The Rare Beer Bubble. When will it pop?

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When will the bubble pop?

  • Within a few months

    Votes: 3 2.4%

  • Within the next year

    Votes: 7 5.6%

  • Within two years

    Votes: 32 25.4%

  • Over two years

    Votes: 33 26.2%

  • Never. A bubble does not exist in the beer market

    Votes: 51 40.5%
  • Total voters
    126
Stevedore said:
No bubble. There will always be people with ridiculous amounts of money and nothing better (in their opinion) to spend it on.
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Precisely. If I was incredibly wealthy and buying a DQ for $2500 was the equivalent of a normal person going to Walmart and buying a pack skittles why wouldn't I?
 
I liked reading this thread, laughing at all the people who are clueless about pricing, and then I realized it was from 2014 and it made it even funnier because the same conversations are being had right now, all over. The bubble for rare beer is not going away, and the bourbon craze is starting to be affected by spillover from beer geeks.

Edited for my sanity
 
JulianB said:
Bumped for timeliness. Beer geeks seem to have lots their minds with regards to these Toppling Goliath stouts:

https://www.mybeercellar.com/?itm=34051

https://www.mybeercellar.com/?itm=33992

https://www.mybeercellar.com/?itm=32469
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giphy.gif
 
My guess would be at the next recession. As more people get into craft beer, and it becomes a popular hobby of men in their 30s, more demand and more enthusiasts (men in their 30s with cash to burn) enter the market. Since we live in a very competitive culture, dickswingers will continue to increase in number. I'm sure there was a time where pappy 23 could be acquired for less than two testicles and an arm.

I equate the rare beer market to a certain segment of the art market. I think that there will be a lot of failures in terms of new breweries, but the staples of rare beer will continue to rise in value (unless production for that beer increases). For example, if you are into movie posters, you've seen a massive increase in the amount of new posters done for old movies. (See mondotees.com). Since about 3 years ago, the amount of re-sellers has skyrocketed to the point of most new art being oversold and not holding value. Now those same noobies in the art world want to use their money to buy the piece they missed out on when they first entered the game. They will use their funds to join the rest of the party trying to acquire these prints, and along with the fact that there are less of them being offered for sale, this contributes to the "classics" being held in high value.

Another thing I'm having trouble understanding is why American AWAs trade so high. In my opinion, there are very few that even come close to lambic. Without going into detail, it is pretty easy to pay less for shelf lambic shipped to their door than they would pay for half-assed American wilds. Just my 2c.
 
I've said it before: I blame Pokemon.


I don't know whether it will ever pop, but I have personally felt a swing in the other direction over the past year. I don't get a thrill from chasing beer; I get frustration. I simply buy the best quality beers that are readily available, then I drink them. Highly enjoyable and more in line with my cavalier attitude and rugged good looks.
 
thejukes said:
I've said it before: I blame Pokemon.


I don't know whether it will ever pop, but I have personally felt a swing in the other direction over the past year. I don't get a thrill from chasing beer; I get frustration. I simply buy the best quality beers that are readily available, then I drink them. Highly enjoyable and more in line with my cavalier attitude and rugged good looks.
Click to expand...
Don't go dragging Pokemon's good name through the mud here. The last time I used "fly" with a Fou Foune I ended up sticky and sad. Pokemon outperfom whales in battle 10/10 times, unless you are using Magikarp for some reason.
 
jivex5k said:
Don't go dragging Pokemon's good name through the mud here. The last time I used "fly" with a Fou Foune I ended up sticky and sad. Pokemon outperfom whales in battle 10/10 times, unless you are using Magikarp for some reason.
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I'm too old for these references.

According to my younger brother: 1st edition Charizard or GTFO.




I think he is planning his retirement based on that card and maybe some beanie babies. Das one popped bubble, mane.
 
kindaphunky said:
My guess would be at the next recession. As more people get into craft beer, and it becomes a popular hobby of men in their 30s, more demand and more enthusiasts (men in their 30s with cash to burn) enter the market. Since we live in a very competitive culture, dickswingers will continue to increase in number. I'm sure there was a time where pappy 23 could be acquired for less than two testicles and an arm.

I equate the rare beer market to a certain segment of the art market. I think that there will be a lot of failures in terms of new breweries, but the staples of rare beer will continue to rise in value (unless production for that beer increases). For example, if you are into movie posters, you've seen a massive increase in the amount of new posters done for old movies. (See mondotees.com). Since about 3 years ago, the amount of re-sellers has skyrocketed to the point of most new art being oversold and not holding value. Now those same noobies in the art world want to use their money to buy the piece they missed out on when they first entered the game. They will use their funds to join the rest of the party trying to acquire these prints, and along with the fact that there are less of them being offered for sale, this contributes to the "classics" being held in high value.

Another thing I'm having trouble understanding is why American AWAs trade so high. In my opinion, there are very few that even come close to lambic. Without going into detail, it is pretty easy to pay less for shelf lambic shipped to their door than they would pay for half-assed American wilds. Just my 2c.
Click to expand...

What certain art market segment? Like the highest tier?
 
kindaphunky said:
My guess would be at the next recession. As more people get into craft beer, and it becomes a popular hobby of men in their 30s, more demand and more enthusiasts (men in their 30s with cash to burn) enter the market. Since we live in a very competitive culture, dickswingers will continue to increase in number. I'm sure there was a time where pappy 23 could be acquired for less than two testicles and an arm.

I equate the rare beer market to a certain segment of the art market. I think that there will be a lot of failures in terms of new breweries, but the staples of rare beer will continue to rise in value (unless production for that beer increases). For example, if you are into movie posters, you've seen a massive increase in the amount of new posters done for old movies. (See mondotees.com). Since about 3 years ago, the amount of re-sellers has skyrocketed to the point of most new art being oversold and not holding value. Now those same noobies in the art world want to use their money to buy the piece they missed out on when they first entered the game. They will use their funds to join the rest of the party trying to acquire these prints, and along with the fact that there are less of them being offered for sale, this contributes to the "classics" being held in high value.

Another thing I'm having trouble understanding is why American AWAs trade so high. In my opinion, there are very few that even come close to lambic. Without going into detail, it is pretty easy to pay less for shelf lambic shipped to their door than they would pay for half-assed American wilds. Just my 2c.
Click to expand...
Ha. I have quite a few Mondo posters... stopped buying them about the time you're talking about (~2 years ago) because they would sell out in approximately 1.2 seconds and 100 would show up on ebay 5 seconds later for 10x the price.

Did sell my Kill Bill Tyler Stout poster for $1300, lol. (paid $50).
 
Between 2006-2008 I talked to at least a dozen bar owners and liquor store managers who were certain that the craft beer market was at its saturation point. We were supposed to see widespread brewery closures and price stabilization. The exact opposite has happened.

To many, craft beer has recently become a staple, which is generally a good thing. But to a small group of others, craft beer has become a luxury item. Not in the fun "this is reasonably priced thing I enjoy" sense. More like in the Thorstein Veblen, status-infused sense. The products are desirable not because of the joy associated with consuming them, but because of the perceived effect they have upon the social status of their owners.

This type of status-driven consumption is obviously not enough to sustain an entire industry, which is what I think Michigan was getting at. I also think that lots of people who used to be moderately active in the trading scene, like several posters in this thread, have gotten creeped out by what the scene has become and so now focus their attention on locals. But I don't think this constitutes a "bubble." Instead, it's something like an alternate marketplace that used to overlap completely with more mainstream craft beer and is now drifting away and becoming its own thing. It will have peaks and valleys, but the general trend will continue to drift toward higher prices and greater exclusivity.
 
Dooley said:
Between 2006-2008 I talked to at least a dozen bar owners and liquor store managers who were certain that the craft beer market was at its saturation point. We were supposed to see widespread brewery closures and price stabilization. The exact opposite has happened.

To many, craft beer has recently become a staple, which is generally a good thing. But to a small group of others, craft beer has become a luxury item. Not in the fun "this is reasonably priced thing I enjoy" sense. More like in the Thorstein Veblen, status-infused sense. The products are desirable not because of the joy associated with consuming them, but because of the perceived effect they have upon the social status of their owners.

This type of status-driven consumption is obviously not enough to sustain an entire industry, which is what I think Michigan was getting at. I also think that lots of people who used to be moderately active in the trading scene, like several posters in this thread, have gotten creeped out by what the scene has become and so now focus their attention on locals. But I don't think this constitutes a "bubble." Instead, it's something like an alternate marketplace that used to overlap completely with more mainstream craft beer and is now drifting away and becoming its own thing. It will have peaks and valleys, but the general trend will continue to drift toward higher prices and greater exclusivity.
Click to expand...
Did you pick your username based off the red headed bully in King of the Hill?
 
i think the past few post have got it right. The bottle that are being brought for theses price are being bought by the same people who a couple years ago where then one's buying $1000+ bottles of wine. Most of these are being bought as status symbols to show off you have the latest and great thing at the moment. The same thing that happened to pappy.

Side note at these price i am surprised there is no provenance like there is for wine
 
Lutter said:
Ha. I have quite a few Mondo posters... stopped buying them about the time you're talking about (~2 years ago) because they would sell out in approximately 1.2 seconds and 100 would show up on ebay 5 seconds later for 10x the price.

Did sell my Kill Bill Tyler Stout poster for $1300, lol. (paid $50).
Click to expand...
I think it was kind of the opposite. Yes a few were up for high dollar but there are so many flippers now and more prints so I see a lot trying to turn a quick double profit. NICE JOB on the Kill Bill. My buddy sold a Moss Star Wars set and a Stout Star Wars set recently. Let's just say he got a lot for them. I sold all my prints in 2013, except for a few.
 
coldafpipes said:
What certain art market segment? Like the highest tier?
Click to expand...
Like signed and numbered prints from Mondotees, Obey, Mr. Brainwash, Olly Moss, Tyler Stout, concert posters. Check out expressobeans.com for a better idea.

For example, edition size of 450 signed and numbered prints, that go for $50-$200 a pop, sell out in a few seconds, then hit the second market on ebay etc. for double, triple, or more.
 
kindaphunky said:
I think it was kind of the opposite. Yes a few were up for high dollar but there are so many flippers now and more prints so I see a lot trying to turn a quick double profit. NICE JOB on the Kill Bill. My buddy sold a Moss Star Wars set and a Stout Star Wars set recently. Let's just say he got a lot for them. I sold all my prints in 2013, except for a few.
Click to expand...
I remember I got snockered the night before the Stout Star Wars set went on sale and was sooo pissed that I slept through it.

A friend of mine has the metal T2 Stout print. GOD KNOWS what that would pull!
 
I literally made a living for a year on nothing but playing with 5K in the stock market ( banking industry recession rebound), and flipping prints. Oh those were the days. Freedom at its finest. Sitting in the living room watching TV, getting alert from a certain Firefox add-on, and jumping on the computer for 5 minutes. All while in a robe sipping craft beer. #hardknocklife
 
BeerMeBrah said:
Does anyone else find it hilarious that someone paid almost $1,000 for an adjunct stout that's two years old and probably nothing like what it once was? KBBS is one of the most ridiculous beers ever and I'll never understand it.
Click to expand...
I haven't had KBBS, but I have had Assassin and it didn't really enlighten me to a new level of mind and body.

I mean for $1000, the hooker will swallow and you could opt into the "butt stuff" extra.
 
Lutter said:
I haven't had KBBS, but I have had Assassin and it didn't really enlighten me to a new level of mind and body.

I mean for $1000, the hooker will swallow and you could opt into the "butt stuff" extra.
Click to expand...

Man, someone's got champagne taste. You can get into a pro's butt around here for $300 easy, not that I would know...
 
Lutter said:
I haven't had KBBS, but I have had Assassin and it didn't really enlighten me to a new level of mind and body.
Click to expand...
You tried the 'coach' level of TG stouts mang - doesn't compare to 'first class' or even 'business class'


Realtalk:
Older vintages of Assassin may have been a bit better but I've only had the '14 and it's practically nothing like '13 MD or '13 KBBS (not as good by far)
 
I liked '13 MD when I had it last year at Huna Day, but was so unimpressed with it relative to the hype that I haven't felt any interest or need to chase any of the other TG stouts.
 
Lutter said:
I haven't had KBBS, but I have had Assassin and it didn't really enlighten me to a new level of mind and body.

I mean for $1000, the hooker will swallow and you could opt into the "butt stuff" extra.
Click to expand...
I thought 13 and 14 were exceptional stouts, but new, amazing stouts come out all the time. The field is growing and pedigree for TG and others is diluting. Nothing is really worth tweaking your nipples over anymore. If you have the chance? Go for it.
 
sacrelicio said:
I thought 13 and 14 were exceptional stouts, but new, amazing stouts come out all the time. The field is growing and pedigree for TG and others is diluting. Nothing is really worth tweaking your nipples over anymore. If you have the chance? Go for it.
Click to expand...
When BCBS is a country-wide release and you can easily get a case, I don't understand getting worked up over any BA stout. When replacement level is that high, it's just stupid.
 
stupac2 said:
When BCBS is a country-wide release and you can easily get a case, I don't understand getting worked up over any BA stout. When replacement level is that high, it's just stupid.
Click to expand...
And with the popularity, enough local breweries release decent to excellent BA stouts...what's the point of chasing any one of them? Same with IPAs. Luckily it leads us full circle, back to old fashioned trading: my favorite locals for yours.
 
sacrelicio said:
And with the popularity, enough local breweries release decent to excellent BA stouts...what's the point of chasing any one of them? Same with IPAs. Luckily it leads us full circle, back to old fashioned trading: my favorite locals for yours.
Click to expand...
So you're willing to trade Sierra Nevada Torpedo for Bourbon County Coffee or did I once again misunderstand? I do have access to Torpedo and can ship Tuesday.
 
jbeezification said:
So you're willing to trade Sierra Nevada Torpedo for Bourbon County Coffee or did I once again misunderstand? I do have access to Torpedo and can ship Tuesday.
Click to expand...

I know you're trying to make a point, but...

1) He probably has access to Torpedo
2) He probably has access to beer comparable to Torpedo
3) Torpedo isn't your local, or even really A local

All of which support his original statement. This is why I rarely trade anymore -- everything I have >= anything on the FT forums.
 
Last edited:
Arbitrator said:
I know you're trying to make a point, but...

1) He probably has access to Torpedo
2) He probably has access to beer comparable to Torpedo
3) Torpedo isn't your local, or even really A local

Both of which supports his original statement. This is why I rarely trade anymore -- everything I have >= anything on the FT forums.
Click to expand...
Prove it.
 

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