ericbw
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I think you either explained or hinted at all of that in your original post. There are just a ton of threads or comments on this forum where people want to "go pro" after 2 batches. It's an industry that doesn't make it easy for small start ups. Just like if you had $100 million, you would still have a hard time starting a small bank. The industry, even with farm brewing, has hurdles.
But what you described was buying property with a barn and getting the license, then selling at farmers markets. That hurdle is very low. Even with a 1bbl system, you could probably break even, depending on how well-trafficked the market is and if you can do it year round.
1bbl gets you 60 growlers plus samples. If you fill a growler for $15, you net $900 per batch, then subtract the ingredients (cost of goods sold). Then subtract the cost of your market spot and transportation to the market plus any paid help. Maybe you're ok with breaking even and having fun at this.
Amortize your equipment costs over the life of the equipment and account for licensing, inspections, and maintenance to the property.
When you're regularly selling out of beer at the markets, then it's time to open a tap room for growler fills - not a tasting room, just a place for people to fill a growler on the way home from work on Thursdays and Fridays.
When that is successful and you're routinely getting foot traffic, then you build out your tasting room and open for a few hours Thursdays, Fridays, and Saturday afternoons.
The sale of the actual growlers, pint glasses, and other swag helps to underwrite the sales of the beer and build your brand.
If you have a scenic space, you can also rent it out for private events (weddings, etc.). You work with others in that industry (event planning, wedding planning, catering, etc.) and that adds to your bottom line with little cost.
Fill in the numbers, and that's the (very!) rough outline of a business plan. Each step has a checkpoint where you figure out if it's working. You decide then to stop, continue as-is, or advance. Obviously, you need to drill down into all of these areas and check for feasibility.
I think the problem is not just having a business plan, but also being willing to accept the answers when you come to them. And it might be that you're not profitable, but you're breaking even.
But what you described was buying property with a barn and getting the license, then selling at farmers markets. That hurdle is very low. Even with a 1bbl system, you could probably break even, depending on how well-trafficked the market is and if you can do it year round.
1bbl gets you 60 growlers plus samples. If you fill a growler for $15, you net $900 per batch, then subtract the ingredients (cost of goods sold). Then subtract the cost of your market spot and transportation to the market plus any paid help. Maybe you're ok with breaking even and having fun at this.
Amortize your equipment costs over the life of the equipment and account for licensing, inspections, and maintenance to the property.
When you're regularly selling out of beer at the markets, then it's time to open a tap room for growler fills - not a tasting room, just a place for people to fill a growler on the way home from work on Thursdays and Fridays.
When that is successful and you're routinely getting foot traffic, then you build out your tasting room and open for a few hours Thursdays, Fridays, and Saturday afternoons.
The sale of the actual growlers, pint glasses, and other swag helps to underwrite the sales of the beer and build your brand.
If you have a scenic space, you can also rent it out for private events (weddings, etc.). You work with others in that industry (event planning, wedding planning, catering, etc.) and that adds to your bottom line with little cost.
Fill in the numbers, and that's the (very!) rough outline of a business plan. Each step has a checkpoint where you figure out if it's working. You decide then to stop, continue as-is, or advance. Obviously, you need to drill down into all of these areas and check for feasibility.
I think the problem is not just having a business plan, but also being willing to accept the answers when you come to them. And it might be that you're not profitable, but you're breaking even.