Making money from Water Calculators

[schematix]

Thank you for editing your post to the correct year.

Same resolution 2 years in a row, but people really started to abuse it bad in 2018.

 

[Big Monk]

I guess real test data over time will confirm that

I've tested the charge model sheet in my brewery. I does an admirable job when fed with decent data.

The backbone is rooted in all the known chemistry required. It's the input data that you need. That is fully attainable though. Even a DI pH and a single titration co-efficient will improve the output. Those are pretty easily measured.

With that said, I have had favorable results using the malt classes I created. Granted, I wasn't "dead on balls accurate", but it shows that we are moving in the right direction and that we are divorced from using color as an input. Using measured data from a few sources, along with a pH DI measurement I made for each malt used, I was able to get very good results.

Obviously that doesn't translate to everyone and i'm a very small data set.

The point is that it isn't a purely theoretical thing. We know the theoretical chemistry aspect of the model and when fed good data it gives us output that is empirically sound.

 

[Silver_Is_Money]

When you pay roughly $150 to $200 (or more) for a home heat loss calculation, what level of confidence would you place upon the findings?

How many thermal, air volume turnover rate, and air intrusion factors (etc...) are not being fully 100% considered by such a "scientific" calculation, or are being empirically modeled, estimated, guessed at, or outright kludged by a nigh-on witch-doctor who may tell you he has done this sort of work for perhaps 20-30 years or so? Yet before you invest in a home heating/cooling system a rather broad consensus of advice is that it generally makes real good sense to get such a heat loss calculation.

 

[Rodent]

so @maisch, are we to be lead into believing that you're in process of applying your graphic designer skills into a new "fully robust, easy to use, and certified for scientific accuracy" mashing application that meets all of the criteria you're demanding in this thread?

if not, why not? you apparently have all the answers for every software app that falls short of your identified standards

think of all the $$$$$$$$$$ you could make - you'd put all of them out of business in no time!

very smart pre-release marketing of you to initiate a thread like this

 

[cire]

In this case, larger breweries typically have laboratories. They have the ability to test their own malt or request from the maltster more detailed info about the malt.

In general, i'd say they arent using an Excel based water calculator or a homebrewing program as they probably have people on staff well versed in the mechanics of the mash.

Here in UK most breweries, large and small, run test rigs. I'm not sure if any run software for such purposes.

 

[vtipsy]

This thread should probably be in a different forum. Brew Science is supposed to be "In depth technical threads related to the biology and chemistry of home brewing."

I would suggest one of the following:

- General Homebrew Discussion
- Drunken Ramblings and Mindless Mumbling

 

[maisch]

I've tested the charge model sheet in my brewery. I does an admirable job when fed with decent data.

The claims are known we just need to know the accuracy statistics.

 

[Jayjay1976]

Is it good, right and correct (lawful?) even though these calculators aren't accurate?

The noted accuracy is just coincidence with pH meter measurements at the right time.

Free country (US) and I'm not labeling them snake oil but collecting money for years on something that wasn't, isn't and hasn't been verified as correct doesn't seem right.

It's a free market. They can choose to sell an inferior product and you can choose not to buy it. Lots of companies make big money selling junk, just look at Walmart.

 

[maisch]

so @maisch, are we to be lead into believing that you're in process of applying your graphic designer skills into a new "fully robust, easy to use, and certified for scientific accuracy" mashing application that meets all of the criteria you're demanding in this thread?

if not, why not? you apparently have all the answers for every software app that falls short of your identified standards

think of all the $$$$$$$$$$ you could make - you'd put all of them out of business in no time!

very smart pre-release marketing of you to initiate a thread like this

I don't believe I'm making demands nor do I have answers. I'm simply positing theoretical questions that get people all riled up

 

[Rodent]

in my line of work, this type of action is carried out by a Seymour (pronounced see-more) - one who is empowered only with the authority to say 'no'

a Seymore will exert significant effort into building their case and justifying their 'no' conclusion, often with discussion that is quite similar to content in this thread

 

[maisch]

in my line of work, this type of action is carried out by a Seymour (pronounced see-more) - one who is empowered only with the authority to say 'no'

a Seymore will exert significant effort into building their case and justifying their 'no' conclusion, often with discussion that is quite similar to content in this thread

Can you recommend a good psychologist? From the looks of your picture you're gonna need one... muahahahahahhaha

 

[SEndorf]

If and when the author of "sudzenwater" claims unequivocal accuracy. e.g. you dump in X and your Ph will be Y, I will forgo support.
In the mean-time, I'm willing for shell out a few bucks to support a program that's frequently upgraded and improved and claims a Ph estimate; not an absolute.
If that makes me fat, dumb and happy, so be it. So far, it's been reasonably accurate. I hardly think this is due to ignorant magic.

 

[Genuine]

Don’t even get me started on food advertisements. If there’s anything that’s not right in this world, it’s that.

 

[ajdelange]

An estimate is an informal idea based on limited information. And is not legally binding.

An estimate is determination as to what the state of a system is or will be based on available information about the system, a set of measurements and knowledge of the relationship of the observables to the system state variables and the "noise" i.e. things which impair the accuracy of the measurement. The estimate is determined in a way which optimizes according to some criterion such as minimum mean square error, maximum liklihood, maximum a-priori probabilty etc. What the legal considerations are concerning estimates I have no idea.

In the case of all of the programs we are talking about conclusions are drawn about the properties of the malt based on something observervsble such as the color or type, or on a set of measurements on the malt. The malt properties then go into a mathematical model. The models used by the various Gen I spreadsheets use several short cuts reflecting, in some cases, ignorance on the parts of the authors as to how the chemistry actually works and in others a desire to simplify the calculations. In some cases the errors are glaring based on theories or formulas that have little relevance to the actual chemistry. In others the errors are much better controlled. The general properties of malts and water are such that even the bad ones give reasonable estimates with amazing frequency - sort of like a broken clock giving very accurate estimate of time twice a day.

 

[ajdelange]

If and when the author of "sudzenwater" claims unequivocal accuracy. e.g. you dump in X and your Ph will be Y, I will forgo support.
In the mean-time, I'm willing for shell out a few bucks to support a program that's frequently upgraded and improved and claims a Ph estimate; not an absolute.
If that makes me fat, dumb and happy, so be it.

Sometimes it pays to look in the mirror. If you are fat dumb and happy then I am too. While writing some of this I realized that I have just spent big bucks on a car rated as second most unreliable car available in the US. But I love it.

 

[Moose_MI]

I don't believe I'm making demands nor do I have answers. I'm simply positing theoretical questions that get people all riled up

For 48 posts I had you pegged as a jerk for starting this thread. Then you had to go and and self identify as a jerk.

Now I like you....

BECAUSE I’M A JERK TOO!!!

Carry on good sir

 

[brewbama]

Martin doesn’t charge a dime to use Bru’n water. You can choose to contribute to get more features. If not you can get the free version. As in *FREE*. Your choice. No purchase required.

 

[Big Monk]

Martin doesn’t charge a dime to use Bru’n water. You can choose to contribute to get more features. If not you can get the free version. As in *FREE*. Your choice. No purchase required.

Good point.

 

[imasickboy]

My new years resolution for 2019 was to ignore people on HBT who attribute everything to confirmation bias.

I had no prior resolutions, but I just made one, and fulfilled it: click "ignore member" on the OP. So much belligerent nonsense the past few days. I feel better already.

 

[Moose_MI]

This would be fun if it was in Drunken Ramblings thread,
But not in the hallowed halls of the Brew Science thread.

Indeed sir, you are OUT OF ORDER!

Moderator...please move to appropriate thread so we can ponder why this was the most pressing matter for the OP to share with the internet at 12:14pm ET on a Friday.

We need to figure this out so it doesn’t happen again. Some of us have secondary’s to oxygenate.

 

[maisch]

Let us all bash that big bad bully maisch who questioned the status quo. Down with maisch, Down with maisch, Down with maisch!! He's rude, he's crude and he's a jerk!! Down with maisch! Off with his head! Bash the maisch! Bash the maisch!

I had no prior resolutions, but I just made one, and fulfilled it: click "ignore member" on the OP. So much belligerent nonsense the past few days. I feel better already.

If you've really put me on ignore then you've taken the easy way out. Take a stand boy! Take a stand. Better yet, go watch Alice In Wonderland. A ravishing film!

 

[Moose_MI]

He's rude, he's crude and he's a jerk!! Down with maisch! Off with his head! Bash the maisch

OH how I love this game! I only wish it was in the correct field of play.

But how could you know? With no more than 3 weeks experience in our merry band.

As a fellow self identifying jerk I wish only to guide you kind sir...not bash...no no...never that

We’re a civilized bunch here...but there’s a group of us that dabble in Drunken Ramblings where uninformed subject matters are embraced...dare I say encouraged

Please..contribute..we need you there!

 

[Big Monk]

Let us all bash that big bad bully maisch who questioned the status quo. Down with maisch, Down with maisch, Down with maisch!! He's rude, he's crude and he's a jerk!! Down with maisch! Off with his head! Bash the maisch! Bash the maisch!



If you've really put me on ignore then you've taken the easy way out. Take a stand boy! Take a stand. Better yet, go watch Alice In Wonderland. A ravishing film!

It was certainly a semi-valid (if provocative) question. Can’t beat you up too bad about that.

They are all free programs though. So...

 

[Moose_MI]

That’s it...encourage him/her...I want to play more

 

[bob1852]

I don't think we're talking about software bugs here. We're talking about scientific ignorance or neglect if you will.

I place an order on Amazon, I get what I ordered.
I design a graphic in Illustrator, I get what I designed.
I want to know my mash pH, we'll get you close.... maybe in certain circumstances?

Order some of Five Star Chemicals "5.2" from Amazon and let me know if locks your mash in at pH 5.2.

Hint, it doesn't...

 

[Moose_MI]

^^^^ ouch, that had to hurt a little

 

[maisch]

It was certainly a semi-valid (if provocative) question. Can’t beat you up too bad about that.

They are all free programs though. So...

Free as in beer or free as in speech?

 

[Moose_MI]

My little china girl..you shouldn’t mess with me....

She says...

SHHHHHHH

 

[Big Monk]

This has definitely made the transition to drunken ramblings.

 

[Moose_MI]

BOOM. BOOM BOOM

Moderator?

 

[maisch]

Order some of Five Star Chemicals "5.2" from Amazon and let me know if locks your mash in at pH 5.2.

Hint, it doesn't...

Well technically a mono-sodium phosphate and disodium phosphate buffer made with phosphoric acid can buffer @5.2 pH but it would have to be made per the water and the malt being used.

https://www.thoughtco.com/make-a-phosphate-buffer-solution-603665

 

[Moose_MI]

Oooh...science stuff..love it

...blinded me with science...and failed me in geometry

 

[Big Monk]

Free as in beer or free as in speech?

Free as in free! No costy no money.

 

[bob1852]

Well technically mono-sodium phosphate has a pka of 6.8 so when added to the mash (more acidic) it would dissociate to release Na ions but also some phosphoric acid? Of course one needs to know how much is needed, not sure just a teaspoon would always suffice. I believe there's also another phosphate in there but don't have an ingredients list.

tl;dr

The product doesn't work as advertised...

 

[Moose_MI]

TL;DR, short for "too long; didn't read"

For those of us that are drinking...a lot....often

 

[maisch]

tl;dr

The product doesn't work as advertised...

A phosphate buffer does work under the situations for which it's designed to work. I'm not defending their marketing (that it work for all mashes) as in general you'd have to design a phosphate buffer for each and every mash.

https://www.thoughtco.com/make-a-phosphate-buffer-solution-603665

 

[bob1852]

Well technically a mono-sodium phosphate and disodium phosphate buffer made with phosphoric acid can buffer @5.2 pH but it would have to be made per the water and the malt being used.

https://www.thoughtco.com/make-a-phosphate-buffer-solution-603665

Technically or not, the product says it will lock in the mash at pH 5.2, at a dosage of 1 Tablespoon per 5 gallons of finished beer, regardless of grist or water type.

It's garbage and it's sold in nearly every homebrew store and all over the internet.

They're selling a product that doesn't work as advertised.

Last I checked, Martin still advises people to actually test pH (and make adjustments as needed) and not just rely on his calculator, as he readily admits there's lots of variables that coming into play.

Five Star Chemical doesn't even bother with such disclaimers....

 

[day_trippr]

fyi, the DRAMM forum has standards and this troll piece doesn't make the cut...

 

[maisch]

Technically or not, the product says it will lock in the mash at pH 5.2, at a dosage of 1 Tablespoon per 5 gallons of finished beer, regardless of grist or water type.

It's garbage and it's sold in nearly every homebrew store and all over the internet.

They're selling a product that doesn't work as advertised.

Last I checked, Martin still advises people to actually test pH (and make adjustments as needed) and not just rely on his calculator, as he readily admits there's lots of variables that coming into play.

Five Star Chemical doesn't even bother with such disclaimers....

Yup, their marketing is incorrect and the buffer would have to made according the alkalinity and acidity of the water and the mash.

Never used it myself but might have to pick up a tub and see what it does. Why don't you send me yours?

 

[mongoose33]

It seems most see it as a donation for research.

I wonder if the "I got a water calculator and now my beer is great!" crowd is simply confirmation bias.

Are there any commercial breweries trusting their wares to these software?

I'm not reading any further before I reply to this.

I can't figure out why this is a burr under your saddle. I've donated to BrunWater and to EZWater. Not a lot, but as a thank you for having taken the time and effort to make a spreadsheet, and then making it available.

*******

I'm a scientist by training. One thing good scientists know is that measurements are key to studying anything. And sometimes, they're imperfect. I can't believe anyone would think that these spreadsheets would produce perfect results given the limits in measuring everything from the malt to the amount of water additions.

So I put in 3 milliliters of Lactic Acid. Am I perfect in my use of a pipette to do that? No. Measurement error. How does the spreadsheet account for that? It can't. And you can't hold it, or the authors, responsible for what is beyond their control.

How about the malt? Do I know exactly how it will perform, and what's more, does the spreadsheet know that? No. And no. At best I'm going to get an average of what often happens.

How am I doing measuring the salts I add? Or is the water exactly, perfectly, the volume I think it is? How about the quality of the RO water I'm using?

Yeah. You want perfection out of something that cannot be made perfect.

*********

You ask if the "my beer is great" crowd is simply engaging in confirmation bias. I don't know.

What I do know is those spreadsheets give me a level of consistency in my brews, and while I may be off a tenth or even two tenths in pH, it's not enough to matter. I don't expect perfection because the inputs aren't perfect.

And as far as confirmation bias: I have one main criterion for measuring the quality of my beer, besides if I like it. I see if those drinking it have more than one. When they do--and they do a lot--that means they like it. I had two people, literally today, ask to buy my beer.

In fact, I have a local entrepreneur where I live who wants me to brew for that establishment and to sell that beer.

You can call it confirmation bias if you want. I call it excellent beer produced in part by my use of water spreadsheets. And I thank the authors for being part of what I'm able to produce.