Recently I've developed a new theory for what is happening in 21st century mashes, because it no longer matches up with the historical curves that continue to be thrown around ad nauseum.
My theory:
With the well-modified malts of the 21st century, the amount of TIME in the mash matters way more than the precise temperatures. Similarly, one should be able to mash at a lower temperature than historically true to achieve about the same results as history.
The reason for this I feel is pretty simple. We've got way more enzymes in our malts today than the days of old. The science of malting continues to evolve and improve just like anything else -- it's not stagnant! So when people say, "But beta and alpha work more slowly at lower temps", they're both right and wrong, because while they do work a bit slower, we're also throwing huge numbers of enzymes into the mash at the same time. So.... a mash for an hour today at 140 F might actually give the same results as a mash for an hour at 155 F from 100 years ago, based just on the huge amount of enzymes in there today vs. yesteryear. And then for the same reasons, a mash for 40 minutes today at 150 F might be the same as a mash for 75 minutes at 150 F from 100 years ago. There's no easy way of knowing truth without a time machine, but we could eventually develop good experiments comparing behavior of purposely undermodified malts with today's most well-modified malts. This is not a job for me, it's a job for commercial laboratories. We could play around but we homebrewers in the 21st century don't really have access to undermodified malts in most cases.
Temperatures and times shown above are for illustrative purposes, but I do believe there is a very real effect, and it has everything to do with advances in maltster technology in the 21st century and development of a lot more enzymes. These are facts that I think about 98% of brewers are ignorant of but 2% are beginning to catch onto.
Chew on that.
The way I see it, we have two options. Either we can explore the mash TIME thing, or the mash temperature thing in the lower reaches closer to 140 F. So far, I'm mashing almost every batch for just 40 minutes at 150 F, and have been for 10.5 years already. Are my beers more full-bodied and lower alcohol than others? Maybe by a point or two, but not really that anyone has been able to notice or point out. Could I instead be mashing at 140 or 145 F for 60 minutes and get the same results? I don't know, I just thought of this now. I might have to play around with that. On the other hand, to me time is precious, and I've been very happy shaving 20 minutes or more out of every single batch for the past 10.5 years.
