Also, Talldan, I did a quick search for "money" on the forums and got 33k results. A search for "quality" only yielded 28k results. I didn't go past the first page of results for either but it was surprising to me none the less. Oddly even "ruin" only turned up 7k hits. While "help" yielded 180k hits. Sometimes the things we experience seem to take more precedence in our mind then the objective truths of the situation. Not a dig at you, just an observation on what we both assumed to be true.
Well, here's how I account for my homebrew budget:
I've spent nearly $1,000 on brewing equipment. Carboys, pots, fermentation temp control cooler and all sorts of misc hoses, parts, etc.
I've spent nearly $1,000 on serving. Upright 4 tap keezer, kegs, hardware, regulators, etc.
I've certainly spent more than I had to for convenience and some things that I just thought were cool, but I'm still on the low end compared to many people here.
Now, before i started homebrewing, i was buying sixtels of craft beer for ~$110. On average, i figure I spent $50 per batch on my extract kit batches, and $25 per batch on my all grain (bulk buying base malt and popular hops, doing some yeast propagation.) In the 21 months since I started, I've brewed 4 extract kits and 17 all grain batches. Quick arithmetic says that I've spent $1685 less on ingredients than I would have on sixtels of craft beer. I need to do 4 more all-grain batches to break even on what I've spent on homebrewing equipment.
Now, a hobby that a net cost to me of $315 over almost 2 years is pretty damn cheap. If you figure I spent 9 hours per batch (reasonable, maybe even low estimate for all-grain given the time I'll spend from planning to yeast starter to kegging) that means it has cost me $1.66/hr to homebrew and that figure is dropping quickly. On top of that, I've had countless hours on this forum, and with local homebrew clubs.
However, to save money, two years to break even with this is terrible. Yes, I could certainly have spent less on my brewing equipment, but there's plenty of it that I spent just to save time on my brew day. Even if you reduce my equipment to what's needed to brew all grain with bulk purchased base malt, there's still at least $500 there.
If you're looking to save money, 8 (5 gallon) batches a year should keep beer in the fridge. Much beyond that is brewing to drink more and not to save money for the purpose of this estimate. Let's say that you intend to get 5 years of use out of your $500 of equipment (reasonable).
Equipment: $500
Ingredients: $25 * 8 (batches per year) * 5 (years) = $1000
Time: 9hours * 8 * 5 = 360 hours
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Cost for 5 years of homebrewed beer: $1500 + 360 hours
and for buying craft beer:
$80 (two cases of reasonable craft beer, equivalent to a homebrewed batch) * 8 * 5 = $3,200
So: ($3,200-$1,500)/360=$4.72/hr
That's much less than minimum wage. Here in Illinois, that less than tipped minimum wage. On top of that, I think my numbers are probably pretty generous and that rate would likely be lower. Everyone's situation is different, but personally, that's not worth my time if i didn't enjoy brewing. You can make more than that mowing lawns on weekends, picking up one shift a week as a bartender, or many other ways.
We're also ignoring that fact that brewing is a learned skill. With no time spent learning the process, you're likely to end up with a couple of dumper batches in the first year which will make your numbers even worse.
I'll admit, those numbers, with minimal upfront investment are more favorable for homebrewing than I thought. I'm sure people will argue many of the points above, but it seems to me to be a reasonable set of assumptions.
If you currently drink two beers a week at a restaurant or bar, you could save just as much by having those two beers a week at home instead. (Assuming a beer at a bar or restaurant costs $3 more than the one at home.)
So, I'll stick to my answer. As a hobby, homebrewing is phenomenal. You can do something you enjoy, learn more about beer and you can buy cool brewing toys with the money you save on beer. But as a method to strictly save yourself money, it's not great. Just drink less beer and drink cheaper beer and you'll save more.
I can honestly say, at this point in time, my brewing gear has saved us a bunch of money.
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