The Rare Beer Bubble. When will it pop?

[Michigan1]

If you are still denying the existence of a bubble in the rare beer market, I think you're blind.

When a beer like KBBS is released at $12/bottle, and sells less than a week later for $520, that's a bubble. And this is not an isolated incident. We continue to see more and more "instawhales" each month. Double Barrel Huna, Armand & Tommy, Grrrz, Very Sour Blackberry, Fuzzy, 2013 MD and KBBS, Barrel Aged Dark Lords, BA Abraxas, Double Barrel Damon, etc. These used to get mocked and belittled, but we are seeing less of that lately and more acceptance of the inflated value. This is a great case of the Greater Fool Theory. It's sustainable as long as we continue to live in the delusion that a 12oz bottle of a BA stout can be worthy of a ~4500% value increase in a few days.

So when will it pop? When will we see beer investors jumping off the skyscrapers they work in? When will we see people who spend $5000 trying to corner a market, forced to use their investment to bathe their kids because their water was shut off? (ok... That's an exaggeration)

When it pops, will the pop ripple out to the rest of the craft beer market? Will we see breweries closing? Will we see less experimentation?

Just because you can pour it into a glass, doesn't make it a liquid asset.

 

[abecall98]

I think over the span of two years, every brewery from the middle of nowhere will start doing these "rare beer releases" and eventually it will get old and people will start to care less. I think there will always be a small minority of people who have to try every little beer that gets hyped, but I also notice a lot of the guys who traded a lot the past couple of years slowly stop caring as much as they did. Once more people have their really rare beer brewed by their local, they may realize it's just ****ing beer and stop paying 500 hunnid bux for some ******* 12 ounce bottle of beer. Beers get hyped and eventually die down.

But what the **** do I know? I stopped caring for beer trading over a year ago after everybody pretty much demanded way over $4$ for their 12 ounce beer made from maple leaves or some **** like that. I just stopped caring and started just stocking up on **** I can get locally, which has improved tremendously in the past couple years, so maybe that helped steer me away from trading too.

 

[lb304854]

Yesterday.

And breweries significantly undervalue their own beers so your numbers can be thrown out.

 

[Michigan1]

Yesterday.

And breweries significantly undervalue their own beers so your numbers can be thrown out.

Are you saying Toppling Goliath should sell KBBS closer to the market value? I'd love to see a beer release (other than Dave) have a price per bottle of $500!

 

[lb304854]

Are you saying Toppling Goliath should sell KBBS closer to the market value? I'd love to see a beer release (other than Dave) have a price per bottle of $500!

Closer? Yes absolutely.

 

[jakeox]

If you are still denying the existence of a bubble in the rare beer market, I think you're blind.

When a beer like KBBS is released at $12/bottle, and sells less than a week later for $520, that's a bubble. And this is not an isolated incident. We continue to see more and more "instawhales" each month. Double Barrel Huna, Armand & Tommy, Grrrz, Very Sour Blackberry, Fuzzy, 2013 MD and KBBS, Barrel Aged Dark Lords, BA Abraxas, Double Barrel Damon, etc. These used to get mocked and belittled, but we are seeing less of that lately and more acceptance of the inflated value. This is a great case of the Greater Fool Theory. It's sustainable as long as we continue to live in the delusion that a 12oz bottle of a BA stout can be worthy of a ~4500% value increase in a few days.

So when will it pop? When will we see beer investors jumping off the skyscrapers they work in? When will we see people who spend $5000 trying to corner a market, forced to use their investment to bathe their kids because their water was shut off? (ok... That's an exaggeration)

When it pops, will the pop ripple out to the rest of the craft beer market? Will we see breweries closing? Will we see less experimentation?

Just because you can pour it into a glass, doesn't make it a liquid asset.

The bubble you're referring to affects only people who treat their beer as investments or buy and sell at those prices. There's no reason that a crash in that market would affect breweries at all. They're just not related.

This bubble doesn't affect me much either since I'm not interested at those prices.

Let it crash and screw over the prospectors and flippers. That would be great for breweries and the rest of us beer nerds.

 

[Lutter]

I think KBBS is a fluke, since the bottle count was so infinitesimally small.

What is going to crash is A) shitty local producers as the market becomes more savvy. B) mid-size breweries that expanded too fast as there is more of a shift to "local" product. C) Mid-range priced beers. You'll see big gains in $12 6-packs and $30 750ml bombers. It's basically going to become more like the liquor market. No one is going to want to be in the murky middle.

Local local local.

 

[regularjohn]

i was saying this months ago, just goes to show that brewery only release doesn't mean dick anymore, TG decided to do small distro to avoid a **** show at their brewery and the demand for their stouts are still retarded high, since hunah day was a joke too cigar city is gonna distro hunah but im sure the value will remain the same

 

[ApocalypseZombie]

If you are still denying the existence of a bubble in the rare beer market, I think you're blind.

When a beer like KBBS is released at $12/bottle, and sells less than a week later for $520, that's a bubble. And this is not an isolated incident. We continue to see more and more "instawhales" each month. Double Barrel Huna, Armand & Tommy, Grrrz, Very Sour Blackberry, Fuzzy, 2013 MD and KBBS, Barrel Aged Dark Lords, BA Abraxas, Double Barrel Damon, etc. These used to get mocked and belittled, but we are seeing less of that lately and more acceptance of the inflated value. This is a great case of the Greater Fool Theory. It's sustainable as long as we continue to live in the delusion that a 12oz bottle of a BA stout can be worthy of a ~4500% value increase in a few days.

So when will it pop? When will we see beer investors jumping off the skyscrapers they work in? When will we see people who spend $5000 trying to corner a market, forced to use their investment to bathe their kids because their water was shut off? (ok... That's an exaggeration)

When it pops, will the pop ripple out to the rest of the craft beer market? Will we see breweries closing? Will we see less experimentation?

Just because you can pour it into a glass, doesn't make it a liquid asset.

You've never had a hobby before, have you?

 

[bathroomlaughter]

when some disaster befalls the midwest and they can no longer trade beers

 

[ApocalypseZombie]

i was saying this months ago, just goes to show that brewery only release doesn't mean dick anymore, TG decided to do small distro to avoid a **** show at their brewery and the demand for their stouts are still retarded high, since hunah day was a joke too cigar city is gonna distro hunah but im sure the value will remain the same

KBBS wasn't distro'd. Silent release at TG where they took your drivers license number so you could only buy 1.

 

[regularjohn]

KBBS wasn't distro'd. Silent release at TG where they took your drivers license number so you could only buy 1.

oh was it assassin then? i could've sworn hearing that tg was gonna avoid brewery only release this year

 

[ApocalypseZombie]

when some disaster befalls the midwest and they can no longer trade beers

Right. That must be the solution. Congrats, you fixed beer.

 

[ApocalypseZombie]

oh was it assassin then? i could've sworn hearing that tg was gonna avoid brewery only release this year

Yeah, that was Assassin. A roughly 2500 bottle of highly rated BA stout spread across 3 states.

 

[regularjohn]

Yeah, that was Assassin. A roughly 2500 bottle of highly rated BA stout spread across 3 states.

alright so i got kbbs and assassin mixed up with distro and brewery only, but does my point still remain valid? assassin got distro and people still want you to give up your left nut for it

 

[ApocalypseZombie]

alright so i got kbbs and assassin mixed up with distro and brewery only, but does my point still remain valid? assassin got distro and people still want you to give up your left nut for it

Depends on your definition of left nut. If you mean trading like other low bottle count/highly rated BA stouts, then I guess. In the current beer market, if there's less than 5k bottles it's going to command something. There are too many traders sitting on too much beer now. This is a thing and it won't go away until people drink their cellars. Tickers gotta tick and many have the ammo to do so.

 

[SeaWatchman]

Who cares?

 

[regularjohn]

Who cares?

 

[Treebs]

I think we've already seen it. You have breweries like Green Man and Pizza Boy/Al's pumping out world class sours (supposedly) and no one gives two shits about them. Transient Artisan Ales just had their first bottle release here and very few people outside of Illinois even know who they are. In both instances they are low bottle count (under 500), popular styles (wild ales/saisons) and still they are flying under the radar. I think the established players will stay, but there are too many new breweries opening up to give a **** about. I like that. The tickers and dick swingers are the only ones that will lose out on this adventure.

 

[MordorMongo]

When people realize mead is better.

 

[yamar68]

 

[sacrelicio]

If you are still denying the existence of a bubble in the rare beer market, I think you're blind.

When a beer like KBBS is released at $12/bottle, and sells less than a week later for $520, that's a bubble. And this is not an isolated incident. We continue to see more and more "instawhales" each month. Double Barrel Huna, Armand & Tommy, Grrrz, Very Sour Blackberry, Fuzzy, 2013 MD and KBBS, Barrel Aged Dark Lords, BA Abraxas, Double Barrel Damon, etc. These used to get mocked and belittled, but we are seeing less of that lately and more acceptance of the inflated value. This is a great case of the Greater Fool Theory. It's sustainable as long as we continue to live in the delusion that a 12oz bottle of a BA stout can be worthy of a ~4500% value increase in a few days.

So when will it pop? When will we see beer investors jumping off the skyscrapers they work in? When will we see people who spend $5000 trying to corner a market, forced to use their investment to bathe their kids because their water was shut off? (ok... That's an exaggeration)

When it pops, will the pop ripple out to the rest of the craft beer market? Will we see breweries closing? Will we see less experimentation?

Just because you can pour it into a glass, doesn't make it a liquid asset.

The cellars will pop. Dudes who hoarded and overpaid on the secondary market will go bust. Good beer will get easier to find with larger releases and more good locals.

 

[regularjohn]

When people realize mead is better.

i wont be convinced until i try some of that schramm's mead everyone is raving about

 

[LukeAleTime]

The cellars will pop. Dudes who hoarded and overpaid on the secondary market will go bust. Good beer will get easier to find with larger releases and more good locals.

I've said it before, and I'll say it again, I worry for the bottles people are cellaring. In 10-15 years time there is going to be so much shitty oxidized beer for trade.

 

[sacrelicio]

I've said it before, and I'll say it again, I worry for the bottles people are cellaring. In 10-15 years time there is going to be so much shitty oxidized beer for trade.

I think it'll happen sooner, with guys going "****, I have so much beer and no money...I gotta sell this stuff" and not being able to make their money back.

 

[harrymel1]

I think over the span of two years, every brewery from the middle of nowhere will start doing these "rare beer releases" and eventually it will get old and people will start to care less. I think there will always be a small minority of people who have to try every little beer that gets hyped, but I also notice a lot of the guys who traded a lot the past couple of years slowly stop caring as much as they did. Once more people have their really rare beer brewed by their local, they may realize it's just ****ing beer and stop paying 500 hunnid bux for some ******* 12 ounce bottle of beer. Beers get hyped and eventually die down.

But what the **** do I know? I stopped caring for beer trading over a year ago after everybody pretty much demanded way over $4$ for their 12 ounce beer made from maple leaves or some **** like that. I just stopped caring and started just stocking up on **** I can get locally, which has improved tremendously in the past couple years, so maybe that helped steer me away from trading too.

So much this.

Beer from outside my distro was much more appealing when it wasn't like being the only hot chick at a frat party - constantly having to deal with the concerns of rape.

I partially agree with lurchingbeast's sentiment that brewers often times undervalue their product. That being said, the beer community is finicky with their dollar. I say this keeping in mind that many breweries have to depend on their local market for survival, unlike Hill Framsteed and maybe even de Garde. With this considered, I think deciding on a price point becomes difficult. If it sits on the shelves, it's no longer "rare" and if it's gone too quickly, the brewer doesn't produce enough or are trying to drive the value up.

That last sentence really defines the trade community for the last 2 years, if not longer IMO.

I like beer from other places, but I will be goddamned if I am willing to pay more for a bottle stateside (with a few exceptions) than I am for a bottle shipped from another continent.

****ing beer. Gawd I hate it.

 

[Lutter]

You're a moron if you invest long-term in beer that's not Gueuze. In my experience, that's the only stuff that's going to last in the long haul.

 

[harrymel1]

You're a moron if you invest long-term in beer that's not Gueuze. In my experience, that's the only stuff that's going to last in the long haul.

How many years have you aged gueuze?

 

[Lutter]

How many years have you aged gueuze?

I'm horrible at aging anything outside my stomach.

 

[JM03]

I've never cared about any of this. I guess I don't take this "hobby" as serious as many do. Never understood the need for people to pay crazy amounts or trade ridiculous quantities of beer just to tick 1 beer. I'm happy stopping at the grocery store and picking up a 6er of a fresh local ipa. I guess I'm saying there is no bubble as far as I'm concerned because I dont care to look for one

 

[Romulux]

Bubble popping is not cool. Michigan , please

 

[brooklyn]

So much this.

Beer from outside my distro was much more appealing when it wasn't like being the only hot chick at a frat party - constantly having to deal with the concerns of rape.
it.

wait, did you just directly compare actual rape to the trading of beer?

 

[SeaWatchman]

You're a moron if you invest long-term in beer.

FTFY

 

[MordorMongo]

You're a moron if you invest long-term in beer that's not Gueuze. In my experience, that's the only stuff that's going to last in the long haul.

Yeah I feel for all those dumb cock-suckers that aged M and MMM.

****ing *****ebags.

 

[stupac2]

I think the problem Michigan cites could go on for quite some time, for a simple reason: there's a sucker born every minute.

As long as idiots keep paying those prices then people provide the supply. Since this behavior is already manifestly idiotic I don't think we can confidently predict that it will stop any time soon, since idiots are going to be idiots.

 

[drbenzo1]

How sad this would be for the FB ISO:FT
Dick swing-ling-ing and trade rape would crash and they would prob have to close their doors... So sad

*the other sites ISO:FT could be used also

Have their been bubbles and crashes in the wine markets? Has that data been accessed? Just curious

 

[drbenzo1]

If someone drinks a rare beer by them selves does it make a sound?

 

[Michigan1]

If someone drinks a rare beer by them selves does it make a sound?

Paging Joel66

 

[lb304854]

When people realize mead is better.

Dude, what part of not ****ing talking about it is that?

 

[MordorMongo]

Dude, what part of not ****ing talking about it is that?

It was a serious error in judgment. Thank god you didn't quote it and attract double the attention to it!