they'll do until they actually prove it.

If Tesla does become vertically integrated in batteries, then they are going to be set up for long-term success. If not--and despite their claims, they are not today--then I don't see how they can compete long-term with companies that are FAR better capitalized and far more logistically capable than they are.

 

[Bilsch]

Tesla keeps CLAIMING they are going to be vertically integrated in battery technology, but they're still purchasing from Panasonic. And Tesla's MO is claiming things that may or may not ever happen, so I don't trust anything they say they'll do until they actually prove it.

The Panasonic Tesla deal is a partnership, those cells are proprietary to Tesla, made in Gigafactory 1 in Nevada and not sold to any other company.
Could we not say that is somewhat vertically integrated?

Besides that there is the Roadrunner pilot 4680 cell plant in Fremont already working which is 100% Tesla owned with an expansion to that facility already in the works. See the 4680's being made in this clip.


Musk and Company are currently building the Berlin and Texas battery sites so IMO it's easy to see who is actually moving forward and who is just talking about it.

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

A partnership and a supply agreement are not vertical integration.

I guarantee that they're not getting those batteries at cost from Panasonic; Panasonic is earning profit. I guarantee they're not given free right to produce the batteries in their own plants; they're likely paying some sort of a license fee to build Panasonic's product.

I believe that Tesla desperately wants to achieve vertical integration, and it's quite obvious why they want that. But they're not there today.

 

[Bilsch]

Even when the 4680 is ramped up Tesla will never make all their own batteries since the demand will exceed several manufacturers ability to supply.

 

[doug293cz]

AFAIK none of the large automakers are fully vertically integrated. They all have numerous suppliers.

Brew on

 

[Apple_Jacker]

AFAIK none of the large automakers are fully vertically integrated. They all have numerous suppliers.

Brew on

Lol yep they have dozens upon dozens of suppliers for almost every component in the vehicle.

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

They make their own engines, basically the heart of the car. The heart of the EV is its batteries.

 

[Kent88]

Kind of off topic, does anyone know about fishing boats with electric outboard motors (not trolling motors)?

I assume I'll own a fishing boat someday. I should probably start figuring this out.

 

[Broothru]

There's a company in Groton, CT, that's been making electric boats for quite some time. In fact, their name is Electric Boat Company. It may not be exactly what you're looking for however, and I think the U.S. Navy has most of their production inventory tied up for the near term at least. Plus the boats spend most of their time underwater. And you'd probably need an advanced degree in nuclear engineering to operate one without meltdown of the fuel core, so there's that.

 

[Kent88]

I thought I covered my bases when I specified that I wasn't talking about trolling motors.

Not sure what kind of fishing you think I'm doing.

 

[Bilsch]

Not sure what kind of fishing you think I'm doing.

One of those would be handy if you were say fishing for Akulas.

 

[Broothru]

One of those would be handy if you were say fishing for Akulas.

Yeah, in a past life I "trolled" for some like that. Quite elusive, but every now and then you can hook one.

 

[TwistedGray]

Picking up my second Tesla next week...flying into Louisiana and driving it back to California (P90DL).

 

[Bilsch]

Yeah, in a past life I "trolled" for some like that. Quite elusive, but every now and then you can hook one.

Did your fishing gear by chance look something like this?

 

[Broothru]

Did your fishing gear by chance look something like this?


View attachment 734657

Things like that make me MAD.

 

[bushpilot]

I have a 2013 Chevy Volt, and it is the best car I have ever owned. With most of my driving done with the electrics, I have averaged 140+ mpg. Additionally, it is just a nice car.

 

[Kent88]

Look Out Tesla Cybertruck, RAM Has A 500-Mile Pickup Truck Too

 

[Bilsch]

Look Out Tesla Cybertruck, RAM Has A 500-Mile Pickup Truck Too

Well they are talking about having one.. some day. But where will they get the batteries?

 

[Kent88]

Where does anyone get them?

 

[Bilsch]

Where does anyone get them?

Anyone gets them by planning WAY ahead, making partnerships with big battery manufacturers, funding Dahn to research the subject, designing your own better batteries and then building out a lot of space to make them. Then when you still don't have enough, buy the available production of CATL and LG.

Alternatively if one has spent the last ten years continuing to build ICE whilst denying EV's are coming.. then you are really far behind and sorta screwed.

 

[Kent88]

Saw an ad for Jeep 4xe today that was getting a lot of grief. I hadn't checked out their website lately so I popped over, and I thought this was neat

I question if the panels are big enough and whether it has built in storage for cloudy days and nighttime, but I definitely don't hate it.