Ol' Reliable versus Something New--I'm puzzled

[mongoose33]

Before I get into this, I believe that people like what they like, and they're not wrong to like what they like.

But I've been trying to reconcile two approaches to drinking beer, and would like to initiate a conversation on this.

* * * * *​

There appears to be two types (bear with me) of beer drinkers: those who like to stick with what they like, and those who want to keep trying new beers.

I tend to be more the former, and my reasoning is this: Suppose I have a beer that is just about the best thing I've ever had. In the distribution of all beers I've ever tasted, this one is at the right end of the distributional tail, i.e., way out in the right tail of the normal distribution.

Now, among other things, I'm a statistician. I know that, given regression to the mean, the next beer I drink after the exceptional one is virtually guaranteed to be a lesser beer, one I won't enjoy as much.

So, knowing that, and knowing how much I just enjoyed this exceptional beer, I'll just order the same thing again. Why order something else when I know it's impossible that it will meet or exceed what I just had?

And yet, I have friends who will always try something different. It baffles me, honestly, but I keep coming back to my belief: you're not wrong to like what you like, and if you like to keep trying new things, well, you do you as long as I can keep doing me.


But I've been wondering about this for a while. In October we took a 1-week brewery tour trip to the northeast US. Among other places we stopped at Maine Brewing, where I had their Peeper beer. Tied for the best commercial beer I've ever had (with Assassin from Toppling Goliath). You'd better believe I wanted another Peeper.


The only explanation I've come up with for this disparity of approach is this: palate fatigue. That's an issue if you eat the same thing day after day, meal after meal. You become immune to the flavors that originally attracted you to the food, and it becomes analogous to eating gruel at that point.

I'm a little bit taste-blind (sort of like color blindness). Some flavors I just don't get--like tomato sauce. Ever see someone eating Spaghetti and it's like they're having a religious experience, they're enjoying it so much? Tastes like gruel to me.

And some flavors and meals I'll just keep having. I have oatmeal with a little brown sugar and a banana for breakfast. Every day.

So what I'm wondering is this: for those of you who want to keep trying something new, do you get a sense of palate fatigue when you get to the end of a glass of beer, whether it's good or not, such that you need to switch to something else for which you don't have palate fatigue (yet)?

This all just baffles me. I like beer, I'm good at brewing it, friends want to buy it at commercial prices, a local bar wanted to sell it, and apparently the flavor profiles I produce resonate well with others. But once I have a very good beer, I want to stick with it.

So--why do you think there are two types of beer drinkers (yeah, I know, but run with it for a bit, if you would). Why do some people constantly want something new, and others stick with Ol' Reliable?


PS: I'll get a flight at a bar if they're offered. I do try new things. Heck, when we visited Jack's Abby during our East Coast trip, I had a flight where all four beers were terrific. They know how to do lagers there. I was tempted to just order the same flight again. But generally, if I can find a good one, I'm sticking to it.

 

[SaisonMan]

Before I get into this, I believe that people like what they like, and they're not wrong to like what they like.

But I've been trying to reconcile two approaches to drinking beer, and would like to initiate a conversation on this.

* * * * *​

There appears to be two types (bear with me) of beer drinkers: those who like to stick with what they like, and those who want to keep trying new beers.

I tend to be more the former, and my reasoning is this: Suppose I have a beer that is just about the best thing I've ever had. In the distribution of all beers I've ever tasted, this one is at the right end of the distributional tail, i.e., way out in the right tail of the normal distribution.

Now, among other things, I'm a statistician. I know that, given regression to the mean, the next beer I drink after the exceptional one is virtually guaranteed to be a lesser beer, one I won't enjoy as much.

So, knowing that, and knowing how much I just enjoyed this exceptional beer, I'll just order the same thing again. Why order something else when I know it's impossible that it will meet or exceed what I just had?

And yet, I have friends who will always try something different. It baffles me, honestly, but I keep coming back to my belief: you're not wrong to like what you like, and if you like to keep trying new things, well, you do you as long as I can keep doing me.


But I've been wondering about this for a while. In October we took a 1-week brewery tour trip to the northeast US. Among other places we stopped at Maine Brewing, where I had their Peeper beer. Tied for the best commercial beer I've ever had (with Assassin from Toppling Goliath). You'd better believe I wanted another Peeper.


The only explanation I've come up with for this disparity of approach is this: palate fatigue. That's an issue if you eat the same thing day after day, meal after meal. You become immune to the flavors that originally attracted you to the food, and it becomes analogous to eating gruel at that point.

I'm a little bit taste-blind (sort of like color blindness). Some flavors I just don't get--like tomato sauce. Ever see someone eating Spaghetti and it's like they're having a religious experience, they're enjoying it so much? Tastes like gruel to me.

And some flavors and meals I'll just keep having. I have oatmeal with a little brown sugar and a banana for breakfast. Every day.

So what I'm wondering is this: for those of you who want to keep trying something new, do you get a sense of palate fatigue when you get to the end of a glass of beer, whether it's good or not, such that you need to switch to something else for which you don't have palate fatigue (yet)?

This all just baffles me. I like beer, I'm good at brewing it, friends want to buy it at commercial prices, a local bar wanted to sell it, and apparently the flavor profiles I produce resonate well with others. But once I have a very good beer, I want to stick with it.

So--why do you think there are two types of beer drinkers (yeah, I know, but run with it for a bit, if you would). Why do some people constantly want something new, and others stick with Ol' Reliable?


PS: I'll get a flight at a bar if they're offered. I do try new things. Heck, when we visited Jack's Abby during our East Coast trip, I had a flight where all four beers were terrific. They know how to do lagers there. I was tempted to just order the same flight again. But generally, if I can find a good one, I'm sticking to it.

View attachment 810205

This reminds me of a debate my wife and I would regularly have about camping. She wanted to pack up the tent everyday and go to another place to see something new. If I loved the original camp site and area, I wanted to stay.

Having said that … I can see both sides. I’ve been content with sticking with a good beer at a brewery and I’ve been happy to try different styles.

That puts me in the middle, I guess. Either way, I win.

 

[Sammy86]

So--why do you think there are two types of beer drinkers (yeah, I know, but run with it for a bit, if you would). Why do some people constantly want something new, and others stick with Ol' Reliable?

Simple answer: It’s a hobby. People want to try different flavors, styles, yeasts, etc. The same way a home cook doesn’t cook the same thing for dinner 5-7 nights a week or an artists doesn’t create the same picture, sculpture, photograph, etc. Besides, what fun is a hobby if you keep doing the same thing over and over and over again?

 

[Airborneguy]

There’s a third. Those of us who don’t see a reason to dwell on the why.

 

[Rish]

Your Peeper story is exactly why I try different beers all the time. You found a beer that you like a lot. Statistics aside, there's nothing to say that if you tried another beer of theirs that you hadn't had before you might like it as much or even more. That's worth the gamble to me since the only downside is I might not like it as much. It's still a beer!

 

[brewbama]

Random chance. That’s why I try beers I’ve never tried. Maybe I’ll love it. Maybe not.

 

[day_trippr]

In both buying and brewing I have always been "beer-curious" and willing to try new styles/offerings/recipes - all the while maintaining a solid repertoire of known solid go-to brews both mine and commercial for those times where one needs to get back to square one to then start trekking anew...

Cheers!

 

[mongoose33]

Your Peeper story is exactly why I try different beers all the time. You found a beer that you like a lot. Statistics aside, there's nothing to say that if you tried another beer of theirs that you hadn't had before you might like it as much or even more. That's worth the gamble to me since the only downside is I might not like it as much. It's still a beer!

I don't want there to be arguing here, but you can't just say "statistics aside" and have that resonate with me. If I have a beer that is the best I've ever had, the odds of the next one being as good or better are virtually zero.

That's why I don't understand why those who like beer would forsake such a world-class brew. To each his own, but I'm trying to understand this. Statistics say that I'm right (and I am), but there must be other reasons or motivations that drive others' willingness to set aside that great beer and try something else.

 

[Somesaymybeerisdrinkable]

Sometimes I want to drink something different.

 

[mac_1103]

If I have a beer that is the best I've ever had, the odds of the next one being as good or better are virtually zero.

Everything is not necessarily a stochastic process. The beer you pass up is either better than anything you've ever had before or it isn't and you'll never know unless you try it. There are no odds.

 

[hottpeper13]

Schrodingers beer! prowlley not spelled rite!

 

[Airborneguy]

I’m no statistician, but what mathematical constant determines that your perception of “the best beer ever” is impossible to statistically overcome?

 

[mac_1103]

The "constant" is never trying anything new. So the best beer you ever had will always remain the best beer you ever had. Like he said, there are two types of people in the world.

I can sort of see the OP's approach if you really truly believe that you have discovered the platonic ideal of the perfect beer. In that case, why would you ever want to drink anything else? It's the belief in perfection that I have a hard time with. Besides, Westvleteren is basically impossible to get outside of Belgium.

 

[Airborneguy]

Then there’s the question of best beer available NOW or best beer available EVER? And who’s to say that same beer is still “perfect” over the next batch?

The whole idea of “perfect” is statistically impossible.

 

[mongoose33]

Everything is not necessarily a stochastic process. The beer you pass up is either better than anything you've ever had before or it isn't and you'll never know unless you try it. There are no odds.

Stochastic it may not be but the analysis is still good. If you took all the beers there are, ranked them in order of deliciousness, and then had a beer in the 99th percentile, the chances of your next beer being better is...virtually nil. Thinking the odds at 50/50 being better than anything isn't how this is done. You have to look at the distribution.

Is beer selection random? Probably not, in the sense that beers from some brewers are likely similar in quality. But even then. When I had Peepers at Maine Brewing, I also had several others, including Lunch and Dinner. Neither were particularly good, IMO--to my palate, I considered them average.

But then at Jack's Abby, I had a flight and I considered all the beers quite good.

All anybody has to do to understand this is ask themselves this question: what's the best beer you've ever had, and then, how did the next beer, and even the next 10 beers, rate in comparison to that best beer?

I'm not looking for an argument on statistics here--I taught statistics in college for 30 years, I'm pretty OK with them. What I'm trying to understand is what drives others' desire for something new, even when they've just been gobsmacked with the best beer they've ever had.

I proposed palate fatigue as a possibility; doesn't seem like many agree with that idea, so I'm wondering what else drives that kind of decisionmaking because, to me, it doesn't make sense/resonate with how I experience trying new beers.

I said in the original post, right off the bat, "I believe that people like what they like, and they're not wrong to like what they like." I'm not saying anyone is wrong if they like to try new beer after new beer. I'm trying to understand why they do.

Nothing more than that.

 

[hotbeer]

So if you like just one beer, why would you go to tour different breweries?

 

[Bassman2003]

Beer choice and preference is a large topic. Were I come down on this is that I do not have a "one" beer. I like a lot of different styles and my desire to drink them seems to change frequently. This keeps me trying different yeasts & styles ect... Kind of like music for me as well. I like a lot of different styles of music and can find enjoyment in many if not all of them. So there is not one answer for me, just experiences to be had.

I do get style fatigue though...

 

[Rish]

"I'm not saying anyone is wrong if they like to try new beer after new beer. I'm trying to understand why they do."

Variety is the spice of life!

 

[bracconiere]

i'd post a pic of a horse pulling a carriage wearing blinders, but the sites handicapped right now...


so i'll just say freethinkers, and followers....

 

[Brewsmith]

I get where the OP is coming from but I have a slightly different take on it. I definitely have favorite beers that I come back to, but like the variety of trying new beers.

Over the 20+ years of being a craft beer fan, I’ve developed a few skills in choosing beers so that I rarely have bad beers.

If I’m at a new place I’ve never been before, I don’t start with the most experimental beer they make. I try to figure out what is their forte, and start there. I also know my own preferences and history with certain styles. I’m not a giant fan of the milkshake, pastry, fruited, lactose, kitchen sink beers, so I generally won’t order one.

Another tactic is to find the “brewer” beers and go for them. These are the beers that might not sell well because they don’t have the letters “I”, “P”, and “A” next to them and don’t quite fit the rest of what is on the board. Easy drinking, 5% and under, and often darker. Vienna Lager, English Mild, Milk Stout, those things. When there are 5 IPAs on the board and an English Porter, I’m trying the English Porter. Assuming it’s a reputable brewery, the IPA is paying the bills, and the porter is there because the brewing staff wants it.

Most of all, I know most of the breweries around me and I know who makes good beer, and who doesn’t. The places that make just ok beer, I don’t frequent. The places that consistently make great beer, I am more likely to try something new that I have never had. I also have got to know the staff that work at these places and they know my preferences. If you are a regular, they usually won’t steer me wrong.

By using a little discretion, and knowing what breweries around me are good at which styles, I have skewed the distribution graph so that I rarely have an OK beer, let alone a dud.

And then come back to the ones that are fantastic.

 

[mac_1103]

What I'm trying to understand is what drives others' desire for something new, even when they've just been gobsmacked with the best beer they've ever had.

The hope of being gobsmacked again.

I'm curious - do you approach everything this way or just beer? Do you ever try anything new? Why? After all, it's unlikely to be the best thing of its kind that you've ever experienced.

 

[bracconiere]

The hope of being gobsmacked again.

Spoiler: Gobsmacked

 

[mongoose33]

The hope of being gobsmacked again.

I'm curious - do you approach everything this way or just beer? Do you ever try anything new? Why? After all, it's unlikely to be the best thing of its kind that you've ever experienced.

When I walk into a bar with new beer (usually a taproom or such) I'll order a flight of beers that look interesting. Whichever wins is the next one I order.

But if I walked into a bar that served Peeper or Assassin, you'd better believe I'd order one.

As far as approaching everything this way: my understanding of statistics and distributions and probability DO inform most of what I do. It's impossible for it to not: when I know what the probabilities are, I have to choose the one with the greatest likelihood of success.

That's either a blessing or a curse, but over my life, I've found it to be a far greater blessing than the minimal curse.

It's why I can't go to casinos and play their games. I know the game is rigged against me, and I don't play such games. I play poker, but that's a game of skill. Even then, it's a game where probabilities exert their influence. I play in a semi-weekly game with normal Hold-Em rules and I just LOVE bringing my analytical approach and ability to read people to that game.

[I play in another poker game that's nickel/dime/quarter but there's not much skill involved as there are wild cards and random crap that cannot be modeled. In fact, I played in that game literally this past Saturday and won eight hands in a row, which is unbelievably unlike to happen, as most of that game is random and not skill-based, sort of like playing the lottery; lots of wild cards and such. But we play for the camaraderie and joking and beer drinking and cigar smoking, not so much the poker.]

I suspect many look at this and see it as robbing me of the thrill of life, but unless you can see the world the way I see it, I don't think that's a reasonable conclusion. The thrill is in using what I know to win, whether it's at poker or in deciding what to drink next.

It's also how I golf, BTW. I'm a single-digit handicapper (usually) and that's because I bring this kind of analysis to golf. It's a puzzle to be solved. I'll shoot in the 70s on a semi-regular basis. Had a couple of 76's in August, which was fun. Those occurred because I played within myself and allowed probabilities to inform shot choice.

 

[InspectorJon]

The best beers I have ever had were an experience. I remember where I was. They are rare and not easy and sometimes not even possible to repeat. Two were imperial stouts, one might call them pastry stouts. A dunkle at an outdoor beer garden in the southern Germany alps. Optimator doppelbock on tap in a basement bar at a resort in Klamath Falls, Oregon. The Waldos’ Special Ale by Lagunitas for the first time at an intimate acoustic guitar concert. These are examples.

I would like to have more experiences like that so I keep trying. I also love to try new things just to see what they are like. You can’t have a new experience if you don’t try something new. Every once in a while it is extraordinary. I guess I try and live life perusing the right end of that statistical curve.

I don’t have any one favorite beer. I like many styles, some not so much. I don’t have a favorite song either…

 

[mongoose33]

So if you like just one beer, why would you go to tour different breweries?

Because I was on a trip with friends. Part of the interest was to see whether the reputations were deserved or not. Some were, some not. And it's where I found one of the two best beers I've ever had from a commercial operation, i.e., Peeper.

Maine Brewing? Reputation deserved. Treehouse? Reputation deserved.

Hill Farmstead? No idea where their reputation comes from. Trillium? Underwhelming.

We go on trips with these friends from time to time. For me, the enjoyment of spending time with good friends is the lure. We're going to Madison next weekend and will visit a few breweries. My bud asks me what I think we should visit, and truth be told, I don't particularly care.

It's a lead-pipe cinch that none will have beers that approach the best beers I've ever had, but it's more about spending time with friends. And I can force down lesser beers if I have to.

 

[mongoose33]

Then there’s the question of best beer available NOW or best beer available EVER? And who’s to say that same beer is still “perfect” over the next batch?

The whole idea of “perfect” is statistically impossible.

Perfect and best are two different things. Perfection in statistical in nature, but it does remind me of Vince Lombardi's famous quote: "You can't achieve perfection, but if you chase perfection, you might catch excellence."

I've actually used that in my brewing, trying to produce perfection. I can't, but based on others' reaction to my beer, it probably is excellent.

 

[keggert]

I normally change up beers when I'm drinking. If a place I go to has a beer I absolutely love I'll have one then move on. Reason, how do I know its the best if I haven't tried what else is on offer. On the same note if I'm out camping I've been known to bring what I refer to as a Safety Beer. Something I know I like and don't mind drinking one after the other.

 

[mongoose33]

Your Peeper story is exactly why I try different beers all the time. You found a beer that you like a lot. Statistics aside, there's nothing to say that if you tried another beer of theirs that you hadn't had before you might like it as much or even more. That's worth the gamble to me since the only downside is I might not like it as much. It's still a beer!

I'm going to have to disagree, though I wish we were having this discussion over a beer.

I've had probably....guessing here....maybe 1000 different beers in my life. If I place Peeper and Assassin at the very right end of that distribution, what do you think the odds are that any new beer I have will be as good or better?

The answer is it's virtually nil. This is standard regression to the mean. That's not to say it can't happen, but it's not the way to bet.

I tend to get around this by asking for a splash or a taster before I order a pint of something. Maybe my standards are unreasonable, but I don't like drinking "meh" beer. And the odds are, any random beer is likely to be "meh."

 

[hotbeer]

My bud asks me what I think we should visit, and truth be told, I don't particularly care.

I think drinking the same beer might be something you consider a "safe" choice. And you don't wish to try something that might be a failure for you. And you do that again by telling your friends you don't really care where you go. You try to be safe because you don't want your suggestion to be a failure for all. You should ask your friends if they enjoy taking that risk all the time for you!

I do the same thing when I go on long road trips. We'll stop along the way and eat at a McDonald's or other franchised chain where we feel "safe" knowing will get the same basic thing no matter where in the country we are. Might not be the best, but we know pretty much what it'll be.

Just picking. So don't take this too seriously and deeply.

 

[TheMadKing]

So here's my take, and I'm definitely the latter. I prefer variety always in everything I do, not just beer.

It's not about the beer, its about the experience of trying new things itself. I prefer new experiences rather than the same experiences repeatedly. Even if the new experiences are negative, I still value them for what I can learn from them. If I do the same thing every day I start to feel stuck in a rut and start craving a change.

I enjoy getting lost in a new city. I rarely eat leftovers because I don't enjoy eating the same thing twice in a row, I almost never order the same beer twice in a session, and I rarely brew the same recipe more than once.

It's about the change for me

Edit: I'll also add that I don't rank every beer on a spectrum. I have more like groups of beers ranging from "I will dump this out after one sip" to "I will definitely order this at least once if I see it available"

The latter group contains probably 15-20 different beers depending on my mood. And so much depends on my mood, the time of year/season, and weather, etc. Today I might think Westmalle is the best beer I've ever had. Next week, I may be saying the same thing about a NEIPA, or a Porter, or a Maibock.

There is no "top beer" for me because what I want actually changes. I'm especially affected by the seasons too. I'll drink dark heavy beers all winter long and then drink Maibocks and irish stouts in spring, pilsners, IPA, and wheat beers in summer, etc.

 

[HM-2]

I've never brewed two of the same style consecutively. I've only brewed a handful of recipes more than maybe 3 times. I'm a habitual experimenter and tweaker, in most aspects of my life. I guess my brewing isn't that different.

 

[bracconiere]

I suspect many look at this and see it as robbing me of the thrill of life

i'm not one of them. in a turbulent world, with a lot of people on cocaine and amphetamines...stability is a gift!

 

[GoodTruble]

Even if you find your favorite beer, it won't stay the same forever, and neither will you. I like to try different beers so that I know what they taste like and maybe learn something new.

 

[Nixter]

Exploring the question of palate fatigue. If you could only have one beer for the rest of your life what would it be?... For me: Czech Lager. Best beer ever: Brasserie DuPont aves Les Bon Voeux on tap at Monk's in Philly in 2015 November. Wouldn't want to drink that everyday though. Operate under the principle that my favorite beer is the one that's in hand.

 

[acrowe]

Well I guess I fall in the middle on this sort of thing. I can relate this to things other than beer, for vacation times, different people have different preferences. My partner always wants to fly somewhere new and do new things, experience new places. She rarely wants to go back to the same spot. Myself if I had my way I'd stay on Vancouver Island (where I live in the summer) and do the same biking, hiking, fishing and beer drinking we always do. With beer, I enjoy trying new things, and going new places but I also really like to have stuff I know I am going to like.
The original poster suggested this was down to understanding the probabilities. I think there is something to this, particularly for gambling, I am not a statistician (though I do work with stats as a social science prof), and I know that long run you can't win at casinos, or VLTs, its a negative sum game (for players) where the odds are against you. I have never gambled in a casino - I'd rather buy a beer and drink it.
For other aspects I am guessing there are some aspects of neurodiversity (simply different people's brains functioning slightly differently). Some people are going to get a lot of enjoyment out of trying something new, and that rather than simply the quality of the actual beer experienced, is very valuable to them. Other's simply by the way their brain works are going to be more concerned than excited about the risk of getting something they won't really enjoy, and are happy to enjoy the familiar.
There are other aspects to this as well such as age, we get more conservative generally as we age(not everyone but many people) and I don't mean politics (though for many that too). The OP said they'd tried thousands of beers, and if that's true they are probably not really young (or are an amazing drinker). I would guess many people are more open to trying new things when they are young, and as they age they tend to stick with things they know and like. Consider music, in general people experience a bunch of different music when young, develop preferences, then don't shift much after their mid 20s.
Anyway I think its an interesting question, and my not definitive opinion is that some of whether you are always looking for the new favourite or stick with the known and loved comes down to exactly how much pleasure you get out of the excitement of trying something new, and we generally get more of that when we are younger (though not everyone).

 

[oakbarn]

I generally like the same beers and we only make those beers. Occasionally we will try to brew a new one, and it may become part of the cycle.

When I go to a Brewery, I try a sample of beers to I find one I like. I generally to not like any IPAs and definitely beers with adjuncts like Berries or other CR&P in them (one exception: Prescribed Burn at Steamworks in Durango with Chile Pepper!).

If I go to a bar, I might try a different beer, but normally only if they do not have one I like. Oddly enough, they were giving away Free Shocktop a few years ago (Never pass up free beer, you do not know where your next one is coming from). I thought I would hate it because of the orange mohawk, but it is a beer I will get if it is the best choice someplace.

 

[aceluby]

I don't want there to be arguing here, but you can't just say "statistics aside" and have that resonate with me. If I have a beer that is the best I've ever had, the odds of the next one being as good or better are virtually zero.

That's why I don't understand why those who like beer would forsake such a world-class brew. To each his own, but I'm trying to understand this. Statistics say that I'm right (and I am), but there must be other reasons or motivations that drive others' willingness to set aside that great beer and try something else.

This doesn't really add up. Statistically, you shouldn't be getting "the best beer you've ever had" over and over again. So, for the one or two times that might happen, sure, it makes sense to have another - but I'm thinking this is more a case of recency bias if it's happening so often that it has become a habit.

 

[bracconiere]

This doesn't really add up. Statistically, you shouldn't be getting "the best beer you've ever had" over and over again. So, for the one or two times that might happen, sure, it makes sense to have another - but I'm thinking this is more a case of recency bias if it's happening so often that it has become a habit.

statisiticly, if i cram enough of it down my throat i associate it with a not entirely unpleasant feeling.....i get that argument!


and along those lines, if it's a new hoe, i won't trust it till i get to know her....

 

[mongoose33]

I think drinking the same beer might be something you consider a "safe" choice. And you don't wish to try something that might be a failure for you. And you do that again by telling your friends you don't really care where you go. You try to be safe because you don't want your suggestion to be a failure for all. You should ask your friends if they enjoy taking that risk all the time for you!

I do the same thing when I go on long road trips. We'll stop along the way and eat at a McDonald's or other franchised chain where we feel "safe" knowing will get the same basic thing no matter where in the country we are. Might not be the best, but we know pretty much what it'll be.

Just picking. So don't take this too seriously and deeply.

I think you're confusing safety with excellence. The two are not the same.

 

[mongoose33]

This doesn't really add up. Statistically, you shouldn't be getting "the best beer you've ever had" over and over again. So, for the one or two times that might happen, sure, it makes sense to have another - but I'm thinking this is more a case of recency bias if it's happening so often that it has become a habit.

Forgive me, but I'm not employing this in an incorrect fashion. It's simple distributional probability. Period.

Or by another guise, regression to the mean.

I'm pretty up on this stuff. You don't have to take my word for that, but after having taught college statistics for 30+ years, I have a fair amount of confidence that I'm parsing this correctly.