I have stopped using flameout hops entirely for a couple of reasons.
One, those hops start in boiling water and will contribute a some bitterness before they cool down. How much can be estimated, but it's a pain in the rear. Check out this article, which I only stumbled on yesterday.
https://alchemyoverlord.wordpress.c...-ibu-measurement-especially-for-late-hopping/
Two, I just want flavor and aroma from the late hops anyway.
So, now what I do is figure out a specific whirlpool temperature, chill as fast as possible to that temperature, and then add some hops. I'll even use the PID controller on my electric kettle to keep the temperature where I want it. It's a matter of seconds to punch the buttons, and it's one more variable that I can easily control on repeat brews.
OK, so what is the whirlpool temperature? Well, I also stumbled on another article by the same author that tries to answer the question of how much alpha acid you convert at a given temperature. We know it drops off fast, but how fast?
https://alchemyoverlord.wordpress.com/2016/03/06/an-analysis-of-sub-boiling-hop-utilization/
Figure 2 has what I wanted to see:
Before I found this chart, I had been whirlpooling at 165F for 30 minutes. I knew I was adding some bitterness, but with this table I can see that I have been converting about 12% of the whirlpool hop alpha acids this way, as compared to the same time at boil. In my last brew, the 3 oz whirlpool hops that I used added approximately 10 IBU. Next time, I will try a much lower temperature with a similar hop load and see how that tastes.
By the way, once you figure out what your whirlpool protocol is, and what conversion percentage it provides, you can enter that into Beersmith under Options > Bitterness. (The default value is 50%, and Beersmith says this corresponds to 194F, in agreement with the chart.)
The articles above are very clear that there is more to bitterness than alpha acid conversion, so this method still has plenty of errors and approximations. I guess those Magnum hops I added at the start of boil are still isomerizing as the temperature drops, too.
But now I feel like I am waving one hand instead of both of them when I try to figure out what whirlpool additions do to my bitterness.
Like
@Denny said, it's all a house of cards anyway since the Tinseth equation was built for a different job.
And
@kylevester is spot on about oxygen. As soon as I started doing low-oxygen transfers to the keg, my hoppy beers showed an immediate and dramatic improvement. They still fade out over weeks in the keg because I am not religious about the practices, but I have found a happy medium where they taste great for long enough to blow the keg.