What no one wants to say

[corncob]

One facet of this not yet mentioned here is the 3 tier system. Retail is hard for little guys because of it. The big AB distributor has literal control of how much shelf space gets left for the craft guys. Actually, I wonder if the 3 tier is why we have a division between macro and craft at all. There are the guys who thrive in the system and the guys who the system strangles.

My wish, personally? I wish 50 small regional macros rise from the ashes of "craft beer" when it's all over. Decent beer, tolerable price, high level of variety, not driven by fads.

 

[MaxStout]

Well.... a number of breweries that started with the hopes of distribution or multiple locations. Many have now pivoted to a brewpub license and are diversifying their income streams. Being able to basically spin up an up-scale bar without fighting for limited liquor licenses is a nifty benefit.

I'm seeing the opposite happening here. Some breweries are closing taprooms/brewpubs and moving to a strictly production/distribution model. A handful of brewers and canning operators in a building in an industrial park vs. a dozen or more employees needed to run a taproom and food service in a desirable retail location.

Granted, it's a few data points, but I see the wisdom in the transition. Hard to make money selling pints and growlers.

 

[sibelman]

My wish, personally? I wish 50 small regional macros rise from the ashes of "craft beer" when it's all over. Decent beer, tolerable price, high level of variety, not driven by fads.

My wish is similar:

1. American light lager for those who want that,

2. your "small macros" for consistent, good beers for those who don't want BMC, and

3. small, experimental breweries to press the envelope and offer us the new, the weird, and sometimes, the wonderful.

We CAN have nice things.

 

[Pennine]

[

See above to know what I am talking about. Whenever someone does say this, somebody else just flat out denies it's happening.

Yes it's a bubble. It will never completely die, but it is consolidating and the macros are taking it back through acquisitions and growing market shares.

I appreciate the honesty but I do think it's kind for taboo to talk about, even it if has been said a number of times.

I started working in the industry in the early 1990's before the major boom and got out of it in the early 2000's just before it really took off. Now that I'm homebreweing again, it's actually harder to find HBSs locally than it was back then. I tried to support my local HBS as much as I could but whatever is causing this downturn, it is very real and it is concerning from a Homebrewers standpoint. So while it won't stop me and I'll keep brewing, the reason I made the post is that this is becoming and undeniable fact and yet, whenever we talk about it, there's a lineup of people ready to tell us that we're not seeing what we're seeing. In the end, I don't care about stats or how much beer is being sold because that doesn't offset the very real losses locally and of craft breweries and local HBS stores are dying, then it's safe to say craft beer is dying.

I definitely think home brewing as a hobby is taking a big hit in all of this. The plethora of beer options between local brew pubs, them selling packaged versions for home and the overall variety of beer available at most liquor stores is a real deterrent for more casual potential and former brewers. So maybe we should be blaming the rise in breweries for the death of homebrewing. I also say that tongue in cheek, homebrewing will just become a niche hobby like others.

From a home brew store standpoint the ones that have attached breweries or online ordering seem to be the ones holding on. Niche physical hobby shops are a hard business in today's environment. It's like music in a way, people have way more access to a larger variety of hobbies so online shops cater to larger markets.

Also a lot of home brewers are quitting because alcohol is not good for you and is a mother ****** to moderate for quite a few people.

 

[mac_1103]

We CAN have nice things.

We already DO have lots and lots of nice things. But humans like to whine.

 

[MaxStout]

Even with the decline in brewing we have FAR more choices now than we did just a few decades ago.

Twenty years ago, it was basically Summit and Surly in my town, held back by the state's archaic restrictions on taprooms. Within a few years that all changed.

Now, you can't swing a dead cat without hitting a brewery. Lots of them are serving great food, too. We'll no doubt continue to lose some breweries, but the ones that remain standing will be those that stay on top of things. Craft beer will keep losing some market share, but it's not going away. There will still be lots of good choices.

 

[sibelman]

We already DO have lots and lots of nice things. But humans like to whine.

I should've said, we can still have nice things.

And yes, I have lots and lots. Way more than enough. I try not to whine.

 

[CDS]

We have 3 kids and 6 grandkids. None of them drink alcohol. None of their friends seem to have any interest in even social drinking. Almost all of them went to college and never drank to any degree in college. None of them learned how to even pour a tap beer in college. Quite a few of them won't even drink soda. The world is changing.

As I recall Millennials drink 20% less than Baby Boomers and Gen Z'ers drink 20% less than Milennials. That is a 40% drop in just 2 generations.

Exactly. To me this is the biggest factor impacting sales and the hobby. It's a generational thing, and kids just aren't interested. And when they DO drink it's in moderation and it's more likely to be canned seltzers or ciders than craft beer. I've seen the craft beer section in my liquor store shrink by 50% over the past couple years as seltzers etc. take over the shelf space.
Not obvious at first, but very related is that people are relying more and more on doordash, ubereats, etc. to bring them pre-made meals, or going out to eat. They're not cooking anymore. I have seen first hand vibrant neighborhoods with fresh fruit markets, cheese and fish mongers and butchers slowly being transformed into just another strip of restaurants and bars. My point here is that if people aren't even cooking their own meals, what are the chances they're going to be interested in brewing their own beer?

 

[madscientist451]

What no one wants to say? All kinds of people have been saying it for years. But what does it matter? Everything is better when people stop worrying, relax, and have a homebrew.

 

[madscientist451]

Now, you can't swing a dead cat without hitting a brewery.

The image in my mind of swinging a dead cat (like a baseball batter warming up) just won't quit.
I'm going to crack open some HB barleywine I've been saving.....

 

[Pennine]

We need to be realistic regarding brewery numbers.

2024 - 9,922
2023 - 9,906
2022 - 9,824
2021 - 9,384
2020 - 9,092
2015 - 4,841
1976 - 103

Even if we see a 10% decline we are still talking 9,000 breweries.

 

[Halfakneecap]

Here in Aus, some are closing, but as has been said, there are still a heap more than pre covid. Lots.

What's really popular here is small breweries in industrial areas with a food truck ( usually changes week to week ). A lot less regulation than an actual brewpub. Though quite a few local pubs will have a local craft beer or 2 on tap.

And yeah, as a parent to 15,18 and 20yr olds, drinking is nowhere near as popular as when i was their age. Which i think is a good thing.

It's also relatively expensive as Australia gets a lot of income from "vice" taxes, like alcohol, gambling and cigarettes. If we taxed the mega mining companies tax on the billions they make from natural resources, beer ( and just about everything else ) could be almost free. We're not that smart though

The "faux sour" beer thing annoys the hell out of me. Bland beer with lactic acid and fruit essence. Psychedelic can and charge big $$$ for it ( old man shakes fist at cloud ). lol

 

[Miraculix]

I think it's a healthy market development. The times are over when one could excite the whole town with a very hot IPA or hazy. It's nice to have a good IPA but the market does not need twenty of them, from which the half is probably poorly executed.

People want quality. Coors and bud is high quality stuff, that's why they are selling. Granted, the specific type of beer might be too bland for some, but within the realm of light lager, their stuff is high quality.

The breweries that will produce high quality and also balanced brews as their staples, will win. Not too much into the extremes. Obviously for the same of our there can be special editions or seasonal brews or whatnot, but the core moneymakers should be balanced stuff that is of high quality. This sells and I want to drink that . I don't want twenty hasty iPas. I want a bitter, a IPA, a session apa and maybe a saison. Not high abv. Normal saison.

Maybe the people are scared of brewing normal brews because it's easy to see when they mess them up.

 

[dmtaylor]

We have 3 kids and 6 grandkids. None of them drink alcohol. None of their friends seem to have any interest in even social drinking. Almost all of them went to college and never drank to any degree in college. None of them learned how to even pour a tap beer in college. Quite a few of them won't even drink soda. The world is changing.

As I recall Millennials drink 20% less than Baby Boomers and Gen Z'ers drink 20% less than Milennials. That is a 40% drop in just 2 generations.

I'm a beer nerd and my 3 kids are all adults. Obviously they all grew up with beer, around beer, and reluctantly tasted sips of my beer over the years. And now that they are all grown up, I try to get them into beer, and,,, they just won't have it. To this day, I've still never taken my oldest out for a beer at the local pub. He says we should do that sometime, but anytime I ask he's like, nah, he'd rather do something else. They don't want to drink at all, don't want to hang out at the bar, or drink at home either. Part of it I think is that they were taught in schools from like 1st grade on up that "alcohol is a drug, and drugs are bad" -- it was drilled into them relentlessly. And these kids... they're a much different generation. They grew up indoors. They endured COVID lockdown for years. And as a result, many of them just have zero interest in the outside world. They'd rather play video games, watch TikTok & YouTube, or text their online friends than get out and do anything social, which includes drinking. They might go out if forced but it's not like it was in our day... they're not going out to get trashed in the woods and get into trouble. Sometimes I wish my kids were more trouble like I was! To be honest, I'm not sure what they go out to do, on the rare occasion that they do go out. Whatever it is, it's not too exciting, and not very often. On the AVERAGE, I mean. There's always exceptions, of course, but I see the vast majority being more like introverts who don't want much social interaction in person, in the flesh, at a bar or social gathering. The average young person just does not wanna drink. Not beer, and not anything else for that matter. For many, the fizzy seltzers are about as close as they might ever get to consuming alcohol. But the average young person doesn't even want that either. They'd rather be on their screens 24-7.

 

[dmtaylor]

We need to be realistic regarding brewery numbers.

2024 - 9,922
2023 - 9,906
2022 - 9,824
2021 - 9,384
2020 - 9,092
2015 - 4,841
1976 - 103

Even if we see a 10% decline we are still talking 9,000 breweries.

What no one wants to say (but some have already and I'll point it out again):

Of those 9922 breweries, about half of them produce only 10+ variations on IPAs or slushies or sours, and maybe 1 or 2 crappy "lagers". No other styles.

I hope those places die first, dammit.

 

[mac_1103]

they're not going out to get trashed in the woods and get into trouble

Well TBH those were not exactly my proudest moments.

 

[dmtaylor]

Well TBH those were not exactly my proudest moments.

But it's such an important part of being a human being on this planet! To NOT do those things and get into occasional trouble..... we're evolving into an inferior species!!!

 

[mac_1103]

Getting into occasional trouble is one thing. Stumbling around in the dark and vomiting on your friends' shoes is another.

 

[Agent]

What no one wants to say (but some have already and I'll point it out again):

Of those 9922 breweries, about half of them produce only 10+ variations on IPAs or slushies or sours, and maybe 1 or 2 crappy "lagers". No other styles.

I hope those places die first, dammit.

I tried out a place who's brand was making classic beers with a new twist.

That new twist was heavily dry hopped with NZ hops, and maybe some lactose or a fruit flavor.

I was a sad panda.

 

[dmtaylor]

I tried out a place who's brand was making classic beers with a new twist.

That new twist was heavily dry hopped with NZ hops, and maybe some lactose or a fruit flavor.

I was a sad panda.

Soon as I saw "new twist" I'd run away fast.

 

[JohnDBrewer]

In terms of hobbies, all hobbies seem to be falling off. My wife quilts, my car club, etc., are all falling off. This goes for the homebrew and other hobbie stores.

On the brewey side, this is a typical business cycle. Maybe a bit distorted because COVID, but still typical. It's overbuilt, a bunch will fall out, consolidation is happening and the market will find equilibrium. I also think folks are holding on to their cash a bit harder, so $6+ pints are not helping demand. Now it comes down to business skills and some luck for a lot of these breweries and the homebrew shops that are left. If there is a favorite brewery or homebrew shop you like, vote with your money. Focus your cash on your favorites.

 

[user 348755]

I think it's a healthy market development. The times are over when one could excite the whole town with a very hot IPA or hazy. It's nice to have a good IPA but the market does not need twenty of them, from which the half is probably poorly executed.

People want quality. Coors and bud is high quality stuff, that's why they are selling. Granted, the specific type of beer might be too bland for some, but within the realm of light lager, their stuff is high quality.

The breweries that will produce high quality and also balanced brews as their staples, will win. Not too much into the extremes. Obviously for the same of our there can be special editions or seasonal brews or whatnot, but the core moneymakers should be balanced stuff that is of high quality. This sells and I want to drink that . I don't want twenty hasty iPas. I want a bitter, a IPA, a session apa and maybe a saison. Not high abv. Normal saison.

Maybe the people are scared of brewing normal brews because it's easy to see when they mess them up.

There is something to this and what I have been trying to say is that I think the downturn is largely due to bad beers or beers that are not true to style. Anecdotal again, but many of the long term beer drinkers I know, even the ones that have worked in the industry are going back to the macros because at least they know what to expect when they buy those products. Nothing worse than playing roulette in a market where many breweries don't even try to brew to style.

 

[user 348755]

What no one wants to say (but some have already and I'll point it out again):

Of those 9922 breweries, about half of them produce only 10+ variations on IPAs or slushies or sours, and maybe 1 or 2 crappy "lagers". No other styles.

I hope those places die first, dammit.

I'm all for bad brewers with no respect for tradition, going under. I think i could have avoided all this by placing an question mark at the end of my post title.

 

[mac_1103]

I think the downturn is largely due to bad beers or beers that are not true to style. Anecdotal again, but many of the long term beer drinkers I know, even the ones that have worked in the industry are going back to the macros because at least they know what to expect when they buy those products. Nothing worse than playing roulette in a market where many breweries don't even try to brew to style.

I think we need to understand and accept that we are not typical beer drinkers, and therefore not the demographic that most brewers are targeting. The overwhelming majority of customers in any given brewpub on any given day don't know a damned thing about what is true to style beyond light lager and maybe IPA. They read the descriptions and decide if they think a brew is something that they'd like to try. Then that beer becomes representative of the style for them. If they like it they might try one again at another place some day. If they hate it they'll never touch anything with a similar name again. If they have too many consecutive bad experiences, they'll just give up on craft beer altogether.

 

[worlddivides]

What no one wants to say (but some have already and I'll point it out again):

Of those 9922 breweries, about half of them produce only 10+ variations on IPAs or slushies or sours, and maybe 1 or 2 crappy "lagers". No other styles.

I hope those places die first, dammit.

You say that, but those are what sells.

And I'm not saying that to be like "that's all that they should make."

My favorite style of beer is sours, the sourer the better. My favorite sub-category is probably Gueuze, and my favorite Belgian brewery is probably Cantillon. But that's not a recipe for success for the vast majority of breweries.

I actually went to 3 different craft beer taprooms tonight, and all three were super crowded. All three were mostly IPAs and lagers, though the first place had a fruit weizen and the third place I went to had two barleywines (but everything else was IPAs - and the IPAs were amazing too, so I'm not bashing them for that).

But one of my favorite craft beer places has 30 taps. They generally only have about 20 of them used and typically only use all 30 for events, but even if 20 or 30 are open, they might have 1 stout or porter on tap. And I find that sad, but it's just a reflection of them putting what sells on tap. They recently started putting tape over each tap that says when the keg was put in. And guess what, the main lager was put in yesterday and the traditional sour was put in 2 months ago. This West Coast IPA was put in 2 days ago, this hazy IPA was put in yesterday, and this experimental saison was put in 1 and a half months ago.

 

[VTMongoose]

I believe overnutrition is contributing to the younger generation's reduced interest in beer. Human beings for millenia didn't just rely on beer as a source of sanitary water but as a source of literal energy as well. One of the main reasons alcoholics perish is actually malnutrition as alcohol replaces food as their primary source of energy and the oxidative burden outstrips the body's ability to regenerate protein and antioxidants like glutathione due to a literal lack of circulating precursors/nutrients, and alcohol-seeking sadly becomes tied to the body's desire for energy and alcoholics are genetically prone to this interplay.

Overweight-obesity is at all time highs right now and people have little need for more energy. The powerful new class of drug, GLP-1 agonists, has been shown to markedly reduce alcohol use through its amplification of incretins. This confirms that the reward sensation of alcohol is tied to its calorific content. Beer has the highest number of calories and carbohydrates per unit of alcohol of any type of conventionally produced fermented alcoholic beverage, while spirits and seltzers have the least. To me, it makes logical sense.

Not only that, the absence of carbohydrates and dissolved proteins in said beverages increases the speed at which they can be assimilated, compared to beer, where carbohydrates, in the context of someone in a carbohydrate/caloric surplus, possibly with a bit of diabetes and insulin resistance, delay gastric emptying.

 

[FloppyKnockers]

I believe overnutrition is contributing to the younger generation's reduced interest in beer. Human beings for millenia didn't just rely on beer as a source of sanitary water but as a source of literal energy as well. One of the main reasons alcoholics perish is actually malnutrition as alcohol replaces food as their primary source of energy and the oxidative burden outstrips the body's ability to regenerate protein and antioxidants like glutathione due to a literal lack of circulating precursors/nutrients, and alcohol-seeking sadly becomes tied to the body's desire for energy and alcoholics are genetically prone to this interplay.

Overweight-obesity is at all time highs right now and people have little need for more energy. The powerful new class of drug, GLP-1 agonists, has been shown to markedly reduce alcohol use through its amplification of incretins. This confirms that the reward sensation of alcohol is tied to its calorific content. Beer has the highest number of calories and carbohydrates per unit of alcohol of any type of conventionally produced fermented alcoholic beverage, while spirits and seltzers have the least. To me, it makes logical sense.

Not only that, the absence of carbohydrates and dissolved proteins in said beverages increases the speed at which they can be assimilated, compared to beer, where carbohydrates, in the context of someone in a carbohydrate/caloric surplus, possibly with a bit of diabetes and insulin resistance, delay gastric emptying.

Plus, beer doesn't have a lot vitamins in it. That's why you have to drink so much of it.
#science

 

[lumpher]

I think the perception that it's a dying art is that in the past, it was a fad. Many people were jumping on the bandwagon. We continually get new recruits, but so many people stop because of lack of dedication, money, time, etc. I think the number of homebrewers has somewhat stabilized to those of us that enjoy it. Sure, there is fluctuation, and very few LHBS's are still around, but that's merely because of convenience of online, or with people like me, we have moved too remote to be within 3 hours on an LHBS . Too easy to order online and have it dropped at my door...

 

[Jim R]

I also think folks are holding on to their cash a bit harder, so $6+ pints are not helping demand.

It is often $7-$10 pints and then the server flips the iPad around asking for a 18%, 20% or 22% tip for their 30 second pouring time. Most people can't afford to drink.

 

[tenordrummer4life]

It is often $7-$10 pints and then the server flips the iPad around asking for a 18%, 20% or 22% tip for their 30 second pouring time. Most people can't afford to drink.

It's for this reason alone that I got into homebrewing. Even when you go to the store, $10-20 for a quality craft 6-pack is much less enticing than $25ish for a case of beer that you made at home. That, plus the added incentive of having a slow, creative activity away from electronics and social media, has kept me going for 3 years now.