i just plain don't believe this

[Mike_A]

I do not agree that the sample size is sufficient to cover all demographics. 1000 people is not a very large sample at all, and their confidence interval is +/-4%, which is to say in reality beer could be as high as 40% and wine as low as 31%. For their sample means to be so close (36% vs 35%) I would not settle for any less than a +/-1% interval. This would require a substantially larger sample size (couldn't tell you how large without knowing the standard deviation of the initial sample) but I would reckon it's in the neighborhood of 5,000-10,000 people.

Just talking statistics here, not facts. I find it funny that lower income and non-white participants showed preference for beer - I attribute this to the cost / quality ratio of cheap beer vs. cheap wine. I'd definitely say BMC products are still of higher overall quality than, say, Boone's Farm but that's kinda comparing apples to oranges.

 

[emjay]

1000 people is most certainly a large enough sample, and is typically considered the gold standard for polling, as it can draw fairly meaningful conclusions for a population of (theoretically) infinite size.

Of course, 1% is within the margin of error. Which is why they referred to it as a tie, because statistically, it is. The only reason you want to see it within that 1% (ignoring the fact that it makes no sense to base the parameters off the RESULTS) is because you have a horse in this race. The poll is not meant to find and declare a "winner", it's meant to get a meaningful idea of yearly trends in the consumption of various types of alcohol, and it accomplishes that.

The only thing "bogus" here is people's interpretation of what the poll is supposed to mean.

 

[weirdboy]

1000 people is most certainly a large enough sample, and is typically considered the gold standard for polling, as it can draw fairly meaningful conclusions for a population of (theoretically) infinite size.

Right, but they are doing telephone polling on people's landlines. This is the part that gets me. I don't know many people in my peer group who still own a landline telephone. So right there I feel like my group probably is not accurately represented in the poll.

 

[emjay]

Right, but they are doing telephone polling on people's landlines. This is the part that gets me. I don't know many people in my peer group who still own a landline telephone. So right there I feel like my group probably is not accurately represented in the poll.

You misunderstood me. 40% of the sample were cell phone numbers.

 

[motobrewer]

i'd buy that. i don't own a landline. none of my friends (either house owners or renters) own one.

heck, my parents don't even have one anymore. and they had dial-up until about 5 years ago. cable tv was 4yrs.

all i know is, in my age group (late 20s), beer is ex-PLO-ding. none of them, including chicks, are into wine much.

 

[motobrewer]

You misunderstood me. 40% of the sample were cell phone numbers.

they can do that!?

 

[scottland]

Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted July 7-10, 2011, with a random sample of 1,016 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia.

For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

For results based on the sample of 666 adults who drink alcoholic beverages, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points.

666 people isn't anywhere NEAR enough to consider this poll accurate.

 

[emjay]

666 people isn't anywhere NEAR enough to consider this poll accurate.

Over 1,000 were polled - 666 is just the number who said they drank.

Regardless, "accuracte" is a relative, if not totally meaningless term (at least on its own like that) when it comes to polling. They are clear about their methodology, confidence intervals, margins of error, etc. This poll is not being used to make further assumptions, support any arguments, or to influence public policy. It simply is what it is, and Gallup is not misrepresenting it in the least - it's people HERE that are drawing inferences that they shouldn't be.

It never ceases to amaze me the statisticians that come out of the woodwork literally *every single time* a poll is posted in an online forum, acting as if they understand the science of polling better than the folks at Gallup.

 

[emjay]

they can do that!?

Relax, no shady stuff going on

They use computer software that keeps dialing randomly generated numbers, most of which don't even work at all.

 

[motobrewer]

the chief statistician in my office has this written on his whiteboard:

"being a statistician means never having to say anything for certain"

 

[motobrewer]

Relax, no shady stuff going on

They use computer software that keeps dialing randomly generated numbers, most of which don't even work at all.

isn't that wardialing? which i thought was illegal

 

[Homercidal]

Looks like you all missed this very important remark:

"Adults with no college education and those in lower-income households are also much more likely to favor beer."

So take THAT! You ignorant fools! HAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!! hey, wait a minute....

 

[unionrdr]

Sounds like you need to think that one trough some more,lolz. We used to like wine,made wine for years. Just like beer mo betta now. Ok,so I'm not rich...but I really enjoy this new version of an old hobby. Who cares if those wine snobs think beer is a peasant's drink? We know better. Revel in that,they're coming around to realizing that beer melds with the flavors of food. Wine can only contrast it. So HAH! turn,guard,perry,thrust!

 

[supermoth]

According to their graphs, the only time wine exceeded beer in the last ten years was in '05, which, coincidentally, is right after the movie Sideways was released. I remember going wine tasting some time after that, and the pour-person told us that their sales of merlot had dropped around 30% since the movie came out. People are impressionable to mass media. I wouldn't be surprised if something similar is having an effect this year.

 

[motobrewer]

it's true. i think the only reason i'm drinking so much wine lately is solely because i've been watching James and Oz's big wine adventure.

i wish i were kidding.

 

[tchuklobrau]

it appears we poor folk love us some beer. dont get me wrong i love wine. but my beer is cheaper.

 

[Yooper]

it appears we poor folk love us some beer. dont get me wrong i love wine. but my beer is cheaper.

For me, I'm a "beer snob" but not a wine snob, so I'm happy with a $5 bottle of wine, but I'd be happier with a $18 beer four-pack! Wine is cheaper for me, for sure!

 

[Yooper]

Looks like you all missed this very important remark:

"Adults with no college education and those in lower-income households are also much more likely to favor beer."

So take THAT! You ignorant fools! HAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!! hey, wait a minute....

Yah, der hey, we been to college! Bot of us doncha know. Only one of us has a master'd degree, dough. Bob is a phud. Or I dink dat's whot dat phd stands for.

 

[Homercidal]

Someone's been into Da Yooper's CD collection again!

One sure way to lower your IQ in minutes!