What no one wants to say

[Indian_villager]

I think the sentiment has been beaten to death but some of these businesses had to go. There are a heap of breweries I went to where the beers were mediocre at best. There once was a time I had 3 homebrew shops I could easily drive to, now the only reason I have a "local" shop is that I changed jobs and it is a minor detour.

Out of my 3 old ones, two of them had to go. They didn't change at all with the times, the equipment offerings were dated, and damn near half the floor space was occupied with those Brewers Best / wine concentrate kits. They didn't really keep up with the brewing trends, meaning they didn't keep the stock needed nor were they able to support new brewers who were trying to get into the hobby via the new trends.

LHBS are still businesses run by people, and some people are just not good at running businesses.

 

[MaxStout]

Go to a store in France and listen to what appears to be screech monkeys singing harmony to howler monkeys. Yesterday my wife said the same thing you just said. "Who picks this music? Do they not want us to stay here long enough to buy our groceries?"

I can handle most genres of music, but the other day we went to our favorite Mexican restaurant and they were playing something where the vocals had the autotune cranked to 11. It sounded like someone was strangling a cat.

My lawn. Get off it.

 

[FloppyKnockers]

https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/heart-disease/in-depth/red-wine/art-20048281

How might alcohol help the heart?​

Many studies have shown that drinking regular, limited amounts of any type of alcohol helps the heart. It's not just red wine. It's thought that alcohol:

• Raises HDL cholesterol, also called the "good" cholesterol.
• Helps keep blood clots from forming.
• Helps prevent artery damage from high levels of LDL cholesterol, also called the "bad" cholesterol.
• May improve how well the layer of cells that line the blood vessels works.

Reupdated: News flash: Americans are drinking less Fewer Americans are drinking.

Fewer Americans are drinking less

 

[mac_1103]

Reupdated: News flash: Americans are drinking less Fewer Americans are drinking.

Fewer Americans are drinking less

Doesn't this belong in Random Drunken Thoughts?

 

[Miraculix]

Pennsylvania also had these same “blue laws”. No sunday sales, no sales in supermarkets, no sales in gas stations as some places have. We have to buy beer in one store we call a beer distributor. Beer distributors are privately owned. For a very long time PA was a case state - you could only buy beer by the case. Unless you went to a bar. You could buy a 6 pack or a 40 oz from a bar for takeout. We have to buy wine and spirits in another chain of stores that are run by the state. There are no Total Wine stores in PA. They are in NJ and DE nearby. PA only in recent years has allowed supermarkets to sell beer and wine (no spirits) and there’s a tight oz limit on how much you can buy in the supermarket. They have a seperate register and they have to scan your drivers licence into their computer and its monitored. The other day I tried to buy a 15 pack of Ultra for my wife and a 4 pack of Backwoods Bastard and I was told it was over the limit. So my wife went back after me and bought the 4 pack. What was the point?

PA is called the Quaker State. Founded by the Quakers and much of it was religious sentiment. I’m not sure how much of that still exists. But its still not as easy to get anything here as it is down south. Last time I was in Georgia you could buy beer in gas stations and you could buy a case of beer in the Krogers.

My stepdaughter lives in Virginia Beach. Their laws are different again. They have ABC stores like our state stores but only for spirits. Their Total Wine only sells beer and wine. It was weird going there compared to the ones here.

Man..... This sounds so surreal. I am able to go to Aldi and buy as many half a litre cans as I want since I'm 16 years old for a price below 60 cents per can.
Germany ftw!

 

[FloppyKnockers]

Doesn't this belong in Random Drunken Thoughts?

This whole thread belongs there.

 

[MaxStout]

I think the sentiment has been beaten to death but some of these businesses had to go. There are a heap of breweries I went to where the beers were mediocre at best. There once was a time I had 3 homebrew shops I could easily drive to, now the only reason I have a "local" shop is that I changed jobs and it is a minor detour.

Out of my 3 old ones, two of them had to go. They didn't change at all with the times, the equipment offerings were dated, and damn near half the floor space was occupied with those Brewers Best / wine concentrate kits. They didn't really keep up with the brewing trends, meaning they didn't keep the stock needed nor were they able to support new brewers who were trying to get into the hobby via the new trends.

LHBS are still businesses run by people, and some people are just not good at running businesses.

/approves

 

[BrewnWKopperKat]

Palmer (beginner to intermediate) & Zainasheff (intermediate) wrote books in those areas.

Forgot about Palmer.

He's a periodic guest on the BeerSmith podcast.

Also, it looks like he is one of the contributors for the "Reciepe of the week" column (link) at Beer & Brewer (AU).

---

and "One more thing link:
"Looking back and forward with John Palmer"

 

[JoeSchmoe]

Craft beer is declining. Homebrewing is dying. The macros are gaining market share while small breweries are closing. Everytime someone brings this up, there's alwasy somebody around to point out that this isn't true. But when compared to it's heyday, craft is on a major decline.

In my area, three micros closed their doors in the last year and the two closest to me are hurting and have too much debt. The largest homebrew shop near me has closed after 20 years of service at that location and another big one only opens once a week and has been sold and moved to another area.

The kids aren't drinking as much, the adults are sick of weird beers and are going back to BMC and the only thing on the shelves is an endless selection of terrible IPAs.

I don't care if this gets heat, I know a lot of people don't like to talk about it, but when an industry that was started by your local HBS largely only exists online, it's bad. There are any factors, but I think the major one is that most micros simply don't make good beer. It was enough when the market was growing and people were experimenting and willing to try anything, but these days, your roasted coffee oatmeal sour milk stout isn't going to pay the bills. I think a lot of people are being alienated by brewers with an endless appetite for innovation and wonky creativity and almost no regards for traditional processes, balance and quality control. I went on a mini beer pilgrimage not too long ago and of about 15 different styles of beer I drank, I remember only 3 or 4 that were well balanced, well elaborated and didn't suffer from some sort of defect. Unfortunately, I don't think this is going to change any time soon when brewers seem to take more pride in pushing every convention to it's limit more than they take pride in selling a second serving of the same beer.

Anyway, rant over. I'll go back into hiding for now.

I'm new to brewing and I think you completely nailed it. Part of the attraction to the hobby is how badly craft brewers are overdoing things.

I'm vowing that all my beers I'm making will be that forgetten missing middle between boring macro beers and all the experimental stuff that's ruining the industry.

 

[user 348755]

I'm new to brewing and I think you completely nailed it. Part of the attraction to the hobby is how badly craft brewers are overdoing things.

I'm vowing that all my beers I'm making will be that forgetten missing middle between boring macro beers and all the experimental stuff that's ruining the industry.

The missing middle is a good term for this. People like to talk about the huge selection available, but try to find an actual English bitter or an Italian pils and you're out of luck. You can find craft beers marketed as these styles, but too often its clear the brewer doesnt understand what makes these styles, great. These are the gateway beers to better beers, not the tired and oxidized fuit juices and 115 IBU APAs that crowd the shelves.

I know a lot of heavy, heavy beer drinkers. The kind that get volume discounts and keep the corner store and the macros alive and it's not that they don't like good beer, it's that they want to know what they are buying. They buy several cases at a time and don't want to take a risk on someone's dream of being a brewer. These guys could literally keep a single brewery afloat. The nice thing is, being a homebrewer, I can educate these guys and make them appreciate good beer. And it works. The road from Bud Light to a good APA passes through Bohemian Pils, belgian wits, English bitters and Japanese rice lagers etc...but all these style have what matters, balance and a clear identity.

 

[rallenhall]

I remember back at the 2007 NHC in Denver where one of the keynotes stated that the death of craft brew would come from the inside ... from bad brewers destroying the reputation of craft. That might be a bit overstated, though I've noticed that some breweries offering questionable beer at their opening never improved or upped their quality over time. Of course, cost control and economy of scale can easily elude small brewers, so they may be doomed from the very beginning anyway.

 

[Miraculix]

I'm new to brewing and I think you completely nailed it. Part of the attraction to the hobby is how badly craft brewers are overdoing things.

I'm vowing that all my beers I'm making will be that forgetten missing middle between boring macro beers and all the experimental stuff that's ruining the industry.

I'm about to brew an ale. It will be great.

 

[Halfakneecap]

The missing middle is a good term for this. People like to talk about the huge selection available, but try to find an actual English bitter or an Italian pils and you're out of luck. You can find craft beers marketed as these styles, but too often its clear the brewer doesnt understand what makes these styles, great. These are the gateway beers to better beers, not the tired and oxidized fuit juices and 115 IBU APAs that crowd the shelves.

I know a lot of heavy, heavy beer drinkers. The kind that get volume discounts and keep the corner store and the macros alive and it's not that they don't like good beer, it's that they want to know what they are buying. They buy several cases at a time and don't want to take a risk on someone's dream of being a brewer. These guys could literally keep a single brewery afloat. The nice thing is, being a homebrewer, I can educate these guys and make them appreciate good beer. And it works. The road from Bud Light to a good APA passes through Bohemian Pils, belgian wits, English bitters and Japanese rice lagers etc...but all these style have what matters, balance and a clear identity.

So, basically you want people to drink what you think is good beer, not what they think is good beer? And micros to brew what you think is good beer, not what they think is good beer?

 

[Pennine]

Plenty of Italian pils and English bitters out there. Like @Halfakneecap is getting at 90% of the customers frequenting breweries don't want to drink them. So they are typically on rotation for variety for the odd curmudgeon that shows up.

This is why businesses go out of business, they do what they want to do not what their customers want them to do.

 

[mac_1103]

I remember back at the 2007 NHC in Denver where one of the keynotes stated that the death of craft brew would come from the inside ... from bad brewers destroying the reputation of craft.

Yeah, just like nobody goes to good restaurants anymore because bad restaurants have destroyed the reputation of cooking.

 

[MaxStout]

Yeah, just like nobody goes to good restaurants anymore because bad restaurants have destroyed the reputation of cooking.

The decline of craft brew is due to several factors, as has been pointed out ad nauseum in this thread.

The 2007 keynote was not prescient. Craft beer is not dying, and the decline that is happening isn't due to some bad brewers. People who seek good beer will find it. Or make it.

 

[user 348755]

So, basically you want people to drink what you think is good beer, not what they think is good beer? And micros to brew what you think is good beer, not what they think is good beer?

I think they should stop the bleeding from the micros to the macros by learning a lesson about quality. When hard-core beer drinkers are going back to the macros instead of supporting their local brewers, they've got a problem. But then again, maybe they deserve it.

 

[user 348755]

So, basically you want people to drink what you think is good beer, not what they think is good beer? And micros to brew what you think is good beer, not what they think is good beer?

I think they should stop the bleeding from the micros to the macros by learning a lesson about quality. When hard-core beer drinkers are going back to the macros instead of supporting their local brewers, they've got a problem. But then again, maybe they deserve it.

 

[user 348755]

Yeah, just like nobody goes to good restaurants anymore because bad restaurants have destroyed the reputation of cooking.

This thread is making me want to have a happy meal and a Coors light.

 

[user 348755]

Plenty of Italian pils and English bitters out there. Like @Halfakneecap is getting at 90% of the customers frequenting breweries don't want to drink them. So they are typically on rotation for variety for the odd curmudgeon that shows up.

This is why businesses go out of business, they do what they want to do not what their customers want them to do.

So small breweries are going under because they're offering what customers want? And the old curmudgeons that aren't drinking there is making them fail? Make the make sense for me.

 

[Snuffy]

I think you guys are close to a breakthrough in social science here. We should be consultants.

 

[user 348755]

I think you guys are close to a breakthrough in social science here. We should be consultants.

We just need to argue about it a little longer.

 

[JoeSchmoe]

So, basically you want people to drink what you think is good beer, not what they think is good beer? And micros to brew what you think is good beer, not what they think is good beer?

I think the key is that the micros all got bored of making uncomplicated, but good beers. At the same time, the average beer consumer isn't looking for what the bored craft brewers are putting out.

 

[Pennine]

So small breweries are going under because they're offering what customers want? And the old curmudgeons that aren't drinking there is making them fail? Make the make sense for me.

So small breweries are going under because they're offering what customers want? And the old curmudgeons that aren't drinking there is making them fail? Make the make sense for me.

Your just being difficult now. All those beers you labeled in your post above are why breweries are failing. None of them are going to keep them in business except for the fruity IPA or the Macro like lager. And then drinkers are wondering why they would pay $8 a pint when they can get a 12 pack at the store for that price and it likely tastes better.

I have to be honest I am not really sure what we are arguing about anymore? What's the point of this thread again?

 

[Halfakneecap]

I think they should stop the bleeding from the micros to the macros by learning a lesson about quality. When hard-core beer drinkers are going back to the macros instead of supporting their local brewers, they've got a problem. But then again, maybe they deserve it.

Everyone without skin in the game is an expert lol.

The reason the macros sell more beer than micros by an exponential factor is that it's just beer for most people. It goes with a shared experience ( BBQ etc ), it's not the sole reason for the experience. Not everybody worships at the altar of Budvar or whatever beer is your pinnacle.

I support craft breweries here locally, but i still drink macro lagers, because they're everywhere, and they're consistently good beers. Not great maybe, but drinkable and enjoyable.

Maybe the title should've been "What someone doesn't want to hear?"

 

[mac_1103]

This thread is making me want to have a happy meal and a Coors light.

I'm sorry that everything sucks where you live. Craft Beer is thriving around here, and we are enjoying the hell out of it.

 

[betarhoalphadelta]

I think they should stop the bleeding from the micros to the macros by learning a lesson about quality. When hard-core beer drinkers are going back to the macros instead of supporting their local brewers, they've got a problem. But then again, maybe they deserve it.

So small breweries are going under because they're offering what customers want? And the old curmudgeons that aren't drinking there is making them fail? Make the make sense for me.

All you've offered so far is anecdata. This is what the actual count nationally looks like.

Now, it's true that the very same link does show more closings than openings in 2023-24. But the numbers are small.

You could read that as "doom & gloom" for craft beer, or you could read it as many areas reaching saturation in the face of declining US alcohol consumption and the bad breweries are going away, hopefully leaving the best standing.

But the idea that you know a few big drinkers who switched back to macro is pure anecdotal. And the idea that small breweries are dying isn't borne out by the actual data, even if there is a marginal decline.

 

[FloppyKnockers]

All you've offered so far is anecdata. This is what the actual count nationally looks like.

View attachment 882340

Now, it's true that the very same link does show more closings than openings in 2023-24. But the numbers are small.

You could read that as "doom & gloom" for craft beer, or you could read it as many areas reaching saturation in the face of declining US alcohol consumption and the bad breweries are going away, hopefully leaving the best standing.

But the idea that you know a few big drinkers who switched back to macro is pure anecdotal. And the idea that small breweries are dying isn't borne out by the actual data, even if there is a marginal decline.

Hey now... Why do you have to go bringing facts and reason into his circular reasoning fallacy and dogmatic dialog?

 

[user 348755]

All you've offered so far is anecdata. This is what the actual count nationally looks like.

View attachment 882340

Now, it's true that the very same link does show more closings than openings in 2023-24. But the numbers are small.

You could read that as "doom & gloom" for craft beer, or you could read it as many areas reaching saturation in the face of declining US alcohol consumption and the bad breweries are going away, hopefully leaving the best standing.

But the idea that you know a few big drinkers who switched back to macro is pure anecdotal. And the idea that small breweries are dying isn't borne out by the actual data, even if there is a marginal decline.

No it's not anecdotal. The same source you cite shows that there a 4% drop on total consumption and that 13% of that is from micros. So that means that people that used to buy from micros just aren't drinking at all, or the macros are increasingly gaining that share.

But you all are right. I should have titled this thread "what no one wants hear".

 

[mac_1103]

So that means that people that used to buy from micros just aren't drinking at all, or the macros are increasingly gaining that share.

You have to define "micro" and "macro" first. Then maybe we can get to the part where we over-interpret the rounding errors.

 

[user 348755]

Hey now... Why do you have to go bringing facts and reason into his circular reasoning fallacy and dogmatic dialog?

You have to define "micro" and "macro" first. Then maybe we can get to the part where we over-interpret the rounding

Nevermind. All is good. I'll show myself out.

 

[bwible]

Everyone without skin in the game is an expert lol.

The reason the macros sell more beer than micros by an exponential factor is that it's just beer for most people. It goes with a shared experience ( BBQ etc ), it's not the sole reason for the experience. Not everybody worships at the altar of Budvar or whatever beer is your pinnacle.

I support craft breweries here locally, but i still drink macro lagers, because they're everywhere, and they're consistently good beers. Not great maybe, but drinkable and enjoyable.

Maybe the title should've been "What someone doesn't want to hear?"

Yeah this sums it for me as well. “It’s just beer to most people.” Out of how many who drink beer, how many are brewers at any level? The average Joe doesn’t know centennial from mittelfruh or 2 row from carapils and doesn’t care. They just want a beer to drink with their burger off the grill or watching the game. My wife will occasionally drink one of my darker brews like a stout or we’ll share a barleywine. But she 99% drinks Ultra and often White Claw during summer. She listens to me blather on about brewing but she’s never going to brew. There was a comment I laughed at in another post about the guy lying face down in the gutter at Octoberfest in Germany who wasn’t talking about the perfectly balanced and crisp lager with no acetaldehyde.

I buy beer probably almost as much as I brew. Mostly seasonal releases but sometimes I still buy High Life or something. Right now I have Kona Big Wave. I got 18 cans for $21.

 

[bwible]

Man..... This sounds so surreal. I am able to go to Aldi and buy as many half a litre cans as I want since I'm 16 years old for a price below 60 cents per can.
Germany ftw!

It wasn’t wierd to us because we grew up with it that way. It’s only when you get out of this area and see how things are in other places that you realize.

 

[day_trippr]

That graph shows the rise of craft, which corresponds to the decline of home brewing which started around 2011...

 

[MaxStout]

Yeah this sums it for me as well. “It’s just beer to most people.” Out of how many who drink beer, how many are brewers at any level? The average Joe doesn’t know centennial from mittelfruh or 2 row from carapils and doesn’t care. They just want a beer to drink with their burger off the grill or watching the game. My wife will occasionally drink one of my darker brews like a stout or we’ll share a barleywine. But she 99% drinks Ultra and often White Claw during summer. She listens to me blather on about brewing but she’s never going to brew. There was a comment I laughed at in another post about the guy lying face down in the gutter at Octoberfest in Germany who wasn’t talking about the perfectly balanced and crisp lager with no acetaldehyde.

I buy beer probably almost as much as I brew. Mostly seasonal releases but sometimes I still buy High Life or something. Right now I have Kona Big Wave. I got 18 cans for $21.

Sounds like my household. My wife will occasionally drink my beer--the ones that are low ABV and low IBU. But mostly, she would rather have an Angry Orchard or hard seltzer.

I do buy a lot of beer, too. Wife asks, "Why do you buy beer when you have a fridge full of home brew?"

I like to buy styles I might want to brew, to get an idea what characteristics to aim for. "It's research!" I also buy styles that are out of reach of my abilities. Like NEIPA. I also like to buy some non-craft beers that are good to have around as easy-drinkers.

 

[FloppyKnockers]

Sounds like my household. My wife will occasionally drink my beer--the ones that are low ABV and low IBU. But mostly, she would rather have an Angry Orchard or hard seltzer.

I do buy a lot of beer, too. Wife asks, "Why do you buy beer when you have a fridge full of home brew?"

I like to buy styles I might want to brew, to get an idea what characteristics to aim for. "It's research!" I also buy styles that are out of reach of my abilities. Like NEIPA. I also like to buy some non-craft beers that are good to have around as easy-drinkers.

Same... I don't call it the beer isle. I call it the R&D isle.

 

[MaxStout]

Out back with a Brain Melter.

 

[bwible]

Sounds like my household. My wife will occasionally drink my beer--the ones that are low ABV and low IBU. But mostly, she would rather have an Angry Orchard or hard seltzer.

I do buy a lot of beer, too. Wife asks, "Why do you buy beer when you have a fridge full of home brew?"

I like to buy styles I might want to brew, to get an idea what characteristics to aim for. "It's research!" I also buy styles that are out of reach of my abilities. Like NEIPA. I also like to buy some non-craft beers that are good to have around as easy-drinkers.

 

[Brockness Monster]

This thread.

 

[Bobby_M]

No it's not anecdotal. The same source you cite shows that there a 4% drop on total consumption and that 13% of that is from micros. So that means that people that used to buy from micros just aren't drinking at all, or the macros are increasingly gaining that share.

But you all are right. I should have titled this thread "what no one wants hear".

I'm tempted to stop participating in the dead horse thread but as long as you keep getting this wrong....Craft volume dropped 4%. The 13% number you saw is the craft market share of the total sales.

A 4% drop isn't an apocalypse. I think everyone was so used to unfettered growth that a plateau looks like a free fall.


This is really the important part.

Here's why stuff is optically hitting the fan. Look at the production growth through 2015. It flatlined starting in 2016 and aside from 2020's 12% drop off, it's been mostly flat since then (the average production growth 2016 through 2024 is -1%).

Ok, now slide your eyes over on 2015 to the right. With 42% demand growth logged the year before, we see 41% growth in the number of breweries.
The VERY next year saw flat production but now it was shared by an extra 900 breweries. Look at the average BBLs per year per brewery; a drop from 6495 down to 5100.

You can trace down the right column and see how bleek it got. If in 2014 you were lucky enough to have an AVERAGE share of the market, you'd profit about $6M with would fund that expansion tap room downtown. Just 5 short years later, you'd be making half that.


In other words, craft isn't dying because of what beer they're making or not making. It's just that the number of craft consumers peaked in 2015 but the number of breweries peaked in 2023. The other thing the numbers don't cleanly show is that it only takes a few places to have strong game to steal that average BBL per year away from others. Those are the places closing up. Ah, to be a below average craft brewery in 2015 when you could still profit as if the beer was good.

Year	Craft Production (bbls)	Growth	Craft Breweries	Growth	BBLs per Brewery
2010​	10,133,977​		1759​
2011​	11,467,337​	13%​	1989​	13%​	5765​
2012​	13,235,917​	15%​	2347​	18%​	5640​
2013​	15,600,000​	18%​	2768​	18%​	5636​
2014​	22,200,000​	42%​	3418​	23%​	6495​
2015​	24,500,000​	10%​	4803​	41%​	5101​
2016​	24,600,000​	0%​	5713​	19%​	4306​
2017​	25,400,000​	3%​	6661​	17%​	3813​
2018​	25,500,000​	0%​	7618​	14%​	3347​
2019​	26,300,000​	3%​	8419​	11%​	3124​
2020​	23,100,000​	-12%​	8921​	6%​	2589​
2021​	24,800,000​	7%​	9210​	3%​	2693​
2022​	24,300,000​	-2%​	9675​	5%​	2512​
2023​	23,400,000​	-4%​	9761​	1%​	2397​
2024​	23,100,000​	-1%​	9796​	0%​	2358​

Edit: I just want to clarify that I'm not saying craft isn't on the downward slope of the cycle. We are and the 2025 numbers are probably going to be in the double digits drop if not close. What I AM saying is that the number of brewery closures is much more reflective of out of control supply and any contraction is going to look worse than it is until the number of breweries drops significantly to where good breweries can thrive.