"Barley shortages from climate change could mean less beer worldwide"

[day_trippr]

Well this certainly puts a kink in my survival plan...

https://arstechnica.com/science/201...limate-change-could-mean-less-beer-worldwide/

 

[bracconiere]

being a home malter myself, i couldn't finish past this: "Brewers start the process by exposing grain to moisture so that it germinates, converting the starches into sugars. When the sugar levels are just right, they roast the grains, resulting in a malt for kicking off the fermentation into beer."

And it sounds like an excuse to jack up the price more...like a gangster drug lord, they want easy money!

If i can still get barley for livestock, which is less important to me as a semi-vegetarian, i can malt it and make beer!

Whoa, slow down, is that a snow storm i see coming?

 

[Northern_Brewer]

And it sounds like an excuse to jack up the price more...like a gangster drug lord, they want easy money!

It's just the market - less supply and same demand, means prices go up. If you think you can undercut them, you are welcome to start farming barley....

If i can still get barley for livestock, which is less important to me as a semi-vegetarian, i can malt it and make beer!

Won't taste as good or be as clear as beer made with proper malting barley though. Current premium of malting barley over feed barley is at the highest for 7 years after the drought this summer - winter barley was OK, but spring barley suffered in many areas - overall harvest was down 10%, but some places saw <50% of usual yield.

 

[day_trippr]

fwiw, that statement you could barely finish is not inaccurate...

Cheers!

 

[bracconiere]

fwiw, that statement you could barely finish is not inaccurate...

Cheers!

is that at me? don't know? anyway in case it is: "Brewers start the process by exposing grain to moisture so that it germinates, converting the starches into sugars. When the sugar levels are just right, they roast the grains, resulting in a malt for kicking off the fermentation into beer."

So actually, you know....i had an explanation written. just to say sprouting barley creates enzymes for mashing not sugars!...and NO in malting you don't wait for the sugars to be just right? unless your making crystal malt? and mashing in the kernel...

and as far as taste, i recently bought a bag of store bought malt. briess i think. and i like my homemade better! i regeret spedning the $61 on a 50lb bag....

just like original homebrewers, saying store bought is flavorless water, and i saw this quote somewhere. "If i can make my own beer for 20 cents a quart...i should be able too!"

So if you can't keep up with a crack addict blowing snow in your face, have fun with $30+ twelve packs! but myself? i'm looking into koji, rice, flour, corn...Hell people like soy beans, why not! i don't want to be herded by a fast thinking mind control freak...

and i'd like to finish that this sounds angry in text, but i swear i'm not...i'm just drinking beer thinking about what the future holds for me...

it seems like everytime i find something i enjoy, everyone wants to use it to take advantage of me! and i always praise god, as long as i can eat? i'll be able to drink!

 

[Beewrangler63]

I shared that article with my kid and then offered to buy his Robobrew

 

[MaxStout]

Uh-oh, this thread is going to end up in the Debate section...

No doubt, climate change will impact barley production in its current capacity, in its present growing regions. This projection of a "barley shortage" in the future appears based on the fact that, right now, not many grain farmers grow it. There is plenty of arable land suitable for growing barley, yet barley comprises only a small percentage of cereal grain production. The northern plains in the US and Canada, and regions of northern Europe could easily produce more barley than the world would ever need. But it depends on market forces down the road--i.e., would barley be attractive to producers who might otherwise plant other cereal grains?

 

[day_trippr]

The acrospire develops because enzymes are breaking the raw kernel starches into usable sugars. No sugars, no acrospire growth. The maltster stops the growth process through the application of heat - kilning or stewing or roasting - whatever - at a determined point - which one could rationalize as when "the sugar levels are just right", though those levels might be quite low...

So the statement is not wrong, imo..

Cheers!

 

[bracconiere]

I shared that article with my kid and then offered to buy his Robobrew

glad to see it's got more comments...just reminds me of a bad teenage memory. traveling with my mom, going into a shop run by an obvious (to me tweaker), and feeling like i should have said something. because she left with arms full of crap, and was saying afterwards, boy he sure seemed like he had a lot of energy!

 

[bracconiere]

The acrospire develops because enzymes are breaking the raw kernel starches into usable sugars. No sugars, no acrospire growth. The maltster stops the growth process through the application of heat - kilning or stewing or roasting - whatever - at a determined point - which one could rationalize as when "the sugar levels are just right", though those levels might be quite low...

So the statement is not wrong, imo..

Cheers!

say what? and ..but no you sprout the grain to get it to think it's going to need the calories from the starch, so that it makes enzymes...so that you can use it in a mash..that's why you have to dry the grain pretty dry before kilning so that you don't denature the enzymes....

and if your making crystal malt and WANT sugar, to caramelize...then you sprout and heat it to 150f to mash in the kernel while it's still wet..

and if malting makes sugar and not enzymes, then whats up with adjuncts!

 

[Jayjay1976]

Christ, just euthanize me now. I have no interest in moping around this DMV without any beer.

 

[day_trippr]

Sigh....Chew a pinch of base malt. If you don't detect some sweetness there, you should stick to store bought beer...

Cheers!

 

[bracconiere]

Christ, just euthanize me now. I have no interest in moping around this DMV without any beer.

I thought in this DMV they had free beer on tap, at all times? and AAA tipsy tow service?

Sigh....Chew a pinch of base malt. If you don't detect some sweetness there, you should stick to store bought beer...

Cheers!

Then how can i use malt to make steamed rice, or something with a similar gelatizination temp like wheat sweet too?

 

[bracconiere]

https://www.homebrewtalk.com/forum/threads/whats-the-point-in-malting.657058/

here i go!

 

[day_trippr]

Gonna have to investigate that bozo bin function...

 

[bracconiere]

Sigh....Chew a pinch of base malt. If you don't detect some sweetness there, you should stick to store bought beer...

Cheers!

Gonna have to investigate that bozo bin function...

Store bought beer!? InBev? my immortal enemy, just like all drug dealers! i'll add table sugar to swamp water first!

and, bozo bin?

 

[SEndorf]

Sure.... Last week it was chocolate that is going to disappear due to climate change....

 

[AkTom]

B.S. barley shortage...

 

[wyowolf]

Goebbles himself would be in awe of every single thing being effected by global warming.... literally every other day a story comes out about something or other because of it...

 

[BobBailey]

Thought I posted this earlier?
Henny Penny told us many years ago that the sky was falling in. Just looked up and it's still up there. Doubt seriously that it will happen in our lifetime.

 

[grampamark]

Uh-oh, this thread is going to end up in the Debate section...

No doubt, climate change will impact barley production in its current capacity, in its present growing regions. This projection of a "barley shortage" in the future appears based on the fact that, right now, not many grain farmers grow it. There is plenty of arable land suitable for growing barley, yet barley comprises only a small percentage of cereal grain production. The northern plains in the US and Canada, and regions of northern Europe could easily produce more barley than the world would ever need. But it depends on market forces down the road--i.e., would barley be attractive to producers who might otherwise plant other cereal grains?

I'm a grain farmer. We've grown malting barley for years, but for the last five years, or so, the price hasn't been high enough to make barley economically attractive. We’ve been growing more pulse crops (legumes, like field peas, lentils and garbanzo beans) instead.

Max is correct. There are, literally, millions of acres on the northern plains and in southern Canada whch are well suited to barley production. Malt barley has always been a specialty crop; far more acres have been planted to other cereals, pulses and oilseed crops in that region. But, if the demand, and corresponding higher prices, materialize, there will be plenty of barley for brewing.

 

[SEndorf]

As the wonderful author Michael Chrichton says, there's a great deal of money to be made by trying to scare the **** outta people..

 

[wyowolf]

http://www.aei.org/publication/18-s...irst-earth-day-in-1970-expect-more-this-year/

Because Scientists are never ever ever wrong...

 

[kh54s10]

We will all just have to switch to wine making when they plant orange trees and banana trees in the upper mid-west.......

 

[MT's AZ Ale Haus]

Here are my $.02.

- We are approaching 7000 breweries in the U.S. which is near pre-prohibition range
- Craft beer popularity is skyrocketing
- Home brewing popularity is skyrocketing
-Grain production has not responded

So that leaves that little supply and demand curve which indicates prices will go up.

With an increase in price, it gives incentive to farmers to grow more grain which will increase supply, thus stabilizing the price.

It will still be cheaper to brew than buy, and breweries can't jack their prices too high at the risk of losing customers.

Here's a thought, local brewery supply stores could buy back dried used grain and sell it to local farmers and use that to offset rising grain prices and keep their prices competitive. Local farm to table establishments buying grain fed meats could use the "local organic" moniker to entice their customers.... its a WIN, WIN, WIN, WIN gor everyone [emoji119]

 

[kh54s10]

Here are my $.02.

- We are approaching 7000 breweries in the U.S. which is near pre-prohibition range
- Craft beer popularity is skyrocketing
- Home brewing popularity is skyrocketing
-Grain production has not responded

So that leaves that little supply and demand curve which indicates prices will go up.

With an increase in price, it gives incentive to farmers to grow more grain which will increase supply, thus stabilizing the price.

It will still be cheaper to brew than buy, and breweries can't jack their prices too high at the risk of losing customers.

Here's a thought, local brewery supply stores could buy back dried used grain and sell it to local farmers and use that to offset rising grain prices and keep their prices competitive. Local farm to table establishments buying grain fed meats could use the "local organic" moniker to entice their customers.... its a WIN, WIN, WIN, WIN gor everyone [emoji119]

What I have read about beer production is that the 7000 craft breweries still produde a quite small percentage of the total amount beer. And that the big breweries have lost some demand which is in total more than the 7000 other breweries provide. Thus a drop in total production. I could be wrong but don't think so.

There have been droughts that have hurt the grain production, but that happens all the time. If there is a shortage it is probably caused by the farmers not getting a good return on barley compared to other crops, so they don't plant enough.

As far as using spent grain for animal feed, in a lot of places it is already done. But I don't think you can make a big dent in the cost of feed that way since most of the nutrition in the spent grain is stripped in the brewing process.

 

[day_trippr]

I believe there has been some small decline in world-wide beer consumption due to wine/spirits/mixed drink defections, but the "craft" share hit another all-time high in 2017, mostly at the expense of macros.

Beyond that, I believe home brewing peaked at least a couple years ago and has been in decline since. It worries me wrt my lhbs, where I dumped a buck-fitty today on bags of grain, some specialty malts and a pair of CO2 cylinder refills. I would totally miss the 10-minutes-away convenience if the hb market shrinkage causes Strange Brew to quit...

Cheers!

 

[deadwolfbones]

Goebbles himself would be in awe of every single thing being effected by global warming.... literally every other day a story comes out about something or other because of it...

That's because it affects virtually everything.

 

[madscientist451]

If you use static analysis you can make lots of dire predictions. But farmers and agribusiness use a different approach. If the weather turns dry and the market will support the cost, irrigation will be used. Also, as prices for any one commodity rise, more producers will enter the market, that's simple economics 101. Journalism these days is all about an agenda and getting a specific message out there. Good reporting and not taking sides is a pipe-dream that probably never existed when a large (gullible) audience was available. But as the song goes, "in heaven there ain't no beer, that's why we drink it here..." its just better to drink up, be happy and avoid worrying too much.

 

[Lefou]

We will all just have to switch to wine making when they plant orange trees and banana trees in the upper mid-west.......

That's just the ticket.
While they're bemoaning the barley crop, some of the more ingenuous and motivated will be planting sugar cane and making rum.
Eff 'em, mai tais and pina coladas for the win.