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Old 04-05-2013, 01:59 PM   #2001
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CreamyGoodness
I have gotten the question "do you need a still for that?"

I think a lot of folks arent entirely sure what distillation or a still is. I dont mind an earnest question from a person who just doesnt know.
It's a legit question. I just find it funny.
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Old 04-05-2013, 02:11 PM   #2002
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Originally Posted by 454k30
Heard at the Ruddy Duck "Europeans don't drink beer like Americans. They sip and enjoy every nuance; and only have one beer a day".
They should come drink with some Finns. They probably wouldn't be able to stand after an hour or two.
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Old 04-05-2013, 02:19 PM   #2003
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Originally Posted by Krovitz View Post

Haha. Awesome. My boss insists you can make booze with more than 100% alcohol. When asked how that is possible, he just says that's what distilling does.
I guess your job doesn't require much math...
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Old 04-05-2013, 02:34 PM   #2004
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Originally Posted by Catfish78 View Post
They should come drink with some Finns. They probably wouldn't be able to stand after an hour or two.
drinking and sauna

heck yes
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Old 04-05-2013, 06:21 PM   #2005
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>>Haha. Awesome. My boss insists you can make booze with more than 100% alcohol. When asked how that is possible, he just says that's what distilling does.

Heh, heh. Okay detour:

I still get a chuckle from the Simpson Episode where Mr. Burns organizes a company baseball team and he hires a hypnotist who instructs them "When you awake you will give one hundred and ten percent" and the team all in a hypnotized drone respond "That's impossible. No-one can give more than 100%. By definition that is the most anyone can give."

Further derail:
Years ago there was a fast food promotional lottery. I noticed there was a listing on the tickets one's odds of winning each prize based on the number of tickets. e.g. Odds of winning the $1,000,000 1 ticket 1 in 2.7 billion; 2 tickets 1 in 1.35 billion; etc. And I noticed that they were merely mulitplying the single odds by the number of tickets. Hence the odds of winning a free hamburger with one ticket was 1 in 6; with 2 tickets-- 1 in 3; with 3 tickets 1 in 2; with 4 tickets 2 in 3; and with 6 tickets 1 in 1. I chuckled and noticed the most common prize was a free drink with the odds of 1 in 4. The listed odds were: 1 ticket-- 1 in 4; 2 tickets-- 1 in 2; 3 tickets-- 3 in 4; 4 tickets-- 1 in 1; 6 tickets-- greater than 1 in 1.

Yes, if you bought 6 tickets your odds of winning a free drink are "greater than 1 in 1".

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Old 04-05-2013, 06:26 PM   #2006
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Quote:
Originally Posted by woozy View Post
>>Haha. Awesome. My boss insists you can make booze with more than 100% alcohol. When asked how that is possible, he just says that's what distilling does.

Heh, heh. Okay detour:

I still get a chuckle from the Simpson Episode where Mr. Burns organizes a company baseball team and he hires a hypnotist who instructs them "When you awake you will give one hundred and ten percent" and the team all in a hypnotized drone respond "That's impossible. No-one can give more than 100%. By definition that is the most anyone can give."

Further derail:
Years ago there was a fast food promotional lottery. I noticed there was a listing on the tickets one's odds of winning each prize based on the number of tickets. e.g. Odds of winning the $1,000,000 1 ticket 1 in 2.7 billion; 2 tickets 1 in 1.35 billion; etc. And I noticed that they were merely mulitplying the single odds by the number of tickets. Hence the odds of winning a free hamburger with one ticket was 1 in 6; with 2 tickets-- 1 in 3; with 3 tickets 1 in 2; with 4 tickets 2 in 3; and with 6 tickets 1 in 1. I chuckled and noticed the most common prize was a free drink with the odds of 1 in 4. The listed odds were: 1 ticket-- 1 in 4; 2 tickets-- 1 in 2; 3 tickets-- 3 in 4; 4 tickets-- 1 in 1; 6 tickets-- greater than 1 in 1.

Yes, if you bought 6 tickets your odds of winning a free drink are "greater than 1 in 1".
it means your chances are that you'll win 2 drinks in those 6 tickets
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Old 04-05-2013, 06:45 PM   #2007
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Quote:
Originally Posted by woozy View Post
>>Haha. Awesome. My boss insists you can make booze with more than 100% alcohol. When asked how that is possible, he just says that's what distilling does.

Heh, heh. Okay detour:

I still get a chuckle from the Simpson Episode where Mr. Burns organizes a company baseball team and he hires a hypnotist who instructs them "When you awake you will give one hundred and ten percent" and the team all in a hypnotized drone respond "That's impossible. No-one can give more than 100%. By definition that is the most anyone can give."

Further derail:
Years ago there was a fast food promotional lottery. I noticed there was a listing on the tickets one's odds of winning each prize based on the number of tickets. e.g. Odds of winning the $1,000,000 1 ticket 1 in 2.7 billion; 2 tickets 1 in 1.35 billion; etc. And I noticed that they were merely mulitplying the single odds by the number of tickets. Hence the odds of winning a free hamburger with one ticket was 1 in 6; with 2 tickets-- 1 in 3; with 3 tickets 1 in 2; with 4 tickets 2 in 3; and with 6 tickets 1 in 1. I chuckled and noticed the most common prize was a free drink with the odds of 1 in 4. The listed odds were: 1 ticket-- 1 in 4; 2 tickets-- 1 in 2; 3 tickets-- 3 in 4; 4 tickets-- 1 in 1; 6 tickets-- greater than 1 in 1.

Yes, if you bought 6 tickets your odds of winning a free drink are "greater than 1 in 1".
I barely slid through Stat in college, but I don't think that's how it works . . .
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Old 04-05-2013, 07:18 PM   #2008
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>>it means your chances are that you'll win 2 drinks in those 6 tickets

It's likely but it's not inevetible. It's always possible that you'll have 6 dud tickets and not win anything so your odds can't ever be 100%

It's reasonable and understandable to assume that if your odds with 1 ticket is x, then your odds with n tickets will be n * x. (Although it turns out that isn't at all how probability works but it's reasonable to expect that most people will make that mistake).

But once you start dealing with large probabilities like 1 in 4 or 1 in 6 and you realize "gosh, that means I *have* to win if I have 6 tickets" something should tick off in your brain that *something* isn't right. And getting things like 150% probability should *really* tick you off that something is wrong.

Hint: Flipping a coin has a 1 in 2 chance of landing heads. By the above logic flipping a coin twice will have a 2 in 2 chance of landing heads. Hence it is *impossible* to flip a coin tails two times in a row.

>>I barely slid through Stat in college, but I don't think that's how it works . . .

It's definately not how it works.

Here's a hint: A guy has a 2/3 chance of making a basket. So if he shoots twice he has a 4/3 (greater than 100%) chance of making a basket. Well, that *can't* be right. He *could* miss both times. It's unlikely but he *could* miss both times.

Each time he shoots there are three possible outcomes: two in which he makes it and one in which he doesn't. So if he shoots twice there are nine possible outcomes. 4 in which he makes it each time. 2 in which he makes it the first time but not the second. 2 in which he makes it the second but not the first. And 1 in which he fails both times.

So the actual odds are 4/9 that he makes it both times; 8/9 that he makes it at least once; and 1/9 that he fails both times.

The odds of winning at least one drink are (who cares): 1 ticket-- 1 in 4. 2 tickets-- 7/16 (*less* than 1/2; but not much less); 3 tickets --37/64; 4 tickets-- 175/256; 6 tickets-- 3367/4096.

(With six tickets there are 4096 possible outcomes. In 729 you don't win any drinks. In 1,458 of them you win one drink. In 1,215 of them you win 2 drinks. In 540 of them you win 3 drinks. In 135 of them you win four drinks. In 18 of the you win 5 drinks. And in 1 of them you win 6 drinks.)

I think I *did* have 6 tickets and didn't win anything but that could be my memory making a good story. My table companion suggested that if someone did have six tickets and didn't win maybe said person could sue because the tickets said he *would* win.

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Old 04-05-2013, 07:26 PM   #2009
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let's say you get a cookie every time you make a basket, you're a crappy basketball player because your odds of making a basket are 1 in 4 and we are giving you 6 shots

odds are GREATER THAN EVEN that you'll get 1 cookie

definitely how it works

so the odds aren't the chances of each shot, it's that you're going to make at least one basket, given 6 shots

plus your mistake is thinking that EVEN ODDS or 1 to 1 odds is 100%, when the percentage chance of each outcome is 50%

it's 1 to 1 odds that a coin flip will come up heads

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Old 04-05-2013, 07:42 PM   #2010
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What are the odds that this thread will be derailed again?

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