yeahfairly
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I've got 4 lbs of cascade in the freezer that I got for $4.99 a pound.... Scourer the internet for the really good deals and buy in bulk when you find the....
The craft beer bubble is busting.
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I've got 4 lbs of cascade in the freezer that I got for $4.99 a pound.... Scourer the internet for the really good deals and buy in bulk when you find the....
Lefou
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No, but I HAVE bought drinkable Chimay dubbel for about $14 off the shelf at one of our local stores. That was a one-off lark simply to get an idea of taste and for a fleeting vicarious sensation of supporting the monks.
Would I do it regularly or fit myself into the mold of a Dark Lord fan?
Not only no, but hell no. It's one reason I brew my own.
Hah. The Grand Reserve is one of my favorite beers. But when the price went past $12 I couldn’t justify it anymore. Local store recently add them for $9.50 a bottle. Had plenty and wish I would have bought a few cases. I’m all for supporting the Abbey, but not at the expense of needing the Abbey to support me.
Numsquat
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Where I live (NW Florida), there are 2 micro breweries. One serves food, the another not. But the non-food is more outdoor focused, is encouraging our local brewclub, is partnering with local food trucks, and making a great go at rotating 8 taps. The micro is still mostly a taphouse with some of their beers mixed in and a nice indoor food and entertainment area. Two different business plans and they are across the d=street from each other. In the area (30ish miles) there are another 6 breweries, all doing well in their business plans. One I am a mug club member (Spahr brewing) because they are lager and Belgium focused the right way. Overall they seem to be thriving, either locally, distribution or both. Florida laws still need need to change to help but loal laws seems to change faster than state, which is cool.
When I lived in Iowa, small breweries were popping up, even in towns of less than 1000 persons.
It seems local breweries are growing, regional and national breweries are snuggling with expansion or being bought out. Even in my home town in central Kansas (pop. 12000) has a local brewery and I think locals will continue to grow until the bubble burst, when average to crappy breweries die out. Good local breweries can easily sustain if the local population buys in.
When I lived in Iowa, small breweries were popping up, even in towns of less than 1000 persons.
It seems local breweries are growing, regional and national breweries are snuggling with expansion or being bought out. Even in my home town in central Kansas (pop. 12000) has a local brewery and I think locals will continue to grow until the bubble burst, when average to crappy breweries die out. Good local breweries can easily sustain if the local population buys in.
dwhite60
Well-Known Member
Thirty years ago when the whole "craft beer" thing got started there was something in the market that there isn't today, LOYALTY.
Had a guy that's part owner of a small local brewery explain this to me.
His two partners were all gung-ho about opening a brewery and knew they'd make a killing. This guy didn't give up his day job being a lot more realistic. They make a good product but, they have no customer loyalty and that's not their fault.
There's so much variety out there now that consumers have a pint or two and then scurry off in search of the latest banana, coconut cream, tangerine, okra porter with Amarillo, Cascade, Centennial, Cluster, Norther Brewer, Fuggle, EKG, Saaz hops, pine needles, oak leaves, and fermented in a seasoned charred balsa wood cigar box.
You got to have loyalty to survive. Unless YOU are keeping your customers making the latest and greatest taste sensation, they're going to look elsewhere.
Look at the one-gallon brewing movement. A large number of people that do this do it to keep a variety of flavors on hand.
It's like dating, you better make yourself something extra special to keep him or her because the ocean is FULL of them and they're easier to find and get than ever.
All the Best,
D. White
Had a guy that's part owner of a small local brewery explain this to me.
His two partners were all gung-ho about opening a brewery and knew they'd make a killing. This guy didn't give up his day job being a lot more realistic. They make a good product but, they have no customer loyalty and that's not their fault.
There's so much variety out there now that consumers have a pint or two and then scurry off in search of the latest banana, coconut cream, tangerine, okra porter with Amarillo, Cascade, Centennial, Cluster, Norther Brewer, Fuggle, EKG, Saaz hops, pine needles, oak leaves, and fermented in a seasoned charred balsa wood cigar box.
You got to have loyalty to survive. Unless YOU are keeping your customers making the latest and greatest taste sensation, they're going to look elsewhere.
Look at the one-gallon brewing movement. A large number of people that do this do it to keep a variety of flavors on hand.
It's like dating, you better make yourself something extra special to keep him or her because the ocean is FULL of them and they're easier to find and get than ever.
All the Best,
D. White
I hear it all the time from sales people.
Make a call to a check on a tap at a customer bar. "Hey, how'd xyz beer do?"
"Oh it sold like mad! Fastest keg ever we moved!"
"That's awesome, do you want another couple kegs of it?"
"Nah, our customers only want new beer. What else ya got?"
And if you don't always have a brand new flashy one-off to offer, there goes that tap line, and once it's gone it's hard to get it back.
Makes it real tough for the larger breweries.
Admittedly I know very little about business (and several other things..brewing comes to mind). Isn’t this like most business though? Trying to predict trends to stay ahead or corner niche markets? Seems like the companies I’ve seen fold were either stagnant in their offerings or lacked a combination of cust. service and quality product. If someone has been making the same good beer for 30-40 years, but now I have 20-30 beers to try of the same style that are just as good..its time to “compellingly incubate orthogonal collaboration and idea-sharing”.
TY corporate BS Generator.
Oh it's very much requiring larger breweries to redo their strategies.
It's also generated a bit of a pushback (Flagship February and the like) that probably won't go anywhere.
The bigger issue is that like at home, in commercial breweries things need dialing in. And when you're always doing something different, you can't dial things in. The overall quality goes down.
It's the cultish craft beer drinker community wanting NEW NEW NEW while also bitching about bad beer shooting themselves in the foot.
njviking
Well-Known Member
So, when will the bubble burst and why?
Everything is finite and it will burst at some point.
I go to breweries all the time (travel a lot) and most are passable, some terrific and some are utter garbage. ( Just like most industries) .
I see this industry getting gimmicky real quick. I realize you need to be fresh in approaches to gain market share; but will you be able to retain? I might try a vegan milkshake , lemongrass, anjeo pepper, tumeric pilsner finished in oak nail barrels. Hell I might even like it; but how many would and how many will buy again and again.Would said beer be your go to? Then to be ahead of the curve you get more gimmiky. When is it still called beer ?
On the flip side; how many Ipa's from every brewery taste the same? Looking at my local beer place I see Bells, Founders, Lagunitas, Shipyard, Cigar City, Sierra Nevada, Firestone, Oscar Blues, Stone, Visctory, Elusain, Descuttes, Troegs, Terripan, etc etc etc...
They all have basically a 3c, amarillo, simcoe, citra, Ipa offering. So why am I inclined to choose one over the other.
I dunno, but something will give sooner or later.
Everything is finite and it will burst at some point.
I go to breweries all the time (travel a lot) and most are passable, some terrific and some are utter garbage. ( Just like most industries) .
I see this industry getting gimmicky real quick. I realize you need to be fresh in approaches to gain market share; but will you be able to retain? I might try a vegan milkshake , lemongrass, anjeo pepper, tumeric pilsner finished in oak nail barrels. Hell I might even like it; but how many would and how many will buy again and again.Would said beer be your go to? Then to be ahead of the curve you get more gimmiky. When is it still called beer ?
On the flip side; how many Ipa's from every brewery taste the same? Looking at my local beer place I see Bells, Founders, Lagunitas, Shipyard, Cigar City, Sierra Nevada, Firestone, Oscar Blues, Stone, Visctory, Elusain, Descuttes, Troegs, Terripan, etc etc etc...
They all have basically a 3c, amarillo, simcoe, citra, Ipa offering. So why am I inclined to choose one over the other.
I dunno, but something will give sooner or later.
The problem here is the average homebrewer and average craft drinker tend to diverge. To many craft drinkers there simply is no "go to" any more, regardless of how good it is. They already tried it. Why would they drink it again? But as has been mentioned already (maybe not in this thread) the increasing prevalence of 1 gallon brewers shows the same general trend in thought (obviously that can't be applied completely to everyone).
Bud Light, Coors Light and Miller Lite started out as Budweiser, Coors Banquet and Miller High Life. Miller was the first to figure out that by reducing the fermentables by 20% they could produce a 4% ABV beer instead of a 5% beer, promote the hell out of it, and sell millions of gallons of water a year for the price of beer. Coors and A/B soon followed suit and also created massive ad campaigns to promote what was, essentially, watered down beer. Forty years into the Light Beer Era, those three brands still outsell everybody else by a wide margin, despite the fact that, in blind taste tests, light beer is pretty much light beer, regardless of the name on the label.
At some point, craft brewers are going to discover marketing, stop relying on word of mouth and hipsters looking for white whales, and someone will break away from the pack. Will that result in a massive shakeout in the craft beer segment? Maybe. OTOH, there might always be enough stubborn, independent thinkers, who like the idea of "drinking local", that there will always be a market for small scale, locally produced, thoroughly average beers. Time will tell.
+1.. There is no doubt that the market is 'maturing'. It is definitely expected. The growth is definitely slowing down as the markets saturate... The last 'boom' we had was in the mid 80's.. Up until then we were down to 105 breweries in the US.. That boom wasn't anything close to the size of the boom we are in now. It wasn't too long after that boom that the behemoths managed to crush the smaller brewers with huge money, powerful lobby, and questionable business practices. At least this time around, there is a growing amount of reform to protect the independents, and allow them to survive.
Want to see some interesting data? look at this - https://goo.gl/m31rZn
7,154 Open breweries in the US with 1,265 planned. Some of the areas are "catching up" to other states since some local laws have changed for them, allowing them to be viable. I live in Texas.. We are having one of the biggest booms of all the states. We currently rank 7th in the nation with open breweries (297) and we lead the nation with 148 in the planning stages. I have seen several breweries in the area close, but many more come online. Here, there has to be a choice made due to the laws (for now). You can be a brewery and sell to a distributor (and have no control how, or if your beer is sold), or you can be a brewpub and sell locally and in a tap room (but with less growth support and less beer volume). This can be difficult for the new breweries to manage.
Just like @day_trippr mentioned, it seems like a fluid market where small scale breweries can popup and go away quickly, just like the food business. It seems to be doing pretty well to me.
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3.89% (or so). 4.2% on the package, minus wiggle room allowed by TTB minus margin of error of equipment. They dilute to it so they can be really precise in their "imprecision" and waste exactly zero% on fermentables they aren't required to by law.
Or so the conspiracy theory goes.
bobeer
Fermentation Specalist
I'm seeing the "sister breweries" affecting the local "mom and pop" breweries. Stone and Sierra Nevada are 2 that come to mind off hand. We all love Stone and SN but stay on the west coast, please. We already get your beer here on the east coast, and our own beer industry is booming (finally!) and then bam. These 2 beer giants move in. Every beer drinker here was stoked except the smaller, and much much smaller, local breweries. IDK how this plays into the bubble bursting but figured it was worth a mention! Sort of reminds me of Walmart coming to down and putting everyone else out of business.
njviking
Well-Known Member
Very true. The fall out then is a brewer faces a no win situation.How can you market one off brews and sell them at a normal pint price point. Seems said brewers are paintin themselves into a corner and catering to a tiny niche inside an already small niche.
Speaking of that; one more thing to contemplate.
So 80% of beer consumed here in the states is from a bmc brewery. 20% is craft. Yet most craft breweries I go to do not try to get to the 80% market by offering a "cfraft bmc" type of beer? Seems to me that would be a market segment worth exploring.
Now I know most brewers don't have a miller lite clone as their top priority, but a nice light lager or ale should suffice. I do see attempts from brewers to do this sometimes leading into some sort of kolsch, heavy continental pilsner, or a blonde ale. I like them but when I take out clients, there are generally mixed responses leading us to a regular bar so they can have their favorite adjunct lager.
It isn't anywhere near that simple.. The brewers are obligated by law to sell to a distributor. The distributors are largely controlled by the behemoths, and protected by the ridiculous laws, and big money. Once a brewer signs with a distributor, he has no controls about how much, or even if, his beer is sold. The distributors even stock the shelves in the grocery stores themselves. Walk into a Walmart and look at the 80 foot long cooler stuffed almost completely with Budweiser brands. Then look at the 12 foot un-refrigerated shelf that has a half dozen other brands.
In 2016, Budweiser offered an 'incentive plan' (AKA a kickback) if the distributors would push InBev beers. The independent distributors aligned with AB InBev are contractually required to spend a certain amount each year to advertise AB InBev beers. AB InBev promised to refund 75 percent of this money if its beers make up 98 percent of the distributor’s sales. A distributor that would want to promote a craft beer would be also required to run an equal promotion for Budweiser, which becomes prohibitively expensive.
The deck is extremely tilted towards the corporate beer voltrons.
jonny24
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I think most places do that around here. Usually a Pilsner/Lager/Golden Ale. Beau's Lug Tread is one of the most ubiquitous craft beers in Ontario, and it's a Kolsch marketed as a Lagered Ale. A lot of wheat beers fall into this "easy drinking" category too.
Isn't the alcohol %age a minimum content?
Negative.
Serving a beer that's above listed ABV is equally as problematic as under the listed ABV. Especially when it comes to public intoxication and the like. A customer could blame the manufacturer in that case for being drunker than intended.
You're allowed a buffer on either side. TTB (federal) i believe is +/- 0.25% of what's on the label. States often have their own, most are less stringent. VA I think is +/- 0.5%. As long as beer never crosses state lines, only state law matters (in-state only doesn't require TTB label approval at all unless the state itself says otherwise). Once it's distroed out of state I presume it's whichever is strictest.
AB InBev was sued for misleading customers about alcohol content. I don't think it ever went any where. I know they denied it. The case was pretty weak.
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Ah my apologies, I just realized I mis-understood the original point by njviking, which is why don't the craft brewers brew a beer similar to the big volume rice beers. I live in the hot, deep south where there are quite a few lighter lagers made.. so around here, there are some lighter beers that would appease the bud / miller fans. I assume that the cooler the climates up north, would likely produce less of the lighter lagers.
I tried Beau's Lug Tread once when I was in western New York, it was an exquisite example of how full of flavor and character a lighter-bodied beer can be. It didn't remind me of Kölsch I've had in Germany, it had a more pronounced malt profile and a graham-like flavor. One hell of a standout in my beer memory considering I only had one.
I attempted a clone but didn't quite nail the characteristic flavor.
Yeah its a max. Some states have 3.2 and 6.0 beers. Beer up to 3.2% can be sold in grocery stores etc.. but anything over that has to be sold in a liquor store etc. (when I grew up, we always called it 6 point beer because most of the big brewers that were selling it were making it in that range, but it could have been higher.) There is some interesting info here - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_alcohol_laws_of_the_United_States
Gameface
Well-Known Member
www.hopsdirect.com
and it should be noted that a 1lb package of hops from hopsdirect.com usually has at least 18oz of hops in it. I've had a 1lb package with over 22oz of hops.
njviking
Well-Known Member
I wasn't even thinking nationally; I was more focused on local smaller breweries. But you are right. I can't possibly imagine how spendy it would be to bring a beer brand nationally. 10 years ago , maybe. Nobody gave this craze an afterthought. When Inbev started buying small breweries, you could perhaps say that the good old days were over.
Ironically the rat infested state I live in has self distribute laws, meaning no middleman. Straight to the end retailer.
Boy do I envy that. Here, brewers can sell to the public directly if they are declared a 'brewpub', but if they produce enough to be a 'brewery', then they can only sell to a distributor. The best workaround they could do is - on weekends, the breweries will host tours with music/food etc.. The tour comes with a few pint 'samples'.. Essentially people pay for the brewery tour and hang out through the afternoon like they would at a bar. It's better than nothing..but still ridiculous they have to go through that. We also have the fairly common blue law 'No beer sales before noon on Sunday'.. ugh..
In most states where you can self distribute it still isnt a great way to succeed. Lots of competition for shelves and bar taps. Plus you have to add a shipping and delivery service to your brewery. Your keg kicked on tuesday but you dont deliver until Thursday? Either send someone on a special run or watch the bar swap another keg into the lineup. Maybe they put you back on, maybe not. They only bought one keg from you ? Hope it also covered the cost of the tap handle you gave them....
Going for retail accounts? Better have slick packaging, a good story behind the brand, and strong sales support (promo materials, sales reps, etc). Often that means the backing of a distributor.
Trying to get some BMC drinkers? Never really works. That stuff isnt “beer” so much as a commodity alcohol malt drink. Fairly interchangeable. And eventually you’ll have to compete on pricing, where you cant win. So you market heavily? See above.
And yes, the $12 bomber is getting ridiculous. On very big beers, barrel aged, hop bombs, etc i get the reasoning. But still feel gun shy about paying 6-7-8 a pint when you’ve been burned a few times with crap beer. No easy solution there.
I hate to say it but i no longer buy beer from anyone i haven’t either had before or have heard lots of good things about, which tends to leave me with the mid level guys- SN, lagunitas, modern times, founders, etc etc. And even then i can get disappointed. Just tired of getting burned and feeing like i wasted my money. Which is probably pretty common these days.
Going for retail accounts? Better have slick packaging, a good story behind the brand, and strong sales support (promo materials, sales reps, etc). Often that means the backing of a distributor.
Trying to get some BMC drinkers? Never really works. That stuff isnt “beer” so much as a commodity alcohol malt drink. Fairly interchangeable. And eventually you’ll have to compete on pricing, where you cant win. So you market heavily? See above.
And yes, the $12 bomber is getting ridiculous. On very big beers, barrel aged, hop bombs, etc i get the reasoning. But still feel gun shy about paying 6-7-8 a pint when you’ve been burned a few times with crap beer. No easy solution there.
I hate to say it but i no longer buy beer from anyone i haven’t either had before or have heard lots of good things about, which tends to leave me with the mid level guys- SN, lagunitas, modern times, founders, etc etc. And even then i can get disappointed. Just tired of getting burned and feeing like i wasted my money. Which is probably pretty common these days.
With the exception of Sierra Nevada, aren’t all those breweries owned by ABINbev or Heineken?
I hear you though, $12 for potentially a drain pour is to much of a gamble for me. Unless I hear really good things about a brew, I’m not buying a bomber or a six pack.
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You're really quite lucky being so close to Frederick, MD. Brewer's Alley, Barley and Hops, and of course Flying Dog. Quite a nice beer scene in what used to be sleepy central Maryland!
Brooo Brother
TechFanMD
Well-Known Member
Those are a drop in the bucket these days. There are a ton of really great breweries now - a ridiculous amount for the size of the city.
I think the only craft(ish) breweries which have nationwide (or nearly) distribution, and are truly independent, are Sierra Nevada, Deschutes, New Belgium, and Boston Brewing (Sam Adams).
Stone.
You are not kidding!.. 7 breweries in the actual township for a town listed with 72k residents. Congrats!
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Olde Mother and Rockwell are new to me. I had some of Monocacy Brewing beers at the Maryland Brewer's Assn. get together a few years ago at Fell's Point in Baltimore and was favorably impressed. The Flying Barrel is a LHBS that used to be the only brew-on-premises place in the state. I still think Brewer's Alley (named after an alley where all the breweries in town were located) has a Kolsch that's equal to any I ever had in Cologne, and I've had many there.
Quiet little Frederick has quite a history and tradition of brewing as well as a vibrant restaurant scene. Neat town.
Brooo Brother
Bad Bubba
Well-Known Member
Thanks for the link. You can see why people have different perceptions. Colorado (where I am) has the second most combined breweries far outpacing more populous states like New York, New Jersey, Texas, etc. in fact, Colorado has about 40% of the number of breweries that California does but only about 1/8 th of the population. So what I see around here will be much different than what people see in Texas or Florida. I have seen many breweries close and I know of about 10 for sale.
The restaurant analogy is not always a good comparison. If you sell on premise only it may be comparable but the problem is you have limited ability to scale. So you will have high margins but low gross revenues. I have seen financials on several small breweries and gross revenues are under $400K per year- you can do the quick math and see you may be better off getting a job than opening a brewery. On the other hand breweries that want to drive their gross revenues up need to distribute their product and that is very much different than the restaurant business. Margins go down but you can drive revenue.
I know one brewer who has successfully started 3 breweries. Right now he has a small brewery and sells everything on premise. He wins awards at the GABF and has a nice following. He does well enough to make a good living. Selling at $4.50 a pint over the counter makes a nice profit.
The other people I know who are successful in the brewing business are well funded.
I think if I was opening a brewery in Colorado today I would look into outsourcing most of the brewing. That would lower the initial investment while establishing your brand.
There are two types of people in the world: those who divide the world into two types, and those who do not.
Nah. But among beer drinkers, I do think there are two basic types: Those who want something different all the time, and those who, once they find a good beer, will tend to keep ordering it. Or maybe a few good beers in rotation.
I'm more the second type. When I find a GREAT beer--whether I or someone else brewed it--I want to drink more of it. I like it.
I can't understand why people who, when they find a great-tasting beer, proceed to try something else for which the odds of meeting or exceeding the quality of that great-tasting beer are very low. Great is on one end of the distribution; try any random beer and you'll almost certainly be disappointed in comparison to that great beer..
I don't know if the motivation to try new things in the face of having found an outstanding beer is simply seeing who can taste more, or rate more on the online sites, or what. I'm not saying they shouldn't do it, I'm saying I cannot understand it.
I do like to see what's out there, but that's what flights are for. And in the end, I want a pint of a beer I know I want to drink, not something I'm going to wish I could pour into the nearest potted plant.
I'd love to have someone explain why the constant trying of new things. I'm not trying to denigrate those who do it, not at all; I'm just trying to get a handle on the motivation.
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Bell's?
I've never seen Bell's locally so I don't think they are quite nationwide.
To me,"nationwide" means the beer should be available in, at least, the larger cities of almost every state, if not in every convenience store or rural general store in flyover country. Here in Montana, if I’m at our farm, I can walk into the local Albertsons (in a town of 800 folks 150 miles from anything resembling a city) and find at least one style of beer from Sierra Nevada, Deschutes, New Belgium or Sam Adams. If I’m at our city house (in a metro area of 150K) the only places I’ve ever seen anything from Stone are a couple of specialty stores and I’ve never seen any Bell's anywhere.
If it's available in BF Nowhere it's distributed nationwide. If you have to go on a search for it in the largest city in the state it's a white whale. YMMV.
If it's available in BF Nowhere it's distributed nationwide. If you have to go on a search for it in the largest city in the state it's a white whale. YMMV.
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They're distributed in 39 of the 50 states by my count which is arguably nearly nationwide.
https://www.bellsbeer.com/beer-finder
