What no one wants to say

[user 348755]

Craft beer is declining. Homebrewing is dying. The macros are gaining market share while small breweries are closing. Everytime someone brings this up, there's alwasy somebody around to point out that this isn't true. But when compared to it's heyday, craft is on a major decline.

In my area, three micros closed their doors in the last year and the two closest to me are hurting and have too much debt. The largest homebrew shop near me has closed after 20 years of service at that location and another big one only opens once a week and has been sold and moved to another area.

The kids aren't drinking as much, the adults are sick of weird beers and are going back to BMC and the only thing on the shelves is an endless selection of terrible IPAs.

I don't care if this gets heat, I know a lot of people don't like to talk about it, but when an industry that was started by your local HBS largely only exists online, it's bad. There are any factors, but I think the major one is that most micros simply don't make good beer. It was enough when the market was growing and people were experimenting and willing to try anything, but these days, your roasted coffee oatmeal sour milk stout isn't going to pay the bills. I think a lot of people are being alienated by brewers with an endless appetite for innovation and wonky creativity and almost no regards for traditional processes, balance and quality control. I went on a mini beer pilgrimage not too long ago and of about 15 different styles of beer I drank, I remember only 3 or 4 that were well balanced, well elaborated and didn't suffer from some sort of defect. Unfortunately, I don't think this is going to change any time soon when brewers seem to take more pride in pushing every convention to it's limit more than they take pride in selling a second serving of the same beer.

Anyway, rant over. I'll go back into hiding for now.

 

[jdauria]

I mean pretty sure a lot of people have been saying this, and you're right. I mean the surge of breweries in last 20 years was crazy with every one thinking they could open a brewery.. Guy in my club who made decent sour beers literally opened a sour brewery and we all laughed about it. But shockingly it is doing decently. However he just closed his tap room. .It was only a matter of time before there was retraction, yet, at least here in Mass, there are still plenty of breweries making mediocre beer that are somehow still hanging on. We have seen the decline in stores for several years now, as craft beer shelf space got smaller and smaller as first seltzers and then craft cocktails took over the space. The young kids these days, to them beer is what old men drink and while they still might crush a cash of Coors to get drunk, they are more focused on weed, microdosing mushrooms and cocktails, or not drinking at all.

Covid killed a lot of smaller homebrew clubs, my club which was 30 members strong pre-Covid is down to 6 diehards and 2 or 3 stragglers who show up once in a blue moon. Our LHBS closed 3 years ago, leaving no real homebrew shop south of Boston except a guy who runs a shop out of his garage on weekends only, a liquor store with brewing supplioes and a brewery who runs a small shop, but none of those are anywhere close. Without a shop, which used to host our meetings, there is no way for us to really draw in new members. Our club tried to bring back our homebrew festival for charity, that before Covid saw 500+ tickets sold, this year we only had 19 sold a week before and wound up canceling. Also seeing it on the competition circuit, a lot of comps are not filling up as fast as last few years and one comp, that usually has 300 entries, only had a 103 this year. Comps are also struggling getting judges, not as many people are becoming certified judges, and those who do have to wait months for their test to be graded, which does not help.

As for home brewing, I brewed for 3 years before my LHBS opened by buying stuff online, so while losing the shop hurts, it has not slowed me down, I brew just as much as I did before. But now, I plan my next 4 batches out and make one order so that I am not paying shipping costs 4 seperate times. I get my hops in bulk for the most part from Yakima Valley and buy yeast directly from White Labs and build up starters in order to use that yeast multiple times

 

[worlddivides]

Any data to back that up instead of just anecdotes? Homebrewing may or may not be on the decline compared to, say, a few years ago, but it's certainly not "dying." Beer is the third most drunk beverage on the planet (when you don't include water), after tea and coffee.

When is this "heyday" you speak of? 2015, for example? From what I can see, that was a major record. It was the first time the US had more than 4,000 breweries since the 1870s and was a landmark.

On the other hand, the latest data I can find is from last year, 2024. And sadly enough, the number of breweries has majorly fallen... to 9,796. Wait, that's more than double what it was in 2015! And the Brewers Association mentioned that craft beer's retail dollar value rose to an estimated $28.8 billion, a 3% increase over the previous year.

So basically the reason no one wants to say that is because it isn't true.

There were tons of breweries closing in 2015, and now there are more than double as many breweries, so obviously more breweries would be closing.

 

[mac_1103]

Everytime someone brings this up, there's alwasy somebody around to point out that this isn't true.

Really? ISTM that this is pretty much agreed on around here.

But when compared to it's heyday, craft is on a major decline.

It's called a bubble. The decline was inevitable. And predicted. The question is (and always was) where does it stabilize?

 

[corncob]

I have thought for a long time that craft beer went terminally wrong when ipas became mainstream enough to crowd out other styles in grocery stores. Lack of options I want to drink available at convenient retailers means I only ever drink coors, Guinness, and homebrew.

 

[dmtaylor]

The bubble has burst. Only the strong shall survive. The way it should be, unfortunately for most.

 

[user 348755]

Any data to back that up instead of just anecdotes? Homebrewing may or may not be on the decline compared to, say, a few years ago, but it's certainly not "dying." Beer is the third most drunk beverage on the planet (when you don't include water), after tea and coffee.

When is this "heyday" you speak of? 2015, for example? From what I can see, that was a major record. It was the first time the US had more than 4,000 breweries since the 1870s and was a landmark.

On the other hand, the latest data I can find is from last year, 2024. And sadly enough, the number of breweries has majorly fallen... to 9,796. Wait, that's more than double what it was in 2015! And the Brewers Association mentioned that craft beer's retail dollar value rose to an estimated $28.8 billion, a 3% increase over the previous year.

So basically the reason no one wants to say that is because it isn't true.

There were tons of breweries closing in 2015, and now there are more than double as many breweries, so obviously more breweries would be closing.

See, this is why we can't have nice things. We can't even state an obvious fact without someone getting defensive about it. The very source you state, the brewers association, attributes the increase in dollar sales to large scale price increases, not a growing market. In fact the share of craft has dropped by over 13% in 2024 and trends with the previous 4-5 years. You know. You pulled the data from the same source and omitted the context and most telling parts. A 13% decrease in market share.mifht not mean much to you, but it is a trend and it has a very real effect on the ground. My anecdotes might be just that to you, but around here and in many other markets they are a reality that can't be ignored by cherry picking stats that suit you. The main point of my post is that there's a major market rationalization and consolidation that is affecting brick and mortar local HBSs and that the big brewers are gaining market share over the small local brewers. If I extend my radius even a couple dozen miles, the number of closures and breweries for sale increase dramatically. If the market is no longer supporting their local brewers while they flock back to the macros, this can only mean that the micros are not providing what the market wants. We're not even close to realizing why if we can't mention it without being piled on.

 

[user 348755]

The bubble has burst. Only the strong shall survive. The way it should be, unfortunately for most.

I think that's fine. The ones surviving are the ones making a product people actually want to buy. No sympathy for bad brewers. OTOH, the mass closing of local HBS does point to a major downturn or at least a consolidation towards the top.

 

[user 348755]

I have thought for a long time that craft beer went terminally wrong when ipas became mainstream enough to crowd out other styles in grocery stores. Lack of options I want to drink available at convenient retailers means I only ever drink coors, Guinness, and homebrew.

I also think they are habituating their clients to a subpar product that leads people into other segments. In trying to imitate fruit juices by adding tons of fruit instead of doing it through careful hop and yeast selection and proper processes, consumers are getting used to flavor bombs that eventually lead them towards seltzers and mixers and away from traditionally brewed beers.

 

[user 348755]

Really? ISTM that this is pretty much agreed on around here.

It's called a bubble. The decline was inevitable. And predicted. The question is (and always was) where does it stabilize?

See above to know what I am talking about. Whenever someone does say this, somebody else just flat out denies it's happening.

Yes it's a bubble. It will never completely die, but it is consolidating and the macros are taking it back through acquisitions and growing market shares.

 

[FloppyKnockers]

Geographical location dependent, I'm sure. Around here, craft beer is alive and well. The homebrew shops are good and the taprooms are crowded as soon as they open.

 

[worlddivides]

See, this is why we can't have nice things. We can't even state an obvious fact without someone getting defensive about it. The very source you state, the brewers association, attributes the increase in dollar sales to large scale price increases, not a growing market. In fact the share of craft has dropped by over 13% in 2024 and trends with the previous 4-5 years. You know. You pulled the data from the same source and omitted the context and most telling parts. A 13% decrease in market share.mifht not mean much to you, but it is a trend and it has a very real effect on the ground. My anecdotes might be just that to you, but around here and in many other markets they are a reality that can't be ignored by cherry picking stats that suit you. The main point of my post is that there's a major market rationalization and consolidation that is affecting brick and mortar local HBSs and that the big brewers are gaining market share over the small local brewers. If I extend my radius even a couple dozen miles, the number of closures and breweries for sale increase dramatically. If the market is no longer supporting their local brewers while they flock back to the macros, this can only mean that the micros are not providing what the market wants. We're not even close to realizing why if we can't mention it without being piled on.

But my point is that the "heyday" you mention had a fraction of what there is now. I used 10 years ago, 2015, as a potential year you might be considering the "heyday." But the number of craft breweries has continued to drastically and drastically increase. That obviously cannot keep up forever. Even if craft beer had a MASSIVE drop in sales and tons of craft breweries shut down, there'd still be more sales and way more breweries than what you're referring to as the "heyday."

I'm not claiming that craft beer's popularity is going to keep growing and growing and in 10 years from now, there'll be 20,000 breweries in the US or anything like that. I just find those claims to be unsupported by the evidence (I'm only talking about craft beer. I'm not making any claims about homebrewing except that it's laughable to think that it's "dying." I can definitely see it on the decline as a result of Covid, for example). And sales may decline. But even if the number of breweries falls by 30%, we'll still have more than whenever that "heyday" was... unless you think the heyday was a year or two ago.

 

[mashdar]

FWIW, "market share" is a meaningless statistic. Did the market get bigger, or did revenue go down? In this case, it sounds like the pie got bigger. (Hopefully the revenue figures being thrown out are in real dollars.)

I also don't think revenue is a particularly useful metric. Profit and cash flow are what really matter. I'd much rather make 30% net on $1,000,000 than 3% net on $10,000,000.

All worlddivides said is you haven't shared any data, and shared some. I'm open to the idea that the sky is falling, but you haven't produced any clear evidence. If your argument is that "it's obvious and anyone who disagrees is an [ad hominem]", that's not really the type of argument that flies around these parts.

 

[VTMongoose]

IMO, the craft beer boom/bubble permitted mediocre breweries to exist.

I am optimistic that the beer scene will be far better on the other side of the "recession" we're currently in. While beer is certainly in a decline, it will never go away, and we are objectively, worldwide, producing the highest quality beer we have ever produced.

I have been certified with BJCP and judged homebrew competitions for only 3 years now, and any beer judge could tell you that during the past 5 years, the overall quality of entries has increased dramatically, and the competition has gotten fierce.

We have never had this amount of brewing knowledge and science so readily available, and so frequently discussed. This is not an industry that keeps secrets. When have we ever had such availability of speciality, high quality ingredients, yeast strain selection, as we have now? I can put together a recipe for any style I've never brewed before down to the appropriate water chemistry with the right AI prompt and probably get pretty close. Micros have this same knowledge available to them. And this is not the only key to success.

Better breweries:
1) Have sustainable business practices, and manage their debt well
2) Make good beer
3) Adapt to changes in consumer preferences
4) Have a good, inviting location, that offers an experience that caters to their local demographic

The breweries that are dying are missing the mark on more than one of the above. I've seen it countless times. I've seen great breweries with good beer fail because their location was terrible. Breweries that made terrible beer last way longer than they should have because they had a killer location, managed their debt well, kept themselves the right size, etc.

Why did Anchor die while New Belgium has seen a crazy rise in success? Really, it's the same answer as why Chili's is booming right now and Red Lobster is dying.

 

[sibelman]

Trends (fads?) come and go. Beer, including interesting beer, will survive though many businesses will fail.

The strong tendency for businesses to grow at one another's expense does tend to snuff out the little/local ones. And internet commerce continues to eat brick-and-mortar's lunch. This isn't unique to beer-related business.

The biggest problems this could cause for me as a homebrewer: shipment of perishables (liquid yeast!), and shipping cost (sacks of grain!). Here in Beervana, I'm still blessed with two fine LHBS and a wealth of local breweries and taprooms. But I do understand the pain of loss for so many of us who have been seeing their locals shut down.

btw, if folks want to drink less beer, or drink beers I don't enjoy, that's what they should do. I see little point in blaming anyone for that.

Cheers!

 

[user 348755]

Really? ISTM that this is pretty much agreed on around here.

It's called a bubble. The decline was inevitable. And predicted. The question is (and always was) where does it stabilize?

See above to know what I am talking about. Whenever someone does say this, somebody else just flat out denies it's happening.

Yes it's a bubble. It will never completely die, but it is consolidating and the macros are taking it back through acquisitions and growing market shares.

I mean pretty sure a lot of people have been saying this, and you're right. I mean the surge of breweries in last 20 years was crazy with every one thinking they could open a brewery.. Guy in my club who made decent sour beers literally opened a sour brewery and we all laughed about it. But shockingly it is doing decently. However he just closed his tap room. Another club It was only a matter of time before there was retraction, yet, at least here in Mass, there are still plenty of breweries making mediocre beer that are somehow still hanging on. We have seen the decline in stores for several years now, as craft beer shelf space got smaller and smaller as first seltzers and then craft cocktails took over the space. The young kids these days, to them beer is what old men drink and while they still might crush a cash of Coors to get drunk, they are more focused on weed, microdosing mushrooms and cocktails, or not drinking at all.

Covid killed a lot of smaller homebrew clubs, my club which was 30 members strong pre-Covid is down to 6 diehards and 2 or 3 stragglers who show up once in a blue moon. Our LHBS closed 3 years ago, leaving no real homebrew shop south of Boston except a guy who runs a shop out of his garage on weekends only, a liquor store with brewing supplioes and a brewery who runs a small shop, but none of those are anywhere close. Without a shop, which used to host our meetings, there is no way for us to really draw in new members. Our club tried to bring back our homebrew festival for charity, that before Covid saw 500+ tickets sold, this year we only had 19 sold a week before and wound up canceling. Also seeing it on the competition circuit, a lot of comps are not filling up as fast as last few years and one comp, that usually has 300 entries, only had a 103 this year. Comps are also struggling getting judges, not as many people are becoming certified judges, and those who do have to wait months for their test to be graded, which does not help.

As for home brewing, I brewed for 3 years before my LHBS opened by buying stuff online, so while losing the shop hurts, it has not slowed me down, I brew just as much as I did before. But now, I plan my next 4 batches out and make one order so that I am not paying shipping costs 4 seperate times. I get my hops in bulk for the most part from Yakima Valley and buy yeast directly from White Labs and build up starters in order to use that yeast multiple times.

I appreciate the honesty but I do think it's kind for taboo to talk about, even it if has been said a number of times.

I started working in the industry in the early 1990's before the major boom and got out of it in the early 2000's just before it really took off. Now that I'm homebreweing again, it's actually harder to find HBSs locally than it was back then. I tried to support my local HBS as much as I could but whatever is causing this downturn, it is very real and it is concerning from a Homebrewers standpoint. So while it won't stop me and I'll keep brewing, the reason I made the post is that this is becoming and undeniable fact and yet, whenever we talk about it, there's a lineup of people ready to tell us that we're not seeing what we're seeing. In the end, I don't care about stats or how much beer is being sold because that doesn't offset the very real losses locally and of craft breweries and local HBS stores are dying, then it's safe to say craft beer is dying.

 

[Willy]

Having been around a while... And seen several boom/bust periods in the commercial beer market... Beer is going to be fine. It is a cyclical industry that had grown way too fat, and is clearly in a downward phase. So, we repeat history and many smaller, less viable, or debt heavy business won't survive the contraction. The last time we had a huge contraction was during the late 70s & early 80s. Budweiser had put the sword of great marketing into play and some huge players got hurt. Remember Schlitz? Used to be #1. They failed on a crossover to HFCS (high fructose corn syrup) that the consumer hated, like New Coke on steroids.

Also in the mix is banks. They were happy to lend to small craft beer businesses and I am quite sure that $$$ has dried up leaving many unable to renew or refinance a loan coming due. They can see what is happening and are much more reluctant to lend to that business sector. Meanwhile... The big boys, who know the business have been waiting on this and are ready to buy up the best pieces for a great price.

The malt houses and milling operations will do okay and weather the storm. Their business just shifts to provide more agricultural feed that grains for beer.

As for the homebrew market - sheesh, we have it so good now. Back in the day... The only home brew options were getting extract in a can or making your own three tier setup with old kegs. No internet, your on your own with a few books that are usually dated. Yes... Losing a bunch of LHBS - but that is to be expected. Not a very big market and business contractions come hard and fast to the little guys without a big backstop of capital.

 

[Bobby_M]

Craft beer is declining. Homebrewing is dying. The macros are gaining market share while small breweries are closing. Everytime someone brings this up, there's alwasy somebody around to point out that this isn't true. But when compared to it's heyday, craft is on a major decline.

In my area, three micros closed their doors in the last year and the two closest to me are hurting and have too much debt. The largest homebrew shop near me has closed after 20 years of service at that location and another big one only opens once a week and has been sold and moved to another area.

The kids aren't drinking as much, the adults are sick of weird beers and are going back to BMC and the only thing on the shelves is an endless selection of terrible IPAs.

I don't care if this gets heat, I know a lot of people don't like to talk about it, but when an industry that was started by your local HBS largely only exists online, it's bad. There are any factors, but I think the major one is that most micros simply don't make good beer. It was enough when the market was growing and people were experimenting and willing to try anything, but these days, your roasted coffee oatmeal sour milk stout isn't going to pay the bills. I think a lot of people are being alienated by brewers with an endless appetite for innovation and wonky creativity and almost no regards for traditional processes, balance and quality control. I went on a mini beer pilgrimage not too long ago and of about 15 different styles of beer I drank, I remember only 3 or 4 that were well balanced, well elaborated and didn't suffer from some sort of defect. Unfortunately, I don't think this is going to change any time soon when brewers seem to take more pride in pushing every convention to it's limit more than they take pride in selling a second serving of the same beer.

Anyway, rant over. I'll go back into hiding for now.

You have misinterpreted the temperature of the topic. Everyone's talking about it and no one is avoiding it.

There are a lot of theories about why things are declining and it's probably a little of everything.

From a specific beer consumption perspective:
A large portion of craft enthusiasts are aging out. They are both dying and getting to the age where they have to curb their drinking.
The lower calorie seltzers have grabbed some attention from people trying to avoid or crawl out of obesity.
Cannabis legalization spreading across the U.S. is driving a different intoxicant market across all demographics but especially the younger 20 somethings that are just getting into such vices.
From a specific home brewing perspective:
"DIY" or artisan crafts are falling out of favor. They had a big renaissance in the early 2Ks with home makeover, glass blowing, sword blacksmithing, etc... reality shows. I think COVID was the peak with everyone taking up sour dough bread baking. After that ended, people decided to NOT do that.
Everyone basically went back to work. Low unemployment rates starting in 2022 really drove homebrewing down and that has always been the case. Here's my little show and tell. The blue line is the U.S. unemployement rate and the red is my estimate of homebrewing activity/spending having been in the business since 2009.

 

[Bobby_M]

See above to know what I am talking about. Whenever someone does say this, somebody else just flat out denies it's happening.

One poster in this thread is dubious. That doesn't make a topic taboo by a long shot.

 

[mac_1103]

the mass closing of local HBS does point to a major downturn or at least a consolidation

Maybe you haven't noticed, but local every kind of stores have been experiencing a major decline for several decades. Much more consolidation than downturn. And of course, everyone bemoaning the loss of mom and pop stores has been shopping at Walmart pretty much ever since Walmart showed up. Why should beer be different?

getting to the age where they have to curb their drinking

My father lived to almost 99 and never really curbed his drinking. I guess that's mostly because he never really was all that big a drinker to begin with. But if anything his consumption actually increased once he finally stopped working. A glass of home made wine with lunch instead of just with dinner and a wee bit of whisky (or whiskey) after dinner several times a week. I hope to emulate his drinking if not his longevity.

 

[Willy]

Here are some nice graphs/charts showing the US beer industry since 1874.
Charts of the Day: Welcome to the ‘Golden Age of American Craft Beer’ | American Enterprise Institute - AEI https://share.google/S1uyZMiTKIexAEvza

 

[Bobby_M]

When any industry sees sustained growth, it will inevitably get over inflated as the masses want a piece of the action. It's not dying because of mediocre beer. It's retracting due to over saturation. In fact, it has been over saturated for a long time but investors didn't notice for a while and continued pumping money into breweries that either shouldn't have been opened in the first place or would have otherwise run out of money if said investor wasn't hell bent on owning a piece of a cool business.

Anyone that thinks a single beer style fad or trend killed the demand is mistaken. Hazy IPA, for example and one that purists love to hate, practically drove the last 3-4 years of growth. Um, Tree House, Other Half, Trillium, and add another 20 places printing money on hazy sales beg to differ.

There was a time where demand for craft was a LITTLE higher than it is right now but there were half as many breweries. Finding a cool spot was an achievement for the craft hunter. On the way up, any homebrewer that successfully made one batch of beer cashed in their 401K early and put a 3 barrel into some industrial suite in the middle of nowhere and that was just fine. The beer could be mediocre and the industrial space was cold and uninspired.

Ok, so who's going to survive the contraction in the objectively over served markets?

I've been floating set of metrics around in my head for a while.

Beer Quality and Consistency (0-10 point scale)
Taproom/Grounds Vibe (0-10 point scale)
Beer Variety, trend/fads vs classic styles (that conforms to the quality mark) (3-7 point scale)

If you rate any brewery across those metrics, if they land above a 5 they will probably make it. The variety part doesn't matter that much it's not nothing. If you ONLY serve hazies or the one attempt at a Pilsner is awful, it will hurt a bit.

In other words, if you have a quality of 3 but a vibe of 9, you're fine. The vibe will keep locals hanging out there despite the beer.
On the other hand, if you have amazing beer in a kind of sterile metal box of a building you'll at least get people traveling to try the beer and takeaway four packs.

Places like Tree House are killing it because I'd say their metrics are 8, 10, 7 for an average of 9.

Here in NJ we probably have 15/20 breweries too many. I have my ideas of who will be gone in another year.

 

[sibelman]

I don't care about stats

safe to say

I am quite sure

dying

dying

undeniable

Anecdotes, personal experience, best guesses are all fine. Talking gloom and doom too, I suppose.

Myself, I generally prefer data-driven analysis (kudos to Bobby's in-the-trenches business experience and to those posting charts and numbers!), and get more than enough doom and gloom from actual news.

RDWHAHB, folks.

 

[MaxStout]

Poorly-titled thread is poorly titled.

Many HBT members have been discussing this, often in-depth, for a year or two. The reasons for the decline are many and are well pointed out in above posts. It's been a perfect storm of hits against the perhaps over-popularity of craft beer and home brewing.

This could just be a market-driven course correction and we'll see craft beer head back to a core market. The salad days of craft beer and home brewing are 10-12 years behind us.

I live in a state with just under 6 million people and we have >200 breweries. That's just not sustainable anymore. It's sad to see someone's business fold, but there is a thinning of the herd going on.

 

[mac_1103]

See above to know what I am talking about. Whenever someone does say this, somebody else just flat out denies it's happening.

One skeptical response. Everyone else agrees with you. That doesn't come close to meaning that the topic is taboo (or justifying the title that you gave the thread).

 

[Willy]

One skeptical response. Everyone else agrees with you. That doesn't come close to meaning that the topic is taboo (or justifying the title that you gave the thread).

If you added some pickle juice, you'd get more vocal responses. Not that there is anything wrong with pickle juice. Ha

 

[Agent]

I live in a state with just under 6 million people and we have >200 breweries. That's just not sustainable anymore. It's sad to see someone's business fold, but there is a thinning of the herd going on.

Well.... a number of breweries that started with the hopes of distribution or multiple locations. Many have now pivoted to a brewpub license and are diversifying their income streams. Being able to basically spin up an up-scale bar without fighting for limited liquor licenses is a nifty benefit.

 

[mac_1103]

Not that there is anything wrong with pickle juice.

The pickle juice bubble has already burst. It's all down hill from here.

 

[Jim R]

We have 3 kids and 6 grandkids. None of them drink alcohol. None of their friends seem to have any interest in even social drinking. Almost all of them went to college and never drank to any degree in college. None of them learned how to even pour a tap beer in college. Quite a few of them won't even drink soda. The world is changing.

As I recall Millennials drink 20% less than Baby Boomers and Gen Z'ers drink 20% less than Milennials. That is a 40% drop in just 2 generations.

 

[sibelman]

40% drop

As I say to those who don't like sushi or single malt, more for the rest of us.

However, I can't drink as much as I once could - two beers, spread over about three hours in 8 ounce pours, most evenings. I hardly even touch my single malt collection, and I haven't gotten seriously or even moderately hammered since New Year's Eve just before the first Trump inauguration.

 

[corncob]

One facet of this not yet mentioned here is the 3 tier system. Retail is hard for little guys because of it. The big AB distributor has literal control of how much shelf space gets left for the craft guys. Actually, I wonder if the 3 tier is why we have a division between macro and craft at all. There are the guys who thrive in the system and the guys who the system strangles.

My wish, personally? I wish 50 small regional macros rise from the ashes of "craft beer" when it's all over. Decent beer, tolerable price, high level of variety, not driven by fads.

 

[MaxStout]

Well.... a number of breweries that started with the hopes of distribution or multiple locations. Many have now pivoted to a brewpub license and are diversifying their income streams. Being able to basically spin up an up-scale bar without fighting for limited liquor licenses is a nifty benefit.

I'm seeing the opposite happening here. Some breweries are closing taprooms/brewpubs and moving to a strictly production/distribution model. A handful of brewers and canning operators in a building in an industrial park vs. a dozen or more employees needed to run a taproom and food service in a desirable retail location.

Granted, it's a few data points, but I see the wisdom in the transition. Hard to make money selling pints and growlers.

 

[sibelman]

My wish, personally? I wish 50 small regional macros rise from the ashes of "craft beer" when it's all over. Decent beer, tolerable price, high level of variety, not driven by fads.

My wish is similar:

1. American light lager for those who want that,

2. your "small macros" for consistent, good beers for those who don't want BMC, and

3. small, experimental breweries to press the envelope and offer us the new, the weird, and sometimes, the wonderful.

We CAN have nice things.

 

[Pennine]

[

See above to know what I am talking about. Whenever someone does say this, somebody else just flat out denies it's happening.

Yes it's a bubble. It will never completely die, but it is consolidating and the macros are taking it back through acquisitions and growing market shares.

I appreciate the honesty but I do think it's kind for taboo to talk about, even it if has been said a number of times.

I started working in the industry in the early 1990's before the major boom and got out of it in the early 2000's just before it really took off. Now that I'm homebreweing again, it's actually harder to find HBSs locally than it was back then. I tried to support my local HBS as much as I could but whatever is causing this downturn, it is very real and it is concerning from a Homebrewers standpoint. So while it won't stop me and I'll keep brewing, the reason I made the post is that this is becoming and undeniable fact and yet, whenever we talk about it, there's a lineup of people ready to tell us that we're not seeing what we're seeing. In the end, I don't care about stats or how much beer is being sold because that doesn't offset the very real losses locally and of craft breweries and local HBS stores are dying, then it's safe to say craft beer is dying.

I definitely think home brewing as a hobby is taking a big hit in all of this. The plethora of beer options between local brew pubs, them selling packaged versions for home and the overall variety of beer available at most liquor stores is a real deterrent for more casual potential and former brewers. So maybe we should be blaming the rise in breweries for the death of homebrewing. I also say that tongue in cheek, homebrewing will just become a niche hobby like others.

From a home brew store standpoint the ones that have attached breweries or online ordering seem to be the ones holding on. Niche physical hobby shops are a hard business in today's environment. It's like music in a way, people have way more access to a larger variety of hobbies so online shops cater to larger markets.

Also a lot of home brewers are quitting because alcohol is not good for you and is a mother ****** to moderate for quite a few people.

 

[mac_1103]

We CAN have nice things.

We already DO have lots and lots of nice things. But humans like to whine.

 

[MaxStout]

Even with the decline in brewing we have FAR more choices now than we did just a few decades ago.

Twenty years ago, it was basically Summit and Surly in my town, held back by the state's archaic restrictions on taprooms. Within a few years that all changed.

Now, you can't swing a dead cat without hitting a brewery. Lots of them are serving great food, too. We'll no doubt continue to lose some breweries, but the ones that remain standing will be those that stay on top of things. Craft beer will keep losing some market share, but it's not going away. There will still be lots of good choices.

 

[sibelman]

We already DO have lots and lots of nice things. But humans like to whine.

I should've said, we can still have nice things.

And yes, I have lots and lots. Way more than enough. I try not to whine.

 

[CDS]

We have 3 kids and 6 grandkids. None of them drink alcohol. None of their friends seem to have any interest in even social drinking. Almost all of them went to college and never drank to any degree in college. None of them learned how to even pour a tap beer in college. Quite a few of them won't even drink soda. The world is changing.

As I recall Millennials drink 20% less than Baby Boomers and Gen Z'ers drink 20% less than Milennials. That is a 40% drop in just 2 generations.

Exactly. To me this is the biggest factor impacting sales and the hobby. It's a generational thing, and kids just aren't interested. And when they DO drink it's in moderation and it's more likely to be canned seltzers or ciders than craft beer. I've seen the craft beer section in my liquor store shrink by 50% over the past couple years as seltzers etc. take over the shelf space.
Not obvious at first, but very related is that people are relying more and more on doordash, ubereats, etc. to bring them pre-made meals, or going out to eat. They're not cooking anymore. I have seen first hand vibrant neighborhoods with fresh fruit markets, cheese and fish mongers and butchers slowly being transformed into just another strip of restaurants and bars. My point here is that if people aren't even cooking their own meals, what are the chances they're going to be interested in brewing their own beer?

 

[madscientist451]

What no one wants to say? All kinds of people have been saying it for years. But what does it matter? Everything is better when people stop worrying, relax, and have a homebrew.

 

[madscientist451]

Now, you can't swing a dead cat without hitting a brewery.

The image in my mind of swinging a dead cat (like a baseball batter warming up) just won't quit.
I'm going to crack open some HB barleywine I've been saving.....