Making money from Water Calculators

[maisch]

we could all be using the charge model put forth by A.J.

You're labeling the charge model as the final frontier but others claim that not all chemical reactions/charges/etc.. are being accounted for. Hopeful that can get resolved.

 

[maisch]

So then you acknowledge there is significance in the use of the word.

I actually say that the word has little meaning or value even in the real world. Don't ever ask for an estimate, always get a contractually binding quote provided you can uphold your end of the bargain (normally a certain amount of money).

 

[GilaMinumBeer]

I actually say that the word has little meaning or value even in the real world. Don't ever ask for an estimate, always get a contractually binding quote provided you can uphold your end of the bargain (normally a certain amount of money).

Which brings the topic back full circle in that the inclusion of the word estimate does not construe the information given as fact.

 

[schematix]

My new years resolution for 2019 was to ignore people on HBT who attribute everything to confirmation bias.

 

[maisch]

Which brings the topic back full circle in that the inclusion of the word estimate does not construe the information given as fact.

You could interpret it as you've stated it or you could interpret it such that the scientific algorithms and scientific basis used are incomplete and lacking thus making it snake oil.

 

[Big Monk]

You're labeling the charge model as the final frontier but others claim that not all chemical reactions/charges/etc.. are being accounted for. Hopeful that can get resolved.

They are all accounted for. Contribution of source water, mineralization, malt modelling, acids (Lactic, Phosphoric), bases (NaHCO3, Ca(OH)2), etc.

Everything of consequence is being accounted for. It's a good model, rooted firmly in pretty darn bulletproof chemistry.

Per my last post though, getting the titration information for the malt can be a struggle. There is a pretty good lot of info that can be used to generalize and make "malt classes" that can be selected by a user, but ultimately you would like to be able to purchase malt and look at the spec sheet to remove any doubt.

So it's a matter of being able to get the malt info, which unless provided by the maltster, would be a heavy lift for the average brewer. For the discerning brewer, however, who is not averse to some malt testing, I think the charge method would be the way to go.

My implementation tries to classify certain malts based on the titration info we do have, which amounts to about 43 different malts and various combinations of pH DI, a1, a2, and a3. It's not perfect. In fact it's a long way from perfect but it incorporates the right modelling for malt.

It's just the dang input data we need isn't there yet!

 

[maisch]

My new years resolution for 2019 was to ignore people on HBT who attribute everything to confirmation bias.

Thank you for editing your post to the correct year.

 

[vtipsy]

Legally an estimate is a fact. When you call for an estimate on a toilet replacement and they say $50 they're held to that by you and contractually except in extreme extenuating circumstance. Legally you'd have to label it as "entertainment purpose only" or some other legal "release of obligation" statement.

My "estimates" are rarely what I pay ... maybe I look like a sucker.

 

[maisch]

They are all accounted for. Contribution of source water, mineralization, malt modelling, acids (Lactic, Phosphoric), bases (NaHCO3, Ca(OH)2), etc.

Everything of consequence is being accounted for. It's a good model, rooted firmly in pretty darn bulletproof chemistry.

Per my last post though, getting the titration information for the malt can be a struggle. There is a pretty good lot of info that can be used to generalize and make "malt classes" that can be selected by a user, but ultimately you would like to be able to purchase malt and look at the spec sheet to remove any doubt.

So it's a matter of being able to get the malt info, which unless provided by the maltster, would be a heavy lift for the average brewer. For the discerning brewer, however, who is not averse to some malt testing, I think the charge method would be the way to go.

My implementation tries to classify certain malts based on the titration info we do have, which amounts to about 43 different malts and various combinations of pH DI, a1, a2, and a3. It's not perfect. In fact it's a long way from perfect but it incorporates the right modelling for malt.

It's just the dang input data we need isn't there yet!

I guess real test data over time will confirm that

Won't that also put to the curb the likes of every other spreadsheet out their except the so called "Gen II"?

 

[maisch]

My "estimates" are rarely what I pay ... maybe I look like a sucker.

You're not a sucker except when you fall for that old sneezing trick.

 

[schematix]

Thank you for editing your post to the correct year.

Same resolution 2 years in a row, but people really started to abuse it bad in 2018.

 

[Big Monk]

I guess real test data over time will confirm that

I've tested the charge model sheet in my brewery. I does an admirable job when fed with decent data.

The backbone is rooted in all the known chemistry required. It's the input data that you need. That is fully attainable though. Even a DI pH and a single titration co-efficient will improve the output. Those are pretty easily measured.

With that said, I have had favorable results using the malt classes I created. Granted, I wasn't "dead on balls accurate", but it shows that we are moving in the right direction and that we are divorced from using color as an input. Using measured data from a few sources, along with a pH DI measurement I made for each malt used, I was able to get very good results.

Obviously that doesn't translate to everyone and i'm a very small data set.

The point is that it isn't a purely theoretical thing. We know the theoretical chemistry aspect of the model and when fed good data it gives us output that is empirically sound.

 

[Silver_Is_Money]

When you pay roughly $150 to $200 (or more) for a home heat loss calculation, what level of confidence would you place upon the findings?

How many thermal, air volume turnover rate, and air intrusion factors (etc...) are not being fully 100% considered by such a "scientific" calculation, or are being empirically modeled, estimated, guessed at, or outright kludged by a nigh-on witch-doctor who may tell you he has done this sort of work for perhaps 20-30 years or so? Yet before you invest in a home heating/cooling system a rather broad consensus of advice is that it generally makes real good sense to get such a heat loss calculation.

 

[Rodent]

so @maisch, are we to be lead into believing that you're in process of applying your graphic designer skills into a new "fully robust, easy to use, and certified for scientific accuracy" mashing application that meets all of the criteria you're demanding in this thread?

if not, why not? you apparently have all the answers for every software app that falls short of your identified standards

think of all the $$$$$$$$$$ you could make - you'd put all of them out of business in no time!

very smart pre-release marketing of you to initiate a thread like this

 

[cire]

In this case, larger breweries typically have laboratories. They have the ability to test their own malt or request from the maltster more detailed info about the malt.

In general, i'd say they arent using an Excel based water calculator or a homebrewing program as they probably have people on staff well versed in the mechanics of the mash.

Here in UK most breweries, large and small, run test rigs. I'm not sure if any run software for such purposes.

 

[vtipsy]

This thread should probably be in a different forum. Brew Science is supposed to be "In depth technical threads related to the biology and chemistry of home brewing."

I would suggest one of the following:

- General Homebrew Discussion
- Drunken Ramblings and Mindless Mumbling

 

[maisch]

I've tested the charge model sheet in my brewery. I does an admirable job when fed with decent data.

The claims are known we just need to know the accuracy statistics.

 

[Jayjay1976]

Is it good, right and correct (lawful?) even though these calculators aren't accurate?

The noted accuracy is just coincidence with pH meter measurements at the right time.

Free country (US) and I'm not labeling them snake oil but collecting money for years on something that wasn't, isn't and hasn't been verified as correct doesn't seem right.

It's a free market. They can choose to sell an inferior product and you can choose not to buy it. Lots of companies make big money selling junk, just look at Walmart.

 

[maisch]

so @maisch, are we to be lead into believing that you're in process of applying your graphic designer skills into a new "fully robust, easy to use, and certified for scientific accuracy" mashing application that meets all of the criteria you're demanding in this thread?

if not, why not? you apparently have all the answers for every software app that falls short of your identified standards

think of all the $$$$$$$$$$ you could make - you'd put all of them out of business in no time!

very smart pre-release marketing of you to initiate a thread like this

I don't believe I'm making demands nor do I have answers. I'm simply positing theoretical questions that get people all riled up

 

[Rodent]

in my line of work, this type of action is carried out by a Seymour (pronounced see-more) - one who is empowered only with the authority to say 'no'

a Seymore will exert significant effort into building their case and justifying their 'no' conclusion, often with discussion that is quite similar to content in this thread

 

[maisch]

in my line of work, this type of action is carried out by a Seymour (pronounced see-more) - one who is empowered only with the authority to say 'no'

a Seymore will exert significant effort into building their case and justifying their 'no' conclusion, often with discussion that is quite similar to content in this thread

Can you recommend a good psychologist? From the looks of your picture you're gonna need one... muahahahahahhaha

 

[SEndorf]

If and when the author of "sudzenwater" claims unequivocal accuracy. e.g. you dump in X and your Ph will be Y, I will forgo support.
In the mean-time, I'm willing for shell out a few bucks to support a program that's frequently upgraded and improved and claims a Ph estimate; not an absolute.
If that makes me fat, dumb and happy, so be it. So far, it's been reasonably accurate. I hardly think this is due to ignorant magic.

 

[Genuine]

Don’t even get me started on food advertisements. If there’s anything that’s not right in this world, it’s that.

 

[ajdelange]

An estimate is an informal idea based on limited information. And is not legally binding.

An estimate is determination as to what the state of a system is or will be based on available information about the system, a set of measurements and knowledge of the relationship of the observables to the system state variables and the "noise" i.e. things which impair the accuracy of the measurement. The estimate is determined in a way which optimizes according to some criterion such as minimum mean square error, maximum liklihood, maximum a-priori probabilty etc. What the legal considerations are concerning estimates I have no idea.

In the case of all of the programs we are talking about conclusions are drawn about the properties of the malt based on something observervsble such as the color or type, or on a set of measurements on the malt. The malt properties then go into a mathematical model. The models used by the various Gen I spreadsheets use several short cuts reflecting, in some cases, ignorance on the parts of the authors as to how the chemistry actually works and in others a desire to simplify the calculations. In some cases the errors are glaring based on theories or formulas that have little relevance to the actual chemistry. In others the errors are much better controlled. The general properties of malts and water are such that even the bad ones give reasonable estimates with amazing frequency - sort of like a broken clock giving very accurate estimate of time twice a day.

 

[ajdelange]

If and when the author of "sudzenwater" claims unequivocal accuracy. e.g. you dump in X and your Ph will be Y, I will forgo support.
In the mean-time, I'm willing for shell out a few bucks to support a program that's frequently upgraded and improved and claims a Ph estimate; not an absolute.
If that makes me fat, dumb and happy, so be it.

Sometimes it pays to look in the mirror. If you are fat dumb and happy then I am too. While writing some of this I realized that I have just spent big bucks on a car rated as second most unreliable car available in the US. But I love it.

 

[Moose_MI]

I don't believe I'm making demands nor do I have answers. I'm simply positing theoretical questions that get people all riled up

For 48 posts I had you pegged as a jerk for starting this thread. Then you had to go and and self identify as a jerk.

Now I like you....

BECAUSE I’M A JERK TOO!!!

Carry on good sir

 

[brewbama]

Martin doesn’t charge a dime to use Bru’n water. You can choose to contribute to get more features. If not you can get the free version. As in *FREE*. Your choice. No purchase required.

 

[Big Monk]

Martin doesn’t charge a dime to use Bru’n water. You can choose to contribute to get more features. If not you can get the free version. As in *FREE*. Your choice. No purchase required.

Good point.

 

[imasickboy]

My new years resolution for 2019 was to ignore people on HBT who attribute everything to confirmation bias.

I had no prior resolutions, but I just made one, and fulfilled it: click "ignore member" on the OP. So much belligerent nonsense the past few days. I feel better already.

 

[Moose_MI]

This would be fun if it was in Drunken Ramblings thread,
But not in the hallowed halls of the Brew Science thread.

Indeed sir, you are OUT OF ORDER!

Moderator...please move to appropriate thread so we can ponder why this was the most pressing matter for the OP to share with the internet at 12:14pm ET on a Friday.

We need to figure this out so it doesn’t happen again. Some of us have secondary’s to oxygenate.