The craft beer bubble is busting.

[NGD]

com'on now..you know it's chicken feed! lol

edit: and i just brewed 3 batches for about 25 a piece for 10 gals, using breiss....so still cheaper then 15 for a 5 gal batch

I just took a hard look at my chicken feed...then walked away. No chicken poo brew for me. Thats awesome though! And the horses say “Nay!”

Never really sat down and crunched prices as I dont drink as often as I used to and get too much free beer as it is. Those are great prices compared to commercial brews.

Thank you for correcting me gentlemen.

 

[Kirkwooder]

But you start with horse feed......

That is what I meant by, being creative with what's in your environment.

 

[bracconiere]

it's 1:40pm i'm brewing, and up to a 6 pack....and find my self confused on the last two posts.....lol

1) i don't feed it too chickens first, so just sprouted barley, that's been dried, then lightly toasted at 150f for 12 hours....

2) 4 pages 152 posts, i must have missed something along the way.....

and many of these for effect....

 

[applescrap]

I buy my grain in bulk, so 5lbs of 2-row and 5lbs of wheat are $6.00 total. I buy my hops in bulk. if you look at hopsdirect.com right now, click on the HOP SALE tab and get all kinds of hops for $5-$10/pound. That makes 2oz of hops $1.25. Yeast on eBay runs from $1.30 to $6 a pack. Even if I go with a $5 yeast, that is just $12.25 total.

Nice form here. Need to check out yeast online.

 

[applescrap]

I just took a hard look at my chicken feed...then walked away. No chicken poo brew for me. Thats awesome though! And the horses say “Nay!”

Never really sat down and crunched prices as I dont drink as often as I used to and get too much free beer as it is. Those are great prices compared to commercial brews.

Thank you for correcting me gentlemen.

Yeah, us grain hawks arent foolin around. I am considering bulk dme, trading expense for convenience. Also nb deals on kits or something like that.

 

[Bad Bubba]

I am not sure that one brewery closing constitutes the bubble bursting. But I have seen many breweries close both here in Colorado and in California. There are a lot of reasons why they close and it is not usually they make bad beer. Right now the growth of craft beer sales is close to flat so in order to sell your product you need to take market share away from someone else. So we are moving from a growth market to a mature market. The craft beer business has gone through years of rapid growth and is entering a time where you have to be a little more nimble to survive. But that is the more normal way of all business. Craft beer is not going to become irrelevant but if you want to open a craft brewery today the challenges are going to be different from the guys who opened 10 years ago.

There a many different business models with different challenges and approaches. If you want to produce enough beer to distribute you are facing different challenges than the guy who sells all his beer on premise.

 

[day_trippr]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/mone...ands-more-than-7-000-breweries-us/2206013002/

Craft had a great growth year in 2017 of almost 6 percent. 2018 was somewhere around half of that depending on the particular metric (on vs off-premises, for instance). There are a lot of industries that would love to see 2.5-3% yearly growth...

Cheers!

 

[Calder]

How are you producing 30¢ homebrews? Wouldn’t that be ~$15 per 5 gal?

Bulk grain, and there are a lot of folks on here buying for a lot less than I do. 1 lb base malt = $0.90, 1 lb specialty malt = $1.30.

Bulk hops; generally run about 75 cents an ounce, some more, some less.

Reuse yeast. A yeast vial is probably used for up to 20 brews. I do need to use a starter occasionally to refresh it, so I assume $1.00 per batch for yeast. I have about 18 different yeasts that I pull from.

So, for a 1.056 OG 5 gallon Pale Ale:

8.5 lbs Base Malt = $7.30
1 lb Speciality Malt = $1.30
6 ozs hops = $4.50
Yeast = $1.00
Misc = $0.90 (salts, gelatin, fermcap, sanitizer, etc).

TOTAL = $15.00

50 bottles = $0.30 per bottle.

Belgians, even big ones are cheaper due to having lots of plain sugar, and not a lot of hops. Porters and Stouts are also cheaper due to low hop rates. IPAs are obviously more, due to high hopping rates and more grain.

 

[applescrap]

^^please share where you are getting 12 dollar pounds of hops!

 

[jturman35]

Someone said it before. 16 pages later the OP started this thread and hasn’t posted since!


Have any of you guys purchased a commercial $18 bomber that was barrel aged for 2 years only for it to be completely flat and undrinkable???

 

[yeahfairly]

^^please share where you are getting 12 dollar pounds of hops!

I've got 4 lbs of cascade in the freezer that I got for $4.99 a pound.... Scourer the internet for the really good deals and buy in bulk when you find the....

 

[Lefou]

Have any of you guys purchased a commercial $18 bomber that was barrel aged for 2 years only for it to be completely flat and undrinkable???

No, but I HAVE bought drinkable Chimay dubbel for about $14 off the shelf at one of our local stores. That was a one-off lark simply to get an idea of taste and for a fleeting vicarious sensation of supporting the monks.
Would I do it regularly or fit myself into the mold of a Dark Lord fan?
Not only no, but hell no. It's one reason I brew my own.

 

[NGD]

No, but I HAVE bought drinkable Chimay dubbel for about $14 off the shelf at one of our local stores. That was a one-off lark simply to get an idea of taste and for a fleeting vicarious sensation of supporting the monks.
Would I do it regularly or fit myself into the mold of a Dark Lord fan?
Not only no, but hell no. It's one reason I brew my own.

Hah. The Grand Reserve is one of my favorite beers. But when the price went past $12 I couldn’t justify it anymore. Local store recently add them for $9.50 a bottle. Had plenty and wish I would have bought a few cases. I’m all for supporting the Abbey, but not at the expense of needing the Abbey to support me.

 

[Numsquat]

Where I live (NW Florida), there are 2 micro breweries. One serves food, the another not. But the non-food is more outdoor focused, is encouraging our local brewclub, is partnering with local food trucks, and making a great go at rotating 8 taps. The micro is still mostly a taphouse with some of their beers mixed in and a nice indoor food and entertainment area. Two different business plans and they are across the d=street from each other. In the area (30ish miles) there are another 6 breweries, all doing well in their business plans. One I am a mug club member (Spahr brewing) because they are lager and Belgium focused the right way. Overall they seem to be thriving, either locally, distribution or both. Florida laws still need need to change to help but loal laws seems to change faster than state, which is cool.

When I lived in Iowa, small breweries were popping up, even in towns of less than 1000 persons.

It seems local breweries are growing, regional and national breweries are snuggling with expansion or being bought out. Even in my home town in central Kansas (pop. 12000) has a local brewery and I think locals will continue to grow until the bubble burst, when average to crappy breweries die out. Good local breweries can easily sustain if the local population buys in.

 

[dwhite60]

Thirty years ago when the whole "craft beer" thing got started there was something in the market that there isn't today, LOYALTY.

Had a guy that's part owner of a small local brewery explain this to me.

His two partners were all gung-ho about opening a brewery and knew they'd make a killing. This guy didn't give up his day job being a lot more realistic. They make a good product but, they have no customer loyalty and that's not their fault.

There's so much variety out there now that consumers have a pint or two and then scurry off in search of the latest banana, coconut cream, tangerine, okra porter with Amarillo, Cascade, Centennial, Cluster, Norther Brewer, Fuggle, EKG, Saaz hops, pine needles, oak leaves, and fermented in a seasoned charred balsa wood cigar box.

You got to have loyalty to survive. Unless YOU are keeping your customers making the latest and greatest taste sensation, they're going to look elsewhere.

Look at the one-gallon brewing movement. A large number of people that do this do it to keep a variety of flavors on hand.

It's like dating, you better make yourself something extra special to keep him or her because the ocean is FULL of them and they're easier to find and get than ever.

All the Best,
D. White

 

[Qhrumphf]

Thirty years ago when the whole "craft beer" thing got started there was something in the market that there isn't today, LOYALTY.

Had a guy that's part owner of a small local brewery explain this to me.

His two partners were all gung-ho about opening a brewery and knew they'd make a killing. This guy didn't give up his day job being a lot more realistic. They make a good product but, they have no customer loyalty and that's not their fault.

There's so much variety out there now that consumers have a pint or two and then scurry off in search of the latest banana, coconut cream, tangerine, okra porter with Amarillo, Cascade, Centennial, Cluster, Norther Brewer, Fuggle, EKG, Saaz hops, pine needles, oak leaves, and fermented in a seasoned charred balsa wood cigar box.

You got to have loyalty to survive. Unless YOU are keeping your customers making the latest and greatest taste sensation, they're going to look elsewhere.

Look at the one-gallon brewing movement. A large number of people that do this do it to keep a variety of flavors on hand.

It's like dating, you better make yourself something extra special to keep him or her because the ocean is FULL of them and they're easier to find and get than ever.

All the Best,
D. White

I hear it all the time from sales people.

Make a call to a check on a tap at a customer bar. "Hey, how'd xyz beer do?"

"Oh it sold like mad! Fastest keg ever we moved!"

"That's awesome, do you want another couple kegs of it?"

"Nah, our customers only want new beer. What else ya got?"

And if you don't always have a brand new flashy one-off to offer, there goes that tap line, and once it's gone it's hard to get it back.

Makes it real tough for the larger breweries.

 

[NGD]

I hear it all the time from sales people.

Make a call to a check on a tap at a customer bar. "Hey, how'd xyz beer do?"

"Oh it sold like mad! Fastest keg ever we moved!"

"That's awesome, do you want another couple kegs of it?"

"Nah, our customers only want new beer. What else ya got?"

And if you don't always have a brand new flashy one-off to offer, there goes that tap line, and once it's gone it's hard to get it back.

Makes it real tough for the larger breweries.

Admittedly I know very little about business (and several other things..brewing comes to mind). Isn’t this like most business though? Trying to predict trends to stay ahead or corner niche markets? Seems like the companies I’ve seen fold were either stagnant in their offerings or lacked a combination of cust. service and quality product. If someone has been making the same good beer for 30-40 years, but now I have 20-30 beers to try of the same style that are just as good..its time to “compellingly incubate orthogonal collaboration and idea-sharing”.

TY corporate BS Generator.

 

[Qhrumphf]

Admittedly I know very little about business (and several other things..brewing comes to mind). Isn’t this like most business though? Trying to predict trends to stay ahead or corner niche markets? Seems like the companies I’ve seen fold were either stagnant in their offerings or lacked a combination of cust. service and quality product. If someone has been making the same good beer for 30-40 years, but now I have 20-30 beers to try of the same style that are just as good..its time to “compellingly incubate orthogonal collaboration and idea-sharing”.

TY corporate BS Generator.

Oh it's very much requiring larger breweries to redo their strategies.

It's also generated a bit of a pushback (Flagship February and the like) that probably won't go anywhere.

The bigger issue is that like at home, in commercial breweries things need dialing in. And when you're always doing something different, you can't dial things in. The overall quality goes down.

It's the cultish craft beer drinker community wanting NEW NEW NEW while also bitching about bad beer shooting themselves in the foot.

 

[njviking]

So, when will the bubble burst and why?

Everything is finite and it will burst at some point.

I go to breweries all the time (travel a lot) and most are passable, some terrific and some are utter garbage. ( Just like most industries) .

I see this industry getting gimmicky real quick. I realize you need to be fresh in approaches to gain market share; but will you be able to retain? I might try a vegan milkshake , lemongrass, anjeo pepper, tumeric pilsner finished in oak nail barrels. Hell I might even like it; but how many would and how many will buy again and again.Would said beer be your go to? Then to be ahead of the curve you get more gimmiky. When is it still called beer ?

On the flip side; how many Ipa's from every brewery taste the same? Looking at my local beer place I see Bells, Founders, Lagunitas, Shipyard, Cigar City, Sierra Nevada, Firestone, Oscar Blues, Stone, Visctory, Elusain, Descuttes, Troegs, Terripan, etc etc etc...

They all have basically a 3c, amarillo, simcoe, citra, Ipa offering. So why am I inclined to choose one over the other.

I dunno, but something will give sooner or later.

 

[Qhrumphf]

So, when will the bubble burst and why?

Everything is finite and it will burst at some point.

I go to breweries all the time (travel a lot) and most are passable, some terrific and some are utter garbage. ( Just like most industries) .

I see this industry getting gimmicky real quick. I realize you need to be fresh in approaches to gain market share; but will you be able to retain? I might try a vegan milkshake , lemongrass, anjeo pepper, tumeric pilsner finished in oak nail barrels. Hell I might even like it; but how many would and how many will buy again and again.Would said beer be your go to? Then to be ahead of the curve you get more gimmiky. When is it still called beer ?

On the flip side; how many Ipa's from every brewery taste the same? Looking at my local beer place I see Bells, Founders, Lagunitas, Shipyard, Cigar City, Sierra Nevada, Firestone, Oscar Blues, Stone, Visctory, Elusain, Descuttes, Troegs, Terripan, etc etc etc...

They all have basically a 3c, amarillo, simcoe, citra, Ipa offering. So why am I inclined to choose one over the other.

I dunno, but something will give sooner or later.

The problem here is the average homebrewer and average craft drinker tend to diverge. To many craft drinkers there simply is no "go to" any more, regardless of how good it is. They already tried it. Why would they drink it again? But as has been mentioned already (maybe not in this thread) the increasing prevalence of 1 gallon brewers shows the same general trend in thought (obviously that can't be applied completely to everyone).

 

[grampamark]

They all have basically a 3c, amarillo, simcoe, citra, Ipa offering. So why am I inclined to choose one over the other.

Bud Light, Coors Light and Miller Lite started out as Budweiser, Coors Banquet and Miller High Life. Miller was the first to figure out that by reducing the fermentables by 20% they could produce a 4% ABV beer instead of a 5% beer, promote the hell out of it, and sell millions of gallons of water a year for the price of beer. Coors and A/B soon followed suit and also created massive ad campaigns to promote what was, essentially, watered down beer. Forty years into the Light Beer Era, those three brands still outsell everybody else by a wide margin, despite the fact that, in blind taste tests, light beer is pretty much light beer, regardless of the name on the label.

At some point, craft brewers are going to discover marketing, stop relying on word of mouth and hipsters looking for white whales, and someone will break away from the pack. Will that result in a massive shakeout in the craft beer segment? Maybe. OTOH, there might always be enough stubborn, independent thinkers, who like the idea of "drinking local", that there will always be a market for small scale, locally produced, thoroughly average beers. Time will tell.

 

[mscroggi]

I'd be surprised if national statistics actually support the proposition.
Around here new craft-centric venues are still popping up.

Restaurants come and go, but nobody is claiming the restaurant business is on the wane...

Cheers!

+1.. There is no doubt that the market is 'maturing'. It is definitely expected. The growth is definitely slowing down as the markets saturate... The last 'boom' we had was in the mid 80's.. Up until then we were down to 105 breweries in the US.. That boom wasn't anything close to the size of the boom we are in now. It wasn't too long after that boom that the behemoths managed to crush the smaller brewers with huge money, powerful lobby, and questionable business practices. At least this time around, there is a growing amount of reform to protect the independents, and allow them to survive.

Want to see some interesting data? look at this - https://goo.gl/m31rZn

7,154 Open breweries in the US with 1,265 planned. Some of the areas are "catching up" to other states since some local laws have changed for them, allowing them to be viable. I live in Texas.. We are having one of the biggest booms of all the states. We currently rank 7th in the nation with open breweries (297) and we lead the nation with 148 in the planning stages. I have seen several breweries in the area close, but many more come online. Here, there has to be a choice made due to the laws (for now). You can be a brewery and sell to a distributor (and have no control how, or if your beer is sold), or you can be a brewpub and sell locally and in a tap room (but with less growth support and less beer volume). This can be difficult for the new breweries to manage.

Just like @day_trippr mentioned, it seems like a fluid market where small scale breweries can popup and go away quickly, just like the food business. It seems to be doing pretty well to me.

 

[Qhrumphf]

they could produce a 4% ABV beer

3.89% (or so). 4.2% on the package, minus wiggle room allowed by TTB minus margin of error of equipment. They dilute to it so they can be really precise in their "imprecision" and waste exactly zero% on fermentables they aren't required to by law.

Or so the conspiracy theory goes.

 

[bobeer]

I'm seeing the "sister breweries" affecting the local "mom and pop" breweries. Stone and Sierra Nevada are 2 that come to mind off hand. We all love Stone and SN but stay on the west coast, please. We already get your beer here on the east coast, and our own beer industry is booming (finally!) and then bam. These 2 beer giants move in. Every beer drinker here was stoked except the smaller, and much much smaller, local breweries. IDK how this plays into the bubble bursting but figured it was worth a mention! Sort of reminds me of Walmart coming to down and putting everyone else out of business.

 

[njviking]

The problem here is the average homebrewer and average craft drinker tend to diverge. To many craft drinkers there simply is no "go to" any more, regardless of how good it is. They already tried it. Why would they drink it again? But as has been mentioned already (maybe not in this thread) the increasing prevalence of 1 gallon brewers shows the same general trend in thought (obviously that can't be applied completely to everyone).

Very true. The fall out then is a brewer faces a no win situation.How can you market one off brews and sell them at a normal pint price point. Seems said brewers are paintin themselves into a corner and catering to a tiny niche inside an already small niche.

Speaking of that; one more thing to contemplate.

So 80% of beer consumed here in the states is from a bmc brewery. 20% is craft. Yet most craft breweries I go to do not try to get to the 80% market by offering a "cfraft bmc" type of beer? Seems to me that would be a market segment worth exploring.

Now I know most brewers don't have a miller lite clone as their top priority, but a nice light lager or ale should suffice. I do see attempts from brewers to do this sometimes leading into some sort of kolsch, heavy continental pilsner, or a blonde ale. I like them but when I take out clients, there are generally mixed responses leading us to a regular bar so they can have their favorite adjunct lager.

 

[mscroggi]

So 80% of beer consumed here in the states is from a bmc brewery. 20% is craft. Yet most craft breweries I go to do not try to get to the 80% market by offering a "cfraft bmc" type of beer? Seems to me that would be a market segment worth exploring.
.

It isn't anywhere near that simple.. The brewers are obligated by law to sell to a distributor. The distributors are largely controlled by the behemoths, and protected by the ridiculous laws, and big money. Once a brewer signs with a distributor, he has no controls about how much, or even if, his beer is sold. The distributors even stock the shelves in the grocery stores themselves. Walk into a Walmart and look at the 80 foot long cooler stuffed almost completely with Budweiser brands. Then look at the 12 foot un-refrigerated shelf that has a half dozen other brands.

In 2016, Budweiser offered an 'incentive plan' (AKA a kickback) if the distributors would push InBev beers. The independent distributors aligned with AB InBev are contractually required to spend a certain amount each year to advertise AB InBev beers. AB InBev promised to refund 75 percent of this money if its beers make up 98 percent of the distributor’s sales. A distributor that would want to promote a craft beer would be also required to run an equal promotion for Budweiser, which becomes prohibitively expensive.

The deck is extremely tilted towards the corporate beer voltrons.

 

[jonny24]

So 80% of beer consumed here in the states is from a bmc brewery. 20% is craft. Yet most craft breweries I go to do not try to get to the 80% market by offering a "cfraft bmc" type of beer? Seems to me that would be a market segment worth exploring.

Now I know most brewers don't have a miller lite clone as their top priority, but a nice light lager or ale should suffice. I do see attempts from brewers to do this sometimes leading into some sort of kolsch, heavy continental pilsner, or a blonde ale. I like them but when I take out clients, there are generally mixed responses leading us to a regular bar so they can have their favorite adjunct lager.

I think most places do that around here. Usually a Pilsner/Lager/Golden Ale. Beau's Lug Tread is one of the most ubiquitous craft beers in Ontario, and it's a Kolsch marketed as a Lagered Ale. A lot of wheat beers fall into this "easy drinking" category too.

3.89% (or so). 4.2% on the package, minus wiggle room allowed by TTB minus margin of error of equipment. They dilute to it so they can be really precise in their "imprecision" and waste exactly zero% on fermentables they aren't required to by law.

Or so the conspiracy theory goes.

Isn't the alcohol %age a minimum content?

 

[Qhrumphf]

I think most places do that around here. Usually a Pilsner/Lager/Golden Ale. Beau's Lug Tread is one of the most ubiquitous craft beers in Ontario, and it's a Kolsch marketed as a Lagered Ale. A lot of wheat beers fall into this "easy drinking" category too.



Isn't the alcohol %age a minimum content?

Negative.

Serving a beer that's above listed ABV is equally as problematic as under the listed ABV. Especially when it comes to public intoxication and the like. A customer could blame the manufacturer in that case for being drunker than intended.

You're allowed a buffer on either side. TTB (federal) i believe is +/- 0.25% of what's on the label. States often have their own, most are less stringent. VA I think is +/- 0.5%. As long as beer never crosses state lines, only state law matters (in-state only doesn't require TTB label approval at all unless the state itself says otherwise). Once it's distroed out of state I presume it's whichever is strictest.

AB InBev was sued for misleading customers about alcohol content. I don't think it ever went any where. I know they denied it. The case was pretty weak.

 

[mscroggi]

It isn't anywhere near that simple.. The brewers are obligated by law to sell to a distributor. The distributors are largely controlled by the behemoths, and protected by the ridiculous laws, and big money. Once a brewer signs with a distributor, he has no controls about how much, or even if, his beer is sold. The distributors even stock the shelves in the grocery stores themselves. Walk into a Walmart and look at the 80 foot long cooler stuffed almost completely with Budweiser brands. Then look at the 12 foot un-refrigerated shelf that has a half dozen other brands.

In 2016, Budweiser offered an 'incentive plan' (AKA a kickback) if the distributors would push InBev beers. The independent distributors aligned with AB InBev are contractually required to spend a certain amount each year to advertise AB InBev beers. AB InBev promised to refund 75 percent of this money if its beers make up 98 percent of the distributor’s sales. A distributor that would want to promote a craft beer would be also required to run an equal promotion for Budweiser, which becomes prohibitively expensive.

The deck is extremely tilted towards the corporate beer voltrons.

Ah my apologies, I just realized I mis-understood the original point by njviking, which is why don't the craft brewers brew a beer similar to the big volume rice beers. I live in the hot, deep south where there are quite a few lighter lagers made.. so around here, there are some lighter beers that would appease the bud / miller fans. I assume that the cooler the climates up north, would likely produce less of the lighter lagers.

 

[Jayjay1976]

I think most places do that around here. Usually a Pilsner/Lager/Golden Ale. Beau's Lug Tread is one of the most ubiquitous craft beers in Ontario, and it's a Kolsch marketed as a Lagered Ale. A lot of wheat beers fall into this "easy drinking" category too.



Isn't the alcohol %age a minimum content?

I tried Beau's Lug Tread once when I was in western New York, it was an exquisite example of how full of flavor and character a lighter-bodied beer can be. It didn't remind me of Kölsch I've had in Germany, it had a more pronounced malt profile and a graham-like flavor. One hell of a standout in my beer memory considering I only had one.

I attempted a clone but didn't quite nail the characteristic flavor.